Finally, the market has it right for the Bank of England…but not for GBP…
Market expectations for the Bank of England (BOE) indicate that it is almost a forgone conclusion that a rate hike will be announced by the BOE this week. This wasn’t always the case. Until September, expectations for a rate hike this year had bounced between around 10% to 60%, and mostly toward the bottom end of that range. So why does the market have pricing wrong for GBP? Finally, the market has it right for the Bank of England…but not for GBP…
The turmoil surrounding Brexit negotiations and the uncertainty over the future economic arrangements have been a key reasons why investors have believed it unlikely that the BOE would raise interest rates. Indeed, the rebound in GBP stalled as European Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier and his UK counterpart David Davis traded uneasy statements back-and-forth about the status of the discussions. However, ongoing inflation pressure, a more hawkish tone from BOE Governor Carney and resilient economic numbers have been the reasons for our long held view that the BOE would hike rates in 2017. The knee jerk rate cut triggered by the EU referendum result in June 2016 has proven to have been unnecessary and the current aggressively accommodative stance of the central bank is now counter to its objective of price stability.
Downside risk för EUR/GBP
While GBP appears well valued against the US Dollar, real interest rate differentials between the Eurozone and the UK are supportive of further gains in GBP against the Euro. Indeed, we expect further downside for the Euro, which we feel remains overvalued, with the European Central Bank ECB) striking a much more cautious tone than the BOE. Although ECB President Draghi has announced a ‘downsize’ of its asset purchase program, he noted the need for ‘continued support from monetary policy’ as ‘domestic price pressures are still muted’. With no rate hikes on the horizon, investor positioning looks stretched, hovering near record highs, and EUR/GBP will move back into the 0.84-0.88 range it was trading in for the majority of 2017. Market consensus for EUR/GBP is for 0.90 by year-end. So while the market has it right for the BOE, it has it wrong for GBP.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
De populäraste valutorna och varför de är så populära
Forexmarknaden är världens största och mest likvida marknad, med triljoner dollar som handlas varje dag mellan miljontals parter. För de som precis börjat på forexmarknaden är ett av de första stegen att bekanta sig med några av de mer vanligt förekommande valutorna och deras populära användningsområden. Detta gäller inte bara för valutamarknaden utan också generellt. Låt oss ta en titt på flera populära valutor som alla forex observatörer ska känna till och några av de bakomliggande egenskaperna hos varje. Vi har tittat på de populäraste valutorna och varför de är så populära.
Den Amerikanska dollarn
Först och främst finns den amerikanska dollarn, som är den mest omsatta valutan på planeten. USD kan handlas i ett par med alla andra större valutor och fungerar ofta som mellanhand i triangelvalutatransaktioner. Detta beror på att USD fungerar som den oförutsedda globala reservvalutan, som innehas av nästan alla centralbanker och institutionella investeringsföretag i världen.
På grund av amerikanska dollarns globala acceptans, används den av vissa länder som en officiell valuta, i motsats till en lokal valuta, en ökning som kallas dollarization. Dessutom accepteras amerikanska dollarn allmänt i andra nationer, som fungerar som en informell alternativ betalningsform, medan de här nationerna behåller sin officiella lokala valuta.
Dollarn är också en viktig faktor på valutamarknaden för andra valutor. Den kan fungera som riktmärke eller målränta för länder som väljer att fixa eller pegga sina valutor till USD-värdet. Från och med 2011 har Kina sin valuta, renminbien, som fortfarande är knuten till dollarn, något som retar många ekonomer och centralbanker. Oftast väljer länderna att fixa sina växelkurser till USD för att stabilisera sin växelkurs snarare än att låta de fria (valutamarknaderna) fluktuera.
Euron
Även om denna valuta är relativt ny har euron snabbt blivit den näst mest omsatta valutan efter den amerikanska dollarn. Dessutom är euron världens näst största reservvaluta. Euron är officiella valutan för majoriteten av nationerna inom euroområdet. Euron introducerades på världsmarknaden den 1 januari 1999, med sedlar och mynt som trädde i omlopp tre år senare.
Utöver att vara den officiella valutan för de flesta euroländer, knyter många nationer inom Europa och Afrika sina valutor till euron. Detta av samma skäl som valutorna är knutna till dollarn – för att stabilisera växelkursen.
Euron som en allmänt använd och betrodd valuta som är den mycket utbredd i forexmarknaden, och lägger till likviditet i valfritt valutapar som det handlas i. Euron handlas gemensamt av spekulanter som ett spel på euroområdets och dess medlemsländers allmänna hälsa. Politiska händelser inom euroområdet kan ofta leda till stora handelsvolymer för euron. Detta gäller särskilt i förhållande till de länder som såg sina lokala räntor falla drastiskt vid införandet av euron, särskilt Italien, Grekland, Spanienoch Portugal. Euron kan vara den mest ”politiserade” valutan som handlas aktivt på valutamarknaden.
Den japanska yenen
Den japanska yenen är den mest omsatta valutan från Asien och ses av många som en proxy för den underliggande styrkan i Japans tillverkningsekonomi. När Japans ekonomi går bra, så går yenen (i vissa avseenden) bra. Många använder yenen för att mäta den övergripande hälsan i Stilla Havs-regionen, med beaktande av ekonomier som Sydkorea, Singaporeoch Thailand, eftersom dessa valutor handlas långt mindre på de globala valutamarknaden.
Yenen är också välkänd i forex cirklar för sin roll i carry trade. Med Japan som i princip har en nollräntepolitik under en stor del av 1990-talet och 2000-talet har handlarna lånat yenen nästan utan kostnad. De har sedan använt dessa för att investera i andra högre valutor runt om i världen, vilket berodde på skillnaderna i räntorna. Med carry trade som en så stor del av yenens närvaro på internationell nivå har den japanska valutans ständiga upplåning gjort uppvärdering till en svår uppgift. Även om yenen fortfarande handlar med samma grunder som någon annan valuta, är dess förhållande till internationella räntor, särskilt med de mer omsatta valutorna som dollarn och euron en stor determinant för yenens värde.
Det brittiska pundet
Det brittiska pundet, även känt som pund sterling, är den fjärde mest omsatta valutan på valutamarknaden. Det fungerar också som en stor reservvaluta på grund av dess relativa värde jämfört med andra globala valutor. Även om Storbritannienär en officiell medlem i Europeiska unionen valde landet att inte anta euron som sin officiella valuta av olika skäl. Till exempel historisk stolthet i pundet och upprätthållande av kontrollen över inhemska räntor. Av denna anledning kan pundet ses som ett rent spel på Storbritannien. Forexhandlare kommer ofta att basera sitt värde på den totala styrkan i den brittiska ekonomin och politisk stabilitet i sin regering. På grund av sitt höga värde gentemot andra valutor är pundet också ett viktigt valutaindex för många nationer och fungerar som en väldigt likvid komponent på valutamarknaden.
Den Schweiziska francen
Den schweiziska francen ses av många som en ”neutral” valuta. Mer korrekt betraktas den schweiziska francen som en tillflyktsort inom valutamarknaden, främst på grund av att schweizerfrancen tenderar att röra sig i en negativ korrelation med mer volatila råvaruvalutor som kanadensiska och australiensiska dollar tillsammans med amerikanska statsskuldväxlar. Den schweiziska nationalbanken har faktiskt varit känd för att vara ganska aktiv på valutamarknaden för att se till att francen handlas relativt snävt, att minska volatiliteten och hålla räntorna i linje.
Den kanadensiska Dollarn
Sist på vår lista tittar vi på den kanadensiska dollarn, även känd som loonie. Loonie är förmodligen världens främsta råvaruvaluta, vilket innebär att den rör sig i takt med råvarumarknaderna. Detta gäller särskilt råolja, ädelmetaller och mineraler. Med Kanada som sådan en stor exportör av sådana varor är loonien mycket flyktig mot rörelser i sina underliggande priser, särskilt råolja. Traders handlar ofta den kanadensiska dollarn för att spekulera på rörelserna för dessa varor eller som en hedge mot sina innehav i de underliggande kontrakten.
Dessutom ligger Kanadai närheten av världens största konsumentbas, USA. Detta gör att den kanadensiska ekonomin och den kanadensiska dollarn är högt korrelerad med styrkan i amerikansk ekonomi och rörelser i amerikansk dollar.
Slutsats
Som vi har sett har varje valuta särskilda egenskaper som påverkar dess underliggande värde och prisrörelser i förhållande till andra valutor på valutamarknaden. Förstå vad som rör en valuta och varför är ett avgörande steg för att bli en framgångsrik aktör på valutamarknaden.
Draghi in no hurry to spook the market, just the Euro
Draghi in no hurry to spook the market, just the Euro. European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi wants to engineer a smooth transition away from ultra stimulative monetary policy…but not too soon, because inflationary forces remain depressed. The problem is the strength of the Euro, which further depresses inflation. The ECB wants a weaker Euro…
At the last ECB press conference, Draghi commented that there were ‘two…observations of this nature ([on] the link between the asset purchase programme and the inflation convergence), but there wasn’t any discussion…on normalisation’. This very measured language highlights the mindset of policymakers: cautious to ensure that inflation and wage gains are gaining a solid foothold. Inflation across the Eurozone was flat in June, contributing to a 1.3% annual growth over the past year. We must remember the mistake that the ECB made in raising rates in 2011, only to have to cut rates before year-end 2011.
In this way, the ECB remains conservative with their communication on the need for tapering, with President Draghi noting that ‘discussions should happen in the fall’ because ‘we are not there yet’ regarding inflation and price stability. President Draghi does not want a taper tantrum to push borrowing costs sharply higher. But a weaker Euro would be of assistance, both for lifting inflationary forces and for boosting economic demand.
The market has misjudged the reticence of the ECB
We feel that the market has misjudged the reticence of the ECB and that confidence in aggressive tapering in coming months misguided. In turn we feel the Euro bounce during the press conference will be transitory. Indeed, the long Euro trade is overcrowded, with futures market positioning at the highest level in over six years. In the face of weak inflation pressure, there are downside risks for the Euro. Meanwhile, option pricing shows that optimism, albeit trending higher, is much more subdued than within the futures market.
As a result, we continue to expect the near-term Euro strength to falter and to move lower until a more urgent need for tighter monetary policy for the Eurozone becomes a more strongly voiced position.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
Fading political uncertainty in Europe alongside the improving growth profile is bolstering the Euro. Meanwhile, the US Dollar has failed to benefit in any significant way, despite the market pricing in a rate hike in June by the Fed. We expect that there is a downside risk for the US Dollar if the Fed disappoint in June, especially in view of FX market positioning. Euro benefitting from the US Dollar downside risk
Macron’s victory over Le Pen set the scene for a risk-on rally for European assets and particularly the Euro. Alongside the German state election win for the CDU, the decline in political uncertainty has reduced the risk of the collapse of Europe. The Euro could also experience further upside in coming months as the improvement in the Eurozone economic landscape prompts the ECB to begin discussing tapering the size of its balance sheet later in the year. Nonetheless, there is potential for some volatility for the Euro because the Italian – German 10yr government bond yield spread suggests there is still an elevated risk of a referendum on the country’s euro membership and potential early elections. Such volatility could Speculative positioning for the Euro is at the highest level in over three years and has turned positive for the first time during that period. Sustainably breaking above 1.10, could see the Euro begin to target to 1.15 level, a level that is more in line with real rate differentials.
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In contrast, there is a downside risk for the US Dollar if the US Federal Reserve disappoints investors by keeping rates on hold in June, contrary to market expectations. Fed communications have been even handed in recent weeks and we feel that the 75% (down from 95%) chance of a rate hike that is priced in seems elevated. Political uncertainty surrounding President Trump is also exacerbating the downward pressure for the USD. Policy paralysis remains the key risk for the Trump administration and any further delays could be reason enough for the Federal Reserve to wait until September for the next rate rise.
Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities
Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.
ETF Securities – ECB rule bending to pressure the Euro
Highlights
Markets have repriced the Euro lower, as the chance for a populist Presidential win from Le Pen’s Front Nationale (FN) has increased in recent weeks.
The Euro, beset by political uncertainty, has been unable to benefit from the uptick in the underlying economic environment and an improvement in investor positioning in the futures market.
Although European Central Bank (ECB) quantitative easing (QE) program appears at its limit, the central bank appears ready to deviate from its ‘capital key’ and buy bonds from more heavily indebted nations, in turn putting further pressure on the Euro later in 2017.
Politics repricing the Euro
Analysts have repriced consensus forecasts lower for the EUR/USD during 2017, as political uncertainty threatens to break-up the Eurozone. At the end of 2016, consensus forecasts centred around 1.07 by end Q1 2017, compared to just 1.04 currently. We expect that the Euro should end Q1 around 1.08 as political uncertainty fades.
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The Euro has been battered by political uncertainty and has been unable to benefit from the improvement in the underlying economic environment. The Bloomberg Eurozone Economic Surprise Index suggests that the Euro could, in the absence of the ECB’s QE activities and the current uncertainty surrounding the political environment, be significantly higher against the USD.
Although populism and an increasingly insular voter attitude is a distinct similarity between the US and the Eurozone, the result for the currency could be a stark contrast. After vowing to bring back the French Franc, the potential for FN’s Le Pen to win the French election could prompt the Euro to move to parity against the US Dollar, a contrasting result compared to the US Dollar strength after the Trump Presidential victory. Nonetheless, EUR/USD parity on the back of a Le Pen victory is not our base case.
Economics drives policy differences
There are also other differences on an economic level between the US and Europe: unemployment across the Eurozone remains elevated, and excess spare capacity is likely to keep wage growth muted for some time. With excess labour market capacity, there is unlikely to be the pressure on core inflation that we expect to occur in the US later in 2017.
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However, inflation expectations have been rising on a global basis. The unwind of oil price effects has pushed headline prices higher, even beyond our bullish view and well beyond consensus expectations for the Eurozone. Eurozone inflation reached the highest level since March 2013, and now is in line with the ‘close to or below’ the 2.0% ECB target. Importantly inflation is unlikely to spike above the central bank’s target in coming months, and the ECB will ‘look through recent upturns in headline inflation’.
ECB nearing its limit
While the US Federal Reserve is taking a hawkish approach, the ECB is firmly in accommodative support mode with monetary policy.
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The ECB’s balance sheet has never been larger. However, the ECB is nearing the limit of its QE activities, with growth in its balance sheet fading. However, there are signs that the central bank could move outside the current scope of the asset purchase scheme to once again boost its balance sheet and the Eurozone money supply.
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Although the Euro should benefit if the ECB was able to cease its bond buying without any significant dislocations in interest rate markets by year-end, the potential for fresh policy pressure has weighed on the common currency.
The ECB’s latest Account of the monetary policy meeting noted the potential for the central bank to make ‘limited and temporary deviations’ from its capital key. This suggests the possibility of moving away from a broad GDP based bond buying scheme towards a debt weighted scheme. Such a move would advantage more heavily indebted nations such as Italy, but pressure the Euro in H2 2017.
What are markets pricing?
Futures market positioning has rebounded from extremely depressed levels, but investors remain net short of the Euro. However, the Euro is more depressed than what the historical relationship indicates. In contrast, options market pricing is highlighting the Euro is expected to be the second worst performer against the USD in the G10. Options pricing is the most pessimistic about the Euro’s valuation since June 2016.
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We expect the Euro to strengthen to around 1.08 in coming months as it becomes more apparent that Le Pen’s FN party is unlikely to win the French Presidency. Despite this volatility will remain, and further ECB asset purchases and ‘rule bending’ could see the Euro move back toward current levels in H2 2017.
Important Information
The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities’ products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.
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