ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Contrarians appear to sell US Dollar and buy sugar
Highlights
US$6.7mn inflows into short USD long EUR ETPs as investors place contrarian trades.
Gold outflows resumed after two weeks of inflow.
Falling sugar prices draw out potential bargain-hunters.
US$6.7mn inflows into short USD long EUR ETPs as investors place contrarian trades. In a week where US 10-year Treasury yield temporarily rose above 3% for the first time since 2014, which unleashed pent-up US Dollar strength, ETP investors appeared to take on a contrarian trade. The US Dollar basket rose 1.4% with particular strength against the Euro (1.6%). The Euro depreciated the most on Thursday following acknowledgment from the European Central Bank (ECB) that economic data has been weak in the recent past and that economic developments will need to be closely watched during Q2. While Mario Draghi, the ECB’s President, offered balance in comments highlighting that weakness could be due to temporary factors and come in the shadow of a strong spurt of growth at the end of 2017, the overall tone was judged by the market to be dovish. ETP investors however, appear positioned the Euro to reverse the depreciation seen last week.
Gold outflows resumed after two weeks of inflows. Rising Treasury yields and an appreciating US Dollar drove gold prices 1.1% lower and led to US$23.1 outflows from gold ETPs. That brings a break to several weeks of inflows, when gold had seen support from rising geopolitical risk. A historic summit between North Korea and South Korea last week led to an accord to completely “cease all hostile acts against each other” and work on denuclearising the Korean peninsula. That has taken some of the geopolitical premium off gold.
Falling sugar prices draw out potential bargain-hunters. Last week’s inflows of US$8.9mn into long sugar ETPs were the largest since January 2015. Sugar prices have tumbled 23% since the beginning of the year with global sugar markets amply supplied. With the EU having lifted its export quotas on sugar last year and plenty of supply coming from the major raw cane sugar producers like Brazil and India, sugar has come under pressure. However, as we switch over to the 2018/19 season, some speculate that more cane will be diverted to ethanol production in Brazil, amid higher oil prices (ethanol is alternative fuel in Brazil, with most cars able to consume either gasoline or ethanol). That could leave less cane available for sugar and potentially higher prices.
Outflows from platinum and palladium ETPs follow weak car sales. Platinum ETPs had outflows of US$7.1mn while palladium ETPs had outflows of US$10.6mn. Both metals are used in autocatalysts and so are sensitive to auto sales. European passenger car sales declined 5.3% y-o-y in March 2018 (marking the first fall in March since 2014) and commercial vehicles fell 2.5% y-o-y in March 2018.
Important Information
General
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
Nasdaq 100-indexet följer de 100 största aktierna noterade på Nasdaq-börsen. De utvalda företagen kommer huvudsakligen från sektorer som hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel och bioteknik – inklusive alla stora amerikanska teknikföretag. Däremot ingår inte företag från energi-, finans- och fastighetssektorerna i Nasdaq-100. Vilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?
I USA har den populära QQQ ETF, som spårar Nasdaq 100, varit tillgänglig sedan 1999. Den förvaltas av Invesco. Den europeiska motsvarigheten till denna ETF använder tickersymbolen eQQQ. Till skillnad från den amerikanska marknaden finns det dock flera ETF-leverantörer i Europa som spårar Nasdaq 100 – så det är värt att jämföra.
ETF-investerare kan dra nytta av värdeökningar och utdelningar från Nasdaq 100-beståndsdelarna. För närvarande spåras Nasdaq 100-indexet av tretton ETFer.
Förvaltningsarvode fond som följer Nasdaq-100
Nedan har vi listat förvaltningsarvoden för fond som följer Nasdaq-100. Samtliga dessa ETFer har en konkurrenskraftig prissättning, allt från AXA IM Nasdaq 100 UCITSETF USD Acc, som debiterar sina andelsägare 0,14 procent per år till iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITSETF (Acc) som tar ut 0,33 procent i arvode. I jämförelse kostar de flesta aktivt förvaltade fonder mycket mer avgifter per år.
Som alltid vill vi påminna att om det finns flera olika börshandlade fonder som täcker samma index eller segment är det förvaltningskostnaden som avgör. Antar vi att dessa Nasdaqfonder ger samma avkastning kommer den som har lägst avgift att utvecklas bäst, allt annat lika. Grundregeln är alltså, betala aldrig för mycket då detta kommer att äta upp din avkastning.
Nasdaq 100 ETFer i jämförelse
Förutom avkastning finns det ytterligare viktiga faktorer att tänka på när du väljer en Nasdaq 100 ETF. För att ge ett bra beslutsunderlag hittar du en lista över alla Nasdaq 100 ETFer med detaljer om vinstanvändning, fondens hemvist och replikeringsmetod.
Samtliga dessa ETFer är europeiska börshandlade fonder. Dessa fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
India’s vibrant economy and structural growth opportunities continue to be the envy of many emerging markets. But somewhat unique to this market are tax implications that investors should be aware of. Our Franklin Templeton Global ETF team examines these structural issues in Asia’s third-largest economy.
In merely a decade, India has taken a quantum leap from the world’s 11th largest economy to become its fifth largest. By many accounts, it is expected to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies over the coming years. And even after a banner 2023 during which the country’s benchmark indexes surged and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated high-profile successes—from historic technological and space exploration achievements to rising global diplomatic clout—this election year has already marked more progress in supporting Modi’s pro-growth, pro-jobs efforts.
The world’s most populous nation has advanced ties with Western countries over free trade. In addition to agreements with Australia and the United Arab Emirates, it has worked to better integrate the “Global South’s” development needs and ambitions with that of the G20. Modi has touted innovative partnerships for a new multilateral rail and sea corridor to connect India with the Middle East and the European Union (EU)—seen as a counterweight to China’s vast Belt-and-Road infrastructure corridor.
India reached its latest notable trade pact, nearly 16 years in the making, in March with the European Free Trade Association—Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. The agreement lifts Indian tariffs to secure US$100 billion in foreign direct investment commitments from the non-EU markets to India across multiple sectors.
With India still an enviable investment powerhouse, it seems important to clarify a few aspects of this dynamic equity market.
How exchange-traded funds (ETFs) treat India capital gains tax (CGT)
Foreign investors should be aware that CGT is an integral part of investing in Indian equities that cannot be circumvented. Investors in India funds are subject to CGT implications regardless of fund provider, and CGT is based and calculated on a fund as a whole, not an individual investor’s position.
The details: Foreign investors owning local Indian stocks are subject to taxation on capital gains at a short-term rate of 15% for positions held for less than one year and at a long-term rate of 10% for positions held over one year.
To accrue or not to accrue: Consistent with market practice for US-listed India ETF providers, Franklin Templeton accrues unrealized CGT in its daily net asset value (NAV). This can lead to differences in performance relative to the benchmark, which does not include CGT. As a result, rising markets will typically lead to fund underperformance against a benchmark, while weaker market environments will typically generate outperformance (provided the fund is in an unrealized capital gain position where the current market value of fund holdings is above their historical book cost). See chart below.
For UCITS-listed India funds, there is a divergence in methods utilized by fund providers in accruing and reporting CGT. Some do not accrue unrealized CGT in the NAV, but will charge CGT to investors directly at redemption, which we believe leaves investors with a level of opaqueness and uncertainty over their ultimate proceeds. This method also creates an elevated NAV compared to what investors will actually experience. While Franklin Templeton’s approach to CGT may at times lead to a higher tracking difference,1 we believe investors benefit from increased transparency and a more reflective experience.
The magnitude and impact of CGT for a specific fund is heavily dependent on several variables, such as the timing of purchases and sales, performance of the holdings and their volatility, and the size of flows in and out of the fund relative to its assets under management (AUM).
Understanding the impact: The CGT impact to fund performance is driven by the path of returns, timing of individual lots and price points. Very broadly speaking, in rising markets, an NAV-accruing fund will likely underperform its benchmark and vice versa.
Consideration of comparability: Because different providers handle CGT differently, the comparability of fund performance metrics may be affected. As investors, it’s prudent to consider how these nuances may influence investment decisions within the broader context of your financial strategy.
The bigger picture: While CGT considerations are important, they should be viewed within the broader spectrum of investment objectives and risk tolerance. Taking a long-term perspective and being mindful of other important characteristics of the investment vehicle of choice may aid in the decision-making process.
In summary, India remains an attractive investment destination with compelling growth prospects for its equity markets. Investors seeking India allocation through an ETF should be aware of the current tax regime and what varying methods of accounting methodologies really mean for fund valuation.
Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D (XB33 ETF) med ISIN LU2673523564, försöker följa Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller mellan oktober 2032 och september 2033 i indexet (ETF kommer att stängas i efterhand). Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,12 procent p.a. Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF 1D är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Minst årligen).
Denna ETF lanserades den 8 november 2023 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.
Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate SRI PAB Index syftar till att spegla resultatet på följande marknad:
Minsta utestående belopp på 300 miljoner euro per obligation
Endast obligationer utgivna av företag med en MSCI ESG-rating på BBB eller högre och en MSCI ESG Impact Monitor över 1 ingår
Indexet övervakar absoluta växthusgasutsläpp (“GHG”) genom att sätta en initial 50 % avkolning av absoluta växthusgasutsläpp i förhållande till moderuniversumet följt av en årlig 7 % avkolningsbana för absoluta växthusgasutsläpp.
Obligationer utgivna av företag som är involverade i alkohol, tobak, hasardspel, vuxenunderhållning, genetiskt modifierade organismer (GMO), kärnkraft, civila skjutvapen, militära vapen (inklusive minor, klusterbomber, kemiska vapen) är undantagna.
Handla XB33 ETF
Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF 1D (XB33 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.