Etikett: EIA

Greek Cooperation Supports Bullish Sentiment

Greek Cooperation Supports Bullish SentimentGreek Cooperation Supports Bullish Sentiment

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Greek Cooperation Supports Bullish Sentiment

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Crude prices oscillate on conflicting signals.

European stocks rise following Greek repayment.  

Australian central bank surprises markets.

China will take center stage this week as the country releases Q1 growth figures and lending data. Any signs of weakness will likely stoke speculation that Chinese authorities will conduct further stimulus measures in order to meet the recently set 7% economic growth target. In Europe and the US, inflation data will give an indication as to the continued deflationary impact of energy prices. In particular, US consumer inflation will be monitored for any signs of recovery from last month’s 0% reading, as it is considered a key component in the Federal Reserve’s decision to initiate monetary tightening.

Commodities

Crude prices oscillate on conflicting signals. The price of US crude ended the week up 3.4% after a week of large moves. Oil prices rose approximately 9.6% at the start of the week boosted by news that Saudi Arabia was increasing the price of oil shipments sold to Asian consumers, underlining the growing belief that global oil demand is recovering. This was further corroborated by the release of the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) monthly energy outlook, which predicted that global oil consumption will grow by an estimated one million barrels this year. However, after a report showing that US crude inventories experienced the largest injection in 14 years, gains were trimmed with the WTI price plunging 6.6% in a single day. Industrial metals benefitted from Chinese authorities lowering guidance rates for funding agreements. The accommodative move was seen as an attempt to buoy economic activity, resulting in lead finishing the week up 4.3%.

Equities

European stocks rise following Greek repayment. Greece repaid a €450 million bailout loan instalment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Thursday causing European equity markets to rally. The FTSE MIB and DAX 30 rose 2.7% and 1.7% respectively during the week. The repayment soothed investor fears that Greece would delay matters, as tensions between finance ministers escalate over the terms of a debt arrangement. The newly elected far left Syriza party has been reluctant to accept any deal that incorporates any form of austerity, as doing so threatens to compromise the party’s credibly amongst the Greek electorate. The FTSE 100 rose 2.7% during the week as the price of Brent crude rose 2.9%, boosting oil and gas stocks that compromise 14.3% of the index.

Currencies

Australian central bank surprises markets. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shocked markets this week by holding the country’s benchmark interest rate at 2.25%. Most economists had forecasted that the RBA would cut rates in order to bolster recent subpar economic growth and sluggish business capital expenditure. The unexpected move caused the Aussie Dollar to strengthen, rising 3.7% and 2.5% against the Euro and Sterling respectively. The New Zealand Dollar also appreciated this week following the strongest reading in the Australian Construction Index in five months. The data release came following a statement from the New Zealand Prime Minister John Key which stressed the importance of the Australian economy to New Zealand, making the positive impact from the data more pronounced. The NZD finished the week 2.6% up against the Euro.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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Bargain Hunting Drives Demand for Energy ETPs

Bargain Hunting Drives Demand for Energy ETPs

Commodity ETP Weekly  Bargain Hunting Drives Demand for Energy ETPs

Long WTI ETPs see highest fortnightly inflows since 2012.

ETFS Leveraged Natural Gas attracted a further US$10.7mn.

A 3.4% spike in silver prices prompted US$11.4mn of profit taking from ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL).

ETFS Agriculture (AIGA) sees outflows on profit-taking.

 

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Oil and natural gas continue to see the highest inflows in the commodity complex as investors view current prices as increasingly attractive. WTI and Brent oil respectively fell a further 10.3% and 8.6% this week as both the IEA and OPEC cut demand forecasts for 2015 to the lowest level since 2002. However, underlying the cut to OPEC demand was an increase in non-OPEC oil supply, conceding some loss in market share. Many ETP investors believe that such low prices are unsustainable and this cut in demand forecasts is likely to be followed by a tightening in OPEC supply in 2015.

Long WTI ETPs see highest fortnightly inflows since 2012. Long WTI ETPs saw a further US$33.2mn of inflows last week on top of the US$45.7mn the week before. That contrasts the continued outflows from long Brent ETPs which saw a further US$0.5mn of outflows last week. WTI has fallen below US$60/bbl and Brent is trailing not far behind. At these prices, close to 20% of crude oil and condensates production from the United States are unprofitable according to the EIA. If prices remain persistently low, production will likely be reduced by higher cost producers. Although price weakness is likely to continue through the first half of 2015, continued economic growth in the US and China, combined with a reduction in oil supply, will eventually bring the oil market back to balance, with prices returning to trade around the US$90/bbl level towards the end of 2015. We believe the reduced demand forecasts from OPEC are a precursor to supply cuts.

ETFS Leveraged Natural Gas attracted a further US$10.7mn on top of the US$27.8mn the week before. With a larger-than-expected storage withdrawal confirmed on Wednesday, natural gas prices staged a small recovery mid-week, but closed down on the week as a whole. Despite the relatively warm US winter expected by NOAA, ETP investors believe that current prices remain very low for the peak heating season and given the unpredictability of weather, the risks remain to the upside for demand and price.

A 3.4% spike in silver prices prompted US$11.4mn of profit taking from ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL). Marking the highest outflows from the leveraged silver product since 2011, investors took the opportunity to lock in profits before the year’s end. Over 50% of silver demand comes from industrial applications, with China and the US accounting for over 40% of global fabrication demand. Continued growth in these large economies in 2015 should see demand for silver increase, helping support prices.

ETFS Agriculture (AIGA) sees outflows on profit-taking. Despite the marginally bearish WASDE report out on Wednesday, wheat, corn and soy prices increased as rumours of Russian exports restrictions rattled the market. While not confirmed, prices were up strongly on Thursday only to ease on Friday as decent snow coverage in the US will help the 2015 wheat crop after a record 2014. ETP investors took profit to square their positions before the end of year.

Key events to watch this week. The Federal Open Market Committee’s last meeting for 2014 will be closely watched for cues on policy tightening to come in 2015. US CPI inflation data out on the same day as the central bank’s meeting, should attract attention as investors gauge the capacity for the Fed to maintain loose policy for longer. Gold prices are closely linked to the US interest rate path and indications of tighter policy could hurt precious metals. Consensus expectations are for HSBC’s Chinese PMIs to fall below the 50 mark, indicating a contraction in industrial activity from last month. Should they remain above 50, we could see renewed optimism in the Chinese growth outlook and their subsequent demand for commodities.

 

 

Video Presentation

 

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

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