Strong price performance drives gold rush

ETF Securities Strong price performance drives gold rushStrong price performance drives gold rush

Commodity ETP Weekly –  Strong price performance drives gold rush

Highlights

  • Gold inflows surge to highest level since August 2015 as the metal remains one of the best performing assets year-to-date.
  • Oil inflows continue for the eighth consecutive week as investor’s position for continued recovery.
  • Inflows into broad commodity baskets rose to a five week high as negative sentiment towards the beleaguered asset class begins to thaw.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Upcoming webinar – Cyber Security and Robotics, 2016 Investment OutlookDate: 23 February 2016 | Time: 3.00 pm (GMT) | Duration: 50 minutes

Gain an insight into what 2016 holds for these two key emerging investment themes. Listen to our two experts: Richard Lightbound, CEO, ROBO Global Europe and Asia, and Christian Magoon, CEO, YieldShares talk about how the key firms associated with these themes are starting to see demand for their products and services take off.

Register to attend

Gold ETP inflows of US$108.5mn last week were the highest since August 2015. Gold has been one of the best performing assets this year and is up 9.1% year-to-date, compared to S&P 500 (-6.3%) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (-3.2%). Volatile cyclical asset performance has driven investors toward the defensive asset, while a weakening US dollar has been supportive for gold’s performance in dollar terms. Although investor fears about weaker real economic data maybe somewhat misplaced, the headlines of weak durable goods orders and below-expectation payroll figures could add to US dollar negativity. We believe there will be a brief period in which US dollar will appreciate again as investors realize the their reading of economic data and market volatility does not tally with the Fed’s view that the labour market is tightening and price pressures are mounting. However, once the market and Fed thinking are once again aligned, US dollar will depreciate again (following a familiar historic pattern of selling-off when rate increases crystalise).

Long oil ETPs received US$37.9mn, marking the eighth consecutive week of inflows. Furthermore short oil ETPs saw US$10.2mn of outflows. Brent oil gained 1.7% as investors remained optimistic that Venezuela would be able to convince Saudi Arabia to help reduce production at their meeting yesterday. However, there has been very little sign that the meeting has yielded any results and we expect Brent to decline in the very short-term and return to trading at a discount to WTI. WTI, being a more US-focused benchmark, lacked the same tail-wind as Brent last week and fell 4.5% last week. Over the course of this year we, expect global oil to be in a supply deficit as non- OPEC oil production is cut while demand continues to rise, which will provide an upward catalyst to prices.

Inflows into diversified commodity baskets hit a 4 week high. After a rocky start to the year for cyclical assets, most industrial metals and a broad range of agricultural commodities posted a gain in the past week. That is an encouraging sign that markets are looking past the weakness in some economic indicators that were too heavily influenced by weather and other idiosyncratic factors. However, with the Chinese New Year starting and the associated lack of data published during this period, we could see some more volatility in industrial metal prices as speculation of Chinese weakness cannot be quelled by facts. Inflows across diversified commodity baskets amounted to US$21.7mn last week.

Profit-taking saw US$12.4mn flow out of aluminium ETPs. Aluminium prices bounced 1.1% last week and are up 4.6% in the past month. The recent price moves gave some investors an opportunity to take profit.

Key events to watch this week. Janet Yellen, will testify to Congress, providing investors some insight into the Fed Chair’s thoughts on the state of the US economy

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.