Etikett: Australian Dollar

Gold and the US Dollar back in favour

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis - Gold and the US Dollar back in favourGold and the US Dollar back in favour

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Gold and the US Dollar back in favour

  • Gold and the US Dollar back in favour.
  • Gold inflows rebound to the highest levels in 16 weeks, and the fourth consecutive week of inflows.
  • Emerging market bonds see largest inflows in eight weeks.

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Gold inflows rebound to the highest levels in 16 weeks, and the fourth consecutive week of inflows. Long Gold ETPs received US$65.4mn – the largest inflows across the commodity complex as the US Dollar rally has stalled somewhat and US inflation breached the 2% level for the first time since 2014. Inflation, and the US Federal Reserve’s ability to deal with it, is critical for the trajectory of gold in coming months, especially with the onset of the Trump-era fiscal spending policies. Prices could threaten the 3% level in coming months and if the Fed doesn’t raise rates to counter, falling real interest rates will lift gold. Nonetheless, the ‘devil is in the detail’ for President Trump’s pro-growth policy framework, and whether the impact is felt in 2017, or as we expect, more likely in 2018 could limit gold’s gains.

Emerging market bonds received largest inflows in eight weeks. Emerging government bond ETPs recorded inflows of US$22mn last week, as investors continued to look to EM space for better returns. Higher yielding EM bond ETPs have now posted the third consecutive week of inflows.

Profit taking in short JPY ETPs reaches the highest level since April 2016. Investors have reduced positions to the US Dollar against the Yen for the twelfth consecutive week, as the steep decline in the Yen appears to have lost momentum. Conflicting statements from incoming US Government policymakers have forced the dollar to trade a volatile range against the Yen over the past few weeks, with outflows from ETPs giving short exposure to the Yen against the Dollar totalling US$13.8mn last week.

Record inflows betting against commodity currencies, totalling US$7.4mn. Amid hawkish comments from Fed Chair Yellen and concern that President Trump’s policies could exacerbate a Chinese growth slowdown, investors have funded record positions in favour of the US Dollar and against a basket of commodity currencies (Australian Dollar, Norwegian Krone, Canadian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar.) Bolstering such a trade is that oil prices remain near the top of recent ranges and with increasing production in the US, downside risk remains elevated.

Agricultural commodities received the largest inflows in six weeks, totalling US$18.3mn. Of the inflows, diversified basket exposures accounted for 21%, wheat 22% and cocoa 49%. The trend toward diversified investing hasn’t been confined to agriculture alone: over the past month, the most significant inflows into the energy, industrial metal and livestock sectors have been via diversified basket ETPs. Bargain hunting appears to be the driver for cocoa, as it has been the worst performing agricultural commodity over the past year, and the only one to post a negative return over the past month.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The products discussed in this communication are issued by ETFS Commodity Securities Limited (”CSL”), ETFS Hedged Commodity Securities Limited (”HCSL”), ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (”HMSL”), Swiss Commodity Securities Limited (”SCSL”), ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (”FXL”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (”MSL”), ETFS Oil Securities Limited (”OSL”), ETFS Equity Securities Limited (”ESL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (”GBS” and, together with CSL, HCSL, HMSL, SCSL, FXL, MSL, OSL and ESL, the ”Issuers”) and GO UCITS ETF Solutions Plc (the ”Company ”). Each Issuer (apart from SCSL) is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. The Company is an open-ended investment company with variable capital having segregated liability between its sub-funds (each a ”Fund”) and is organised under the laws of Ireland. The Company is regulated, and has been authorised as a UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland (the ”Financial Regulator”) pursuant to the European Communities (Undertaking for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities) Regulations, 2003 (as amended).

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Securities issued by the Issuers and the Company may be structured products involving a significant degree of risk and may not be suitable for all types of investor. This communication is aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant Issuer or the Company which includes, inter alia, information on certain risks associated with an investment. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may be priced in US Dollars, Euros, or Sterling, and the value of the investment in other currencies will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities of the Issuers or the shares of the Company which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor.

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Issuers

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For Dutch, French, German and Italian Investors: The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) have been passported from the United Kingdom into France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands and have been filed with the l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) in Germany, CONSOB and the Bank of Italy in Italy and the Authority Financial Markets (Autoriteit Financiële Markten) in the Netherlands. Copies of prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports, can be obtained in France from HSBC France, 103, Avenue des Champs Elysées, 75008 Paris, in Germany from HSBC Trinkhaus & Burkhardt, AG, Konsortialgeschäft, Königsalle 21/23, 40212 Dusseldorf and in the Netherlands from Fortis Bank (Nederland) N.V., Rokin 55, 1012 KK Amsterdam. The prospectuses (and any supplements thereto) for each of the Issuers (apart from SCSL) may be distributed to investors in France, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands.

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Other than as set out above investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at info@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Securities issued by the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG (”UBS”), Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Merrill Lynch International (”MLI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC”), Bloomberg Finance LP (”Bloomberg”), Société Générale (”SG ”), Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated or any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS, MLCI, MLI, BAC, Bloomberg, SG, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank plc, JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this communication or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

Funds

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None of the index providers of the Funds referred to herein nor their licensors make any warranty or representation whatsoever either as to the results obtained from use of the relevant indices and/or the figures at which such indices stand at any particular day or otherwise. None of the index providers shall be liable to any person for any errors or significant delays in the relevant indices nor shall be under any obligation to advise any person of any error or significant delay therein.

Jobs data keeps Fed on track for rate hikes this year

Jobs data keeps Fed on track for rate hikes this year

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Jobs data keeps Fed on track for rate hikes this year

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Highlights


•    Oil prices continue to slide.
•    European bourses generally traded higher although Greek stocks were heavily hit after the reopening of its market.
•    Commodity currencies diverge.

Declining oil prices led the commodity sector lower, with a swelling glut in production weighing on price. We believe that the current low oil price environment will encourage high cost producers to cut back on production, paving the way for price gains in the future. An appreciating US dollar maintained pressure on the commodity complex more generally. With 215,000 jobs added to the US economy in July, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on track for an interest rate hike later this year. Consensus expectations are for a September hike, although the futures market is looking further out in the year for the central bank to pull the trigger.

Commodities

Oil prices continue to slide. WTI and Brent crude oil benchmarks fell 8.0% and 7.1% respectively to the lowest levels since March and January. The global supply glut shows little sign of relenting. US oil rigs in operation have increased three weeks in a row. OPEC’s monthly report due tomorrow is likely to confirm that Saudi Arabia has continued to increase production beyond 10.5mn barrels per day, adding more oil to an oversupplied market in it pursuit for market share. As the summer driving season in the US starts to wind down and refineries undergo maintenance before the winter period, demand for crude is likely to hit a lull, weighing on price in the short-term. Current conditions are likely to drive the cuts in capex to high-cost non-US, non-OPEC production, helping to tighten supply in the future. Wood Mackenzie estimates US$200bn of capex cuts across the industry, primarily in deep-sea production.

Equities

European bourses generally traded higher although Greek stocks were heavily hit after the reopening of its market. The Greek Stock Exchange re-opened after a five-week hiatus, allowing investors to sell their holdings. Greek stocks fell an initial 23% on Monday, before trimming losses to just 16% by Friday. European manufacturing purchasing managers indices surprised to the upside, lifting investor sentiment about the pace of the economic recovery. The DAX, FTSE MIB and FTSE100 gained 2.7%, 1.8% and 1.3% respectively. MSCI China A-Shares ended the week 0.4% higher as the market responded to the equity market support offered by the government. An estimated US$144bn has been spent by the government on supporting the market and we believe a considerable amount of resources are available to the China Securities Finance Corp, the state-owned margin lending agency that is the main conduit for injecting rescue funds into the market.

Currencies

Commodity currencies diverge. The Australian dollar increased 1.0% against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australian left rates on hold at 2%. Despite disappointing economic data amid weak resource prices, a buoyant property market is driving the RBA’s reluctance to cut rate too far, especially as the efficacy of further cuts is likely to decline as we reach the zero bound. Falling oil prices weighed on oil exporting countries, with the Norwegian Krone and the Canadian dollar dropping 1.4% and 1.0% respectively against the US dollar. We expect the CAD and NOK to outperform AUD and NZD in months ahead as the oil price begins to recover. The US dollar rallied against most currencies, with the latest labour market data giving fuel for the Federal Reserve to hit the trigger on rate increases later this year. The Bank of Japan remained dovish at its latest policy meeting, helping the Yen depreciate.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Markets capitulate but a respite is in sight

Markets capitulate but a respite is in sight

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Markets capitulate but a respite is in sight

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Highlights

•    Oversupply pulls oil benchmarks to their lowest in 3 months.
•    Chinese authorities show determination in arresting market capitulation.
•    Commodity currencies depreciate on commodity market correction.

We are unlikely to see an end to Greek saga this week, dramatic or otherwise. The deal announced this morning still needs to be approved by the Greek parliament. Given the staunch opposition to further austerity and rigorous monitoring we are likely to see further rounds of arduous negotiations. Chinese equities capped losses with 2 days of positive trading toward the end of last week, but the negative sentiment around the country’s performance has weighed on commodity prices as China remains the largest consumer of almost all commodities.

Commodities

Oversupply pulls oil benchmarks to their lowest in 3 months. Rising rig counts in the US, continued increase in OPEC oil production and a general lack of investment cuts by producers has kept global oil supply elevated. As we have long argued, the rebound in oil prices since March was unsustainable without supply cuts. In the past week WTI has fallen by 7.3% and Brent by 5.6%. These price declines are necessary to motivate producers to reduce output and move the market closer to balance. The International Energy Agency this week projects that the rebalancing process will extend well into 2016. Iranian nuclear discussions have seen another deadline missed without a final verdict but talks continue to press on. If sanctions against Iran are successfully lifted, more oil supply is likely to hit the market next year, making the job of cutting back on production elsewhere that more pressing.

Equities

Chinese authorities show determination in arresting market capitulation. After falling 35% between 12th June and 7th July, MSCI China A-Shares rose 5.8% on the 8th and 4.5% on the 9th July. One of the factors driving the initial fall was a tightening on margin financing. However, with the sharp decline in prices, the central bank used the China Securities Finance Corp, the state agency responsible for margin financing loan services to qualified securities companies, to inject funding into the equity market. Additionally the Chinese authorities are investigating claims of “malicious” short selling. The broader slowdown in economic growth in China is likely to be met with further interest rate cuts and other measures to ensure ample access to financing. The government has considerable resources to see that its reform agenda is not derailed by financial market woes or a sharp slowdown in the economy. The equity market will likely respond positively to the deployment of further easing.

Currencies

Commodity currencies depreciate on commodity market correction. Australian Dollar (AUD) fell 2.7%, Norwegian Krone (NOK) fell 2.0% and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell 1.5% against the US Dollar as commodity fell sharply in the week. While oil prices may fall further to drive the necessary rebalancing of supply, other commodities are likely to rebound as prices are currently divorced from fundamentals. In the near-term NOK will continue to feel the pressure of lower oil prices, but AUD and NZD are likely to benefit from China’s expansionary policies that will likely lift the excessively negative sentiment in other cyclical commodities. The Bank of Canada will have a policy meeting this week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg show 14 expect a cut while 13 expect rates to be maintained. Given the divided opinion, we believe CAD could be a key mover this week.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Proshares stänger hävstångsfond för australiensiska dollar

Proshares stänger hävstångsfond för australiensiska dollar

Proshares stänger hävstångsfond för australiensiska dollar Världens största utgivare av inverterade och hävstångs-ETFer, Proshares stänger hävstångsfond för australiensiska dollar, närmare bestämt ProShares Ultra Australian Dollar (NYSEArca: GDAY). Denna börshandlade fond som började handlas i juli 2012 ger sina innehavare en avkastning som ger 200 procent av den dagliga förändringen av den australiensiska dollarn, Aussien, mot den amerikanska dollarn.

Efter stängningsdags den 18 juni 2015 kommer fonden inte längre att utfärda nya andelar. Handeln i denna ETF på NYSEArca kommer att upphöra innan börsen öppnas den 19 juni 2015 och det kommer inte att ske handel på någon alternativ andrahandsmarknad. Med start från denna dag kommer denna börshandlade fonds innehav att likvideras. Beräknad likvidavräkning kommer att ske den 29 juni 2015.

Proshares har inte nämnt vad som kommer att hända med GDAYs inverterade motsvarighet, ProShares UltraShort Australian Dollar (NYSEArca: CROC), en börshandlad fond som ger sina innehavare den omvända avkastning av den dagliga förändringen av den australiensiska dollarn, Aussien, mot den amerikanska dollarn. CROC ger sina andelsägare en hävstång på två, vilket betyder att denna ETF ger 200 procent på den dagliga förändringen.

2014 stängdes cirka 80 börshandlade fonder ned, medan 205 nya ETFer lanserades på marknaden. Under 2015 har cirka 30 ETFer stängts ned medan cirka 90 nya börshandlade fonder har lanserats på marknaderna runt om i världen. Inom ett par veckor kommer den senare siffran sannolikt att överträffa 100 stycken ETFer.