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Coffee offers upside potential in a depressed soft commodity market

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Coffee offers upside potential in a depressed soft commodity market Soft commodities are skirting close to their decade-lows set in 2015

ETF Securities Commodity Research – Coffee offers upside potential in a depressed soft commodity market

Summary

  • Soft commodities are skirting close to their decade-lows set in 2015
  • Apart from Arabica coffee, softs are likely to remain in the doldrums
  • Cane sugar production is high and competition from EU beet sugar will intensify
  • In the absence of a meaningful weather disruption, cocoa production will remain strong

Arabica coffee

Brazil – which accounts for about 45% of global Arabica coffee output – has just completed its 2017/18 harvest. While output was always expected to be lower than last year due to the biennial cycles present in the country, production fell significantly short due to poor weather. Output is likely to be more than 20% below 2016/17 for Brazil (-9 million 60kg bags). Hopes for a rebound in the 2018/19 coffee crop in Brazil have become dimmer as a lack of rain has hampered the flowering of coffee bushes. Although rain has now commenced, it is late and development of new nodes on coffee bushes are likely to remain inadequate.

Mexico and Central America (20% of global production) have commenced their 2017/18 harvest. So far the output from the region looks strong and we could see a 1 million bag increase in production (6%). Production in Mexico Honduras and Nicaragua seems to have improved after years of coffee leaf rust problems, although El Salvador, Guatemala, and Costa Rica are still suffering from this fungus which reduces coffee yields.

Colombia (15% of global production) is likely remain close to last year’s levels which was at a decade high. There has been 30% growth in Colombian production over the past 10 years.

Despite strong production elsewhere, a decline in Brazilian output and weakening prospects for the country this year could act as a catalyst for prices. While in previous years, Brazil has been able to sell abundant stocks from prior years during poor harvests, its stocks have fallen significantly and supply tightness will likely be felt this year.

Brazil: September 2017 rainfall (departure from average 1961-1990 levels)

Sugar

We are likely to end two years of supply deficits this year. Brazil, the largest producer of cane (22% of global production) has seen close to 6% year on year growth in sugar production in the season so far. It’s not that more sugar cane has been cultivated this year, but that more cane has been diverted to sugar production instead of ethanol production. With oil prices trading below US$60/bbl we are unlikely to see a pickup in ethanol production (ethanol is an alternative car fuel in Brazil).

India, the second largest producer of cane sugar (15%) has received heavy rainfall in recent weeks, helping to fill its reservoirs. Although the monsoon rains appeared to have slowed prematurely several weeks ago, rain came back vigorously, leaving the season’s rainfall close to normal levels. Both the area of planting and sugar yield are expected to rise increasing production by more than 15%.

Thailand, has also experienced a good monsoon season which will help it raise its cane sugar production by over 10%.

The European Union is a producer of beet sugar rather than cane sugar. However, the abolition of production and export quotas from the EU this month will mean that there will be more beet sugar available to compete with cane sugar. The EU projects that by 2026 EU sugar production will rise by 6% over 2016 levels. That appears to be an overly conservative estimate. The USDA’s EU office projects EU sugar production to rise 20% in 2017/18 alone, surpassing the 2014/15 high, while exports will rise by a third.

Under such strong supply growth, we don’t see sugar prices making a recovery.

Cocoa

The 2016/17 cocoa year has just completed with an 18% growth in production over the previous year. Milder Harmattan winds this year have significantly reduced crop damage in Africa (where 70% of the world’s cocoa comes from). Stocks have risen 26% over the year, increasing the stocks to grinding ratio from 34% in 2015/16 to 42% in 2016/17.

The main crop harvests commence this month in the largest producing countries (Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana). Weather conditions have so far been perfect indicating we are likely to see another surplus year in 2017/18.
On the demand side, grinding data has been stagnant. Despite weak prices, confectionary companies don’t appear to have reversed the thrifting of cocoa they pursued in previous years when prices were higher.

La Niña risks

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has increased its probability of a La Niña weather pattern emerging this northern hemisphere winter to 55-60%. However, if the event occurs it is unlikely to change our view of price direction considerably. The weather pattern is likely to be weak if it emerges at all. If anything we expect that dryness in Brazil will continue to hamper the flowering and budding process for coffee (which will continue to be price positive).Dryness in Brazil could promote the gains in sucrose content of cane if accompanied by more sunlight, raising the yield for Brazilian sugar (remaining price negative).

Coolness in West Africa could reduce heat damage, helping to sustain high yields (price negative). But we caution that previous La Ninas have not consistently been production-positive for the crop. According to the International Cocoa Organisation, while El Niños have a statistically significant positive effect on output, La Niña’s positive effects on output fail to be statistically significant.

For more information contact:

Catarina Donat Marques
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 20 7448 4386
E catarina.donatmarques@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

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Playing the AI revolution through commodities and gold’s curious rally

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“A single search query on Chat GPT consumes around 1500% more energy than a simple search google search. The overall energy amounts are marginal on their own. Even taken in aggregate, it is a blip in terms of total global energy demand. However, it is illustrative of the potential big increases in electricity demand that will come from the AI revolution.

“A single search query on Chat GPT consumes around 1500% more energy than a simple search google search. The overall energy amounts are marginal on their own. Even taken in aggregate, it is a blip in terms of total global energy demand. However, it is illustrative of the potential big increases in electricity demand that will come from the AI revolution.

“Over the past 20 years, the US has seen its electricity demand stagnate. While its economy has grown, it has been able to avoid the need to add electricity generation thanks to efficiency savings. But this is now changing, and a big reason is the boom in data centre demand, with AI datacentre demand in particular.

“For example, Virginia has one of the densest clusters of data centres in the US. Dominion, the utility company servicing the state, had previously forecast net energy to increase by 2.9% between 2022 and 2037. Now they forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 4.4% between 2023 and 2028, principally due to energy demand from data centres. Similar patterns can be expected across the country.

“So, while many investors are chasing the AI theme through exposure to tech stocks, especially through big names such as Microsoft, it is also worth highlighting the materials or commodity angle — a literal picks and shovels approach.

“Nuclear energy will provide a key role in supplying the electricity for this expected boom in electricity demand, particularly given its zero-carbon credentials. We’ve already seen Amazon purchase a data centre situated next to a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania for Amazon Web Services.

“With more nuclear energy generation, uranium will see greater demand. The uranium market is already tight with forecast deficits of supply vs demand. Primary uranium mine supply is significantly trailing demand, with a cumulative forecasted supply shortfall of approximately 1.5 billion pounds by 2040. This added component will put more pressure on the uranium price, to the benefit of the miners.

“But generating electricity is only one part of the story. At the same time, getting the electricity generated by nuclear energy to the end user requires transmission. That requires a lot of copper. A build of new data centres will require a buildout of copper-intensive transmission lines.

“As with uranium, the copper market is facing a supply deficit. Copper will be a key metal in the energy transition, with 2.5x more copper wiring in an EV vs a conventional car, while solar panels and wind turbines require grid expansions and upgrades. The additional demand for copper from the AI revolution and data centre build up simply adds to this.”

HANetf is the issuer of the Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (U3O8), Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (U8NJ) and the Sprott Copper Miners ESG-Screened UCITS ETF (ASWD).

Gold’s curious rally

“Gold has hit several new all-time-highs this year, breaching $2,431/oz. This has been driven by central bank buying, geopolitical-driven safe-haven buying, emerging market investment demand, as well as anticipation around forthcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts, albeit with declining expectations regarding the latter.

“But it is worth looking into some of these drivers themselves. Let’s start with anticipated rate cuts. Gold looks more attractive when interest rates are low or expected to be cut. Gold is a non-yielding asset, so it becomes more attractive the lower yields are on other assets such as bonds. So, with the year starting with expectations of several Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold came into focus.

“But the curious case of this year’s gold market rally is that, despite expectations around these rate cuts gradually receding, with more cautious language from the Fed and some less than positive inflation data prints, the gold rally has continued unabated.

“There are several reasons for this. First, the geopolitical climate is increasingly top of mind for investors. The war in Ukraine continues and we’ve seen a potentially dramatic escalation in the Middle East with Israel and Iran launching missile attacks on one another.

“At the same time, we’ve continued to see central banks buying gold for their reserves. This has principally, but not only, been driven by China. This is geopolitics related, as many see the Chinese central bank’s gold buying being driven by a movement among the BRICS countries towards de-dollarisation. But a key point here is that central banks are a potentially less price-sensitive buyer – their demand is driven by other strategic considerations.

“But while gold has rallied, gold ETF and ETC investors have been absent. This is not how it usually works. Inflows into gold ETFs and ETCs have historically been fairly well correlated with the gold price, but this year a gap opened up. US and European investors were selling gold while the price went up. However, latest data from the World Gold Council now shows that in March, there were slight positive inflows in gold ETFs among American investors. Europeans were still selling, but the uptick in gold ETFs in the US does potentially suggest a trend change.”

HANetf is issuer of The Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC (RM8U) and AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO).

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ETBB ETF en utdelande fond som spårar Euro Stoxx 50

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BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) med ISIN FR0012740983, strävar efter att spåra EURO STOXX® 50-index. EURO STOXX® 50-indexet följer de 50 största företagen i euroområdet.

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) med ISIN FR0012740983, strävar efter att spåra EURO STOXX® 50-index. EURO STOXX® 50-indexet följer de 50 största företagen i euroområdet.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. ETFen replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i denna ETF delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF har tillgångar på 144 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 27 juli 2015 och har sin hemvist i Frankrike.

Handla ETBB ETF

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Paris.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURETBB
Stuttgart Stock ExchangeEURETBB
Euronext ParisEURETBB
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURETBB
XETRAEURETBB

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Ny råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt

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Sedan i torsdags är en ny börshandlad fond utgiven av Legal & General Investment Management handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. Det är en råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt.

Sedan i torsdags är en ny börshandlad fond utgiven av Legal & General Investment Management handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. Det är en råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt.

L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced Commodities ex-Agriculture & Livestock UCITS ETF (XEXA) erbjuder investerare tillgång till prestanda för en korg av råvaror från energi-, industri- och ädelmetallsektorerna via terminskontrakt med olika förfallodatum. Sektorn för jordbruk och levande nötkreatur ingår inte.

ETFen är helt säkerställd. Eftersom terminskontrakt har en begränsad löptid stängs de vanligtvis före utgången och rullas över till ett nytt kontrakt med en senare löptid. Beroende på om det köpta terminskontraktet är billigare eller dyrare än det sålda terminskontraktet realiseras rullningsvinster eller rullningsförluster.

NamnISINAvgiftUtdelnings-
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Referens-
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L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced Commodities ex-Agriculture & Livestock UCITS ETFIE000MQ5XEW10,30%AckumulerandeBarclays Backwardation Tilt Multi-Strategy Ex-Agriculture & Livestock Capped TR Index

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 157 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

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