Etikett: Energy

Real Assets Fueled by Energy

Real Assets Fueled by Energy

The VanEck Vectors Real Asset Allocation ETF (RAAX) uses a data-driven, rules-based process that leverages over 50 indicators (technical, macroeconomic and fundamental, commodity price, and sentiment) to allocate across 12 individual real asset segments in five broad real asset sectors. These objective indicators identify the segments with positive expected returns. Then, using correlation and volatility, an optimization process determines the weight to these segments with the goal of creating a portfolio with maximum diversification while reducing risk. The expanded PDF version of this commentary can be downloaded here.

April Performance Summary

The VanEck Vectors Real Asset Allocation ETF (RAAX) launched, on April 9, into a period of strong performance for real assets. RAAX performed well on both an absolute and relative basis. Through April, in the first 16 days of its life, RAAX returned +2.98% based on net asset value versus +2.41% for its benchmark, the Blended Real Asset Index, which is comprised of an equally weighted blend of the returns of Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P Real Assets Equity Index, and VanEck Natural Resources Index*. Equal weightings are reset monthly.

Total Returns (%) as of April 30, 2018
1 Mo† YTD† 1 Year Life
(04/09/18)
RAAX (NAV) – – – 2.98
RAAX (Share Price) – – – 3.26
Blended Real Asset Index* – – – 2.41
Total Returns (%) as of March 31, 2018
1 Mo† YTD† 1 Year Life
(04/09/18)
RAAX (NAV) – – – –
RAAX (Share Price) – – – –
Blended Real Asset Index* – – – –

The table presents past performance which is no guarantee of future results and which may be lower or higher than current performance. Returns reflect temporary contractual fee waivers and/or expense reimbursements. Had the ETF incurred all expenses and fees, investment returns would have been reduced. Investment returns and ETF share values will fluctuate so that investors’ shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. ETF returns assume that distributions have been reinvested in the Fund at NAV.

†Returns less than a year are not annualized.

Expenses: Gross 0.81%; Net 0.74%. Expenses are capped contractually at 0.55% through February 1, 2020. Expenses are based on estimated amounts for the current fiscal year. Cap exclude certain expenses, such as interest, acquired fund fees and expenses, and trading expenses.

RAAX’s positioning was moderately defensive in April, and it was fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and Master Limited Partnerships (”MLPs”). The largest real asset investments were in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%).

May Positioning: Fully Invested and Mostly Bullish

RAAX remains fully invested across commodities, natural resource equities, and MLPs. As they were at launch, the largest weightings remain in diversified commodities (30%), gold bullion (20%), and agribusiness equities (20%). However, its allocation to gold equities now stands at 10%, increasing overall gold exposure to 30%.

We are bullish on most real assets. Based on the model’s analysis, diversified commodities, gold, agribusiness equities, MLPs, steel equities, oil services equities, and unconventional oil and gas equities are all well positioned to perform. We are bearish on Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), infrastructure, base metal equities, and coal equities.

Asset Class Weights

Source: VanEck. Data as of May 2, 2018.

This month we increased our exposure to gold equities and removed our exposure to coal equities. Another notable point is that we are bearish on two interest rate sensitive sectors, REITs and infrastructure, as interest rates continue to rise.

Remember, RAAX only invests in asset classes that the model is bullish on, and the weightings themselves are not an indication of conviction but a byproduct of a quantitative process that seeks to maximize diversification and minimize volatility. Let’s take a look at some of the reasons why RAAX maintains a bullish or bearish position on certain asset classes.

Gold

The model remains bullish, and overall exposure increased based on the portfolio diversification benefits that gold provides. Gold prices have been flat this year, but the precious metal has provided stability during periods of broad market stress.

Cumulative Growth of $10,000 of Gold and S&P 500 Index in 2018

Source: FactSet; Bloomberg. Data as of May 2, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Oil Services Equities

Research conducted here at VanEck has identified that oil price and the S&P 500 Index can be used to explain most of the performance of oil services stocks historically. Using these variables to generate an expected return for oil services stocks, we can look at the difference between this and the actual return of oil services stocks. Right now, based on these variables, oil services stocks are trading at a substantial discount, and the chart below shows that oil services stocks haven’t been this cheap since 2001.

Performance Variance of Oil Servicers and Key Independent Variables

Source: VanEck; FactSet; Bloomberg. Data as of April 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Oil servicers measured by the MVIS U.S. Listed Oil Services 25 Index. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

The model remains bullish on oil services stocks. Key bullish indicators include strong oil prices, reasonable volatility in oil services equities, and strong demand for natural gas. The chart below shows that oil prices are up 14.83% this year through April.

Cumulative Growth of $10,000 of Crude Oil in 2018

Source: FactSet. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Oil measured by West Texas Intermediary (WTI) oil price. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Coal Equities

At launch, RAAX had a small weighting to coal, but in May, this exposure was completely eliminated based on falling coal equity prices and weakening supply and demand data. Below is our economic composite for coal. It turned bearish at the end of April due to declining demand for coal in the U.S. and China, and declining production in the U.S.

Coal Economic Indicator Composite

Source: VanEck. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Coal equities measured by MVIS Global Coal Index. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

A Closer Look at the What, When, and How

Step One: What to Own

The aphorism ”a rising tide lifts all boats” is appropriate here. April was a great month to invest in real assets. Each real asset in our investment universe and the approximated holding period return of the underlying index is listed below. The assets that we were bearish on are shaded.

Holding Period Return
April 10 – April 30, 2018

Gold Equities 1.42% Oil Services Equities 13.97%
Agribusiness Equities 1.22% Unconventional Oil & Gas Equities 12.36%
Coal Equities -1.78% Global Metals & Mining Equities 4.65%
Gold Bullion -1.56% Diversified Commodities 3.60%
MLPs 6.08% REITs 1.53%
Global Infrastructure 1.53% Steel Equities 7.42%

Source: Bloomberg; FactSet. Data as of April 30, 2018. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.

Step Two: When to be Invested

We were fully invested in April. This was the right call as real asset investments rallied. RAAX begins to raise a cash position when five or more assets become bearish. This is typically indicative of a systemic market event. RAAX has not raised cash since it launched.

Step Three: How to Allocate

Capital is allocated amongst assets on which the model is bullish on using an optimization process designed to maximize our diversification and minimize our volatility. In April, this resulted in a 50% exposure to commodities, a 45% exposure to natural resource equities, and a 5% exposure to MLPs. RAAX’s allocation in May has not changed drastically.

Monthly Asset Class Changes

Asset Class May-18 Apr-18 Change
Gold Equities 10% 5% 5%
Diversified Commodities 30% 30% 0%
Agribusiness Equities 20% 20% 0%
Gold Bullion 20% 20% 0%
Limited Partnerships 5% 5% 0%
Service Equities 5% 5% 0%
Cash 0% 0% 0%
Unconventional Oil & Gas Equities 5% 5% 0%
Steel Equities 5% 5% 0%
Estate Investment 0% 0% 0%
Global Infrastructure 0% 0% 0%
Metals and Mining Equities 0% 0% 0%
Coal Equities 0% 5% -5%

Source: VanEck. Data as of May 2, 2018.

Additional Resources

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE

Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.

This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.

The Blended Real Assets Index consists of an equally weighted blend of the returns of Bloomberg Commodity Index, S&P Real Assets Equity Index, and VanEck® Natural Resources Index. Equal weightings are reset monthly. The S&P Real Assets Equity Index measures the performance of equity real return strategies that invest in listed global property, infrastructure, natural resources, and timber and forestry companies. The VanEck Natural Resources Index is a rules-based index intended to give investors a means of tracking the overall performance of a global universe of listed companies engaged in the production and distribution of commodities and commodity-related products and services. Sector weights are set annually based on estimates of global natural resources consumption, and stock weights within sectors are based on market capitalization, float-adjusted and modified to conform to various asset diversification requirements. U.S. Equities: The S&P 500® Index is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. The index is a float-adjusted, market-cap-weighted index of 500 leading U.S. companies from across all market sectors. Agribusiness Equities: The MVIS Global Agribusiness Index is a modified market cap-weighted index tracks the performance of the largest and most liquid companies in the global agribusiness segment. Its unique pure-play approach requires that companies have to generate at least 50% of their revenues from agri-chemicals and fertilizers, seeds and traits, from farm/irrigation equipment and farm machinery, from agricultural products (incl. Grain, tobacco, meat, poultry and sugar), aquaculture and fishing, livestock, plantations and trading of agricultural products. Coal Equities: The MVIS Global Coal Index is a modified market cap-weighted index tracks the performance of the largest and most liquid companies in the global coal segment. Its unique pure-play approach requires that companies have to generate at least 50% of their revenues from coal operation (production, mining and cokeries), transportation of coal, from production of coal mining equipment as well as from storage and trade. Gold Equities: The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization-weighted index composed of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold. The Index is calculated and maintained by the New York Stock Exchange. MLPs: The Solactive MLP & Energy Infrastructure Index tracks the performance of MLPs and energy infrastructure corporations. Oil Service Equities: The MVIS U.S. Listed Oil Services 25 Index is intended to track the overall performance of U.S.-listed companies involved in oil services to the upstream oil sector, which include oil equipment, oil services, or oil drilling. Unconventional Oil & Gas Equities: The MVIS Global Unconventional Oil & Gas Index is intended to track the performance of the largest and most liquid companies in the unconventional oil and gas segment. The pure-play index contains only companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from unconventional oil and gas which is defined as coal bed methane (CBM), coal seam gas (CSG), shale oil, shale gas, tight natural gas, tight oil and tight sands. Global Metals & Mining Equities: The MSCI ACWI Metals and Mining Index is composed of large and mid cap stocks across 23 Developed Markets countries and 24 Emerging Markets countries. All securities in the index are classified in the Metals & Mining industry (within the Materials sector) according to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®). Commodities: The DBIQ Optimum Yield Diversified Commodity Index Excess Return is an index composed of futures contracts on 14 heavily traded commodities across the energy, precious metals, industrial metals and agriculture sectors. Steel Equities: The NYSE Arca Steel Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the production of steel products or mining and processing of iron ore. REITs: The MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Transition Index is designed to capture the large, mid and small cap segments of the U.S. equity universe. The Index will transition completely from the starting MSCI US REIT Index into the MSCI US IMI Real Estate 25/50 Index over a specified period. Infrastructure: The S&P Global Infrastructure Index is designed to track 75 companies from around the world chosen to represent the listed infrastructure industry while maintaining liquidity and tradability. To create diversified exposure, the index includes three distinct infrastructure clusters: energy, transportation, and utilities.

An investment in the Fund may be subject to risks which include, among others, fund of funds risk which may subject the Fund to investing in commodities, gold, natural resources companies, MLPs, real estate sector, infrastructure, equities securities, small- and medium-capitalization companies, foreign securities, emerging market issuers, foreign currency, credit, high yield securities, interest rate, call and concentration risks, all of which may adversely affect the Fund. The Fund may also be subject to affiliated fund, U.S. Treasury Bills, subsidiary investment, commodity regulatory, tax, liquidity, gap, cash transactions, high portfolio turnover, model and data, management, operational, authorized participant concentration, absence of prior active market, trading issues, market, fund shares trading, premium/discount and liquidity of fund shares, and non-diversified risks. The Fund’s assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors.

Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against a loss.

The ”Net Asset Value” (NAV) of a VanEck Vectors Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is determined at the close of each business day, and represents the dollar value of one share of the fund; it is calculated by taking the total assets of the fund, subtracting total liabilities, and dividing by the total number of shares outstanding. The NAV is not necessarily the same as the ETF’s intraday trading value. VanEck Vectors ETF investors should not expect to buy or sell shares at NAV.

Fund shares are not individually redeemable and will be issued and redeemed at their NAV only through certain authorized broker-dealers in large, specified blocks of shares called ”creation units” and otherwise can be bought and sold only through exchange trading. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market. You will incur brokerage expenses when trading Fund shares in the secondary market.

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of the Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333 or visit vaneck.com. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.

Stimulus helps global economic outlook

Stimulus helps global economic outlook

Commodity ETP Weekly – Stimulus helps global economic outlook

•  Diversified commodity exposures see month long inflows.
•  Agricultural ETP inflows reach 7-week high.
•  Seventh consecutive weekly inflow into energy ETPs, led by crude.
•  Gold inflows top sector as central banks remain in stimulus mode.
•  Upcoming webinar: Commodities – Is the Outlook Changing? Register here to attend

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Central banks from Europe to China are keeping the stimulus taps flowing alongside modest but encouraging signs of global recovery. While Chinese growth dipped under 7% for the first time since 2009, Chinese authorities remain ready to provide support and have the balance sheet to match. Alongside indications of resilient global activity commodity demand is likely to be supported as we head into year-end. In turn, sentiment towards commodities appears to be turning with investors increasing exposure to long diversified commodity ETPs. While the stronger US Dollar is likely to cap commodity gains in the near-term, particularly for precious metals, foreign investors are benefiting from weaker local currencies.

Diversified commodity exposures see month long inflows. ETPs with a diversified exposure to the commodities market as a whole have experienced a month-long run of inflows, totalling US$52mn over the period. The trend signifies that investor sentiment appears to be turning for commodities, the worst performing sector over the past four years. Investors are also increasing exposure to basket ETPs in each sector, with ETFS Agriculture (AIGA), ETFS Industrial metals (AIGI) and ETFS Energy (AIGE) all receiving inflows last week.

Agricultural ETP inflows reach 7-week high. ETFS Agriculture (AIGA) received the highest inflows in 10 weeks. AGRI inflows totalling US$5.7mn topped the agricultural sector, closely followed by the US$5.1mn inflows into coffee ETPs. Coffee inflows reached a 16-week high, as a plunge in coffee prices has attracted bargainhunters to the commodity. Overdue rainfall in Brazil sent prices over 10% lower last week, as expectations for a better crop rose.

Seventh consecutive weekly inflow into energy ETPs, led by crude. The energy sector has experienced one week of outflows over the past four months, with inflows totalling over US$550mn since late July. Oil prices declined last week, after the Energy Information Administration reported a large jump in inventory levels, more than double market expectations. Both WTI and Brent crude have dropped by over 10% since the recent early October peak. While this was the fourth consecutive weekly stock build, rig counts have been falling for the past eight weeks, giving investors’ confidence that the oil price is forming a bottom. Moreover, demand, particularly from China is seemingly robust, offsetting some concern of a sharp slowdown in the world’s second largest economy.

Gold inflows top sector as central banks remain in stimulus mode. The gold price has remained relatively resilient last week, retaining its gains over the past month as lingering concern stemming from recently softer global economic data is coupled with an increasing desire by central banks to be proactive in terms of monetary support. The European central bank appears keen to do more to offset what it sees as ‘downside risks’ to the economy, and additional stimulus raises the potential for further currency debasement, a supportive influence for monetary metals, particularly gold.

Key events to watch this week. After China and the ECB set the stage for greater central bank accommodation, such trends are likely to be positive for metals demand, particularly precious metals. Nevertheless, precious metals gains are likely to be capped, with the US Dollar strengthening after the ECB meeting last week. This week’s FOMC meeting will give clarity on future policy direction, and while we expect the FOMC to hike rates this year, it is unlikely to be this week.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

Commodity ETP Weekly – US dollar strength adds to commodity woes

•  Short-lived gold rally boosted demand for gold ETPs.

•  Increasing interest in Energy ETPs.

•  Inflows into short copper persist.

•  Platinum sell-off deepens.

•  ETF Securities will be hosting a Q4 update on the 8 October to look at trends for commodities, equities and currencies – register here to attend

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Last week commodities diverged, largely trading on their individual fundamentals. Palladium was the best performer, gaining 8% as investors fear a consumer backlash against diesel autocatalysts following the scandal at Volkswagen (which could favour palladium-heavy gasoline autocatalysts). Industrial metals were hurt again last week as the Caixin China PMI manufacturing data came out weaker than expected, although this week’s official PMI reading will offer more clarity on the strength of manufacturing demand. Late last week, the Federal Reserve Chair reiterated that a rate rise is still on the cards for 2015, which could pose a threat for commodity prices as the US dollar strengthens.

Short-lived gold rally boosted demand for gold ETPs. US$16.6mn of net inflows was invested into gold ETPs last week as gold gained 3.3%, closing at US$1,154.50/oz on Thursday. However, Federal Reserve chairman Janet Yellen cut the rally short when she confirmed late Thursday that interest rates could still rise by the end of the year. US dollar strengthened on this announcement and gold price pared its gains to US$1,146.20/oz. by the end of the week. The price of gold is likely to remain very volatile in the run-up to the next Fed meeting scheduled at the end of October.

Increasing interest in Energy ETPs. Energy ETPs recorded net inflows of US$7mn, mostly into ETFS Energy (AIGE) and natural gas ETPs. At this time of the year, the natural gas futures curve typically switches from backwardation into contango as the restocking season between April and October comes to a close and US demand for heating increases, supporting demand for gas ahead of the winter season. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts natural gas price at an average of US$2.84/MMBtu for 2015. Year-to-date average price currently stands at US$2.77/MMBtu, suggesting that investors are likely to benefit from a long position into the commodity. Meanwhile, oil ETPs recorded net outflows last week, mainly from WTI ETPs, on the back of profit taking. A 17.4% rebound in WTI oil since its August low, has driven three consecutive weeks of outflows from WTI ETPs.

Inflows into short copper persist. Last week saw net inflows of US$4.5mn into ETFS Short Copper (SCOP) marking the second consecutive week of inflows into the product as ETP investors as investors have become bearish on the metal following weaker-than-expected flash manufacturing PMI data in China. Net positions into copper contracts listed on the LME and COMEX however indicate a reversal of market sentiment. China official manufacturing PMI scheduled for later this week will provide further clarification.

Platinum sell-off deepens. Platinum ETPs recoded net outflows of US$9.3mn as platinum price reached its lowest level in 6 years. Palladium ETPs saw US$1mn of inflows, following its 8.0% rally. Lower platinum prices could hurt platinum miners’ economic sustainability further. With the global average cash costs of production at US$1,209/oz. (GFMS), maintaining current levels of production is difficult and we could see the supply deficit deepen this year.

Key events to watch this week. US non-farm payrolls data will be closely scrutinized as the Fed’s next move is ever more dependent on signs of labour market strength. Official Chinese PMI’s will help confirm whether the weakness in the Caixin numbers were an aberration or a trend.

Video Presentation

Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Only gold profits from Fed decision

Only gold profits from Fed decision

Only gold profits from Fed decision Energy: Events on the oil market continue to be characterized by high levels of volatility, oil prices once again repeatedly fluctuating by $1-1.5 during the course of trading yesterday. It is virtually impossible to identify any clear trend at the moment, though in our opinion the bullish factors are likely to predominate in the medium term. In recent days, we have made frequent reference to an imminent tightening of non-OPEC supply, which should help restore the balance on the oil market as early as next year. The outlook on the demand side has also brightened considerably of late, however. The already strong demand from China should even derive further positive impetus from the stimulus measures implemented by the government and central bank. We also believe that the latest fall in car registrations in China, which gave rise to negative sentiment recently, was due above all to psychological factors and will soon be reversed. China reported today that real estate prices in major cities in August rose again for the most part (sharply in some cases). In addition, the Chinese stock markets appear to be stabilizing. The impact of the interest rate decision taken by the US Fed on sentiment among oil investors should not be underestimated either, nor should the way international financial markets and foreign exchange markets have reacted to it. The fact that the US Fed has expressed explicit concern about a strong US dollar should limit the greenback’s upside potential. A weaker US dollar is frequently accompanied by a rising oil price.

Precious metals: The gold price climbed to a two-week high of a good $1,130 per troy ounce yesterday evening on the back of a depreciating US dollar. As we had anticipated, the US Federal Reserve chose not to raise interest rates yet yesterday. The latest turmoil in the emerging markets, the increased volatility on the financial markets and the low rate of inflation in the US were doubtless what prompted the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged.

Furthermore, Fed Chair Yellen emphasized the negative impact of the strong US dollar on inflation, and also gave no clear indication that a rate hike might be imminent. Nonetheless, she did make reference to the fact that a majority of FOMC members expect interest rate hikes to begin before the year is out. Our economists believe that these are more likely to start in December than in October because a whole series of additional economic data – labour market reports in particular – will then be available to enable a better appraisal of the situation. Until such time as a first rate hike is made, we expect the gold price to continue trending sideways within a relatively narrow trading band, as it has done in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, physical gold demand in India is clearly weak: according to trading sources, the discount on gold prices there as compared with world market prices in London already amounted to as much as $10 per troy ounce this week, which is surprising given that the festival season is just around the corner.

Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues

Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Greece The Dangerous Game of Brinkmanship Continues

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Highlights

Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains.
China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI.
Commodity currencies diverge.

Talks between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend adding a further blow to the country’s precarious financial situation after the IMF pulled out discussions last week. Euro-zone finance ministers will meet again on Thursday to try to break the impasse, but the willingness from either side to see a resolution appears to be wearing thin. Elsewhere, the Federal Open Market Committee will host a press conference and present its summary of economic projections after its rate decision, where no change is expected.

Commodities

Energy rallies while agriculture pares recent gains. Natural gas gained 7.6% last week, reversing the previous two week’s losses. Higher power demand driven by air-conditioning needs tend to drive up natural gas demand in the summer period. Above average temperature forecasts for the south east of the US were the catalyst for the recent gains. There were no surprises in the weekly natural gas in storage data with a net change of 111 Bcf, close to 113 Bcf expected. Both Brent and WTI continued to defy the lack of material supply tightening news, with both benchmarks gaining close to 5%. Crude oil prices appear to be reacting to higher demand forecasts, but we believe that the higher prices themselves are likely to choke off demand. Sugar declined a further 3.5% last week, to a 6 year low, driven mainly by a depreciating Brazilian Real exchange rate. The global glut in sugar continues to weigh on sentiment. The USDA surprisingly increased wheat supply forecasts for this year. Wheat had previously been rallying following excess rain in in the key growing areas in the US.

Equities

China A-shares rally on positive indications from MSCI. MSCI declared it is a matter of “when” and not “if” they will include domestically traded A-Shares to its Emerging Market benchmark. MSCI announced that is working with the China Securities Regulatory Commission on overcoming the final roadblocks to inclusion. Furthermore they said they will not necessarily wait to their annual index review to announce inclusion. If reform maintains its current pace, we are likely to see MSCI’s concerns on capital mobility, quota allocation and beneficial ownership quickly resolved. That would pave the way for domestically traded shares to enter the emerging market index that currently has approximately US$1.5tn benchmarked against it. European bourses meanwhile traded lower as concerns about Greece’s precarious finances linger.

Currencies

Commodity currencies diverge. Citing weak commodity prices, falling import prices and subdued wage inflation, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the official cash rate last week driving the NZD lower. It also expressed concern that the currency is still overvalued despite depreciating since April, and that further rate cuts are possible. The Reserve Bank of Australia also remains dovish. Meanwhile the recent bounce in oil price has supported NOK and CAD, driving the commodity currencies apart. The lack of progress in Greece’s negotiations with its creditors continued to weigh on the Euro. With the IMF pulling out of discussions, the risk of a dramatic end to the standoff between the Greek government and its creditors has now increased. As long as the Fed continues to indicate it is on track to raise rates in September, we are likely to see the US dollar remain a key haven for investors.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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