Det finns en del av aktiemarknaden där Du kan göra 1 000 procent på aktiemarknaden. Många erfarna börshandlare är alltid långa en del av sitt kapital i denna sektor. Hur har Du placerat Din kapital? Har Du någon exponering mot denna sektor?
Det är Prospekteringsbolag, det vill säga de små bolag som ägnar all sin energi åt att söka efter nya fyndigheter av till exempel guld, olja eller järnmalm. Just det, en vältajmad placering kan ge en investerare 1 000 procent på aktiemarknaden, ibland ännu mer.
Så här fungerar det
Naturresursindustrin domineras av gigantiska multinationella gruvföretag. Dessa stora företag har marknadsvärden på 10 miljarder dollar … 50 miljarder dollar … till och med 100 miljarder dollar. Steve Sjuggerud har skrivit om den växande uppgången i dessa företag, som stora koppargruvor som Freeport-McMoRan och den brasilianska järnmalmsproducenten Vale.
Företag gillar att stanna i gruvdriftens verksamhet … De gillar att fokusera på själva utvinningen och bearbetningen av mineralfyndigheter. De tenderar att lämna ”letar efter fyndigheterna” hos de små företag som heter ”prospekteringsföretag”.
Sektorn tenderar att rusa
Du kan överväga om Du skall köpa dessa små outfits ”bloodhounds” i naturresursindustrin. De beger sig till öknar, djungler och andra platser de tror kan dölja en stor fyndighet. Det är riskabelt, ”hit eller miss” -arbete … vilket gör dessa företag till några av de mest volatila aktierna på marknaden. Sektorn tenderar att rusa och falla som galen.
Du kan se den i tabellen nedan … Det visar ”juniorindex” (TSX Venture Index) sedan 2003. Från 2003 till 2007 ökade juniorerna. Under 2008 led de en enorm kollaps. Sedan ökade de mer än 300% av sin efterkollapsbotten.
2011 för oss till idag … och orsakerna till att denna sektor skulle kunna leverera 1 000 procent på aktiemarknaden…
Som Porter Stansberry nyligen beskrev, skapar Europas regeringar enorma krediter för att avvärja en ekonomisk kollaps. Amerikanska centralbanken är också desperat att skapa inflation för att öka tillgångspriserna. Detta ger en hausseeffekt för guld, silveroch andra råvaror. Och vad är hausseeffekt för guld, silver och andra råvaror är hausseeffekt för råvaruaktierna … både stora och små.
I det här andra diagrammet kan du se hur den hausseefulla grundbilden orsakar den slagna prospekteringssektorn att se lite ”mindre dålig” ut.
Med tanke på att många prospekteringsbolag är billiga, hur USA och Europas enkla pengepolicyer kan skapa inflation, och den förbättrade kartbilden … är nu en utmärkt tid för att gå lång i prospekteringsbolag.
Skulle guld klättra över 2 000 dollar per ounce i nästa år, skulle det kunna leda till en mani här. Det är inte ovanligt för bra junior resursföretag att stiga med tusentals procent under stora manier.
En blygsam mängd investerarpengar få aktiekurserna att rusa
Den stora spekulanten Doug Casey säger när den genomsnittliga investeraren vaknar till vinstpotentialen i den här lilla sektorn, det är som att försöka tömma Hoover Dam med en trädgårdsslang. Med andra ord, eftersom den här sektorn är liten, kan till och med en blygsam mängd investerarpengar få aktiekursernaatt rusa.
Återigen, kom ihåg att större företag som Freeport McMoRan är lämpliga för de flesta människor. Men om du är en erfaren trader kan detta vara en stor möjlighet … och det är dags att vara lång.
Enligt Ian Gordon, på den kanadensiska analysfirman Longwave Group som ligger i delstaten British Colombia så är det några viktiga saker att titta på när man ska köpa aktier i s.k Junior Exploration Companies inom guldbranschen.
Man ska investera i juniorer som har licenser i redan befintliga gruvor eller i dess omedelbara närhet och som har haft produktion under många år, eftersom det sannolikt finns mer att få till minsta möjliga risk -Citat: ”investerare bör försöka fokusera på företag som har markpositioner kring befintliga eller tidigare gruvor, under teorin om att detta förmodligen är där mer guld kan hittas med lägsta risk.
Han säger också att man ska leta efter juniorer där ett större producerande bolag har en minoritetspost i juniorbolaget – Ett tecken på att verksamheten ser lovande ut – Citat: ”Han rekommenderar också att söka ut juniorer med minoritetspengar som innehas av större producenter, ett tecken på att fyndigheterna är lovande ”
After months of negotiation, Freeport-McMoRan – the operator of the world’s second largest copper mine – has caved-in and agreed to sell a majority stake in the Grasberg mine to the Indonesian government.
The Grasberg mine shut operations for most of February 2017 as the Indonesian government failed to renew the company’s ore export licence. Although a temporary export licence was awarded, Freeport and the Indonesian government have been embroiled in a bitter battle to control the mine. We argued in Copper – strong fundamentals and improving sentiment that the ongoing negotiations posed a threat to further disruptions at Grasberg.
Eases our concerns about further mine disruption
This deal partially eases our concerns about further mine disruption this year at Grasberg. However, we note that key elements of the deal have yet to be thrashed out. Freeport values Grasberg at US$16.2bn. The government only owns about 9% of the mine at the moment. Purchasing another 42% (to get to 51%), could cost the government US$6.8bn. Based on discussions early this year, it does not appear that the Indonesian government shares the same valuation, insisting unmined copper reserves should not be included. Until details are agreed on, the threat of further disruptions linger.
If the deal goes ahead, it will remove one of the road-blocks to Freeport making further investments in the mine. As a large part of the open-pit mine has been exhausted, the miner will need to deeper into the rock beneath it. Freeport is expected to invest between US$17bn and US$20bn in Grasberg through to 2031 and will be awarded operating rights until 2041. It will also need to build a new smelting facility as part of the deal. Given the dearth of investment by miners over the past 3 years, the new commitment from Freeport will be welcome in securing future supply.
Copper prices have continued to rally despite the news of the agreement, indicating the market shares some of our scepticism of the success of the deal.
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Highlights
Weak Chinese demand weighs on commodity prices.
European and US earnings garner momentum for equities.
US dollar appreciates as the Federal Reserve conditions the market for rate increases this year.
Commodities extended their declines this week and their impact was clearly resonated as the world’s leading energy and mining stocks across the globe posted losses in their Q2 earnings release. As these companies trim future revenue outlooks and cut capex and therefore reduce production, their impact should work their way back in the form of higher commodity prices. Greece’s stock markets are set to open today marking a slight hope of stabilization after weeks of riots, bank closures and emergency financing. Looking ahead the PMI Manufacturing data in the Eurozone, jobs data in the US and central bank meetings in Japan and UK will be the focus of next week’s economic calendar.
Commodities
Weak Chinese demand weighs on commodity prices. Copper stockpiles are at their highest in 18 months as reported by the LME. Amidst the backdrop of copper price trading at a 6 year low, the world’s largest producers namely Freeport McMoRan, First Quantum and Antofagasta planned to cut back on production as they struggle to remain profitable. Power restrictions, delayed projects and cost cutting threaten to curtail supply, which we believe will be supportive for copper prices. Despite the unexpected decline in stockpiles of 4.2m barrels to 459.7m against the market forecast for 850,000 barrel increase, oil continued to tread in bear market territory as negative sentiment on China’s growth prospects weighed on prices. Corn fell by 7.4% after the International Grains Council raised its estimate for Chinese corn production by 5m metric tonnes to an all-time high 225m tonnes, allaying concerns of bad weather damaging corn fields in the U.S. and Europe. Tin rose 8.6% last week on the back of lower Indonesian exports (the world’s largest supplier).
Equities
European and US earnings garner momentum for equities. Despite a volatile start to the week led by the decline in Chinese benchmark indices, corporate earnings in the US and Europe helped restore confidence in global equity markets. European & US stocks posted an 8.3% and 4.5% earnings surprise among the 65% and 70% of companies that reported so far on the Eurostoxx 600 and S&P 500 Index respectively. Investors are increasingly realigning their portfolio towards Europe over US equities as better valuations, lower euro and improving economic growth favor the region. Meanwhile MSCI China A-Shares ended the week 9.8% lower.
Currencies
US dollar appreciates as the Federal Reserve conditions the market for rate increases this year. In its latest statement the Fed said it needs to see “some further improvement in the labor market,” adding the modifier “some,” to its previous statement (indicating it is closer to the mark). This week’s US payrolls data will therefore carry a lot of weight in determining the timing of rate increases. Weak oil prices took its toll on the Canadian economy, with monthly GDP declining for a fifth consecutive month, supporting the Central bank of Canada’s July 15 decision to cut borrowing costs. The Canadian dollar depreciated 4.2% against the US dollar. Despite Swedish GDP beating expectations (3% vs 2.5% y-o-y expected), the Swedish Krona depreciated as the market expects interest rates to remain negative rates to maintain that pace of growth.
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