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Will Eurozone bonds go ‘back to the future’?

Headlines surrounding the Italian budget saga and sovereign debt ratings have certainly garnered their fair share of interest within the global bond markets. Interestingly, the heightened anxiety level has produced fears of another potential contagion event, as investors witnessed during the ‘Grexit’ 1 episode. Naturally, that has raised the question of whether Eurozone bond markets could experience a “back to the future” moment; in other words, reliving the past.

When contemplating the possibility of such a scenario developing, it is rather useful to examine how various Eurozone sovereign debt markets have behaved in this latest bout of uncertainty, more specifically looking at the countries that were full participants in the Grexit contagion event (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland). These four nations were deemed the periphery countries of the Eurozone, and as the reader will recall, were at the centre of concern, not only if Greece elected to leave the Euro, but also due to their own respective fiscal/financial challenges at the time.

Figure 1: 10-year government bond yield spreads vs. German bunds

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, 29 October 2018. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. Note: Ireland bond data was discontinued between 11 October 2011 15 March 2013.

The initial results are in, and thus far, the concerns raised regarding Italy have been confined to Italy and have not yet spread to the other three aforementioned countries. A valuable tool in discerning potential ‘contagion’ fears lies in the yield difference, or spread, between an asset that is viewed as being more of a safe-haven, such as the 10-year German Bund and the like maturity sovereign issues of the other countries in question. As figure 1 clearly reveals, this most recent bout of concern has stood in stark contrast to the Grexit experience. Indeed, the ‘Grexit experience’ really captures the issues that were confronting not just Greece, but the other four periphery countries as well and lasted from roughly mid-2010 to mid-2013 or so.

Let’s look at some the numbers or spread levels for perspective. The peak period of duress was captured between 2011 and 2012. At that time, Portugal experienced the most notable spread widening versus the bund, with the peak differential ballooning out +1560 basis points (bp) in January 2012. For Spain and Italy, the peak readings were +639bp and +553bp, respectively. So, where are we now? The Portugal 10-year spread stands at +150bp as of this writing, with Spain coming in a bit narrower at +117bp. On a year-to-date basis, both readings are essentially unchanged. Examining developments from a more recent context when the Italian budget and credit rating news started making front-page headlines in late September, the Spanish 10-year spread widened out only 19bp, while for Portugal the increase was also on the more modest side of 16bp. What about Italy? The Italian 10-year BTP/bunds spread has risen by almost +140bp year-to-date, and +65bp from late September.

Where do we go from here? The recent actions from both Moody’s and S&P ratings agencies seem to have lifted a veil of uncertainty on the Italian government bond market, at least for now. For the record, Moody’s did lower the actual rating for Italy a notch to Baa3, but shifted their outlook to ‘stable’. For S&P, the rating itself was left unchanged at BBB, however the outlook was downgraded to ‘negative’. In the immediate aftermath of the S&P announcement, the Italian 10-year yield fell 35bp from its most recent peak, with the BTP/bund spread narrowing 25bp.

Conclusion

Despite the fact the worst credit rating fears were not realized, the potential for continued negative headlines has not been removed. To be sure, S&P noted the Italian budget outlook will remain a key area of contention in their lowering of the sovereign outlook. The EU’s ‘negative opinion’ regarding Italy’s budget will more than likely be a saga that continues to play out. In fact, the recent disappointing print of zero growth in Q3 GDP quarter/quarter does not bode well on the budget front either. While contagion is always a risk if developments were to spiral downward from here, the lack of a clear-cut trend for the other periphery countries up to this point has been somewhat encouraging but stay tuned the outlook remains a volatile one.

All data from Bloomberg as of 29 October 2018.

1 Refers to Greece’s possible withdrawal from the Eurozone, which made frequent news headlines from 2012 to 2015.

By Kevin Flanagan

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Europe is near to closing the gap with the US

ETF Securities Equity Research: Europe is near to closing the gap with the US

Highlights

Europe’s recovery is moving towards expansion while the US is in the late stages of this cycle.
The impact of tighter monetary policy, higher wage growth coupled with the stronger US dollar will weigh on US corporate profitability.
Earnings growth projections in Europe are expected to bridge the gap with the US by Q4 2018.
Europe’s valuation discount to the US is rooted in key sectors.

The US equity market has been steadily outperforming its European peers since the global financial crisis. The current gap between the two markets have widened to its highest level since then. The US equity markets’ outperformance can be justified by the past accommodative monetary policy, strong earnings momentum and technological innovation. In sharp contrast, the Eurozone has had to contend with two recessions since the financial crisis. Nevertheless, despite political headwinds, Europe is certainly appearing to turn a corner with a more favourable economic backdrop starting to feed into corporate profitability.

Macro outlook supports Eurozone

The Eurozone is witnessing higher services and manufacturing activity in comparison to the US. Added to that Q4 2017 Eurozone GDP growth (2.7% y-o-y) has outpaced the US (2.4% y-o-y) for eight consecutive quarters (Source: Bloomberg). Eurozone GDP growth has been heavily reliant on strong external demand. However as France and the periphery re-emerge, the expansion cycle is being powered by domestic demand. Since the start of 2014, we have witnessed a steady reduction in the negative output gaps in Spain, Italy and the Rest of Europe (RoEA).

This amount of slack in the economy is useful in understanding the interplay between supply and demand and gauging the phase of the economic cycle. The Eurozone will require several years of above-trend growth in order to absorb the slack in the economy. For this reason, the build-up of inflation is likely to be gradual. In comparison, the US is far deeper into its recovery and inflation is likely to garner pace significantly.

Wage growth to impact US profit margins

Despite the rising inflation outlook in the US, wage growth (known to be a lagging economic indicator) has been anaemic for more than a decade. However, the wage increase in January 2018, the strongest y-o-y gain since 2009, marked a turn of events. With the unemployment rate below most estimates of its natural rate and wage growth expected to accelerate, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has enough ammunition to hike interest rates faster than anticipated. The European Central Bank (ECB) will continue to remain data dependent.

For now, the existing slack in the labour market will justify a slower path to normalising monetary policy. The likely consequence of such a view is that the Fed will tighten monetary policy much faster than the ECB. In turn, the impact of higher wage growth in the US is likely to erode profit margins, a trend that we are starting to see as US margins plateau while European margins continue to pace higher.

Furthermore, the deterioration of the US fiscal balance subsequent to the US tax reform and the substantial increase in spending should support the US dollar higher. This could materially affect profits of export-oriented sectors in the US.

Earnings gap could narrow by Q4 2018

The fourth quarter reporting season has been strong for both the US and Europe, evident from the blended earnings growth rate of 14% and 37% respectively (Source: Bloomberg).

Expansion of revenue growth has been a fundamental support for the US equity markets while companies exposed to high operating leverage have benefitted the most on European equity markets. The best performing European sectors in Q4 2017 were energy, basic materials, financials and consumer goods. While US markets saw the highest earnings growth across technology, basic materials and energy. Looking ahead, the positive trajectory of Eurozone Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMIs), even taking into consideration the recent pull back in February, indicate European profit margins are set to expand further.

Pace of earnings projections favour Europe

Looking ahead, the projections for 2018 Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth continue to rise for both economies. However, the pace is slowing in the US in sharp contrast to Europe where estimates are set to accelerate towards year-end. Energy and materials sector are contributing the most to the pace of revisions going forward.

Europe trading at a discount to US

Eurozone equities have been trading at a discount to US equities since 2011. Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings (CAPE) ratios at 22x earnings in Europe are currently trading at a 13 percent discount to the US at 25x, in spite of the recent sell off (Source: Bloomberg).

European companies have historically paid out a greater share of their earnings to shareholders in dividends than US companies. Higher dividend yields in Europe at 3.3% compared to US equities at 1.9% enhance the case for investing in European stocks (Source: Bloomberg).

In light of the above discussion, we expect Europe to bridge the gap with US equities over the course of the year supported by higher earnings projections, an improving macro backdrop and lower valuations. While political headwinds linger, evident from the success of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement in the recent Italian elections, we believe it is unlikely to derail Europe’s economic expansion.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 207 448 3330
E research@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

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This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information

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Spanien är i bättre skick än de andra PIGS-länderna

Ur ett värderingsperspektiv så är den spanska börsen ett köp då Spanien är i bättre skick än de andra PIGS-länderna. Det ser ut som det åter har kommit momentum i den spanska ekonomin.

PIIGS, PIGS eller PIG?

Under 1990-talet myntades begreppet PIGS för första gången. Det var en hänvisning till de de sydliga europeiska ländernas växande skuld och ekonomiska sårbarhet. Dessa länders namn Portugal, Italien, Grekland och Spanien kom att bidra till akronymen. Senare har även Irland kommit att omfattas, varvid förkortningen ändrades till PIIGS. I dag anses Irland i allmänhet inte med i denna grupp. Innan dessa länder gick med i EU devalverade de regelbundet sina valutor i syfte att förbli konkurrenskraftiga. Den så kallade Finanskrisen kom att drabba PIGS-ekonomierna hårt.

I motsats till de övriga tre länderna lyckades Spanien få sina offentliga finanser i ordning och lösa problemen inom banksektorn. Detta är ännu inte fallet i Italien, Portugal och Grekland.

En mur av oro

Betydar detta att den ekonomiska himlen är blå i Spanien? Absolut inte. Spanien är en del av Europeiska unionen. När nya problem uppstår i t.ex. Den italienska banksektorn kan inte utesluta säkerheter. Även inom gränserna måste Spanien hantera problem som den katalanska önskan om självständighet. Den katalanska premiärministern Carles Puigdemont planerar en bindande folkomröstning 2017. När nya problem uppstår i t.ex. Den italienska banksektorn kan inte utesluta säkerheter.

Ekonomisk miljö

Euroområdets ekonomi rapporterade en stark start 2017 enligt Markit. Eurozone Composite PMI för januari kom ut vid 54,4. För juni var samma siffra 56,3.

Även i Spanien finns en tydlig ekonomisk svängvind. Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI gick upp till 55,6 i januari 2017, upp från 55,3 under föregående månad, och fortsätter i en tydlig uptrend. Under juni 2017 var siffran 54,7 .

Markit Spain Services PMI sjönk till 54,2 i januari 2017 från 55 i föregående månad, men kvarstår på ett mycket hälsosamt ekonomiskt territorium. Den senaste siffran hamnade på 58.3. Detta gör att Spanien under juni 2017 rapporterade den starkaste ekonomiska tillväxten på 22 månader.

Värdering

Det är ingen hemlighet att Europa är mycket billigare än USA. Jämfört med euroområdet har Spanien (mätt i form av iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF (NYSEARCA: EWP) en ännu lägre värdering, vilket framgår av tabell 1.

Tabell 1: Värdering

Vi tror att denna låga värdering är oförtjänt. Om flera anser detta kan Spanien komma att uppvärderas. En uppvärdering mot Eurozonen är bra, men även Europa som helhet är lågt värderat. Detta skulle kunna medföra ytterligare en uppvärdering.

Spanien IBEX35

IBEX 35 är en förkortning av Índice Bursátil Español som ordagrant betyder spanska börsens index. Detta index fungerar som ett referensindex för Bolsa de Madrid den spanska aktiemarknadens viktigaste börs. Detta index lanserades 1992 och består av de 35 mest omsatta spanska aktierna.

Draghi in no hurry to spook the market, just the Euro

Draghi in no hurry to spook the market, just the Euro. European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi wants to engineer a smooth transition away from ultra stimulative monetary policy…but not too soon, because inflationary forces remain depressed. The problem is the strength of the Euro, which further depresses inflation. The ECB wants a weaker Euro…

At the last ECB press conference, Draghi commented that there were ‘two…observations of this nature ([on] the link between the asset purchase programme and the inflation convergence), but there wasn’t any discussion…on normalisation’. This very measured language highlights the mindset of policymakers: cautious to ensure that inflation and wage gains are gaining a solid foothold. Inflation across the Eurozone was flat in June, contributing to a 1.3% annual growth over the past year. We must remember the mistake that the ECB made in raising rates in 2011, only to have to cut rates before year-end 2011.

In this way, the ECB remains conservative with their communication on the need for tapering, with President Draghi noting that ‘discussions should happen in the fall’ because ‘we are not there yet’ regarding inflation and price stability. President Draghi does not want a taper tantrum to push borrowing costs sharply higher. But a weaker Euro would be of assistance, both for lifting inflationary forces and for boosting economic demand.

The market has misjudged the reticence of the ECB

We feel that the market has misjudged the reticence of the ECB and that confidence in aggressive tapering in coming months misguided. In turn we feel the Euro bounce during the press conference will be transitory. Indeed, the long Euro trade is overcrowded, with futures market positioning at the highest level in over six years. In the face of weak inflation pressure, there are downside risks for the Euro. Meanwhile, option pricing shows that optimism, albeit trending higher, is much more subdued than within the futures market.

As a result, we continue to expect the near-term Euro strength to falter and to move lower until a more urgent need for tighter monetary policy for the Eurozone becomes a more strongly voiced position.

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.

db X-trackers creates range of low-cost fixed income Core ETFs

Deutsche Asset Management has established a range of db X-trackers fixed income Core ETFs that all use direct physical replication and have low annual all-in fees. db X-trackers creates range of low-cost fixed income Core ETFs

The fixed income Core range provides exposure to Eurozone and US government bonds, to the euro and US dollar corporate bond markets, and to the euro-denominated high-yield corporate bond market (see table below for a list of db X-trackers Core fixed income ETFs). Euro-hedged share classes of those ETFs providing exposure to USD corporate bond and US government bond markets are also available as part of the fixed income Core range.

In establishing the fixed income Core range the db x-trackers II EUR Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (DR) and the db x-trackers Barclays USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (DR) have had their annual all-in fees reduced from 0.2% per annum to 0.16% per annum.

“We already have low-cost db X-trackers Core ETFs covering major equity benchmarks, and investors will now welcome a similar focus on efficiency on the fixed income side,” said Simon Klein, Deutsche AM’s Head of ETF Sales, EMEA and APAC.

The db X-trackers equity Core ETFs range was established in 2014, providing major equity benchmark exposure starting at 0.07% all-in fee per annum. All db X-trackers Core ETFs use direct physical replication.

“The inclusion of a range of physical replication fixed income ETFs into the db X-trackers Core range helps give investors the exposures they need to create efficient, long-term core holdings in their portfolios,” added Klein.

For further information please contact:

John Ferry
Deutsche Asset Management
Email: john.ferry@db.com

1 Low cost main-stream benchmark trackers that can be considered suitable (long term) ”core” holdings in investors’ portfolios.

2 Investors should be aware that in addition to the All-In Fee, the ETF may incur other costs which may negatively impact the performance of their investment relative to the underlying index. Examples include: Brokerage and other transaction costs, financial transaction taxes or stamp duties as well as potential differences in taxation of either capital gains or dividend assumed in the relevant underlying index, and actual taxation of either capital gains or dividends in the ETF. The precise impact of these costs cannot be estimated reliably in advance as it depends on a variety of non-static factors. Investors are encouraged to consult the audited annual- and un-audited semi-annual reports for details.

[TABLE=171]

*Source: Deutsche Asset Management, 21 February 2017

Deutsche Asset Management

With EUR 706 billion of assets under management (as of December 31, 2016), Deutsche Asset Management¹ is one of the world’s leading investment management organizations. Deutsche Asset Management offers individuals and institutions traditional and alternative investments across all major asset classes.

¹ Deutsche Asset Management is the brand name of the Asset Management division of the Deutsche Bank Group. The respective legal entities offering products or services under the Deutsche Asset Management brand are specified in the respective contracts, sales materials and other product information documents.

Key risks

Investors should note that the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs1 are not capital protected or guaranteed and investors should be prepared and able to sustain losses of the capital invested up to a total loss.

Shares in db X-trackers UCITS ETFs which are purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the relevant fund. Investors must purchase and redeem such shares on the secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a market maker or a stock broker) and may incur fees for doing so (as further described in the applicable prospectus). In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value of a share in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF when buying shares on the secondary market, and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling such shares on the secondary market.

Investments in funds involve numerous risks including, among others, general market risks, credit risks, foreign exchange risks, interest rate risks and liquidity risks. The value of an investment in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount of their original investment.

Important Notice

This press release has been issued and approved by Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch and has been prepared solely for information purposes, and is not an offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Deutsche Bank AG is authorised under German Banking Law (competent authority: European Central Bank) and, in the United Kingdom, by the Prudential Regulation Authority. It is subject to supervision by the European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, and is subject to limited regulation in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority. Deutsche Bank AG is a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany, Local Court of Frankfurt am Main, HRB No. 30 000; Branch Registration in England and Wales BR000005 and Registered Address: Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB.

Please refer to the relevant fund’s full prospectus and the latest version of the Key Investor Information Document for more information on db X-trackers UCITS ETFs. These documents are available free of charge from Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch and constitute the only binding basis for purchase of shares in the ETFs. As explained in the relevant offering documents, distribution of ETFs is subject to restrictions in certain jurisdictions. The ETFs described herein may neither be offered for sale nor sold in the USA, in Canada, in Japan to US Persons or to persons residing in the USA.

All-in Fee:

Direct replication funds. • Investors should be aware that in addition to the All-In Fee, other factors may negatively impact the performance of their investment relative to the underlying index. • Examples include: Brokerage and other transaction costs, Financial Transaction Taxes or Stamp Duties as well as potential differences in taxation of either capital gains or dividend assumed in the relevant underlying index, and actual taxation of either capital gains or dividends in the fund. • The precise impact of these costs cannot be estimated reliably in advance as it depends on a variety of non-static factors. Investors are encouraged to consult the audited annual- and un-audited semi-annual reports for details.

db x-trackers UCITS ETFs are all ETFs of one of the following platforms: db x-trackers, db x-trackers II or Concept Fund Solutions plc.
© 2017 Deutsche Bank AG