European bond yields are hovering near the lowest levels in history, but we believe it is not a bubble in the traditional sense. Yields are artificially low, driven by extraordinary levels of stimulus from the ECB. In this framework, we would characterise the situation as a bond balloon, not a bond bubble.
The critical difference between a balloon and a bubble is what happens at the end: central bankers are keen to deflate the balloon, rather than burst the bubble. The gradual deflation of the bond balloon is a key aspect of what policymakers want to achieve with the unwinding of asset purchase programs. As a result, communication is crucial to forming investor expectations about the path for tighter monetary policy.
We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to be guarded and very careful regarding its comments about unwinding stimulus at the upcoming policy meeting. We feel that the market has already largely priced in the tapering of the central bank’s bond purchasing programme. As a result, while there could be a brief spike higher for the Euro, it will be temporary. We feel FX markets are continuing to underestimate the cautiousness of the ECB in changing its policy settings. Investors should be wary, as ECB policymakers are already concerned about the rise in the Euro.
At the last meeting policymakers expressed concern ‘about the risk of the exchange rate overshooting in the future’. The Euro has moved higher since and with futures market positioning at the highest level on record, there are downside risks for the Euro against the Pound. The long EUR short GBP trade is overcrowded and currency pair could move back toward more historically average levels around 1.11 if the ECB’s rhetoric at this week’s meeting suggests a pragmatic and gradual approach to paring its asset purchases. If ECB President Draghi continues the narrative from last meeting and doesn’t discuss the issue at all, the negative Euro reaction could be very sudden and sharp. Further downside, toward 1.17 in the coming year is likely as clarity around Brexit negotiations is gleaned.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
Deutsche AM celebrates 10 years of growth and innovation in ETFs
Deutsche Asset Management’s (Deutsche AM’s) db X-trackers ETF business is preparing for a further decade of growth and innovation following the 10-year anniversary of the listing of its first ETFs. Deutsche AM celebrates 10 years of growth and innovation in ETFs.
The first db X-trackers ETF, the db x-trackers MSCI World Index UCITS ETF, which now has over Euros 2.5 billion in assets1, listed on the Deutsche Börse in January 2007 and marked the start of a 10-year period that saw the db X-trackers business become one of the world’s largest and most established ETF providers.
“Since the launch of our first ETF 10 years ago we’ve grown to become the biggest Europe-based globally operative provider of ETFs. That is a remarkable achievement in what is perhaps the most competitive area of the asset management industry,” said Reinhard Bellet, Deutsche AM’s Head of Passive Asset Management.
Today there is approximately USD 57 billion invested in Deutsche AM’s ETFs listed across Europe and Asia, and around USD 13 billion in its ETFs listed in the US2. The fund range has expanded to over 200 ETFs covering all major asset classes.
Industry firsts achieved over the last decade include the listing of the first ETFs in Europe and the US to provide investors with access to China’s domestic A-shares equity market, and the first ETF providing exposure to the global investment-grade bond market. Meanwhile, the db X-trackers platform has been transformed, from its initial inception as a provider of synthetic ETFs to the point today where Deutsche AM is Europe’s second-largest provider of physical ETFs, with the majority of assets under management in physical replication form3.
Bellet continued, “We are rightly celebrating our achievements these past 10 years but we’re very much focused on the future. With a range of physical replication fixed income ETFs we’re well placed to meet investor demand in this important new segment. We will also continue to take a leading market development role in areas such as strategic beta, model portfolios, and demonstrating how passive solutions can meet a wide range of investment challenges.”
Deutsche AM’s range of physical replication bond ETFs includes funds tracking US, European and Asian corporate bond indices, as well as a number of ETFs tracking sovereign bond benchmarks.
1 Source: Deutsche AM, as at Jan 5 2017
2 Source: Deutsche AM, as at Jan 5 2017
3 Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research. European Monthly ETF Market Review, 6 Dec 2016
Deutsche Asset Management
With EUR 715 billion of assets under management (as of September 30, 2016), Deutsche Asset Management¹ is one of the world’s leading investment management organizations. Deutsche Asset Management offers individuals and institutions traditional and alternative investments across all major asset classes.
¹ Deutsche Asset Management is the brand name of the Asset Management division of the Deutsche Bank Group. The respective legal entities offering products or services under the Deutsche Asset Management brand are specified in the respective contracts, sales materials and other product information documents.
Key risks
Investors should note that the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs1 are not capital protected or guaranteed and investors should be prepared and able to sustain losses of the capital invested up to a total loss.
Shares in db X-trackers UCITS ETFs which are purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the relevant fund. Investors must purchase and redeem such shares on the secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a market maker or a stock broker) and may incur fees for doing so (as further described in the applicable prospectus). In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value of a share in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF when buying shares on the secondary market, and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling such shares on the secondary market.
Investments in funds involve numerous risks including, among others, general market risks, credit risks, foreign exchange risks, interest rate risks and liquidity risks. The value of an investment in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount of their original investment.
Important Notice
This press release has been issued and approved by Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch and has been prepared solely for information purposes, and is not an offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.
Deutsche Bank AG is authorised under German Banking Law (competent authority: European Central Bank) and, in the United Kingdom, by the Prudential Regulation Authority. It is subject to supervision by the European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, and is subject to limited regulation in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority. Deutsche Bank AG is a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany, Local Court of Frankfurt am Main, HRB No. 30 000; Branch Registration in England and Wales BR000005 and Registered Address: Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB.
Please refer to the relevant fund’s full prospectus and the latest version of the Key Investor Information Document for more information on db X-trackers UCITS ETFs. These documents are available free of charge from Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch and constitute the only binding basis for purchase of shares in the ETFs. As explained in the relevant offering documents, distribution of ETFs is subject to restrictions in certain jurisdictions. The ETFs described herein may neither be offered for sale nor sold in the USA, in Canada, in Japan to US Persons or to persons residing in the USA.
All-in Fee:
Direct replication funds. • Investors should be aware that in addition to the All-In Fee, other factors may negatively impact the performance of their investment relative to the underlying index. • Examples include: Brokerage and other transaction costs, Financial Transaction Taxes or Stamp Duties as well as potential differences in taxation of either capital gains or dividend assumed in the relevant underlying index, and actual taxation of either capital gains or dividends in the fund. • The precise impact of these costs cannot be estimated reliably in advance as it depends on a variety of non-static factors. Investors are encouraged to consult the audited annual- and un-audited semi-annual reports for details.
Asset Allocation Research Yielding towards the right bond model
Highlights
With interest rates likely to rise in the US and inflation likely to increase both in the US and EU, it is time for investors to reduce their exposure to bonds.
However, bonds remain key in reducing investors’ portfolio risk. Our model based on fundamentals can help mitigate the upcoming downturn in the bond market.
Applying our model to a portfolio of bonds enhanced the Sharpe ratio to 1.61 compared to 1.51 for its benchmark by increasing return by 0.2% per year.
As inflation increases on a global basis, central banks are likely to raise rates to keep inflation around their target. An increase in interest rates will, in turn, have a negative impact on the value of bonds. Record low interest rates in developed markets have favoured investments in riskier instruments as investors sought higher returns and income. An increase in interest rates is likely to be followed by a rotation to less risky assets as investors are by nature risk-averse, potentially moving towards more cash or sovereign bonds to the detriment of high yields.
In our tactical portfolio (and its latest update – Underweight US, Europe and precious metals), we use models to determine our positions in equities, bonds and commodities. While we have previously explained what goes into the equity and commodity models, this is our first note outlining in detail our bond model. We start with the indicators the model uses as trading signals, followed by the model mechanism and concluding with the portfolio of bonds and a performance analysis of the portfolio compared to its benchmark and the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index since 2007.
Inflation expectations
Inflation can be measured in many ways. Inflation expectations measured by the 5yr 5yr forward inflation rate reflects the markets’ expectations on how central bank policies will impact inflation in the future. Technically, it represents the level of inflation expected over 5 years 5 years from now.
US and EU inflation expectations are highly correlated. A surge in inflation expectations like the one the market is currently witnessing means that inflation will likely increase and central banks will likely increase interest rates, undermining bonds.
In our bond model, we include the inflation expectations for both regions combined with their respective interest rate spreads (see chart below for the US).
Interest rate spread
The base rate is the rate at which central banks lend money to domestic banks. The 10yr forward rate is the rate at which investors are able to borrow money in 10 years from now, providing an indication on how the base rate should move in the future. With inflation expectation rates surging, the 10yr forward rates are rising, widening the spread with the base rates. This provides further certainty on an imminent rate hike, at least in the US, which would be prohibitive for US bonds.
(Click to enlarge)
Historically, the base rate moves most of the time in line with its 10yr forward rate if it does not catch it up. With the 10yr forward surging to 2.2% in the US while the base rates are currently at 0.95%, we will likely see the US Federal Reserve, increase its base rate, tightening the spreads.
In our model, we are using the spread between the 10yr forward rate and the base rate for the US and the EU combined with their respective inflation expectations as trading signals.
Credit default swap
A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial instrument that allows for the seller to transfer the credit exposure of a fixed income product to one or more parties. An increase in the value of the CDS indicates rising demand for insurance against a risk of default from the entity behind the underlying bond. It serves as a measure of the level of risk in the fixed income market.
(Click to enlarge)
Our analysis shows that there is a strong correlation between the quarterly return of bonds and the quarterly change of its respective CDS as illustrated above. In our bond model, we are taking into account the CDS level of each component of the portfolio relative to their respective first and second standard deviations above and below average.
The model mechanism
The model will tell us to overweight a bond if
– inflation expectations are at a turning point (switching from increasing to decreasing), and
– interest rate spreads are at a turning point (switching from increasing to decreasing), and
– the CDS of the bond is below its first or second standard deviation.
The model will tell us to underweight a bond if the opposite conditions to the above are aligned.
(Click to enlarge)
The above chart shows the portfolio historical positions in EU Sovereign bonds based on the model. While far from being perfect, it still manages in most occasions to signal the right changes ahead of price movements.
Performance and positioning
We created two diversified portfolios of bonds: our portfolio and its benchmark. Both have the same constituents as illustrated in the next table and rebalance on the first business day of every month. The benchmark rebalances back to its initial weights while the portfolio rebalances to a set of new weights based on the signals previously described.
(Click to enlarge)
For December, the model recommends to go underweight most of the components of the portfolio compared to the benchmark, except for US investment grade where the model recommends a neutral position. This results in a higher allocation to cash.
(Click to enlarge)
Applying the model to the portfolio of bonds shows that the portfolio outperforms its benchmark by 0.2% per year for the same level of volatility, improving the Sharpe ratio by 6.3% from 1.51 for the benchmark to 1.61.
(Click to enlarge)
We also note that the portfolio and its benchmark outperform the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index (former Lehman Aggregate Bond Index) by at least 1.4%, reduce volatility and more than double the Sharpe ratio. This can be explained by a change in universe, weights and rebalancing methodology.
Important Information
General
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Investerare som investerar i så kallade högavkastande obligationer, eller junk bonds som de också brukar benämnas, rekommenderar att titta på så kallade fallna änglar, vilka kan köpas i en börshandlad fond. Fallna änglar för obligationsportföljen är en bra strategi, i alla fall med en god riskallokering eftersom fallen angels ger investerarna en högre avkastning, möjlighet till kursuppgång och lägre defaultrisk jämfört med junk bonds. Det finns en börshandlad fond, VanEck Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEArca: ANGL), som har som strategi att investera i denna typ av tillgångar, vilken vi tittar närmar på i denna text.
VanEck Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (NYSEArca: ANGL) är en börshandlad fond som investerar i fallna änglar, det vill säga obligationer utgivna av företag som tidigare haft ett högt kreditbetyg, investment grade, men som av olika anledningar nu har kreditbetyget spekulativa-grade. Fallen ängel emittenter tenderar att vara större och mer etablerade än många emittenter av junk bond obligationer.
Rodilosso, som arbetar som förvaltare på VanEck, säger att obligationer utgivna av fallna änglar, det vill säga de obligationer som finns i ANGL, har potentiell till värdeökningar som andra räntebärande placeringar i allmänhet saknar. Detta beror på att det ofta sker stora utförsäljningar av en obligation när företagets kreditbetyg nedgraderas, men de har en potential till en framtida uppvärdering eftersom de handlas under sitt nominella värda. Framöver sektor teman kan bidra till att stödja potentiella pris uppskattning. Dessutom kan denna grupp av företag, som ofta håller en högre snittkvalitet än traditionella junk bonds bidra till att minska svängningarna på marknaden
Håll koll på kreditspreadarna
Investerare har hållit ett öga på högavkastande obligationer eftersom kreditspreadarna just nu ligger kvar över nivån 615 punkter som är det historiska genomsnittet. Samtidigt handlas mer än 50 procent av de amerikanska skräpobligationerna under par, det vill säga nominellt värde. Råvaruprisernas kollaps, särskilt i råoljeprisets fall, har tyngt skräpobligationsmarknaden, men skadan kan sannolikt begränsas till lägre kreditkvalitet.
Lägre volatilitet med fallna änglar
Å andra sidan kan investerare som fokuserade på fallna ängeln obligationer glädja sig åt en lägre volatilitet. I förhållande till den bredare marknaden högavkastande, har fallna änglar historiskt uppvisat en större koncentration av högre kvalitet eller BB-rankade spekulativa-grade obligationer. Nackdelen är emellertid att även risken för default är lägre när det gäller fallna änglar så avspeglar detta sig i direktavkastningen. De fallna änglarna har en lägre genomsnittlig avkastning och en högre duration än traditionella junk bonds.
Rodilosso pekar på att under de senaste året har ett stort antal nya företag inom oljesektorn och råvarusegmentet tillkommit som nya fallna änglar, men att vi under året sett hur de utplanande råvarupriserna har stärkt energisektorn och basindustrin.
40 procent efterfrågar kreditkvalitén
I en nyligen genomförd undersökning framgick det att 40,7 procent av placerarna prioriterar kreditkvaliteten och att 49,6 procent letar efter investeringsmöjligheter som kan utvecklas väl. ANGL har en övervikt av högkvalitativa obligationer inom segmentet spekulativa-grade skuld, inklusive låg investment grade BBB 6,5 procent inklusive BB (75,8 procent), B (9,5 procent), CCC (3,7 procent), CC (0,1 procent) samt icke betygssatta obligationer (2,9 procent). Denna börshandlade fond har varit bland de bästa under året och har gett sina ägare en avkastning om 12,8 procent sedan årets början.
Majoriteten av de tillfrågade placerarna anser att Federal Reserve eventuella räntehöjningar kommer att vara den största risken att kreditmarknaderna för resten av året. Rodilosso beskriver tre möjliga scenarier som ränteinvesterare bör ha i åtanke.
Om Federal Reserve agerar på en arbetsmarknad och stigande kärninflation kan kreditspreadar skärpas. Om den amerikanska tillväxten avtar, kan företagskrediterna komma att svika. Slutligen, om Federal Reserve agerar med en långsam och stadig hand, kan high yield fortsätta att leverera.
ETF sector recorded substantial growth In March the ETF sector recorded substantial growth; Significant inflows in the USA in particular; In Europe Bonds ETPs were in especially in demand; By contrast Equity ETFs continued to suffer outflows in Europe
European Monthly ETF Market Review; Deutsche Bank Markets Research
Data as at: 31.03.2016
Global ETP Market In/Outflows:
March was an unusually strong month for the global ETP sector. Worldwide inflows amounted to US dollar 40.3 billion. The February inflows figure was in fact only US dollars 9.8 billion. In total, the industry now manages assets worldwide of virtually US dollar 3.0 trillion (p. 8, 17).
Equity ETFs secured the highest inflows worldwide at US dollar 23.2 billion after they had suffered substantial outflows during February. Bond ETFs attracted inflows of US dollar 13.4 billion worldwide during March which was similar to the previous month’s figure. Commodities ETPs generated inflows of US dollar 2.8 billion which showed a considerably weakened trend in comparison to February when inflows had been US dollar 9.2 billion. (p. 17)
In regional terms, the US ETP sector was the clear growth driver significantly ahead of Europe and Asia. The US market recorded net inflows of US dollar 32.4 billion. There, Equity ETFs accounted for the largest share with inflows of US dollar 21 billion. Bond ETFs generated inflows totaling US dollar 8.9 billion in the USA. (p. 17)
Both the Asian and European ETP industries continued in positive territory. Following US dollar 2.3 billion in February, the sector grew by a further US dollar 5.8 billion in March. In total the European ETF industry now manages some US dollar 523 billion. While Bond ETFs and Commodities ETPs were extremely popular in Europe, Equity ETFs suffered outflows. (p. 1, 17)
European ETF Market In/Outflows
Equities
In the European ETF sector the negative trend impacting Equity ETFs continued during March. Investors withdrew Euro 1.9 billion from this product category, which was the same amount as the month before. (p. 1. 17)
The sell-off affected Equity ETFs on industrialized countries in particular with investors withdrawing Euro 4.3 billion which was even more than the previous month (Euro 2.5
billion). ETFs on broad European indices were particularly hard hit. Investors withdrew Euro 3.5 million from this product category. (p. 19)
At a country level, Equity ETFs on German equities were one of the losers with outflows of Euro 284 million, while by contrast Equity ETFs on British titles recorded inflows of Euro 448 million. (p. 4, 19).
Conversely ETFs on Emerging Markets equities were in demand during March. This product category secured inflows of Euro 1.4 billion. Most of this money was targeted at broadly diversified Emerging Markets indices (a plus of Euro 990 million). In addition, Asia/Pacific region Equity ETFs proved popular. They recorded inflows of Euro 153 million. (p. 20)
The Equities category that attracted particularly high levels of inflows in March was once again Strategy and Style ETFs at Euro 871 million and Euro 498 million respectively. Within these groups, quantitatively focused ETFs with inflows of Euro 795 million, as well as Dividend ETFs at Euro 408 million, were especially notable.
(p.4, 18)
Bonds
In March the major winners in the European ETF sector included Bond ETFs. They recorded significant inflows amounting to Euro 6.1 billion, following Euro 1.4 billion inflows in February. (p. 4, 21)
Corporate Bonds contributed the largest share by far with a plus of Euro 5 billion. ETFs on Sovereign Bonds recorded inflows Euro 525 million. By contrast, investors withdrew Euro 212 million from Money Market titles. (p. 21)
Commodities
Commodities ETPs also continued their positive trend from the previous month. They generated inflows of Euro 1.1 billion, after Euro 2.5 billion in January. (p. 4, 22)
Gold ETPs once again were one of the winners. The attracted a further Euro 844 million in March after Euro 2.2 billion in February. Silver ETPs recorded inflows of Euro 144 million. ETPs on Crude Oil, however, suffered slight outflows (minus Euro 78 million). (p. 4, 22).
Most Popular Indices
In terms of Equities, investors had their sights on ETFs on the MSCI Emerging Markets during March. In addition, products on the S&P 500 and the MSCI World were some of the most popular basis titles. (p. 23)
The most popular Bond ETFs were mainly ETFs on Corporate Bond Indices.
However, products on Emerging Markets and Sovereign Bonds from industrialized
countries made it to the Top 10. (p. 23)
