TAARSS says prefer Fixed Income in Q4

Deutsche Bank ETF TAARSS says prefer Fixed Income in Q4Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global – TAARSS says prefer Fixed Income in Q4

The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says prefer Fixed Income in Q4 and extend duration
05 October 2015 (23 pages/ 1392 kb)

Download the complete report

Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update

Top recommendations for September: US Treasuries, and US, Europe, and Japan equities.

Market review

Risk assets plunged, while safer ones found support in September. Global equities (ACWI) and Commodities (DBC) both plunged by 3.4%, while US Bonds (AGG) recorded modest gains of 0.81%.

TAARSS rotation strategy monthly and quarterly performance review

Quarterly and monthly TAARSS strategies were mixed. Quarterly strategies underperformed; while most monthly strategies outperformed their benchmarks.

Tactical positioning for October 2015 and Q4 based on TAARSS

ETF flow trends clearly suggest a defensive positioning into year end. Our model suggests a clear preference for fixed income over equities, and away from commodities in Q4. In addition, our model suggests an increase in the duration of fixed income portfolios by adding long and intermediate exposure for the same period.

For the month of October, TAARSS suggests a positioning favoring US Treasuries, and investment grade over high yield credit within fixed income. For equity positions a defensive approach with a preference for DM and the US over Emerging Markets is recommended. Within the US, a broad all-cap or equal weighted exposure may be more suitable; while in Intl DM, Japan or European regional allocations seem to have better investment demand support. In EM countries, weakness in China and India remained, but seemed to be fading; while the significant selling pressure in Indonesia suggests investors should stay away. In general, specific country risk outside Japan and the US should be avoided in order to benefit from diversification particularly during times of higher volatility. In the commodity space we don’t see strong signals worth highlighting. See Figure 13 and Figure 14 for full allocation details for the month of October and Q4.

TAARSS says risk off prefer US Treasuries in September

TAARSS says risk off prefer US Treasuries in September

TAARSS says risk off prefer US Treasuries in September

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global

The Flow Whisperer – The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says risk off prefer US Treasuries in September

Download the complete report

Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update

Top recommendations for September: US Treasuries, and US, Europe, and Japan equities.

Market review

All markets experienced weakness during August. Global equities (ACWI) plunged by 6.8%, while US Bonds (AGG), and Commodities (DBC) were down by 0.34% and 0.25%, respectively.

TAARSS rotation strategy monthly and quarterly performance review

Quarterly and monthly TAARSS strategies underperformed or were down in a similar way than their benchmarks.

Tactical positioning for September 2015 based on TAARSS

ETF flow trends clearly suggest risk off move by investors. We saw weakness in equities, particularly in EM, and in high yield credit within fixed income; while at the same time there was a clear surge in rates ETF flows via allocations to US Treasury products. Therefore, for this month we prefer US Treasury exposure (shorter duration, if concerned about Fed hike) along with handpicked equity exposures such as broad or equal-weighted US, regional Europe, or Japan. At the same time, we recommend to avoid other areas experiencing selling pressure such as EM at a country or regional level, and individual DM ex Japan countries within equities, and EM debt within Fixed Income. In the commodity space we continue to advice caution, despite the positive trends we saw in Energy and Gold. See Figure 13 and Figure 14 for full allocation details for the month of September and Q3.

 

Använd en fond för att få exponering mot emerging markets

Använd en fond för att få exponering mot emerging markets

Använd en fond för att få exponering mot emerging markets Investerarna och spararna som väljer att placera i fonder har inte varit helt isolerade från den volatilitet som vi ser på tillväxtmarknaderna eftersom många produkter har en exponering mot emerging markets. Det går emellertid att använda börshandlade fonder för att hantera sin exponering mot enskilda marknader på ett bättre sätt. Enligt Wall Street Journal äger internationella aktiefonder mellan 20 och 30 procent av tillgångarna i utvecklingsekonomier, även om siffror på upp till 40 procent förekommer på enskilda marknader. Det finns anledning att oroa sig för denna utveckling i dagens börsklimat när volatiliteten på utvecklingsekonomiernas börser tynger den globala börsutvecklingen.

Enligt analysföretaget Morningstar har tio av de tolv aktiefonder som har högst exponering mot emerging markets haft en sämre utveckling än sina konkurrenter i år när tillväxtmarknadsfonderna har rasat med i genomsnitt 13 procent. Låt oss titta på några av världens största börshandlade fonder. iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (NasdaqGS: ACWI) som försöker återspegla resultatet av MSCI ACWI Index, har till exempel en exponering om 6,4 procent mot tillväxtmarknaderna medan Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (NYSEArca: VT), som följer FTSE Global All Cap Index, har allokerat 6,5 procent av sitt kapital till emerging markets. På den andra sidan spektrat finns till exempel Vanguard FTSE All-World ex USA (NYSEArca: VEU), som spårar internationella aktier och exkluderar den amerikanska marknaden. VEU har allokerat 85,7 procent av sitt kapital till utvecklade marknader, exklusive USA samt 14,4 procent till emerging markets. iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF (NasdaqGM: ACWX) har fördelat sitt kapital på 85,8 procent till utvecklade marknader utanför USA och 14,2 procent till tillväxtekonomierna. Year-to-date har ACWI fallit med 4,7 procent, VT med 4,1 procent, VEU har gått ned med 5,0 procent och ACWX har tappat 5,5 procent av sitt värde.

Det finns andra alternativ

Det går även att få exponering mot så kallade emerging markets genom andra börshandlade fonder. IShares MSCI EAFE ETF (NYSEArca: EFA) och Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF (NYSEArca: VEA) har cirka 60 procent av sitt kapital i Europa, cirka 30 procent i Asien och resten har allokerats till tillväxtekonomierna. Dessa ETFer har utvecklats något bättre, ETA har backat med 1,5 procent och VEA med 1,4 procent sedan årets början.

Samtidigt har Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: VWO) och iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM), de två största tillväxtmarknader ETFerna mätt i tillgångar, fallit med 14,5% och 15,1% år-to-date, respektive.

Tillväxtmarknaderna har haft en mycket orolig period under de senaste månaderna, något som beror på försvagade tillväxtutsikter, fallande valutakurser och oro för att Kinas ekonomi visar tecken på avmattning. Dessutom är utsikterna för en kommande räntehöjning från FED illavarslande för emerging markets eftersom det kan leda till kapitalutflöden från de mer riskfyllda tillväxtekonomierna.

Genom att separera utvecklade ekonomier och tillväxtmarknader kan en investerare får en större kontroll över sina investeringar och sin exponering. Många förvaltare anser att det finns ett tillfälle att investera i emerging markets nu och att de är prisvärda efter flera års fallande kurser. Med en riktad ETF kan en placerare styra sin investering efter sin egen risktoleransnivå.

TAARSS says prefer European and US equities in August

TAARSS says prefer European and US equities in August

TAARSS says prefer European and US equities in August

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global

The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says prefer European and US equities in August
11 August 2015 (22 pages/ 887 kb)

Download the complete report

Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update

Top recommendations for August: Europe, Japan, and US Consumer Staples equities, and US Treasuries.

Market review

Global equities and bonds ended up on the positive side on July. Global equities (ACWI) and US Bonds (AGG) rose by 0.82% and 0.86%, respectively; while Commodities (DBC) plunged by 12.61%

TAARSS rotation strategy monthly and quarterly performance review

Quarterly and monthly TAARSS strategies were mixed during July. Quarterly multi asset and monthly market rotations were the best TAARSS strategies.

Tactical positioning for August 2015 based on TAARSS

This month in global equity markets prefer Intl DM, and the US, while staying away from EM. Region wise prefer Europe and North America equities, while staying away from Latin America and Asia Pacific. In US equities we prefer large caps and small caps over mid caps. Sector wise we see support in Consumer Staples and Healthcare. In Intl DM countries prefer Japan and stay away from Canada. Within EM countries, we see weakness across the board especially in China and South East Asian countries such as Indonesia and Thailand. In Fixed Income trends suggest rates over credit; while within Commodities we see general weakness. See Figure 13 and Figure 14 for full allocation details for the month of August and Q3.

 

TAARSS says prefer Global Equities and Short-term bonds in Q3

TAARSS says prefer Global Equities and Short-term bonds in Q3

TAARSS says prefer Global Equities and Short-term bonds in Q3

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Global
The Flow Whisperer – TAARSS says prefer Global Equities and Short-term bonds in Q3

Download the complete report

Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update

Top recommendations for July: Japan, Europe, US Commercial Banks, and US Healthcare.

Market review

Global equities and bonds were under pressure during June. Global equities (ACWI) and US Bonds (AGG) fell by 2.57% and 1.08%, respectively; while Commodities (DBC) advanced by 1.64%

TAARSS rotation strategy monthly and quarterly performance review

Most quarterly and monthly TAARSS strategies presented weakness across the board during Q2 and June 2015, respectively.

Tactical positioning for Q3 and July 2015 based on TAARSS

For Q3 we clearly prefer Global Equities, while staying neutral to Bonds and away from Commodities. Within Bonds we have seen a clear shortening of the duration in investors’ portfolios, therefore we recommend staying in short-term debt products this quarter.

This month in global equity markets prefer Intl DM, stay neutral to the US, and away from EM. Region wise prefer Europe and Asia Pacific, with neutral North American exposure, while staying away from Latin America. In US equities we resume the small and mid cap over large cap theme. Sector wise we see more resilience and support in Healthcare and Technology. In Intl DM countries prefer Japan. Within EM countries, we see South Korea as the only silver lightning currently. In Fixed Income and Commodities we don’t see any strong readings. See Figure 13 and Figure 14 for full allocation details.