Finally, the market has it right for the Bank of England…but not for GBP…

Finally, the market has it right for the Bank of England…but not for GBP… ETF SecuritiesFinally, the market has it right for the Bank of England…but not for GBP…

Market expectations for the Bank of England (BOE) indicate that it is almost a forgone conclusion that a rate hike will be announced by the BOE this week. This wasn’t always the case. Until September, expectations for a rate hike this year had bounced between around 10% to 60%, and mostly toward the bottom end of that range. So why does the market have pricing wrong for GBP? Finally, the market has it right for the Bank of England…but not for GBP…

The turmoil surrounding Brexit negotiations and the uncertainty over the future economic arrangements have been a key reasons why investors have believed it unlikely that the BOE would raise interest rates. Indeed, the rebound in GBP stalled as European Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and his UK counterpart David Davis traded uneasy statements back-and-forth about the status of the discussions. However, ongoing inflation pressure, a more hawkish tone from BOE Governor Carney and resilient economic numbers have been the reasons for our long held view that the BOE would hike rates in 2017. The knee jerk rate cut triggered by the EU referendum result in June 2016 has proven to have been unnecessary and the current aggressively accommodative stance of the central bank is now counter to its objective of price stability.

Downside risk för EUR/GBP

While GBP appears well valued against the US Dollar, real interest rate differentials between the Eurozone and the UK are supportive of further gains in GBP against the Euro. Indeed, we expect further downside for the Euro, which we feel remains overvalued, with the European Central Bank ECB) striking a much more cautious tone than the BOE. Although ECB President Draghi has announced a ‘downsize’ of its asset purchase program, he noted the need for ‘continued support from monetary policy’ as ‘domestic price pressures are still muted’. With no rate hikes on the horizon, investor positioning looks stretched, hovering near record highs, and EUR/GBP will move back into the 0.84-0.88 range it was trading in for the majority of 2017. Market consensus for EUR/GBP is for 0.90 by year-end. So while the market has it right for the BOE, it has it wrong for GBP.

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.

Tidernas mest berömda valutahandlare

Tidernas mest berömda valutahandlare

De flesta valutahandlare undviker rampljuset. Istället föredrar de att tyst bygga vinster, men ett fåtal har stigit till internationell stjärnstatus. De är inflytande som har haft en djupgående inverkan på branschen. Vi tittar på tidernas mest berömda valutahandlare.

Dessa individer kan fungera som vägledning för valutahandlare i början av sin karriär, såväl som befintliga handlare som vill förbättra sina resultat. Dessa berömda valutahandlare  har gjort stora vinster genom att ta noggrant beräknade risker. Vissa är förvånansvärt ödmjuka medan andra imte alltid är lika ödmjuka med sin framgång. Alla dessa berömda valutahandlare delar en oförklarlig känsla av självförtroende som styr deras ekonomiska resultat. Se valutakurserna här.

George Soros

George Soros föddes 1930. Soros började sin ekonomiska karriär hos Singer and Friedlander i London 1954 efter att ha flytt från Ungern under andra världskriget. Han arbetade vid en serie finansiella företag tills han grundade Soros Fund Management 1970. Företaget har genererat mer än 40 miljarder dollar i vinst de senaste fem decennierna.

Soros steg till internationell berömmelse 1992 som den valutahandlare som krossade Bank of England. Han gjorde en vinst på 1 miljard dollar efter att ha sålt 10 miljarder dollar i brittiska pund sterling (GBP). Den 16 september 1992 drog Storbritannien till följd av denna handel bort pundet från den europeiska valutakursmekanismen efter att inte ha hållit sig det obligatoriska handelsbandet. Denna händelse kallas nu infamously Black Wednesday.

Denna otroliga handel var en höjdpunkt i Soros karriär och solidifierade hans titel som en av de bästa handlarna hela tiden. Soros är för närvarande en av de trettio rikaste individerna i världen.

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller växte upp i en medelklassfamilj i Philadelphias förorter. Han började sin ekonomiska karriär 1977 som en management trainee vid en Pittsburgh-bank. Han steg snabbt till framgång och bildade sitt företag, Duquesne Capital Management, fyra år senare.

Druckenmiller lyckades sedan med framgång förvalta pengar åt George Soros i flera år. I sin roll som ledande portföljchef för Quantum Fund mellan 1988 och 2000 blomstrade hans karriär.

Druckenmiller arbetade också med Soros på den ökända Bank of England-handeln, som lade grunden för hans entré till stjärnvärlden. Hans berömmelse intensifierades när han presenterades i den bästsäljande boken The New Market Wizards, som publicerad 1994. År 2010 efter att ha överlevt den ekonomiska konjunkturen 2008 stängde han sin hedgefond och medgav att han var nedslagen av det ständiga behovet att upprepa sitt framgångsrika Track record.

Andrew Krieger

Andrew Krieger började på Bankers Trust i 1986 efter att ha lämnat en position hos Solomon Brothers. Han förvärvade ett omedelbart rykte som en framgångsrik valutahandlare och företaget belönade honom genom att öka sin kapitalgräns till 700 miljoner dollar, betydligt mer än den normala gränsen på 50 miljoner dollar. Denna kreditgräns gav honom en perfekt position för att dra nytta av kraschen den 19 oktober 1987 (Black Monday).

Krieger fokuserade på Nya Zeeland dollar (NZD), som han trodde var sårbar för utförsäljningar som en del av en global panik i finansiella tillgångar. Han tillämpade den extraordinära hävstången på 400: 1 för sin redan höga handelsgräns. Det slutade med att han förvärvade en kort position som var större än Nya Zeelands penningmängd. Som en följd av den här briljanta handeln skapade han 300 miljoner dollar i vinst för sin arbetsgivare. Året därpå lämnade han företaget med 3 miljoner dollar i fickan från handeln.

Bill Lipschutz

Bill Lipschutz började handla samtidigt som han studerade på Cornell University i slutet av 1970-talet. Under den tiden fick han 12 000 USD att växa till 250 000 USD. Men han förlorade hela insatsen efter ett dåligt handelsbeslut. Denna förlust lärde honom en svår lektion om riskhantering som han bar under hela sin karriär. 1982 började han arbeta för Solomon Brothers medan han tog sin MBA-examen.

Lipschutz migrerade till Salomons nybildade valutahandelsavdelning just när valutamarknaderna exploderades i popularitet. Han var en omedelbar framgång och tjänade 300 miljoner dollar till företaget 1985. Han blev den huvudsakliga handlaren för företagets massiva valutakonto från år 1984 och behöll den positionen till sin avgång 1990. Han har haft anställning som direktör för portföljförvaltning vid Hathersage Capital Management sedan 1995.

Bruce Kovner

Bruce Kovner, född 1945 i Brooklyn, New York, gjorde inte sin första handel innan 1977 när han var 32 år gammal. Han lånade mot sitt personliga kreditkort vid den tiden för att köpa kontrakt på sojabönsterminer och nettade en vinst på 20 000 dollar. Han gick därefter till Commodities Corporation som en råvaruhandlare, där han gjorde miljoner i vinst och fick ett solidt rykte inom industrin.

Han grundade Caxton Alternative Management 1982 och omvandlade den till en av världens mest framgångsrika hedgefonder, med mer än 14 miljarder dollar i tillgångar. Fondens vinst- och förvaltningsavgifter, fördelade mellan råvaru- och valutapositioner, gjorde Kovner en av de största aktörerna i Forex-världen tills han gick i pension 2011.

Slutsats

De fem mest kända forexhandlarna delar liknande egenskaper som självförtroende och en otrolig aptit för risk.

Market underpricing UK rate hike risk

Market underpricing UK rate hike risk

ETF Securities FX Research: Market underpricing UK rate hike risk

Highlights

  • Upside potential for GBP despite the mixed message from the Bank of England (BOE) keeping volatility elevated. The market is underpricing the chance of rate hikes.
  • Rising real interest rates will continue to be supportive of Sterling (GBP) in coming months.
  • Positioning for GBP against the USD has rebounded to historical averages, but remains depressed against the Euro, which is an overcrowded trade.

One year on from the last rate cut, the Bank of England (BOE) has kept rates on hold, with the MPC voting 6-2 in favour of the decision (roughly the same as last month). Although policy remains unchanged, GBP should remain supported by what is expected to be a tighter policy path in 2017/2018. Indeed, Governor Carney has indicated that policy may need to be tightened at a faster rate than the market is currently pricing.

(click to enlarge)

Currency volatility has made a persistent move upward in recent weeks, largely to the detriment of the Pound. A relatively more hawkish policy stance by the UK central bank will support the Pound as Brexit negotiation outcomes remain obscure. As we believe inflation will remain stubbornly high, real interest rate differentials will become an increasingly important indicator for FX markets. Rising real interest rate differentials in the US continue will remain a supportive influence for GBP.

Cautious Bank of England

While a decidedly cautious tone was struck by Governor Carney at the BOE press conference last week, tighter policy is coming: if UK economic growth continues at the rate the BOE has forecast, the market is underpricing the amount of policy tightening that is necessary. The market is only pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike by end March 2018.

The UK economy remains somewhat mixed after the EU Referendum, with the unemployment rate at pre-crisis levels and evidence that both the manufacturing and services sector are growing in a robust manner. However, negative real wage growth and plummeting consumer confidence remain a constraint for the household sector.

The reason for the additional BOE stimulus (a rate cut and additional asset purchases) a year ago was appropriately forward looking, as Governor Carney quoted; ‘the weaker medium-term outlook for activity…[will lead to] an eventual rise in unemployment’. The UK central bank seems to have become less proactive since then, highlighting that the UK is currently ‘in the teeth’ of the squeeze for households and both consumption growth and business investment will improve further in coming months.

Inflation pressure mounts

Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated in the UK and well above the BOE’s target. The longer this continues, the greater the chance of expectations becoming unanchored, especially if energy price gains are sustained. While inflation hasn’t surprised to the upside in recent months, market implied inflationary expectations remain elevated (well above a year ago), and above other major economies. Inflation is expected to remain above the BOE target for the entire BOE forecast horizon, a period of three years. The BOE’s credibility is on the line, because it appears to be becoming less proactive with policy and reacting to events that have, and may not, occur i.e. a hard Brexit.

(click to enlarge)

Current BOE policy remains extremely accommodative. There may be uncertainties around the Brexit negotiations, but we believe emergency interest rate settings do not seem appropriate. Indeed, Governor Carney notes that there are limits to what monetary policy can do relating to the Brexit situation. We expect that negotiations surrounding Brexit will remain in flux and given there is unlikely to be significant progress made, the worst-case scenario has already been digested by the FX market. In turn, the BOE is likely to unwind their Brexit induced rate cut from last year in H2 2017.

The key sentence in the BOE’s Monetary Policy Summary report is ‘The combination of high rates of profitability, especially in the export sector, the low cost of capital and limited spare capacity, supports investment by UK firms over the forecast period, offsetting the effect of continued uncertainties around Brexit’. Surely if the economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit is offset, then the 2016 rate cut and additional stimulus should be unwound…if not in 2017, then when?

Just a day after the meeting, the mixed messages to the market continued: Deputy Governor Broadbent, who voted to keep rates unchanged, commented that ‘there may be some possibility for interest rates to go up a little bit’. This is reminiscent of the previous meeting that was interpreted dovishly by the market, only for the ‘doves’ to signal tighter policy was an issue that needed discussion only days later. Mixed messages are an impediment for economic stability and consumer and business confidence.

Meanwhile, gradually tighter Fed policy is already priced into the USD. Although we expect the broad USD index is in a bottoming process, a move higher will be gradual and predicated on political risks fading, something that will take time given investor focus on the incompetence of the Trump administration. Accordingly, the more hawkish policy that we expect from the BOE will bring forward expectations of a rate hike in the fourth quarter and forcing GBP higher in H2 2017.

How the market is positioned

GBP positioning has rebounded against the USD, in line with the recent more bullish performance and is now at levels consistent with longer-term historical averages.

(click to enlarge)

Against the Euro, GBP looks extremely attractively priced – hovering around record low levels. We feel that the Euro strength is at risk of an unwind as the ECB remains conservative in its policy approach in the face of the elevated Euro. Compared to historical long-term averages, positioning for the Euro highlights a very overcrowded trade.

The bottom line…

The mixed messages from the BOE are confusing investors and keeping GBP volatility elevated. We expect the BOE to unwind its Brexit-induced rate cut of 2016 in the second half of 2017, but not to remove its balance sheet stimulus from the economy. GBP will benefit from tighter policy settings. We believe that GBP will consolidate above the 1.30 level and potentially break to the upside, approaching 1.35.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

If Bank of England doesn’t hike rates in 2017, then when?

If Bank of England doesn’t hike rates in 2017, then when?

One year on from the last rate cut, the Bank of England has kept rates on hold, with the MPC voting 6-2 in favour of the decision (roughly the same as last month). Although policy remains unchanged, GBP should remain supported by what is expected to be a tighter policy path in 20-17/2018. Indeed, Governor Carney indicated that policy may need to be tightened at a faster rate than the market is currently pricing. If Bank of England doesn’t hike rates in 2017, then when?

While a decidedly cautious tone was struck by Governor Carney at the Bank of England press conference, tighter policy is coming: if UK economic growth continues at the rate the BOE has forecast, the market is underpricing the amount of policy tightening that is necessary.

The UK economy remains relatively resilient after the EU Referendum, with the unemployment rate at pre-crisis levels and evidence that both the manufacturing and services sector are growing in a robust manner. The reason for the additional Bank of England stimulus (a rate cut and additional asset purchases) a year ago was necessarily forward looking: ‘the weaker medium-term outlook for activity…[will lead to] an eventual rise in unemployment. The central bank seems to have become less proactive since then, highlighting that the UK is currently ‘in the teeth’ of the squeeze for households and both consumption growth and business investment will improve further in coming months.

The inflation remains elevated in the UK

Meanwhile, inflation remains elevated in the UK and well above the BOE’s target. The longer this continues, the greater the chance of expectations becoming unanchored, especially if energy prices rise again. While inflation hasn’t surprised to the upside in recent months, market implied inflationary expectations remain elevated (well above a year ago), and above other major economies.

(Click to enlarge)

Current BOE Policy remains extremely accommodative

Current BOE Policy remains extremely accommodative. There may be uncertainties around the Brexit negotiations, but emergency interest rate settings do not seem appropriate. Indeed, Governor Carney notes that there are limits to what monetary policy can do relating to the Brexit situation. We expect that negotiations surrounding Brexit will remain in flux and that given there is unlikely to be significant progress made, the worst case scenario has already been digested by the market and GBP. In turn, the BOE is likely to unwind their Brexit induced rate cut from last year in H2 2017.

The key sentence in the BOE’s Monetary Policy Summary report is ‘The combination of high rates of profitability, especially in the export sector, the low cost of capital and limited spare capacity supports investment by UK firms over the forecast period, offsetting the effect of continued uncertainties around Brexit’. Surely if the economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit is offset, then the 2016 rate cut and additional stimulus should be unwound…if not in 2017, then when?

 

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.

Sterling oversold?

Sterling oversold?

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – Sterling oversold?

Highlights

  • Sterling crashed overnight as a combination of heavy selling and limited liquidity sent the currency spiralling. Sterling oversold?
  • Markets are pricing in a “hard” Brexit scenario and an overly pessimistic economic outlook for the UK.
  • Current levels are attractive for UK investors to hedge FX risk and lock in recent gains on international allocations.

Threat of “hard” Brexit pressures GBP

Sterling has had its worst week since the referendum, turning sharply lower and experiencing an overnight “flash crash” as markets digested Theresa May’s speech last Sunday, which offered up some valuable details of the “Government’s plan for Brexit”. The speech, delivered to the annual Conservative Party conference, outlined what many have interpreted as the first steps towards a “hard” Brexit, whereby the UK removes itself from the single market. In response, Sterling has plunged to 31- year lows and was even struck by a bout of sharp selling upon the Asian open this morning, pushing it temporarily to as low as the 1.18 level (see GBP takes a mysterious pounding). The sharp decline appears to be largely speculative in nature and in our opinion has little grounding in fundamentals. As such, we see current levels as an attractive longer term opportunity to short the Sterling via the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP and a favourable level for UK investors to hedge foreign currency risk.

Iterative process

In our opinion, May’s speech was less a direct indication of a “hard” Brexit but rather a description of the first steps in a largely iterative process that will form the basis of Brexit proceedings. May made it clear that once EU law is transposed into British legislation any changes and amendments would be subject to “full scrutiny and proper Parliamentary debate”. This suggests that concrete details on economic matters, such as future status of trade and business relations with the EU, could take years to crystallise. As such we feel the pullback in the GBP is largely overdone as investor’s price in an overly pessimistic economic scenario.
(Click to enlarge)

Rebound ahead

Technical indicators of momentum and speculative positioning both point to the GBP being oversold. Speculative short positions towards the GBP are at record highs while both the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs are trading over 6% away from their respective 100 daily moving average (DMA). Current levels therefore look attractive points for UK investors with US or continental European assets to establish tactical currency hedges, locking the recent foreign currency gains in their international allocations. The pairs also offer an attractive opportunity for those with a longer term horizon to gain long Sterling exposure at favourable levels. In addition, the Bank of England is unlikely to loosen monetary settings further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on the 3rd November. Despite previously stating that “a further cut” is expected “during the course of this year” we don’t believe that current UK economic conditions warrant such action. This removes downward pressure on the GBP from monetary accommodation in the coming months. Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

GBP Base ETFS Long EUR Short GBP (GBUR) ETFS Short EUR Long GBP (URGB) ETFS Long USD Short GBP (GBUS) ETFS Short USD Long GBP (USGB) USD Base ETFS Long GBP Short USD (LGBP) ETFS Short GBP Long USD (SGBP) 3x ETFS 3x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB3) ETFS 3x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE3) ETFS 3x Long GBP Short USD (LGB3) ETFS 3x Short GBP Long USD (SGB3) ETFS 3x Long USD Short GBP (USP3) ETFS 3x Short USD Long GBP (PUS3) ETFS 3x Long EUR Short GBP (EUP3) ETFS 3x Short EUR Long GBP (SUP3) 5x ETFS 5x Long GBP Short EUR (EGB5) ETFS 5x Short GBP Long EUR (GBE5) Basket ETFS Bullish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LGBB) ETFS Bearish GBP vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (SGBB)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”). This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors. The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek