De populäraste valutorna och varför de är så populära

De populäraste valutorna och varför de är så populäraDe populäraste valutorna och varför de är så populära

Forexmarknaden är världens största och mest likvida marknad, med triljoner dollar som handlas varje dag mellan miljontals parter. För de som precis börjat på forexmarknaden är ett av de första stegen att bekanta sig med några av de mer vanligt förekommande valutorna och deras populära användningsområden. Detta gäller inte bara för valutamarknaden utan också generellt. Låt oss ta en titt på flera populära valutor som alla forex observatörer ska känna till och några av de bakomliggande egenskaperna hos varje. Vi har tittat på de populäraste valutorna och varför de är så populära.

 

Den Amerikanska dollarn

Först och främst finns den amerikanska dollarn, som är den mest omsatta valutan på planeten. USD kan handlas i ett par med alla andra större valutor och fungerar ofta som mellanhand i triangelvalutatransaktioner. Detta beror på att USD fungerar som den oförutsedda globala reservvalutan, som innehas av nästan alla centralbanker och institutionella investeringsföretag i världen.

På grund av amerikanska dollarns globala acceptans, används den av vissa länder som en officiell valuta, i motsats till en lokal valuta, en ökning som kallas dollarization. Dessutom accepteras amerikanska dollarn allmänt i andra nationer, som fungerar som en informell alternativ betalningsform, medan de här nationerna behåller sin officiella lokala valuta.

Dollarn är också en viktig faktor på valutamarknaden för andra valutor. Den kan fungera som riktmärke eller målränta för länder som väljer att fixa eller pegga sina valutor till USD-värdet. Från och med 2011 har Kina sin valuta, renminbien, som fortfarande är knuten till dollarn, något som retar många ekonomer och centralbanker. Oftast väljer länderna att fixa sina växelkurser till USD för att stabilisera sin växelkurs snarare än att låta de fria (valutamarknaderna) fluktuera.

Euron

Även om denna valuta är relativt ny har euron snabbt blivit den näst mest omsatta valutan efter den amerikanska dollarn. Dessutom är euron världens näst största reservvaluta. Euron är officiella valutan för majoriteten av nationerna inom euroområdet. Euron introducerades på världsmarknaden den 1 januari 1999, med sedlar och mynt som trädde i omlopp tre år senare.

Utöver att vara den officiella valutan för de flesta euroländer, knyter många nationer inom Europa och Afrika sina valutor till euron. Detta av samma skäl som valutorna är knutna till dollarn – för att stabilisera växelkursen.

Euron som en allmänt använd och betrodd valuta som är den mycket utbredd i forexmarknaden, och lägger till likviditet i valfritt valutapar som det handlas i. Euron handlas gemensamt av spekulanter som ett spel på euroområdets och dess medlemsländers allmänna hälsa. Politiska händelser inom euroområdet kan ofta leda till stora handelsvolymer för euron. Detta gäller särskilt i förhållande till de länder som såg sina lokala räntor falla drastiskt vid införandet av euron, särskilt Italien, Grekland, Spanien och Portugal. Euron kan vara den mest ”politiserade” valutan som handlas aktivt på valutamarknaden.

Den japanska yenen

Den japanska yenen är den mest omsatta valutan från Asien och ses av många som en proxy för den underliggande styrkan i Japans tillverkningsekonomi. När Japans ekonomi går bra, så går yenen (i vissa avseenden) bra. Många använder yenen för att mäta den övergripande hälsan i Stilla Havs-regionen, med beaktande av ekonomier som Sydkorea, Singapore och Thailand, eftersom dessa valutor handlas långt mindre på de globala valutamarknaden.

Yenen är också välkänd i forex cirklar för sin roll i carry trade. Med Japan som i princip har en nollräntepolitik under en stor del av 1990-talet och 2000-talet har handlarna lånat yenen nästan utan kostnad. De har sedan använt dessa för att investera i andra högre valutor runt om i världen, vilket berodde på skillnaderna i räntorna. Med carry trade som en så stor del av yenens närvaro på internationell nivå har den japanska valutans ständiga upplåning gjort uppvärdering till en svår uppgift. Även om yenen fortfarande handlar med samma grunder som någon annan valuta, är dess förhållande till internationella räntor, särskilt med de mer omsatta valutorna som dollarn och euron en stor determinant för yenens värde.

Det brittiska pundet

Det brittiska pundet, även känt som pund sterling, är den fjärde mest omsatta valutan på valutamarknaden. Det fungerar också som en stor reservvaluta på grund av dess relativa värde jämfört med andra globala valutor. Även om Storbritannien är en officiell medlem i Europeiska unionen valde landet att inte anta euron som sin officiella valuta av olika skäl. Till exempel historisk stolthet i pundet och upprätthållande av kontrollen över inhemska räntor. Av denna anledning kan pundet ses som ett rent spel på Storbritannien. Forexhandlare kommer ofta att basera sitt värde på den totala styrkan i den brittiska ekonomin och politisk stabilitet i sin regering. På grund av sitt höga värde gentemot andra valutor är pundet också ett viktigt valutaindex för många nationer och fungerar som en väldigt likvid komponent på valutamarknaden.

Den Schweiziska francen

Den schweiziska francen ses av många som en ”neutral” valuta. Mer korrekt betraktas den schweiziska francen som en tillflyktsort inom valutamarknaden, främst på grund av att schweizerfrancen tenderar att röra sig i en negativ korrelation med mer volatila råvaruvalutor som kanadensiska och australiensiska dollar tillsammans med amerikanska statsskuldväxlar. Den schweiziska nationalbanken har faktiskt varit känd för att vara ganska aktiv på valutamarknaden för att se till att francen handlas relativt snävt, att minska volatiliteten och hålla räntorna i linje.

Den kanadensiska Dollarn

Sist på vår lista tittar vi på den kanadensiska dollarn, även känd som loonie. Loonie är förmodligen världens främsta råvaruvaluta, vilket innebär att den rör sig i takt med råvarumarknaderna. Detta gäller särskilt råolja, ädelmetaller och mineraler. Med Kanada som sådan en stor exportör av sådana varor är loonien mycket flyktig mot rörelser i sina underliggande priser, särskilt råolja. Traders handlar ofta den kanadensiska dollarn för att spekulera på rörelserna för dessa varor eller som en hedge mot sina innehav i de underliggande kontrakten.

Dessutom ligger Kanada i närheten av världens största konsumentbas, USA. Detta gör att den kanadensiska ekonomin och den kanadensiska dollarn är högt korrelerad med styrkan i amerikansk ekonomi och rörelser i amerikansk dollar.

Slutsats

Som vi har sett har varje valuta särskilda egenskaper som påverkar dess underliggande värde och prisrörelser i förhållande till andra valutor på valutamarknaden. Förstå vad som rör en valuta och varför är ett avgörande steg för att bli en framgångsrik aktör på valutamarknaden.

CAD heading lower

CAD heading lower

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – CAD heading lower

Highlights

  • The CAD has decoupled from oil prices as economic prospects wane.
  • Bank of Canada (BoC) has indicated that further stimulus was considered at the latest monetary policy meeting.
  • Weaker oil prices should see short positions mount against the CAD and the USD/CAD climb higher.

Oil prices offer little support

Since OPEC took the surprise decision to limit production last month crude benchmarks have managed to settle in a new trading range in and around the psychologically important $50/bbl level. Typically, this move would have lent support to the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against its major currency counterparts (due to its status as a commodity currency) but on this occasion it has failed to do so (see Figure 1). Instead, the currency has suffered from a widening nominal yield differential with the US (see Figure 1) and meagre economic prospects. This has helped to keep the USD/CAD moving on a well-established upward path for some time and the trend appears well placed to continue. We see a high likelihood of upcoming oil price weakness and an increasingly dovish bias from the Bank of Canada (BoC) helping to push the pair higher in the next few months. (click to enlarge)

Crude fragility and dovish inclinations

Earlier this week, comments from the Iraqi oil minister claiming that the embattled nation should be exempt from any OPEC production agreement highlighted the challenges the cartel faces in imposing any limits. Several of its members are facing significant financial and geopolitical pressures (Iraq, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia etc.) and so applying country level quotas is almost certain to face obstacles. Until now the market has perceived the deal optimistically but the difficult practicalities of implementing the agreement are likely to see oil prices retrace a portion of their recent gains. This will likely add to bearish sentiment against the CAD and may prompt a monetary reaction from the BoC. Recent comments and actions from the BoC have been mixed. At the latest meeting the central bank held interest rates steady (as broadly expected) and described risks to the inflation outlook as “roughly balanced”, a positive shift from “tilted to the downside” in the previous meeting. However in a surprising turn, the BoC governor, Stephen Poloz, did mention that the governing council “actively discussed the possibility of adding more stimulus”. In addition, the BoC reduced both its inflation and growth forecasts for this year and the next. While these actions failed to inspire a market repricing of future interest cuts, it does show a return to a dovish bias which may grow if manufacturing, trade and inflation data continue to disappoint.
(click to enlarge)

Shorts could mount

Net speculative positioning towards the CAD fell into negative territory at the end of last month, but still remains moderate. The move resulted from a reduction in long positions rather than a build-up in shorts, which remain a fraction of January levels due to recent strength in oil prices (see Figure 2). Any weakness in oil could see shorts build up and send the USD/CAD to higher levels. The pair is on a strong upward path and is only likely to face resistance at the 1.356 level, which is near March highs and would represent a 50% retracement of its decline earlier in the year. Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

EUR Base

ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD) ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE)

GBP Base

ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA) ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB)

USD Base

ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD) ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD)

3x

ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3) ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5) ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5)

Currency Baskets

ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM) ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors. The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks. Securities issued by FXL are direct, limited recourse obligations of FXL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith. The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley to determine whether Morgan Stanley’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley.  

Loonie set for near term tumble

Loonie set for near term tumble

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – Loonie set for near term tumble

Highlights

  • The tentative agreement reached by OPEC last Wednesday has sent oil prices to the top of their recent range and lent support to oil linked currencies.
  • In practice the production limit will be hard to implement and oil prices will likely retrace gains in coming months.
  • The CAD looks to continue its downtrend as extended positioning corrects lower and monetary conditions are eased.
  • OPEC surprises markets
Global crude benchmarks and oil linked currencies jumped last Wednesday on news that members of OPEC had tentatively agreed to implement a production target for the first time in seven years. Both commodity and currency markets responded positively to the surprise deal that was viewed broadly as an unlikely prospect due to long standing differences between key group members, Saudi Arabia and Iran. While the deal certainly marks a shift in stance of the oil exporting group, we do not believe it is enough to sustain support for the CAD which is at risk from a confluence of bearish factors, specifically underwhelming economic performance, stretched speculative positioning and technical resistance. We therefore see current levels as an attractive point to gain long exposure to the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD currency pairs which are set to benefit from near term oil weakness.

Symbolic but not practical

We believe the uplift in the oil market provided by the latest OPEC agreement will not last for long as the practicalities of the arrangement and wider concerns over slowing global oil demand growth keep oil prices contained. The deal itself, while an important move symbolically, did not provide a definite promise to remove a significant amount of output from the global oil market (removing anywhere from 200-700k barrels per day (bpd)) and requires the implementation of country level quotas. This is a large and politically sensitive task and is unlikely to be completed before the next OPEC meeting in November. In addition, the deal failed to provide clarity over conditions for countries under duress such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya where production is currently far below capacity, but has the potential to increase in the interim. Thus, support from oil prices is therefore likely to be absent for the CAD in the coming months. (Click to enlarge)

CAD underperforms NOK

While both the NOK and CAD are heavily linked to the oil price, prospects for the two currencies have recently diverged. Latest growth and inflation data from Norway has surpassed the expectations of its central bank, causing the Norges bank’s Executive Board to deliver a more hawkish policy message and raise its projected rate path. In contrast, lacklustre inflation, retail sales and manufacturing data has prompted a more dovish tone from the Bank of Canada (BoC), which makes it increasingly likely to ease monetary policy at its upcoming meetings. This has been reflected in the relative outperformance of the NOK in the past month, which has rallied by 2.8% relative to CAD on a trade weighted basis (see Figure 1).

Positioning stretched

The USD/CAD and EUR/CAD are on strong longer term upward trends (CAD weakening) which look well placed to continue. Net speculative positioning underpinning the CAD is hovering at record highs and looks increasingly subject to a correction. A fall in oil prices or further easing by the BoC could see CAD longs (which are at the strongest level in two years) fall sharply and shorts gather momentum, exacerbating any rise in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs: Currency ETPs EUR Base ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD) ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE) GBP Base ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA) ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB) USD Base ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD) ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD) 3x ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3) ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3) 5x ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5) ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5) Currency Baskets ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM) ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors. The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks. Securities issued by FXL are direct, limited recourse obligations of FXL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith. The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley to determine whether Morgan Stanley’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley.

Misplaced hopes create opportunity

Misplaced hopes create opportunity

ETF Securities FX Weekly – Misplaced hopes create opportunity

Weekly currency investment views from ETF Securities

Misplaced hopes create opportunity

Summary

Oil prices have rebounded recently over speculation of an output freeze by major producers.

Market hopes appear misplaced and near term disappointment will likely lead to a correction in the coming month.

This presents a tactical opportunity to short the CAD and NOK, which currently sit at multi month highs against major currency counterparts

Download investment view (.pdf)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Currency gains continue for oil exporters

Currency gains continue for oil exporters

Market Insight – Foreign Exchange – Currency gains continue for oil exporters

Oil strength buoys CAD and NOK

The CAD and NOK have risen 9.4%* on average against the US Dollar in 2016, closely tracking the recent unrelenting rise in oil prices from their trough in February (see Figure 1). The rally comes despite both the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Norges Bank outlining concerns over the health of their respective domestic petroleum industries and the impact of weaker global environment on national exports. While in the longer term these issues could pose risks, in the very near term it is likely that oil prices will continue to display strength and boost the CAD and NOK further.

Figure 1: Crude rally lifts oil currencies

(click to enlarge)

Latest oil move justified

Unlike previous rallies which have been purely speculative, the latest leg up in oil prices appears more sustainable, having being driven, at least in part, by improving fundamentals. In its latest report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that its long held belief that the global oil market will balance by the third quarter of this year is starting to take shape. US oil supply cuts appear to be gathering momentum, global demand remains robust and further production increases from the OPEC oil cartel look increasingly unlikely (see Figure 2, ETFS Commodities Research: Oil rally has legs).

Downward trend looks strong

From a technical perspective the current downward trend in the USD/CAD and USD/NOK appears well established, with the 50 daily moving average (DMA) crossing below the 100 DMA last month* for both pairs, a typically bearish indicator. For the CAD the current trend has also been reaffirmed by net speculative positioning, which has turned positive for the first time in over three years as an increasing number of investors start to acquire long exposure.

Figure 2: Global oil market to balance

(click to enlarge)

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.