Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update
Top recommendations for November: Corporate HY, and US, European, Indian, and Chinese equities.
US Large Cap-Small Cap positive spread supported by ETF flows
In October the Large Caps (SPY) outperformance over Small Caps (IWM) reached levels above 3% towards the month’s end. Interestingly, we saw a clear flow divergence between these two segments during the first half of the month with Large Caps receiving inflows and Small Caps recording outflows, before both segments began to receive inflows consistently (Figure 1).
Corporate credit ETFs received largest monthly allocations ever on risk comeback during October
US Treasury ETF flows opened with a strong momentum following the recent safe-haven trends; however the trend began to revert just before the mid-month mark. In the meantime, Corporate credit ETFs went on to register one of their strongest flow trends on record, fueled by the largest-ever dollar monthly flow allocations received by HY (+$5.5bn) and IG (+$3.3bn) as investors orchestrated a comeback to risk assets (Figure 2).
Tactical positioning for November 2015 based on TAARSS
Prefer global equities and high-beta-to-equity fixed income segments such as HY corporate credit. Continue to avoid commodities.
Prefer a balanced global equity approach including US, Intl DM and EM.
For US equity exposure prefer large caps, with support favoring particularly Consumer Staples and Tech.
For Intl DM equities prefer Europe over Asia Pacific, stay neutral to Japan. Implement Europe via regional exposures rather than country allocations.
For EM equities, continue to prefer Asia over Latin America and Eastern Europe. Within Asia we prefer India and China.
In Fixed Income, prefer credit over rates. Implement this via corporate IG or HY credit; while avoiding US Treasuries.
As of the end of July 2015, global ETP assets stood at $2.9 trillion with European ETP assets at $508bn (€459bn). In July, European ETPs continued its positive trend from the previous month and registered net inflows of +€7.5bn (+€1.4bn in the prev. month). Equity and fixed income ETFs both benefitted from inflows, receiving +€6.1bn and +€2.2bn respectively. Commodity ETPs listed in Europe saw outflows of -€0.8bn during the same period.
US Sector, Quant and China Sovereign bond product launches
State Street launched 9 sector ETFs that provide exposure to US equity GICS sectors. Lyxor launched 6 quantitative strategy equity ETFs in July while Deutsche Bank listed Europe’s first fixed income ETF providing exposure to Chinese Government bonds.
European equities continue to be favoured while fixed income ETF reverses trend to experience inflows.
European and US listed ETFs with European Equity exposure observed strong monthly inflows benefitting from +$4bn (+$19.4bn YTD inflows) and +$3.2bn (+$34bn YTD) respectively following the Greek resolution. We also observed a reversal trend in the fixed income space where Sovereign (+€1bn) and Corporate Bonds (+€1bn) dominated inflows. This follows two consecutive months of outflows.
European listed ETFs tracking Chinese equities experiences small outflows despite $8bn inflows into the market through Asian listings
The recent Chinese stock market fall had spurred the Chinese Government to take measures to mitigate the risk of a continued sell-off. This market volatility had elevated trading activity in ETFs tracking China globally. Investors trading European listed Chinese ETFs were net sellers (-€218mn). However in Asia, ETFs tracking Chinese equities benefited from large inflows of +$8.1bn.
Gold loses its shine while crude oil witness inflows
In July, Gold based ETPs witnessed outflows of -€0.7bn amid falling gold prices. Commodity prices have recently taken a hit following concerns of lower demand from China. Crude oil ETPs, which have been registering inflows since start of the year continued its positive run in July by registered inflows of +€266mn (YTD net flow at +€1.1bn). This is despite the fact that the oil price has been in a downward trend.
Arabica coffee slid 4.2% as Colombian production continues to rise.
FTSE 100 recouped weekly losses after the election result.
Euro downside risk as Greek tension mounts.
Contrary to pre-election polls, the UK has managed to secure a majority government, averting the chaos that many had expected would follow in forming a stable coalition. UK equities and the Pound Sterling strengthened on the news after a week of losses. Meanwhile, with a debt payment due to the IMF tomorrow by Greece, the market is seeking hedges against a potential accident should Euro area finance ministers fail to avoid brinkmanship in their discussions with the cash-strapped nation today. The Chinese central bank cut interest rates yesterday, providing a tailwind for Chinese equities and cyclical commodities.
Commodities
Arabica coffee slid 4.2% as Colombian production continues to rise. The Colombian Coffee Growers Federation reported that the country’s coffee production for April grew 11.06% year-on-year. However, Colombia only produces 11% of global Arabica output. Brazil who produces 45% of global output, has had significant drought damage to its coffee bushes in 2014 threatening the yield in 2015. While some were optimistic about a reversal of that damage due to beneficial rain in Minas Gerais (a key growing area) in recent months, precipitation over the past week has moderated significantly. Added to that, a firmer Brazilian Real removes a catalyst for stock-offloading by Brazilian farmers. We believe that coffee prices could benefit from a tightening in supply from Brazil. While zinc, nickel and copper rose on the hopes of tighter supply this year, aluminum fell moderating the gains from the previous week.
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Equities
FTSE 100 recouped weekly losses after the election result. With markets having braced themselves for chaos, the election results led to a relief rally when a majority government was formed. The MSCI China A-Share index fell 6.4%, moderating its gains after reaching a 7-year high the week prior. A disappointing Chinese manufacturing PMI reading and weaker trade figures deflated some of the optimism in the market. However, that disappointment let to interest rate cut effective today, which should provide the equity markets with a shot of adrenalin. Moreover, with further financial market liberalization on the cards for this year, we expect the domestic equity to undergo a period of secular expansion. This week, a number of Chinese data releases including industrial production and retail sales will help the central bank and investors assess the strength of the near-term growth.
Currencies
Euro downside risk as Greek tension mounts. The Euro has been one of the most volatile currencies this year and this week is unlikely to change that trend. We expect that this week’s Greek negotiations pose a downside threat, especially as the Euro remains elevated against the USD, despite last week’s strong jobs report in the US. We believe the soft patch in US economic activity will begin to fade and support a further rally in the USD. The British Pound was one of the strongest performing currencies last week, following the surprise Conservative majority victory in the general election. Investors will be looking ahead to the Bank of England meeting this week to gauge the central banks desire to hike rates. We expect that tighter policy is a long way off and that GBP/USD will gradually move back toward the levels it was trading at pre-election levels near 1.50.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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