Etikett: European equities

European equities aren’t the great value play they once were

European equities aren’t the great value play they once were ETF SecuritiesEuropean equities aren’t the great value play they once were

European equities aren’t the great value play they once were. We saw a 9% downgrade in Q1 earnings growth forecasts over the quarter, the largest since late 2014, echoing the downgrades we saw in the US. Regardless, results still missed expectations, with 69% falling short of earnings forecasts, after 70% of companies having reported. European equities aren’t the great value play they once were

Overall net income was flat but revenues were the weakest since Q1 2012, ending what has been a fairly good run for European earnings since then.

Its been core Europe where the weakness stems, primarily Germany, Netherlands and France whilst the periphery, such as Spain, Italy and Ireland have held out relatively well.

We suspect that some of the weakness has been due to the resilience of the EUR as much of the weakness has stemmed from more internationally focused sectors such as tech and consumer sectors. Whilst industrials missed expectations, quarter-on-quarter growth in this sector has been the strongest, followed by utilities.

Despite a mixed picture for the banking sector, we are seeing loan growth along with a fall in non-performing loans (NPLs). NPLs have fallen by 2.1% percentage points since this time last year, to 8% which is well below the 13% peak reached in 2014. But bear in mind, 8% is still well above its international counterparts which are all sub 3%.

We still expect the EUR strength to remain in coming quarters and is likely to continue to negatively impact the export market. This comes at a time when European earnings and valuations are now close to their long term trend. We are not saying that the poor earnings season indicates that the European economic recovery has been derailed. However, we no longer believe that Europe is a great value play.

James Butterfill, Head of Research & Investment Strategy at ETF Securities

James Butterfill joined ETF Securities as Head of Research & Investment Strategy in 2015. James is responsible for leading the strategic direction of the global research team, ensuring that clients receive up-to-date, expert insight into global macroeconomic and asset class specific developments.

James has a wealth of experience in strategy, economics and asset allocation gained at HSBC and most recently in his role as Multi- Asset Fund Manager and Global Equity Strategist at Coutts. James holds a Bachelor of Engineering from the University of Exeter and an MSc in Geophysics from Keele University.

Gold ETP Assets Soar By Over 20 per cent

Gold ETP Assets Soar By Over 20 per cent

Gold ETP Assets Soar By Over 20 per cent Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Europé

European Monthly ETF Market Review – Gold ETP Assets Soar By Over 20 per cent

10 March 2016 (73 pages/ 1970 kb)

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European ETP Highlights

Global ETPs assets stood at $2.7 trillion at the end of February’16, 4.6% down from last year end levels ($2.9 trillion). European ETP assets reached $487bn (€448bn) at the end of Feb’16. European ETPs had another good month in 2016 with net inflows of +€2.1bn (+€2.2bn in the prev. month). Interestingly, Commodity ETPs dominated with inflows of +€2.5bn followed by +€1.6bn inflows in Fixed Income ETFs. Equity ETFs witness redemptions of -€1.9bn during February. Global ETPs flows totaled +$9bn for February led by Asia-Pacific listed ETPs recording +$5.6bn in monthly inflows while US listed ETPs returned to positive territory with inflows of +$1bn.

Record flow of €2.2bn into European Gold ETPs

European Commodity ETPs market saw inflows for the second consecutive month with particularly strong inflows of +€2.5bn in February (+€0.7bn in Jan’16). This was almost entirely dominated by Gold ETPs. Flight to safety resulted in Gold ETPs receiving record inflows of +€2.2bn in Feb’16 (YTD +€2.7bn). A similar trend was also observed in US, where US Gold ETPs witnessed inflows of +$5.1bn.

More inflows into the Smart Beta segment

Europe listed smart beta ETFs registered inflows of +€0.8bn during February and assets reached at €9.6bn which is 8% higher than last year-end total assets (€8.9bn) while total European ETPs assets decreased by -4% YTD (€448bn in Feb’16 and €467bn in Dec’15). Within smart beta, we have seen investor’s preference for minimum volatility products over other products during volatile markets.

Net inflow into UK equity ETPs despite Brexit fears

ETFs tracking broad and blue chip European equities experienced outflows of -€1.3bn. Investors favored UK focused ETFs (+€0.4bn flows in Feb’16) despite fears of UK exit from the European Union intensified in Feb’16. US and Germany focused ETFs witnessed selling pressure in February and recorded outflows of -€0.8bn and -€0.6bn respectively.

Fixed Income ETFs registered inflows dominated by Investment Grade Bonds

European Fixed Income ETFs registered inflows of +€1.6bn during Feb’16 (+€1.5bn YTD flows). A clear preference was shown for Investment Grade Bonds which recorded inflows of +€1.6bn (+€1.5bn YTD) while High Yields Bonds was almost flat on a net basis (-€28mn in Feb and -€305mn in Jan).

Fixed Income Dominates ETF Flows

Fixed Income Dominates ETF Flows

European Monthly ETF Market Review – Fixed Income Dominates ETF Flows

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Europe

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Data in this report is as of 30th October 2015

European ETP Highlights

As of the end of October 2015, global ETP assets stood at $2.9 trillion with European ETP assets at $514bn (€465bn). European ETPs had another good month with net inflows of +€6.4bn in October (+€1.8bn in the prev. month). Fixed Income ETFs led the charge with notable inflows of +€3.5bn followed by Equity ETFs (+€2.5bn) over the last month. Commodity ETPs listed in Europe reversed previous month’s trend and recorded inflows of +€0.4bn during the same period.

Global EM, Broad European equities and Energy ETFs benefitted from inflows, Short and Leverage ETFs experienced net outflows

Investors trading European-listed ETPs were net buyers of broad emerging market focused ETFs. We observed net demand of +€0.9bn into emerging market equities during October.

European equity exposure ETFs continued the positive run in October and attracted investors from Europe and the US. Where European-listed ETFs were concerned, we observed monthly inflows of +€0.5bn (+€20.6bn YTD inflows) into European equities in Oct’15. US-listed ETFs providing exposure to European equities registered monthly inflows of +$2.3bn bringing YTD total to over +$32.4bn.

Investors remained bullish on the Energy sector and put +€0.1bn of new money into Energy-sector ETFs during October (+€0.2bn inflows in Sep’15). Short and Leverage Long focused ETFs lost momentum and experienced outflows of -€0.4bn and -€0.2bn, respectively, over the same period.

European ETF flows dominated by Fixed Income ETFs

Fixed income ETF flows dominated overall European ETF flows in October recording +€3.5bn inflows vs. the region’s overall inflows of +€6.4bn. Within fixed income, investment grade led the flows, attracting +€2.9bn over the last month (+€20.4bn YTD). High yield bonds reversed previous month’s trend and recorded inflows of +€0.7bn in October (-€0.4bn in September & +€3.9bn YTD).

European ETFs Turnover (%) increased into overall Cash Equity

Turnover into European ETFs has significantly increased since the start of 2015. ETFs turnover (%) vs. the overall Cash Equity market has increased to 9.1% from 7.6% in 2014.

European ETF Market Trends August 2015 in brief

European ETF Market Trends August 2015 in brief

European ETF Market Trends August 2015 in brief European ETF market flows continued their positive trend in August 2015. NET NEW ASSETS (NNA) during this month amounted to EUR 9.7 billion, close to January 2015’s record high of EUR 10.9 billion. Total Assets under Management are up 17% vs. the end of 2014, reaching EUR 425 billion including a 4.8% market impact*. Ahead of the change in Fed monetary policy expected before the end of the year, investors are moving their allocation out of risky assets (Emerging Markets and High Yield) into equities in areas with modest but safe growth outlook (European equities).

Equity ETF flows rose significantly to EUR 7.3 billion. Investors have favoured developed markets with EUR 9.2 billion of inflows. European ETF inflows have reached high levels. ETFs in the European region gathered EUR 3.5 billion of inflows, France and peripheral equity inflows reached record high levels at EUR 373 million and EUR 326 million respectively. Flows were also positive on US ETFs at EUR 2 billion and on Japan at EUR 524 million. On the other hand, emerging market outflows have reached record levels of EUR 1.5 billion, close to the December 2014 record of EUR 1.8 billion. Country ETFs such as Indian, South Korean and Russian ETFs were among the most affected by investor fears of a riskier environment. Interestingly these concerns on emerging markets have also negatively impacted the Smart beta ETFs, which registered their first month of outflows for a year.

Fixed income ETF inflows were positive at EUR 2.3 billion. Interestingly these flows mainly affected European Govies at EUR 1.3 billion, which is close to January 2015’s record high. Investment grade corporate bond ETFs continue to see inflows, collecting EUR 403 million, while high yield bonds registered outflows of EUR 173 million with investors fleeing the riskiest assets.

Commodity flows were negative at EUR 27 million. Broad ETFs flows rebounded to EUR 162 million while precious metal ETFs saw EUR 189 million of outflows.

*75% of MSCI ACWI NTR +4.6%, and 25% of the JPM Global aggregate +5.4% between 31/12/14 and 31/08/15 in EUR

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Large Inflows into European Equities, Sovereigns and Corporate Bonds

Large Inflows into European Equities, Sovereigns and Corporate Bonds

Deutsche Bank – Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy – Europe

European Monthly ETF Market Review – Large Inflows into European Equities, Sovereigns and Corporate Bonds

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Data in this report is as of 31st July 2015

European ETP Highlights

As of the end of July 2015, global ETP assets stood at $2.9 trillion with European ETP assets at $508bn (€459bn). In July, European ETPs continued its positive trend from the previous month and registered net inflows of +€7.5bn (+€1.4bn in the prev. month). Equity and fixed income ETFs both benefitted from inflows, receiving +€6.1bn and +€2.2bn respectively. Commodity ETPs listed in Europe saw outflows of -€0.8bn during the same period.

US Sector, Quant and China Sovereign bond product launches

State Street launched 9 sector ETFs that provide exposure to US equity GICS sectors. Lyxor launched 6 quantitative strategy equity ETFs in July while Deutsche Bank listed Europe’s first fixed income ETF providing exposure to Chinese Government bonds.

European equities continue to be favoured while fixed income ETF reverses trend to experience inflows.

European and US listed ETFs with European Equity exposure observed strong monthly inflows benefitting from +$4bn (+$19.4bn YTD inflows) and +$3.2bn (+$34bn YTD) respectively following the Greek resolution. We also observed a reversal trend in the fixed income space where Sovereign (+€1bn) and Corporate Bonds (+€1bn) dominated inflows. This follows two consecutive months of outflows.

European listed ETFs tracking Chinese equities experiences small outflows despite $8bn inflows into the market through Asian listings

The recent Chinese stock market fall had spurred the Chinese Government to take measures to mitigate the risk of a continued sell-off. This market volatility had elevated trading activity in ETFs tracking China globally. Investors trading European listed Chinese ETFs were net sellers (-€218mn). However in Asia, ETFs tracking Chinese equities benefited from large inflows of +$8.1bn.

Gold loses its shine while crude oil witness inflows

In July, Gold based ETPs witnessed outflows of -€0.7bn amid falling gold prices. Commodity prices have recently taken a hit following concerns of lower demand from China. Crude oil ETPs, which have been registering inflows since start of the year continued its positive run in July by registered inflows of +€266mn (YTD net flow at +€1.1bn). This is despite the fact that the oil price has been in a downward trend.