OPEC’s current strategy is not working. Oil prices have given back nearly all their gains since the cartel agreed to cut production in November 2016. We believe the credible options for their next move, to be discussed at their May 25th meeting, will be to either to cut deeper or let the deal collapse. The latter option seems the most likely outcome. OPECs choices, double down or do nothing.
As we argued in our recent outlooks, the efforts of OPEC members with assigned quotas, are being undermined by:
1. the growth in supply from the OPEC members who don’t have quotas 2. non-OPEC members participant to the deal that are not adhering to it 3. the rapid growth in supply from other countries, most notably the US
Today’s release of OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report acknowledges the extent to which supply from the US, Canada and Brazil is set to rise.
We therefore believe that repeating the same strategy for another six months will do little to shore up oil prices. OPEC nations have given up market share and have barely reaped any price gains. Given that consensus expectations are for a simple deal extension (i.e. that is what is currently priced-in), following the status quo is unlikely to be met with a positive price response. We believe that if OPEC is serious about getting the market to balance it will have to cut deeper in order to ‘shock’ the market and drive prices higher. Sacrificing volume requires higher prices.
However, gaining a consensus agreement on a bolder move will be difficult. The smaller and more financially constrained members will be reluctant to give up more volume. Saudi Arabia is vocally supportive of a deal extension. But if Iran insists on being able to increase production further while Saudi Arabia has to bear the brunt of further production cuts, the deal’s flaws will become even more accentuated. We believe that doing nothing and letting the deal collapse will be default option in the event that the cartel is unable to gain support for a deeper cut.
While OPEC surprised on the upside at its November 2016 meeting by coming to an agreement, we believe the May 25th 2017 meeting will surprise on the downside with a lack of agreement. In such event, oil prices could decline close to US$40/bbl (from US$48/bb currently), which we believe is the structural floor for oil prices, set by the breakeven price of US shale oil production.
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Nasdaq 100-indexet följer de 100 största aktierna noterade på Nasdaq-börsen. De utvalda företagen kommer huvudsakligen från sektorer som hårdvara och mjukvara, telekommunikation, detaljhandel och bioteknik – inklusive alla stora amerikanska teknikföretag. Däremot ingår inte företag från energi-, finans- och fastighetssektorerna i Nasdaq-100. Vilken är den bästa fond som följer Nasdaq-100?
I USA har den populära QQQ ETF, som spårar Nasdaq 100, varit tillgänglig sedan 1999. Den förvaltas av Invesco. Den europeiska motsvarigheten till denna ETF använder tickersymbolen eQQQ. Till skillnad från den amerikanska marknaden finns det dock flera ETF-leverantörer i Europa som spårar Nasdaq 100 – så det är värt att jämföra.
ETF-investerare kan dra nytta av värdeökningar och utdelningar från Nasdaq 100-beståndsdelarna. För närvarande spåras Nasdaq 100-indexet av tretton ETFer.
Förvaltningsarvode fond som följer Nasdaq-100
Nedan har vi listat förvaltningsarvoden för fond som följer Nasdaq-100. Samtliga dessa ETFer har en konkurrenskraftig prissättning, allt från AXA IM Nasdaq 100 UCITSETF USD Acc, som debiterar sina andelsägare 0,14 procent per år till iShares Nasdaq 100 UCITSETF (Acc) som tar ut 0,33 procent i arvode. I jämförelse kostar de flesta aktivt förvaltade fonder mycket mer avgifter per år.
Som alltid vill vi påminna att om det finns flera olika börshandlade fonder som täcker samma index eller segment är det förvaltningskostnaden som avgör. Antar vi att dessa Nasdaqfonder ger samma avkastning kommer den som har lägst avgift att utvecklas bäst, allt annat lika. Grundregeln är alltså, betala aldrig för mycket då detta kommer att äta upp din avkastning.
Nasdaq 100 ETFer i jämförelse
Förutom avkastning finns det ytterligare viktiga faktorer att tänka på när du väljer en Nasdaq 100 ETF. För att ge ett bra beslutsunderlag hittar du en lista över alla Nasdaq 100 ETFer med detaljer om vinstanvändning, fondens hemvist och replikeringsmetod.
Samtliga dessa ETFer är europeiska börshandlade fonder. Dessa fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och London Stock Exchange.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.
India’s vibrant economy and structural growth opportunities continue to be the envy of many emerging markets. But somewhat unique to this market are tax implications that investors should be aware of. Our Franklin Templeton Global ETF team examines these structural issues in Asia’s third-largest economy.
In merely a decade, India has taken a quantum leap from the world’s 11th largest economy to become its fifth largest. By many accounts, it is expected to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies over the coming years. And even after a banner 2023 during which the country’s benchmark indexes surged and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi celebrated high-profile successes—from historic technological and space exploration achievements to rising global diplomatic clout—this election year has already marked more progress in supporting Modi’s pro-growth, pro-jobs efforts.
The world’s most populous nation has advanced ties with Western countries over free trade. In addition to agreements with Australia and the United Arab Emirates, it has worked to better integrate the “Global South’s” development needs and ambitions with that of the G20. Modi has touted innovative partnerships for a new multilateral rail and sea corridor to connect India with the Middle East and the European Union (EU)—seen as a counterweight to China’s vast Belt-and-Road infrastructure corridor.
India reached its latest notable trade pact, nearly 16 years in the making, in March with the European Free Trade Association—Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. The agreement lifts Indian tariffs to secure US$100 billion in foreign direct investment commitments from the non-EU markets to India across multiple sectors.
With India still an enviable investment powerhouse, it seems important to clarify a few aspects of this dynamic equity market.
How exchange-traded funds (ETFs) treat India capital gains tax (CGT)
Foreign investors should be aware that CGT is an integral part of investing in Indian equities that cannot be circumvented. Investors in India funds are subject to CGT implications regardless of fund provider, and CGT is based and calculated on a fund as a whole, not an individual investor’s position.
The details: Foreign investors owning local Indian stocks are subject to taxation on capital gains at a short-term rate of 15% for positions held for less than one year and at a long-term rate of 10% for positions held over one year.
To accrue or not to accrue: Consistent with market practice for US-listed India ETF providers, Franklin Templeton accrues unrealized CGT in its daily net asset value (NAV). This can lead to differences in performance relative to the benchmark, which does not include CGT. As a result, rising markets will typically lead to fund underperformance against a benchmark, while weaker market environments will typically generate outperformance (provided the fund is in an unrealized capital gain position where the current market value of fund holdings is above their historical book cost). See chart below.
For UCITS-listed India funds, there is a divergence in methods utilized by fund providers in accruing and reporting CGT. Some do not accrue unrealized CGT in the NAV, but will charge CGT to investors directly at redemption, which we believe leaves investors with a level of opaqueness and uncertainty over their ultimate proceeds. This method also creates an elevated NAV compared to what investors will actually experience. While Franklin Templeton’s approach to CGT may at times lead to a higher tracking difference,1 we believe investors benefit from increased transparency and a more reflective experience.
The magnitude and impact of CGT for a specific fund is heavily dependent on several variables, such as the timing of purchases and sales, performance of the holdings and their volatility, and the size of flows in and out of the fund relative to its assets under management (AUM).
Understanding the impact: The CGT impact to fund performance is driven by the path of returns, timing of individual lots and price points. Very broadly speaking, in rising markets, an NAV-accruing fund will likely underperform its benchmark and vice versa.
Consideration of comparability: Because different providers handle CGT differently, the comparability of fund performance metrics may be affected. As investors, it’s prudent to consider how these nuances may influence investment decisions within the broader context of your financial strategy.
The bigger picture: While CGT considerations are important, they should be viewed within the broader spectrum of investment objectives and risk tolerance. Taking a long-term perspective and being mindful of other important characteristics of the investment vehicle of choice may aid in the decision-making process.
In summary, India remains an attractive investment destination with compelling growth prospects for its equity markets. Investors seeking India allocation through an ETF should be aware of the current tax regime and what varying methods of accounting methodologies really mean for fund valuation.
Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D (XB33 ETF) med ISIN LU2673523564, försöker följa Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller mellan oktober 2032 och september 2033 i indexet (ETF kommer att stängas i efterhand). Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade.
Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,12 procent p.a. Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF 1D är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Minst årligen).
Denna ETF lanserades den 8 november 2023 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.
Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate SRI PAB Index syftar till att spegla resultatet på följande marknad:
Minsta utestående belopp på 300 miljoner euro per obligation
Endast obligationer utgivna av företag med en MSCI ESG-rating på BBB eller högre och en MSCI ESG Impact Monitor över 1 ingår
Indexet övervakar absoluta växthusgasutsläpp (“GHG”) genom att sätta en initial 50 % avkolning av absoluta växthusgasutsläpp i förhållande till moderuniversumet följt av en årlig 7 % avkolningsbana för absoluta växthusgasutsläpp.
Obligationer utgivna av företag som är involverade i alkohol, tobak, hasardspel, vuxenunderhållning, genetiskt modifierade organismer (GMO), kärnkraft, civila skjutvapen, militära vapen (inklusive minor, klusterbomber, kemiska vapen) är undantagna.
Handla XB33 ETF
Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITSETF 1D (XB33 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra.
Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRO, Nordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.