No bounce for the Aussie Dollar

No bounce for the Aussie Dollar ETF SecuritiesNo bounce for the Aussie Dollar

Although the Australian economy set a record of not having a recession in 104 quarters – since 1992 – growth in Q1 2017 was the weakest in over seven years. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remaining firmly in an accommodative policy stance, the downside risks for the Australian Dollar (AUD) are mounting in the near term. No bounce for the Aussie Dollar.

Outside of the housing sector business investment is showing some signs of life, albeit from depressed levels. Additionally, company profits have rebounded strongly in recent quarters. The Chinese economy is stabilising and while a supportive influence, it is unlikely to be a significant catalyst for strong growth in the near-term. Such business conditions should help bolster wage growth, but household incomes are likely to grind rather than shoot higher.

(click to enlarge)

Consumer balance sheets remain stretched as debt levels are climbing as house prices are surging

Consumer balance sheets remain stretched as debt levels are climbing as house prices are surging. House prices have risen on average over 2% per quarter over the past three years. Despite an improving jobs market, wages grew just 1.8% in Q1 2017 from a year earlier, a record low rate. Such household dynamics have restricted housing affordability, particularly in the major state capital cities of Sydney and Melbourne. Lacklustre wage growth is also constraining the ability for households to save: the savings ratio is at the lowest level since the financial crisis, leaving little buffer in case of any economic shock. Of the countries that the Bank of International Settlements collects data for, only Denmark and the Netherlands have higher household debt service ratios than Australia. Nonetheless, it is important that concerns shouldn’t be overblown – the household debt service ratio is hovering below the longer term average and well below levels that existed during the financial crisis.

Meanwhile, inflation remains subdued and the RBA remains in ‘wait and see’ mode. The central bank is comfortable with a weak local currency, noting at its last monetary policy meeting that ‘The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 had also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.’ We expect little upside for the AUD in the near-term and risks remain to the downside, with the US Federal Reserve becoming more aggressive in its rhetoric toward tighter policy.

 

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.

Commodity rebound not enough for Aussie dollar

Commodity rebound not enough for Aussie dollar

ETF Securities FX Research: Commodity rebound not enough for Aussie dollar Aussie dollar has tracked global commodity prices higher in 2016, but soft domestic conditions will pressure the local currency. Corporate earnings have remained lacklustre, just 5% above the multi-year lows China’s growth remains robust, but the softening trend is a bearish factor for AUD. The commodity price rebound won’t be enough to offset AUD declines. Futures market pricing remains buoyant, but appears to be rolling over. The options market indicates that AUD has the lowest level of optimism of G10 currencies for growth in coming months.

Commodity price rebound

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is one of the major global commodity currencies, as its economy is closely tied to its export base. Commodity markets have begun to recover in 2016, and the AUD has rallied by over 4% in 2016 – the fourth best performing G10 currency in 2016 after the JPY, and the ‘other’ commodity currencies (NOK & CAD). Australia’s major commodity exports are iron ore and coal. Both commodities have recorded stellar gains in 2016, rising 23% and 78%, respectively, and the strong links of the Australian economy to commodity exports have buoyed the local currency. These bulk commodities take a 54% weighting in the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Commodity Index. (Click to enlarge) Nonetheless, the Aussie dollar has been weighed down by the sharp decline in company profits in recent years. As a result, capital expenditure plans have been put on hold, particularly in the resources sector. However, the non-mining economy is broadly picking up the slack, with construction, and public spending propping up the economy in 2016. And profits have begun to edge higher this year, helping the AUD to track toward the top of its range in recent months. (Click to enlarge)

Chinese growth robust but softening

Another area of growth for the Australian economy this year has been exports. There is a strong correlation between the terms of trade (the amount that Australia receives for its exports relative to what it pays for imports) and the Aussie Dollar. As Australia’s largest trading partner, the Chinese economy remains a significant determinant of the performance of the Australian currency. The growth path of China will determine future demands of Australia’s output, in turn impacting the strength of the Australian dollar – the greater the demand, the greater the buoyancy for commodity prices. The driver of China’s economy is moving toward a more domestic demand driven, services sector led growth. Accordingly, we feel that growth indicators, like the Li Keqiang index are somewhat outdated and should include new measures that represent a growing services sector, like retail spending and internet usage. (Click to enlarge) Our modified Li Keqiang Index shows growth should continue to be elevated, although the trend is lower. The softening growth path is likely to lead to a weaker AUD. While commodity prices will be continually supported by Chinese demand, we expect that it will not be enough to buttress the Aussie dollar at current levels.

Central bank policy

Interest rates also play a key role for currency movements in the shorter term. Accordingly, both Australian and US central bank policy can substantially affect the value of the AUD. Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has continued to cut interest rates (dropping the official rate to 1.5% in August – the lowest level on record) the Aussie Dollar has been resilient. The market expected the central bank should have done more to support the domestic economy in order to fulfil its price stability mandate, and as a result AUD continued to rally. We feel the rally is beginning to lose momentum. Despite cutting rates twice during 2016, in an easing cycle that has spanned the past five years, we expect that the RBA will keep rates on hold for a protracted period, although inflation remains low. Price pressure is likely to remain lacklustre for a prolonged period because of the absence of wage growth. In contrast, the US Fed is likely to continue its tightening cycle. The combination of a neutral bias for policy in Australia, matched with the upward path for rates in the US, we expect that the Australian dollar is unlikely to break to the upside of its recent A$0.72-0.78 range against the US Dollar. With the US Federal Reserve already beginning to tighten policy, albeit extremely gradually, and with the likelihood of lifting rates again in 2016, widening rate differentials should provide US Dollar support. Accordingly, we expect the Australian dollar to grind lower toward the bottom end of the range in the coming months. (Click to enlarge) Another way to trade a softer AUD is via the British Pound (GBP). GBP/AUD is hovering at the lowest level in three years after the ‘flash crash’ in GBP last week. We expect that GBP has overshot fundamental drivers to the downside and with risks balanced for a downside move for AUD, we feel that GBP/AUD could see a significant rebound toward A$1.65 from A$1.60 in the near term.

Market pricing

(Click to enlarge) Futures market net long positioning has rebounded in recent weeks, towards the 2016 highs. With the AUD trading around the top of the 2016 range, options market pricing shows that the AUD has the lowest level of optimism of G10 currencies for growth.

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Aussie dollar to turn lower

Aussie dollar to turn lower

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – Aussie dollar to turn lower
  • Sentiment towards the AUD has turned bearish as iron ore prices retreat to two month lows.
  • The global iron ore market looks set to stay well supplied in 2016 as major producers honour high production targets.
  • The AUD/USD will be prone to downside if the US Federal Reserve meeting next week has a hawkish outcome.

Oversupply to push iron ore prices lower

In our last piece on the AUD we outlined a case for the currency to maintain its upward momentum, emphasising the importance of rising commodity prices in supporting its rally (see Aussie rally intact) and the longer term risks associated with this dynamic. In the interim, sentiment towards Australia’s primary export, iron ore, has taken a marked turn, falling 7% to a two month low ($56/tonne). Over coming months it looks increasingly likely that iron ore prices will resume their decline, as news of increased supply on the international market continues to compound bearish sentiment. With the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) looking increasingly neutral and recent manufacturing data falling for the first time in a year, the AUD looks likely to succumb to downward pressure from falling export prices. A fall in the AUD/USD could be catalysed by a hawkish outcome to the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting next week, as the currency pair has recently exhibited sensitivity to rhetoric from Fed speakers. The world’s largest producers of iron ore Vale, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto have all recently committed to maintaining production at strong levels in coming years. Together these firms are responsible for approximately three quarters of the global seaborne market, making their contribution significant for the price of the mineral on the international stage. The Australian Department of Industry, Science and Innovation, in its June 2016 resource outlook, predicted that Australian and Brazilian exports of iron ore will grow on average by 6.7% and 5.5% per year respectively to 2017, compounding supply issues in an already over-supplied market. Representatives from BHP Billiton have also recently revealed that they expect the iron ore price to fall from current levels which sit at the top of their expected range due to a “well-telegraphed” influx of cheap supply from major producers. This makes the prospects for iron ore and AUD increasingly bearish in the months ahead.

(Click to enlarge)

Tide turning

The AUD/USD currency pair has produced a number of bearish signals in recent weeks, breaking key support levels and accumulating downward momentum. The AUD/USD has also been negatively impacted by recent hawkish rhetoric from members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), falling following speeches from Dudley, Fisher and Rosengren. Should the Fed deliver a message of further tightening at its meeting next week we could see the AUD/USD fall beyond the low from the 28th July of 0.7421 to its 200 DMA (daily moving average) of 0.7398.

RBA maintains a neutral stance on upbeat outlook

The RBA has increasingly projected signs that it remains satisfied with current economic conditions and intends to maintain a neutral monetary policy stance. A recent speech by Assistant Governor Chris Kent provided an upbeat assessment of the Australian economy, flagging “abatement of two substantial headwinds”, namely the decline in mining capex and a fall in the nation’s terms of trade. The speech complemented strong trade data from China in providing an improved outlook for the Australian economy, thus reducing the case for further rate reductions in 2016. The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

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Aussie rally intact

ETF Securities FX Weekly – Aussie rally intact

Weekly currency investment views from ETF Securities – Aussie rally intact

Aussie rally intact

Summary

The AUD has risen strongly despite the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting rates and inflation coming in below expectations.

Risks for the currency have diminished, with the country avoiding a hung parliament and a downgrade in its credit rating.

In the near term, strong commodity demand from China should keep the currency supported, particularly against the Euro.

Download investment view (.pdf)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risks shift to the downside for the Aussie

Risks shift to the downside for the Aussie

Market Insight – Foreign Exchange Risks shift to the downside for the Aussie

RBA cuts rates

On the 3rd May the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) took the decision to cut interest rates in response to recent signs of weak inflationary pressure. While the move itself was not a complete surprise (55% probability priced in prior to RBA meeting), the quarterly monetary policy statement that accompanied the meeting revealed that the bank’s central view towards inflation had taken a marked shift. The bank had slashed inflation forecasts by 50-100bps to reflect a new base scenario, whereby underlying inflation would sit at the bottom of the target 2-3% range for the entirety of the forecast period (to Jun-18, see Figure 1). Since the meeting, the AUD has fallen 3.3%* on a trade weighted basis but market pricing of further cuts have not really moved (only one further cut priced in this year). Going forward, the AUD has potential to come under further pressure, especially if Australian inflationary measures remain subdued and prompt the RBA to pursue a more aggressive easing path.

(Click to enlarge)

Weak wages underpin inflation outlook

The latest monetary policy statement highlights that “the outlook for domestic cost pressures is a key source of uncertainty” for the RBA’s own inflation predictions. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reveals that recent wage growth and headline inflation numbers have been particularly lacklustre, falling despite above trend growth and declining unemployment (see Figure 2). Furthermore, inflation expectations have fallen sharply since the turn of the year, raising concerns that low expectations will become embedded in wage levels. These risks will place additional emphasis on ABS wage and inflation data due on the 18th May and 26th July respectively. Should they disappoint, the AUD will likely fall against its developed market counterparts as expectations of further easing rise.

(Click to enlarge)

Speculative longs fall from highs

Speculative long AUD positions fell for the first in time in almost two months last week as the RBA’s dovish monetary policy statement and the recent fall in bulk commodity prices has led investors to reassess the recent upward trend. In coming months, positioning is likely to fall from current elevated levels and could place the AUD under pressure.

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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