ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Geopolitical risks drove ETP flows last week
- Oil ETP see US$39.5mn outflows as investor take profit on 3.2% rise in oil price.
- Gold continues to attract inflows in an environment of heightened political risk.
- ETF investors short Italy in anticipation of a fallout this week.
Gold continues to attract inflows in an environment of heightened political risk. The political calendar is busy. A meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un is on the radar for the coming month and there are many risks around the nuclear powers butting heads rather than developing a peace plan. The US’s intervention in Iran is a sign that it is re-establishing its diplomatic presence in the Middle East. Whether that will help or hinder stability in the region is yet unknown. If Iran decides to pull out of the agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) itself, we believe the region could transcend into chaos and the proxy-war between Saudi Arabia and Iran will escalate. Long gold ETPs received US$16.7mn in inflows, while closely correlated silver ETPs received US$3.1mn.
Short FTSE MIB equities attracted its largest inflows since June 2017 as investors fear the coalition of anti-establishment parties in Italy. Short FTSE MIB ETPs gained US$3.6mn while long FTSE MIB saw US$4.5mn of outflows. There had been surprisingly little reaction from bond and equity markets surrounding the deadline set for yesterday around the forming of a coalition. We believe ETP investors have positioned for a fallout this week.
Investors appear split over aluminium’s direction. Long aluminium ETPs received US$1.9mn – largest weekly inflows since February 2018 – while short aluminium ETPs received US$1.1mn – largest weekly inflows since May 2016. Although prices have come off their highs reached last month when the US sanctions against a major shareholder of a Russian miner were announced, prices are likely to rise as these sanctions (and trade restrictions against China) come into effect.
Investors become more bullish the euro vis-à-vis the US dollar. Last week, investors bought US$9.7mn of long EUR short USD ETPs, and sold $8.3mn of long USD short EUR ETPs. Investors appear unconvinced that US dollar’s recent moderate appreciation can be sustained. Although with economic data continuing to weaken in Europe and little indication that the Federal Reserve will be deterred from raising rates another couple of times this year, we think that there is potential for rate differentials to drive the US dollar higher.
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ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
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