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Short sugar and coffee

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Short sugar and coffee The abolition of the sugar production quota in Europe next October will weigh on global prices.

ETF Securities Commodity Research Short sugar and coffee

Highlights

  • Speculative positioning in both sugar and coffee appear over-extended.
  • Brazil’s sugar production has risen and a healthy monsoon in India paves the way for a partial recovery in cane production.
  • The abolition of the sugar production quota in Europe next October will weigh on global prices.
  • Brazilian Arabica coffee output hit an all-time high in 2016, but prices rose as a result of Brazilian Real appreciation.
  • With La Niña potentially back on the cards and weather in Brazil remaining favourable, the next season’s Arabica crop may surprise on the upside.

Sugar rally to run out of steam

Sugar has gained over 80% since February 2016 as the market is expected to have entered a second consecutive year of a production deficit. Prices are now trading at a 5-year high.

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The futures market has become very bullish. Net long positioning in the futures market hit an all-time high a few weeks ago and remains more than 2 standard deviations above its 5-year historic average.

We believe that this optimism is overdone. Sugar production in Brazil, which produces close to 25% of global output, is running close to 20% higher than last year. While there is some fear that the season could be cut short, we believe that higher prices will encourage mills to continue production. Indeed, the cane harvest, which is close to 70% complete, is also running 10% ahead of last year. Moreover, with sugar prices this high and weakness in oil prices, more cane could be diverted to sugar production over ethanol production.

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India, the second largest producer of sugar, has received normal levels of rain this monsoon in contrast to the previous year’s failed monsoon. Reservoir levels have filled to around 75% as of October 20th, which is exactly in line with the 10-year average for this time of the year (and 128% of the corresponding period last year). Reservoir levels in the key cane producing areas was even higher. With most cane in India being irrigated, availability of reservoir water will be important for the following season.

EU to scrap sugar beet production quota

The EU is set to abolish its sugar beet production quota in October 2017. While the ICE Sugar No. 11 futures contract is based on the delivery of raw cane sugar, the greater availability of a close substitute could impact its price. Although the EU will eliminate quotas on production of sugar beet, it is not set to change tariffs on the import of raw cane sugar. Refiners in the EU are therefore more likely to use domestic beet for sugar production. While this is more of a concern for next year, prices of raw cane sugar could begin to weaken in advance.

Arabica price rises despite Brazilian production increase

Arabica coffee prices have risen close to 40% since January and speculative positioning is over 1 standard deviation above historic average.

Brazil dominates Arabica coffee production and has a significant influence on the price of the commodity.

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2016 Arabica coffee output from Brazil was the highest on record despite the fears that El Niño would hamper production. The Arabica harvest in Brazil was largely complete in September.

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As the chart above indicates, coffee output in Brazil goes through biennial cycles: production rises in one year and falls in the next. The 2016 coffee crop in Brazil was a high year in the biennial cycle and 2017 will be a low year. Some of the recent price gains may reflect that we are about to enter a cyclical low year, but we caution that the pattern does not always hold (for example between 2012 and 2013).

We believe that more of the gains were driven by an appreciating Brazilian Real. The Real appreciated on the back of an impeachment of the Brazilian President. Barring any positive economic shock, we believe that most of the positive news for the Real is priced-in.

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Potential for favourable weather

Weather conditions may have turned favourable for production in Brazil. Currently rain is progressing well in the south east of Brazil (where close to 90% of its Arabica is grown). That is important during the critical ‘flowering’ process. The amount of flowering determines how much coffee cherries will develop on each coffee bush.

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Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

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XB33 ETF köper företagsobligationer i euro som förfaller 2033

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Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D (XB33 ETF) med ISIN LU2673523564, försöker följa Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller mellan oktober 2032 och september 2033 i indexet (ETF kommer att stängas i efterhand). Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade.

Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D (XB33 ETF) med ISIN LU2673523564, försöker följa Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index följer företagsobligationer denominerade i EUR. Indexet speglar inte ett konstant löptidsintervall (som är fallet med de flesta andra obligationsindex). Istället ingår endast obligationer som förfaller mellan oktober 2032 och september 2033 i indexet (ETF kommer att stängas i efterhand). Indexet består av ESG (environmental, social and governance) screenade företagsobligationer. Betyg: Investment Grade.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,12 procent p.a. Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D är den enda ETF som följer Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate September 2033 SRI-index. ETFen replikerar det underliggande indexets prestanda genom samplingsteknik (köper ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna). Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i ETFen delas ut till investerarna (Minst årligen).

Denna ETF lanserades den 8 november 2023 och har sin hemvist i Luxemburg.

Bloomberg MSCI Euro Corporate SRI PAB Index syftar till att spegla resultatet på följande marknad:

  • EUR-denominerade företagsobligationer
  • Endast obligationer med investeringsklass
  • Obligationer med en löptid på minst 1 år
  • Minsta utestående belopp på 300 miljoner euro per obligation
  • Endast obligationer utgivna av företag med en MSCI ESG-rating på BBB eller högre och en MSCI ESG Impact Monitor över 1 ingår

Indexet övervakar absoluta växthusgasutsläpp (“GHG”) genom att sätta en initial 50 % avkolning av absoluta växthusgasutsläpp i förhållande till moderuniversumet följt av en årlig 7 % avkolningsbana för absoluta växthusgasutsläpp.

Obligationer utgivna av företag som är involverade i alkohol, tobak, hasardspel, vuxenunderhållning, genetiskt modifierade organismer (GMO), kärnkraft, civila skjutvapen, militära vapen (inklusive minor, klusterbomber, kemiska vapen) är undantagna.

Handla XB33 ETF

Xtrackers II Target Maturity Sept 2033 EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF 1D (XB33 ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på Deutsche Boerse Xetra.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
XETRAEURXB33

Största innehav

ISINNamnVikt %Land
IE00BZ3FDF20DEUTSCHE GLOBAL LIQUIDITY SERI0.54%Irland
CH1214797172BBG01BFYVYX8 CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG 3/290.18%Schweiz
XS0525602339RABOBANK 07/250.14%Holland
FR0000471930FRANCE TELECOM 01/330.13%Frankrike
FR0013324357SANOFI SA 1.375% 2030-03-210.12%Frankrike
XS1001749289MICROSOFT CORP 12/280.12%USA
XS1372839214VODAFONE GROUP PLC 08/26 EUR515200.12%Storbritannien
XS2461234622BBG0162QT3D3 JPMORGAN CHASE AND CO 3/300.11%USA
XS2235996217NOVARTIS FINANCE SA 9/280.11%Spanien
XS2705604234BBG01JPP1244 BANCO SANTANDER SA 10/310.11%Spanien
FR0013398070BNP PARIBAS 01/26 AW7468680.11%Frankrike
XS2180007549AT&T INC 5/280.11%Frankrike
XS2149207354GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC 3/250.10%USA
XS1603892149MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER 04/27 AN3187610.10%USA
CH0537261858CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG SR UNSECURED REGS 04/26 VAR 4/250.10%Schweiz

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Ny ETF från Franklin Templeton investerar med katolska värderingar

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En ny börshandlad fond utgiven av Franklin Templeton har varit handelsbar på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt sedan i torsdags. Denna ETF investerar med katolska värderingar.

En ny börshandlad fond utgiven av Franklin Templeton har varit handelsbar på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt sedan i torsdags. Denna ETF investerar med katolska värderingar.

Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF (FLXA) ger investerare tillgång till en brett diversifierad aktieportfölj med cirka 800 stora och medelstora företag på utvecklade marknader som anses vara miljömedvetna och socialt ansvarstagande.

Jämförelseindexet, MSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal and Low Carbon Index, syftar till att visa ett lägre koldioxidavtryck och en bättre miljö-, social- och styrningsprofil jämfört med MSCI World Index.

Undantagna är företag som är verksamma inom kontroversiella affärsområden som vapen, hasardspel, vuxenunderhållning eller är inblandade i abort, preventivmedel, stamcellsforskning och djurförsök.

NamnISINAvgift
%
Utdelnings-
policy
Referens-
index
Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETFIE000AZOUN820,27%AckumulerandeMSCI World Select Catholic Principles ESG Universal and Low Carbon Index-NR

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 157 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

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Playing the AI revolution through commodities and gold’s curious rally

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“A single search query on Chat GPT consumes around 1500% more energy than a simple search google search. The overall energy amounts are marginal on their own. Even taken in aggregate, it is a blip in terms of total global energy demand. However, it is illustrative of the potential big increases in electricity demand that will come from the AI revolution.

“A single search query on Chat GPT consumes around 1500% more energy than a simple search google search. The overall energy amounts are marginal on their own. Even taken in aggregate, it is a blip in terms of total global energy demand. However, it is illustrative of the potential big increases in electricity demand that will come from the AI revolution.

“Over the past 20 years, the US has seen its electricity demand stagnate. While its economy has grown, it has been able to avoid the need to add electricity generation thanks to efficiency savings. But this is now changing, and a big reason is the boom in data centre demand, with AI datacentre demand in particular.

“For example, Virginia has one of the densest clusters of data centres in the US. Dominion, the utility company servicing the state, had previously forecast net energy to increase by 2.9% between 2022 and 2037. Now they forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 4.4% between 2023 and 2028, principally due to energy demand from data centres. Similar patterns can be expected across the country.

“So, while many investors are chasing the AI theme through exposure to tech stocks, especially through big names such as Microsoft, it is also worth highlighting the materials or commodity angle — a literal picks and shovels approach.

“Nuclear energy will provide a key role in supplying the electricity for this expected boom in electricity demand, particularly given its zero-carbon credentials. We’ve already seen Amazon purchase a data centre situated next to a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania for Amazon Web Services.

“With more nuclear energy generation, uranium will see greater demand. The uranium market is already tight with forecast deficits of supply vs demand. Primary uranium mine supply is significantly trailing demand, with a cumulative forecasted supply shortfall of approximately 1.5 billion pounds by 2040. This added component will put more pressure on the uranium price, to the benefit of the miners.

“But generating electricity is only one part of the story. At the same time, getting the electricity generated by nuclear energy to the end user requires transmission. That requires a lot of copper. A build of new data centres will require a buildout of copper-intensive transmission lines.

“As with uranium, the copper market is facing a supply deficit. Copper will be a key metal in the energy transition, with 2.5x more copper wiring in an EV vs a conventional car, while solar panels and wind turbines require grid expansions and upgrades. The additional demand for copper from the AI revolution and data centre build up simply adds to this.”

HANetf is the issuer of the Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (U3O8), Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (U8NJ) and the Sprott Copper Miners ESG-Screened UCITS ETF (ASWD).

Gold’s curious rally

“Gold has hit several new all-time-highs this year, breaching $2,431/oz. This has been driven by central bank buying, geopolitical-driven safe-haven buying, emerging market investment demand, as well as anticipation around forthcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts, albeit with declining expectations regarding the latter.

“But it is worth looking into some of these drivers themselves. Let’s start with anticipated rate cuts. Gold looks more attractive when interest rates are low or expected to be cut. Gold is a non-yielding asset, so it becomes more attractive the lower yields are on other assets such as bonds. So, with the year starting with expectations of several Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold came into focus.

“But the curious case of this year’s gold market rally is that, despite expectations around these rate cuts gradually receding, with more cautious language from the Fed and some less than positive inflation data prints, the gold rally has continued unabated.

“There are several reasons for this. First, the geopolitical climate is increasingly top of mind for investors. The war in Ukraine continues and we’ve seen a potentially dramatic escalation in the Middle East with Israel and Iran launching missile attacks on one another.

“At the same time, we’ve continued to see central banks buying gold for their reserves. This has principally, but not only, been driven by China. This is geopolitics related, as many see the Chinese central bank’s gold buying being driven by a movement among the BRICS countries towards de-dollarisation. But a key point here is that central banks are a potentially less price-sensitive buyer – their demand is driven by other strategic considerations.

“But while gold has rallied, gold ETF and ETC investors have been absent. This is not how it usually works. Inflows into gold ETFs and ETCs have historically been fairly well correlated with the gold price, but this year a gap opened up. US and European investors were selling gold while the price went up. However, latest data from the World Gold Council now shows that in March, there were slight positive inflows in gold ETFs among American investors. Europeans were still selling, but the uptick in gold ETFs in the US does potentially suggest a trend change.”

HANetf is issuer of The Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC (RM8U) and AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO).

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