IShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (NASDAQ: EMB), den största börshandlade fonden som spårar obligationerna i Emerging Markets,har utvecklats väl. Att efter fonden kämpade förra året mot bakgrund av stigande amerikanska räntor och starkare dollar ser allt nu ut att gå dess väg när investerare återvänder till obligationer utgivna av Emerging Markets.
EMB följer J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Core Index, ett marknadsvägt index. Potentiella investerare bör notera att eftersom länder med större skuld kommer att ha en större position i portföljen, eftersom det är ett marknadsvägt index. Vissa förvaltare, inklusive Morgan Stanley, ser möjligheter och återvänder till obligationer utgivna av Emerging Markets.
”Börshandlade fondinvesterare hällde 887 miljoner dollar i strategier knutna till tillgångsklassen eter Federal Reserves duvaktiga inriktning,” rapporterar Bloomberg. ”Mest, gick till iShares J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF, eller EMB, som tog in 539,7 miljoner dollar.
Andra idéer
Tillsammans med EMB kan räntebärande investerare titta på alternativ som Invesco Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt Portfolio (NYSEArca: PCY) och JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond ETF (NYSEArca: JPMB) för att få exponering för dollarnominerade obligationer utgivna av Emerging Markets.
”Investerare kan troligen trösta sig med att i framtiden kommer Feds försiktighet att försämra dollarn, vilket skulle göra det lättare för tillväxtmarknadsföretag som har inkomster i lokal valuta att betala tillbaka sin utlandsskuld. Samtidigt gör utsikterna för stabila låneutgifter i USA en högre avkastning på utvecklingsnivån mer tilltalande, säger Bloomberg.
EMB har ett 30-dagars SEC-avkastning på 5,37% och en effektiv duration på 7,19 år. Fondens treåriga standardavvikelse ligger knappt 8%.
Cirka 85% av EMB: s 465 innehav är klassade BBB, BB eller B.
Ökad efterfrågan i år för fonder som EMB ”beror på de framväxande marknaderna i tillväxtmarknaderna efter en särskilt grov 2018, enligt Bloomberg Intelligence-undersökningen som sade att årets flöden antagligen återspeglar botten”, säger Bloomberg.
Med aktiemarknaden fall minskar investerarnas förtroende för aktier. Kommer stigande räntor att avleda kapital från aktiemarknaden? Det är en effekt som kan komma av det kommande FED mötet den 18 till 19 december.
Kapitalmarknaderna förväntar sig en fjärde och slutlig räntehöjning av Federal Reserve i december. Detta skulle kunna leda till att investerarkapitalet omdirigeras från aktier eftersom de räntesatser som erbjuds av certifikat för inlåning (CD) skulle kunna ge ett mer attraktivt alternativ att parkera pengar. För riskavvikelsen kan detta vara ett mer trovärdigt alternativ. Speciellt med oktobers utförsäljningar och volatiliteten före Thanksgiving.
”Kontanter kommer att representera en konkurrenskraftig tillgångsklass till aktier för första gången på många år,” skriver Goldman Sachs i en analys till sina kunder.
Under höjden av den tio år långa börsuppgången var investerarnas känsla i ett riskfyllt läge med CDs som föll på vägen till följd av deras låga avkastning. Detta jämfört med andra riskfyllda tillgångar som högavkastningsobligationer eller teknikaktier. För att vara konkurrenskraftig har cd-räntorna klättrat så högt som 3% hos vissa onlinebanker jämfört med deras traditionella konkurrenter.
Traditionella banker bygger sina affärsmodeller kring kundens behållning och bekvämlighet snarare än att försöka locka nya kunder utifrån högre räntor. Onlinebanker kan dock kringgå de driftskostnader som behövs för traditionella banker och erbjuda högre räntor på sina produkter som inlåning.
Öka sina vinstmarginaler
Under tiden känner företagen tryck från investerare för att öka sina vinstmarginaler, eftersom volatiliteten fortsätter att pressa aktiekurserna. Företagen är angelägna om att öka sina aktiekurser genom att köpa tillbaka egna aktier och därigenom minska antalet aktier på den öppna marknaden.
Förutom återköp gäller det också att brygga att flykten till kontanter kan påverka börskursernanegativt, men vissa analytiker har avvikande åsikter. ”Jag tror inte att investerare behöver oroa sig för räntorna som påverkar återköp av aktier,” säger Kevin Kelly, VD för Benchmark Investments. ”Räntorna är fortfarande historiskt låga.”
Att dölja dessa bekymmer är den perfunktoriska investerarrörelsen till obligationer-den vanliga säkerheten när aktiemarknaden går ned. Stigande avkastningar under oktobers utförsäljningar berodde delvis på nedgången i aktier, men eftersom aktiekurserna fortsätter att uppleva djupare nedgångar har en flykt tillbaka till obligationer blivit resultatet.
Den billigare amerikanska statsskulden har säkert lockat utländska investerare, särskilt från Japan. ”Eftersom Fed är ganska bullish på räntehöjningar till neutrala nivåer, stöder detta valutaparet USDJPY. Vissa investerare verkar vara köpa amerikanska obligationer utan valutasäkringar, säger Naoya Oshikubo, chef för Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management.
När räntorna stiger framgår Skilda syner på Börshandlade fonder för banker allt tydligare. Trots att Federal Reserve har höjt räntorna flera gånger i år så har sektorn för finansiella tjänster gått sämre än den bredare aktieindexen. Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLF)och konkurrerande börshandlade fonder försöker skaka av sig den sjukdomen.
De stora bankernas utbrott kan stå inför sin början, säger Michael Bapis, VD på Vios Advisors på Rockefeller Capital Management.
Kortfristiga räntorna stiger som svar på amerikanska räntehöjningar
Fondförvaltare hävdade att bankerna redan har sett toppen, vilket pekar på några röda flaggor som US Treasury Curve-flattningen. Detta eftersom de kortfristiga räntorna stiger till följd av amerikanska räntehöjningar från Federal Reserve och långsiktiga räntor dämpar tillväxt och handelshänsyn. Den smalare avkastningskurvan skulle vanligen minska bankvinsterna när de försöker att vinst på spreaden. De kortfristiga räntor påverkar en banks upplåningskostnader och långfristiga räntesatser begränsar hur mycket de kan ta ut på lån.
Den genomsnittliga amerikanska fonden har minskat sin andel i finansiella företag med nästan 1,1 procentenheter under andra kvartalet till cirka 14 procent. Detta är den största minskningen sedan 2013, rapporterade Reuters. Ändå är högre räntor en viktig faktor för bankerna. FED väntas höja räntorna senare i månaden och i december.
”Högre räntor tenderar att öka bankernas lönsamhet genom att öka nettoräntemarginalen eller skillnaden mellan vad de betalar i upplåning och vad de tar ut på sin utlåning”, enligt CNBC. Large-cap banker är fortfarande attraktiva eftersom de har investerat i online plattformar och mobilappar, vilket gör företagen mer tilltalande för unga millenialsoch mindre beroende av dyrare fysiska kontor.
”Sektorn är också på väg mot en ökad teknisk integration, ett starkt spel för framtiden, säger Bapis, rapporterar CNBC. Investerare har emellertid tagit ut 223 miljoner dollar från XLF under det senaste kvartalet. Låna pengar snabbt
Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEArca: XLF), den största börshandlade fonden som spårar sektorn för finansiella tjänster och konkurrerande finansiella tjänster, har tidigare angivits som mottagare av den nyligen godkända skattereformslagstiftningen i USA. Nu funderar många investerare på vad bankerna skall göra med sina ökade kassaflöden? Kommer de stora vinsterna leda till ökade utdelningaroch aktieåterköp? Gynnas finanssektorn av aktieåterköp?
Kapitalnivåerna vid de stora amerikanska banker betraktas av de flesta aktieanalytiker som fasta. Trumpadministrationens skattereformarbete ses dessutom som en potentiell katalysator för finanssektorn, men det återstår att se om den ansträngningen kommer att komma till liv. Vissa branschobservatörer förväntar sig att skattereformen skulle hjälpa bankerna att öka vinsten på ett betydande sätt.
Kapitaltillväxten som överstiger industrins behov
Bankerna rapporterar en årlig kapitaltillväxt som överstiger industrins behov, och många har valt att använda dessa medel för att belöna aktieägarna genom återköp av aktier och utdelningar.
Men vissa aktieanalytiker har oroat sig för att dessa återköp av aktier inte är fruktansvärda effektiva, och pekar på en låg avkastning på investeringen. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods ’Frederick Cannon argumenterar dock för att dessa bekymmer är överdrivna. ”
Avreglering kan också hjälpa den finansiella sektorn att förbättra sina marginaler. President Donald Trump har visat sin iver för att skära ned på byråkratin och ta bort några av de efterfinansiella krisregler som har kvävt branschen.
Den stigande räntemiljön är bra för räntenettot
Samtidigt är den stigande räntemiljön också bra för räntenettot för banker och än mer för försäkringsbolagen. Stiger räntorna kan bankerna ta mer betalt av sina kunder när de vill låna pengar, med resultat att deras marginaler blir bättre. Sambla är en svensk aktör som arbetar med att sänka lånekostnaderna för sina kunder. Med tanke på den senaste styrkan i USAs sysselsättningsdata, förväntar sig många att Federal Reserve höjer räntan minst tre gånger i år.
Cannon konstaterar att bankens bokförda värde per aktie ökar så länge som återköp av aktier inte överstiger vinsten. Vidare, även om en bank allokerar 150 procent av vinsten (50 % i utdelningar och 100 % i återköp av aktier) samtidigt som den återköper egna aktier till två gånger bokfört värde, bibehålls bokfört värde per aktie, förutsatt att ingen tillgångstillväxt sker.
Några bra nyheter för XLF och liknande börshandlade fonder är att finanssektorn allmänt anses vara den enda sektorn i USA som är attraktivt värderad i förhållande till den bredare marknaden och dess egna långsiktiga medelvärden. Värderingarna i finanssektorn ser fortfarande relativt billiga ut jämfört med den bredare marknaden. Sektorns värderingar ligger fortfarande cirka 25 % under genomsnittet sedan början av 1990-talet.
Tax Reform Adds Fuel to Gold’s Engine a Gold Commentary July by Joe Foster, Portfolio Manager/Strategist
Gold’s Yearend Pattern Repeated: Oversold Ahead of Rate Increase Then Rebound
The Federal Reserve (the ”Fed”) raised rates for the third time in 2017 following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 12. Since 2015, gold has established a yearend pattern where it becomes oversold ahead of the December Fed rate decision. This pattern repeated again this year as the gold price trended to a five-month low of $1,236 per ounce on the day of the Fed meeting and then promptly rebounded from the Fed-induced low to end December with a $28.11 gain (2.2%) at $1,303.05 per ounce. Commodity price strength also aided gold as copper and crude oil both made multi-year highs in the last week of the year.
Gold stocks also tested their second half lows on December 12 and, like gold bullion, staged a comeback to end December with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index 1 (GDMNTR) rising 4.6% and the MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index2 (MVGDXJTR) gaining 8.1% for the month.
Strong 2017 Performance on Geopolitical Risk, U.S. Dollar Weakness, and Commodities Strength
Gold and gold stocks performed well in 2017. The gold price advanced $150.78 per ounce (13.1%), the GDMNTR was up 12.2%, and the MVGDXJTR gained 6.2%. These gains were impressive for a market in which investors generally showed little interest in gold while being preoccupied with new records in the stock market, bitcoin, and ancient art. Gold also did not receive much help from the physical markets, as Indian demand remained near the lows of 2016 and China’s central bank refrained from purchasing gold. The resilience in the price of gold came from a global sense of geopolitical risk and uncertainty, overall strength in commodities, and unexpected weakness in the U.S. dollar. Gold stocks typically outperform gold bullion in a positive gold market. However, this year was one of mean reversion after a strong 2016 (GDMNTR up 55%), along with a lack of sizzle that investors are seeing elsewhere. Healthy earnings and increased guidance among gold companies were not enough to capture much investor interest in 2017.
Tax Reform Adds to Deficit, Increases Systemic Risk
Anyone hoping that Washington D.C. would become fiscally responsible under Republican Party rule has seen their hopes go up in flames, as new tax rules appear likely to drive the U.S. deeper into debt. Some say economic growth created by tax cuts will likely generate more government revenue. In a recent Wall Street Journal article, ex-Congressional Budget Office (CBO) director Douglas Holtz-Eakin stated that he believes tax policy can partially offset costs if it is well designed. We believe the new tax code is not well designed, as it is nearly as complicated as the old one, widely unpopular, and contains many provisions set to expire in 2025. The tax windfall corporations will receive comes at a time when profits are high and cheap credit is plentiful. If companies were inclined to spend more on capital expansions, they would have done so already, but instead many companies have used cash to buy back stock and pay dividends. We believe it is too late in the cycle for tax stimulus to have a lasting effect. In addition, fiscal stimulus has limited effects when debt levels are high, as they are today. None of the federal income tax cuts since 1980 have succeeded in shrinking the deficit through growth. The Reagan tax cuts of 1981 could not forestall a recession that started in July of that year, caused by tighter Fed policy. Similarly, any growth resulting from Trump’s tax cuts could give the Fed more latitude to raise rates.
Tax reform will add an estimated $1.5 trillion to the deficit over ten years, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT). In October, the U.S. Treasury Department reported the budget shortfall increased 14% in 2017 to $666 billion, which is equal to 3.3% of GDP. At $16 trillion, public federal debt is 85% of GDP and Harvard University economist Jason Furman estimates debt escalating to 98% of GDP by 2028. The CBO figures interest charges will consume 15% of federal revenues in 2027, up from 8% currently. The annual report from the trustees of the nation’s largest entitlement programs show the trust funds running out for Medicare in 2029 and for Social Security in 2034. The new tax law only piles more onto this growing mountain of debt.
Total non-financial debt in the U.S. stands at $47 trillion, equal to 250% of GDP and $14 trillion more than at the peak of the last credit bubble when debt/GDP stood at 225%. Thanks to below market rates engineered by central banks, debt service has not yet become a problem. Low rates have forced investors to take on more risk in order to generate acceptable returns. Another side effect is the proliferation of European ”zombie companies”, meaning their interest cost exceeds earnings and kept on life support by banks fearful of losses if the companies declare bankruptcy. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimates that 10% of publicly traded companies in six major European countries are zombies. As central banks embark on tighter policies, at some point higher rates could create debt service problems. Gluskin Sheff3 reckons every percentage point rise in the level of rates will ultimately drain 2.5% out of nominal GDP growth.
Looming Economic Downturn, Decline in Markets Supports Gold Allocation
It appears the only way to stop sovereign debt from growing is through tax increases or spending cuts. By now it should be clear that these options are politically impossible, which suggests that deficits will continue to grow until they cause a crisis severe enough to motivate change. ”Crypto-mania” and a stock market that goes nowhere but up indicates that a crisis is the last thing on investors’ minds. However, in our opinion, we are at a stage in the cycle when concerns should be high. The expansion is heading into its ninth year. The economy is at full employment and the personal savings rate has declined from 6% in 2015 to 2.9% in November. By now many have bought their first home, a new car, remodeled the kitchen, taken that overseas vacation, or bought a second home. Some are in a position to speculate on their favorite ETF, cryptocurrency, or FAANG stock (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google). There comes a point when investors are all-in and something happens that triggers a selloff – a geopolitical event, an economic downturn, or a black swan 4 emerges. Markets decline, but there are few investors with the capacity or desire to buy more, so markets decline more. Momentum kicks in and there’s more selling until sentiment turns for the worse. The selloff becomes a contagion that spreads uncontrollably. It has happened to tech stocks and it’s happened to instruments linked to mortgage securities. It is likely to happen again.
Based on the gold price strength following December rate increases in 2015 and 2016, we expect to see firmness in the gold price in the first quarter. However, headwinds may come for gold if economic growth enables the Fed to tighten more than expected. Also, the U.S. dollar might strengthen if the new tax code causes corporations to repatriate profits stockpiled overseas. We believe any weakness in gold during the first half of 2018 could be transitory. Moving through 2018 and into 2019, we believe the chance of an economic downturn increases, along with the probability of a significant decline in the markets. High levels of debt could cause a downturn to turn into a financial crisis. We now know that quantitative easing5 and below-market rates have failed to generate needed growth or inflation. In the next crisis, look for central banks to resort to even more radical policies, such as directly funding treasuries. It is conceivable that there could be global currency debasement on a scale never seen before. In such a scenario, hard assets, especially gold and gold stocks, could significantly outperform most, if not all, other asset classes in our opinion. There comes a time in every economic cycle when investors should seek portfolio insurance. We believe the time is now.
With more than 30 years of gold industry experience, Foster began his gold career as a boots on the ground geologist, evaluating mining exploration and development projects. Foster is Portfolio Manager and Strategist for the Gold and Precious Metals strategy.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE
1 NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.
2 MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
3 Gluskin Sheff + Associates Inc., a Canadian independent wealth management firm, manages investment portfolios for high net worth investors, including entrepreneurs, professionals, family trusts, private charitable foundations, and estates.
4 A black swan is an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict; these events are typically random and are unexpected.
5 Quantitative Easing by a central bank increases the money supply engaging in open market operations in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.
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