Etikett: commodity markets

Defensives gain as ”Trumpflation” fades

Defensives gain as "Trumpflation" fadesDefensives gain as ”Trumpflation” fades

Commodity Monthly Monitor Defensives gain as ”Trumpflation” fades Your reference guide to commodity markets. Includes the latest outlook for each commodity sector and major developments for individual commodities.

Summary

•    Agricultural prices under pressure from rising global output.

•    Industrial metals saw their prices plummet as “Trumpflation” is fading away.

•    Crude oil gains as market remains optimistic on an OPEC deal extension.

•    The rise of geopolitical risks after US air strikes against Syria boost precious metals.

Globally, economic growth is becoming more broad-based, although growth rates remain well below their 40 year average in the developed world. US interest rates are beginning a steady rate hike path. Core inflationary pressures in the rest of the developed world are broadly rising, suggesting other central banks will have to follow the Federal Reserve or risk “falling behind the curve”. We question if interest rate normalisation can occur with so much government debt and such low productivity, and consequently see central banks having to strike a very fine balance between the twin dangers of inflation and recession. Increasing commodity prices have been a primary driver of inflation in recent years. The rise of populism and potential reversal of globalisation could further stoke inflationary pressures, but these trends are contingent on the delivery of political campaign promises, which look increasingly difficult. We see central bankers beginning to adopt a form of dovish monetary policy tightening, preferring to allow inflation to run above target. Sentiment towards commodities has just come off all-time highs, highlighting “peak bullishness”. In a broader context for commodities, given that prices are generally below the marginal cost of production, global growth continues to improve and we are seeing the early signs of supply side destruction, the fundamentals remain intact. It just maybe worth waiting for speculative positioning to cool down a little bit.

  • Agricultural prices under pressure from rising global output. Soft commodities, sugar and cocoa, led the declines in the agricultural sector as favourable growing conditions in South America (for sugar) and Africa (for cocoa) prompted better crop harvest. The trend looks set to continue.
  • Industrial metals saw their prices plummet as “Trumpflation” is fading away. Market participants are acknowledging the divergence between the US President’s promises during his campaign and what he is able to deliver. The Sentix Sentiment on US economy expectations started to fade recently. We however remain positive on the complex in the longer run on robust fundamentals and the enforcement of China environmental policy.
  • Crude oil gains as market remains optimistic on an OPEC deal extension. Following strong compliance by individual member countries toward the deal to cut production, the market is optimistic that the deal will be extended. With poor compliance from non-member countries and surging US production, we are more pessimistic than the market.
  • The rise of geopolitical risks after US air strikes against Syria boost precious metals. Gold and silver rebounded by 5% on average over the past month as investors poured money into safe haven assets. The tensions between the US and Russia, and the US and North Korea should continue to support gold prices in the near term

For followers of our CONTRARIAN MODEL we have the following signals this month.

BUY                              TICKER Soybean                       SOYB , ESOY (EUR Hedged) LSOB (2x) Soybean Oil                 SOYO, LSYO (2x)

SELL Gold                             SBUL, 3AUS (3x short) Silver                           SSIL, SI3S (3x short) Live Cattle                   SLCT

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities’ products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors. The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Dovish tightening to support precious metals

Dovish tightening to support precious metals

Commodity Monthly Monitor – Dovish tightening to support precious metals Your reference guide to commodity markets. Includes the latest outlook for each commodity sector and major developments for individual commodities.

Summary

  • Agricultural prices took a dip while waiting for this month’s planting report as a new catalyst.
  • The reflation trade for industrial metals takes a breather.
  • Downside risks for oil as US producers offset OPEC cuts.
  • Precious metals set to recover as net speculative positions rebound and investors look for signs of further Fed dovishness.
The surprise confluence of Federal Reserve (Fed) members’ views into a more hawkish rhetoric in the last month was particularly detrimental for commodity prices. This negative sentiment reversed when rhetoric from the Fed monetary policy announcement highlighted a dovish stance, implying a tolerance and preference for higher inflation relative to the costs of tightening too early. It highlights how sensitive commodities, particularly precious metals, are to US monetary policy and how much it is likely to govern the path for commodity prices in the coming year. We continue to believe, despite continued rate hikes this year that the Fed’s rhetoric will remain dovish due to heightened fiscal uncertainty. Following a 5 year hiatus in commodities, the prices of broad commodities have recovered over the last year having risen 20% from their lows in early 2016. It now looks like sentiment, as measured by CFTC futures positioning, has moved from peak bearishness in 2016 to peak bullishness in 2017. The bullish positioning implies that we could see a short-term setback in commodities as futures positioning mean reverts. We believe the fundamentals remain attractive for the longer-term given that prices are generally below the marginal cost of production, global growth continues to improve and we are seeing the early signs of supply side destruction. After the sharp decline in wheat planting for the forthcoming crop year, the market is eagerly awaiting the Prospective Planting report – that will be released at the end of this month – to see how much farmers may trim back on planting of other crops. However, in the past month most agricultural prices declined as production from the current crop year continues to exceed expectations. The reflation trade for industrial metals takes a breather. Many of the best performing industrial metals last month reversed their gains this month as investors digested the impact of a month heavy with macro drivers: rate hikes by both the US Federal Reserve and China’s PBoC, downgrade in China’s economic growth target for this year, and disappointment with the lack of details surrounding President’s Trump infrastructure plans. Downside risks for oil as US producers offset OPEC cuts. Oil prices have slumped as global production remains buoyant despite the announced output cuts from OPEC and some OPEC allies, like Russia. Further downside is likely in coming months as US oil production and inventories continue to increase and the motivation of OPEC producers to limit output wanes. Precious metals set to recover as net speculative positions rebound and investors look for signs of further Fed dovishness. All precious metals fell by 4.6% on average over the past month as the probability of a US Federal Reserve rate hike became a near-certainty. While populism faced its first defeat with the Dutch election, the Fed’s dovish tone is likely to provide support for the yellow metal a little longer.

Sliding Oil Prices Attract Bargain Hunters

Sliding Oil Prices Attract Bargain Hunters

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly – Sliding Oil Prices Attract Bargain Hunters

Highlights

•  Long WTI and Brent crude oil ETPs received US$ 48.2mn and US$12.0mn respectively marking the seventh consecutive week of inflows into oil ETPs.

•  Outflows of US$106.2mn from gold ETPs marked the 13th consecutive week of redemptions.

•  Agricultural ETPs continue to see strong inflows.

•  Outflows from ETFS leveraged Coffee (LCFE) rose to the highest level in 10 weeks.

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The depreciation of the Yuan against the US dollar by 3.4 percent last week caused by reform to the fixing method sent reverberations across commodity markets, revitalizing gold’s safe haven status. In addition the sluggish European GDP data sparked concerns on the strength of the European economic recovery. The PMI data in Europe and Industrial production figures will remain in focus this week.

Long WTI and Brent crude oil ETPs received US$ 48.2mn and US$12.0mn respectively marking the seventh consecutive week of inflows into oil ETPs. The monthly report by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) confirmed that OPEC continues to keep the world oversupplied as their collective output surpassed 31.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) compared to their target of 30 mb/d. Bargain hunters took support from the monthly International Energy Agency (IEA) report that revised the 2015 global growth outlook upwards, raising demand expectations by 1.6mb/d in 2015, by the fastest pace in five years. The weekly US Energy Information Agency (EIA) report showed US crude oil supplies fell by 1.7m barrels, just shy of expectations. However EIA crude stocks are 86.5mn barrels above year ago levels and 93.2mn barrels above the five year average. The WTI crude oil price fell to a 6½ year low of US$41.3 per barrel considerably lower than its global counterpart Brent oil that hovered below US$50 per barrel leading to a widening price gap US$7 per barrel, last seen in May 2015. This has been blamed on rising storage levels at Cushing. Crude oil imports for the week stood at 7.5mb/d compared to 7.18mb/d the previous week. Evidently China took advantage of lower oil prices by importing a record volume of 30.71mn tons of crude oil in the first 7 months of the year up 10% since a year ago.

Outflows of US$106.2mn from gold ETPs marked the 13th consecutive week of redemptions. China’s change in currency policy lent support to gold, which rose to a three-week high of $1120/oz. ETP investors took profit, reaccelerating redemptions, which seemed to have slowed the week prior. The World Gold council (WGC) highlighted just how weak demand for the yellow metal was in Q2, with consumer demand in India and China falling 25% and 3% respectively. The industry body however expects current low prices to ignite consumer demand in these countries in a similar way to 2013.

Agricultural ETPs continue to see strong inflows. ETFS Agriculture (AIGA), ETFS Wheat (WEAT) and ETFS Corn (CORN) each saw their third consecutive week of inflows, of US$6.6mn, US$2.3mn and US$2.6mn respectively. In its latest monthly report, the USDA raised its US corn production forecasts by 1.2% driving its price down 1.6% over the week. However, with an intensifying El Nino likely to disrupt production later this year, ETP investors accumulated positions in corn in anticipation of a price rebound.

Outflows from ETFS leveraged Coffee (LCFE) rose to the highest level in 10 weeks. Arabica coffee prices rose 10.3% last week, driving profit-taking. Prices rose despite IBGE, the Brazilian government’s official statistics institute raising its forecast by 800k bags for the Brazilian coffee crop to 44.2m bags.

Key events to watch this week Investors will continue to remain focused on PMI data in Europe and industrial production in the US.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Lingering Threats Depress Investor Sentiment

Lingering Threats Depress Investor Sentiment

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Lingering Threats Depress Investor Sentiment

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Highlights

Stars align for commodity markets.

China equity markets higher, but volatility reigns.

USD weakness unlikely to last.

Concern about Greek finances, alongside disappointing German growth data resulted in European equity benchmarks finishing the week in the red. In contrast, Chinese equities moved higher in choppy trade as soft data lifted expectations of further stimulus from policymakers. Defensive investors prompted a gold rally, with its perception as a hedge against lingering threats to the economic environment increasing its appeal. We expect the soft US economic data will fade and the growth divergence with the Eurozone will again become pronounced and pull forward expectations for a rate hike, in turn lifting the USD.

Commodities

Stars align for commodity markets. Natural gas surged following expectations of warmer US weather is boosting demand for natural gas to fuel additional demands for power. With storage remaining adequate and not far from the longer-term average level, we expect the duration of this rally to be short-lived. Rising bond market volatility and a weaker US Dollar buoyed precious metals markets, with silver leading the way. Gold was also buoyant as investors remain cautious and European equities traded choppy ranges. With silver remaining strongly tied to gold, the key for a sustainable rally in silver lies in rising industrial demand. A good indicator of whether this demand component is rising is stockpiles which unfortunately are not showing signs of decline yet. If sentiment improves, a correction could lie in wait.
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Equities

China equity markets higher, but volatility reigns. Chinese equities received a boost despite a string of poor economic data, as investors were optimistic that Chinese authorities will introduce additional stimulus measures to buoy the economy. Choppy trading has characterised Chinese equity markets and we expect that is unlikely to disappear in the near term, until investors see a more stable underlying economic environment. Certainly both the Reserve Requirement Ratio remains elevated and we expect that the RRR and official rates could be lowered in coming months. Meanwhile, European equity markets lost ground as weaker growth in Germany in Q1 added to the negative tone surrounding the lingering threat of Greek default. UK equity markets also struggled after the Bank of England downgraded its outlook for UK economic growth. Although we expect potential for further near term setbacks, in the medium term, equity valuations should be bolstered by rising demand on the back of low financing costs as a result of low policy rates and depressed energy prices.

Currencies

USD weakness unlikely to last. We expect the recent batch of soft US economic data to be an aberration rather than the beginning of a trend and this should gradually translate into USD strength. This week’s FOMC minutes will be balanced, in line with previous communications, but should keep rate hikes on the table. While the market has pushed back rate hike forecasts somewhat in recent weeks and is currently expecting the first increase in November, we expect a September move. Central banks will continue to be in the spotlight, with both the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan holding meetings. While there should be little change in UK policy, if Japanese industrial production and Q1 GDP growth disappoint, that could be the catalyst to provoke the BOJ to act, and in turn pushing the USD/JPY higher toward our year-end target of 125.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

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China GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

China GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly China GDP in Focus After Rare Cut

Industrial metals see fifth consecutive week of inflows.

Silver price drops back to attractive level, prompting inflows as gold sees more outflows.

Long WTI ETPs see largest outflows since 2010, ahead of US weekly inventory data.

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China’s latest stimulus – cutting its repo rate – has helped support industrial metals and a solid GDP result this week will give more impetus to commodity markets. Chinese commodity exports rebounded in March in another sign of a stabilization in demand and going into a strong seasonal period, cyclical commodities like industrial metals, should be well supported. Defensive commodities like gold will be in the spotlight this week, as investors look ahead to Eurozone CPI and the US retail sales data releases to gauge the pace of policy divergence in 2015. Eurozone CPI releases will be key for this week’s ECB meeting discussions.

Industrial metals see fifth consecutive week of inflows. Value investors appear to be wading back into the industrial metals space, with inflows totaling US$85mn over the past five weeks. Investors are becoming more optimistic about the outlook for the Chinese economy following its latest cut in interest rates in order to support activity. ETFS Copper (COPA) has been the main beneficiary, receiving around a third of total inflows over the past month, totaling US$28mn. Chinese imports of unwrought copper jumped by over 45% in March from February, in an indication of the tightening underlying market. While down around 2% on a year ago, Q2 is strong from a seasonal perspective and imports could continue to strengthen.

Silver price drops back to attractive level, prompting inflows as gold sees more outflows. ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) experienced the second consecutive weekly inflows, totaling US$13mn over the period. The inflows are the largest biweekly inflows in two months and come as silver dipped to the lowest level in three weeks. With the link between silver and gold remaining strong, any further increase in volatility should support prices. While we believe that a US$15-16/oz price level is a buying opportunity, the market remains plagued by years of oversupply. Nonetheless, investors appear to be seeing silver from a strong relative value perspective and if inflation expectations in the Eurozone continue to move lower this week, both gold and silver could be key beneficiaries.

Long WTI ETPs see largest outflows since 2010, ahead of US weekly inventory data. A strong rally in crude followed the announcement of price hikes from Saudi Arabia to its Asian clients in addition to a lack of clarity over the potential ramp up in production from Iran following a potential nuclear deal being agreed. Investors took the opportunity to take profit, with crude ETPs withdrawals totaling US$73mn last week. In contrast, net long positions in WTI futures reached the highest level since August 2014. With US crude production continuing to defy depressed prices – the EIA’s weekly report showed the build in inventories last week was nearly three times larger than expected, at nearly 11mn barrels – near term downside risk remains elevated.

Key events to watch this week. Commodity investors will be closely watching the GDP release from China to determine whether the slowdown is more pronounced than expected. We feel that stimulus can support activity so growth remains resilient around the 7% level in 2015. Retail sales will be the next signpost to gauge whether the US economy is strong enough to support the beginning of policy tightening this year. Ahead of the ECB meeting, Eurozone inflation readings will also be critical for defensive commodities like gold and silver.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.