Markets contained following Trump upset

ETF Securities Markets contained following Trump upsetMarkets contained following Trump upset

Trade Idea – FX Weekly – Markets contained following Trump upset

  • The market calm that has followed Trump’s victory is unlikely to persist in the medium term.
  • Political risks remain elevated in Europe and the shock result could garner momentum for anti-establishment populist parties ahead of key elections.
  • Safe haven assets and currencies are likely to remain well supported as uncertainty continues to characterise the financial landscape.

Against the odds

In a similar set up to the EU referendum, Donald Trump has managed to defy poll-based forecasts and betting odds to become the 45th president of the US. After capturing key electoral votes in swing states Florida and Ohio, Trump managed to secure victory in the early hours of Wednesday morning, shocking financial markets and sending risk assets tumbling. However in contrast to the aftermath of the EU referendum, the market moves that followed this shock result have been fairly muted (see Figure 1). Sharp rallies in safe havens assets during Asian trading hours were significantly tempered as a humble victory speech by Trump went some way to assuage market concerns and foster hopes of a more moderate President-elect. In the medium term, we do not expect the calm that has currently descended on markets to last, as elevated political uncertainty in the US and Europe sees risk-off sentiment dominate trading. This environment should continue to support the price of gold and keep safe haven currencies such as the JPY and CHF well bid against the US Dollar.

(Click to enlarge)

Policies unknown

The hope for many has always been that Trump’s controversial pledges made during his presidential campaign were merely aimed at garnering public support and were not a true reflection of his underlying political goals. His victory speech went some way towards this idea and assured investors of his intentions to pursue a more mainstream line as US president. However, the issue remains that aside from infrastructure spending, a considerable portion of his policies remain somewhat ambiguous. Should Trump emerge committed to protectionist policies and discriminatory immigration screening (ideas touted during his campaign), we would likely see an adverse market reaction as both policies would likely inhibit domestic and global growth.

Trump has also been a vocal critic of US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Janet Yellen, claiming that low interest rates have only been kept in place for as long as they have due to political influences. Should he promote a more hawkish approach to monetary policy in combination with his planned fiscal expansion, then in longer term the US Dollar is likely to receive support as long term US yields climb. However, for the moment this remains uncertain.

Populist contagion

Following Trump’s surprise victory it was reported that Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Front National party, was one of the first to congratulate the Republican candidate on his success. While this has no significance in isolation, it is an anecdotal reminder that Trump’s victory was another win for the anti-establishment that also prevailed during the EU referendum. The wider concern is that momentum mounts for nationalist parties in mainland Europe ahead of key elections scheduled in the next year. Should we see the likes of the Front National, Alternative for Germany and Five Star party gain in the polls in Europe then we may see some weakness surface for the common currency.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

GBP Base

ETFS Long CHF Short GBP (GBCH)
ETFS Short CHF Long GBP (CHGB)
ETFS Long JPY Short GBP (GBJP)
ETFS Short JPY Long GBP (JPGB)

EUR Base

ETFS Long CHF Short EUR (EUCH)
ETFS Short CHF Long EUR (SCHE)
ETFS Long JPY Short EUR (SJPS)
ETFS Short JPY Long EUR (SJPL)

USD Base

ETFS Long CHF Short USD (LCHF)
ETFS Short CHF Long USD (SCHF)
ETFS Long JPY Short USD (LJPY)
ETFS Short JPY Long USD (SJPY)

3x

ETFS 3x Long CHF Short EUR (ECH3)
ETFS 3x Short CHF Long EUR (CHE3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short EUR (EJP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long EUR (JPE3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short GBP (JPP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long GBP (SYP3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short USD (LJP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long USD (SJP3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long CHF Short EUR (5CH3)
ETFS 5x Short CHF Long EUR (5CHE)
ETFS 5x Long JPY Short EUR (EJP5)
ETFS 5x Short JPY Long EUR (JPE5)

Basket

ETFS Bullish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LUSB)
ETFS Bearish USD vs G10 Currency basket Securities (SUSB)

Physical Gold

ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU)
Gold Bullion Securities (GBS)
ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Physical Gold (GBSE)
ETFS GBP Daily Hedged Physical Gold (GBSP)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (“GBS”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (“MSL”) and ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (“HMSL”). FXL, GBS, MSL and HMSL are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks.

FXL

Securities issued by FXL are direct, limited recourse obligations of FXL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley Inc.”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley Inc. index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley Inc. or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley Inc., and Morgan Stanley Inc. bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley Inc. has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley Inc. trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley Inc. to determine whether Morgan Stanley Inc.’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley Inc. without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley Inc..

GBS

Securities issued by GBS are direct, limited recourse obligations of GBS alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by HSBC Bank plc, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. HSBC Bank plc disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

MSL

Securities issued by MSL are direct, limited recourse obligations of MSL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of HSBC Bank plc and JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of HSBC Bank plc and JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

HMSL

Securities issued by HMSL are direct, limited recourse obligations of HMSL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC (”Morgan Stanley LLC”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley LLC index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley LLC or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by HMSL. The securities issued by HMSL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley LLC, and Morgan Stanley LLC bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of HMSL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley LLC has with HMSL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by HMSL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley LLC trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley LLC to determine whether Morgan Stanley LLC’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley LLC without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley LLC.

ETF Securities lanserar första guld-ETCerna på Euroclears plattform Fundsettle

ETF Securities lanserar första guld-ETCerna på Euroclears plattform Fundsettle

ETF Securities lanserar första guld-ETCerna på Euroclears plattform Fundsettle. Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) och ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) finns nu tillgängliga för fondinvesterare via plattformen FundSettle

ETF Securities har sett inflöden på 3 miljarder dollar i guldprodukter sedan årsskiftet

ETF Securities, en av världens ledande oberoende leverantörer av börshandlade produkter (ETPer), offentliggjorde idag noteringen av de allra första börshandlade råvarorna (ETCer) på Euroclears fondhanteringsplattform FundSettle, i samarbete med FundsPlace.

Investerare kommer nu ha tillgång till två fysiskt uppbackade guld-ETPer från ETF Securities via plattformen; Gold Bullion Securities och ETFS Physical Gold.

ETCer är traditionellt noterade på en börs och kan handlas som aktier när som helst under marknadens öppettider. FundSettle gör det möjligt för investerare att köpa och sälja aktier i dessa ETPer precis som i fonder, till substansvärdet (NAV) vid dagens slut, och erbjuder således ytterligare ett sätt att få tillgång till produkterna.

Sedan början av 2016 har ETF Securities sett inflöden på över 3 miljarder dollar i sina guldprodukter[1]  och företaget är den största leverantören av råvaru-ETPer i Europa, med 36% av totala flödena i råvaru-ETPer[2].

Peter Lidblom, Head of Nordics & Netherlands på ETF Securities, säger:

”Ofta beskrivs guld som en trygg hamn, och investerare köper guld som ett skydd mot den extrema ekonomiska och finansiella oron som föranletts av osäker penningpolitik från ECB och FED, samt den politiska oron över Brexit och det amerikanska presidentvalet.  Vi är glada att kunna svara på den ökade efterfrågan genom att göra våra produkter tillgängliga via våra FundsPlace-lösningar. ETF Securities utvecklade världens första guld-ETC år 2003 och vi är hängivna till att säkerställa att våra produkter finns tillgängliga på ett bekvämt och transparent sätt för alla typer av investerare.”

Mohamed M’Rabti, Deputy Global Head på FundsPlace Euroclear säger: ”Vi är mycket stolta över att ha varit en del av detta samarbete med ETF Securities. Samarbetet visar den sanna bredden och flexibiliteten hos FundSettles plattform. Dessa ETCer blir de första som görs tillgängliga på FundSettle och som kan dra nytta av vårt säkra, pålitliga och skalbara tjänsteutbud.”

________________________________________ [1] Källa: ETF Securities, 13 juli 2016 [2] Källa: ETFGI Global ETF and ETP preliminary report, juni 2016

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ETF Securities – Det intelligenta alternativet

ETF Securities Group är en av världens ledande innovatörer inom börshandlade produkter (ETPer) och erbjuder specialistinvesteringslösningar för investerare runt om i världen, vilket gör det möjligt för dem att på ett intelligent sätt bygga upp och diversifiera sina portföljer.

Vi är pionjärer och utvecklade exempelvis världens första börshandlade guldprodukt. Idag erbjuder vi ett av det mest innovativa sortimenten inom specialist-ETPer, vilket omfattar råvaror, valutor, aktier och räntor. Med denna pionjäranda, vår oöverträffade expertis och genom att arbeta med ledande partners, tar vi fram de mest intressanta investeringsmöjligheterna och göra dem tillgängliga för investerare som det intelligent alternativet.

FundsPlace

FundsPlace, operated by Euroclear Bank, serves as a single access point for fund investors to process subscriptions, redemptions, transfers and switches, covering more than 100,000 investment funds worldwide and has links with over 900 fund administrators across 27 domiciles.

Euroclear FundsPlace connects global investment fund participants, providing tailored trade solutions to both international and domestic markets. The FundsPlace solution offers services in both trade and post-trade, with facilities covering order routing, account opening, settlement and asset servicing.

The Euroclear group includes Euroclear Bank – which is rated AA+ by Fitch Ratings and AA by Standard & Poor’s – as well as Euroclear Belgium, Euroclear Finland, Euroclear France, Euroclear Nederland, Euroclear Sweden and Euroclear UK & Ireland. The Euroclear group settled the equivalent of EUR 675 trillion in securities transactions in 2015, representing 191 million domestic and cross-border transactions. By December 2015, the group held EUR 27.5 trillion in assets for clients.

För ytterligare information, vänligen kontakta pressavdelningen på:

T: +44 (0) 20 7448 4330 E: press@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority. The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Metal Securities Limited and Gold Bullion Securities Limited (the ”Issuers”). The Issuers are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

Fortsatt stora inflöden i guld ETP investerare söker säkerhet i volatila marknader

Fortsatt stora inflöden i guld ETP investerare söker säkerhet i volatila marknader

Börshandlade guldprodukter (“ETPer”) är fortsatt populära då investerare söker sig till säkrare tillgångar. Inflödena till ETF Securities guld-ETPer fortsätter för sjunde veckan i rad mot bakgrund av volatila aktiemarknader. Vi ser fortsatt stora inflöden i guld ETP investerare söker säkerhet i volatila marknader

“Enligt våra modeller är guldpriset varken över- eller undervärdet just nu men om det kommer en större sättning i marknaden kan det göra att guldpriset skjuter i höjden. Investerare köper guld som en försäkring mot ett scenario som tidigare verkade osannolikt men nu framstår som mer troligt. Investerare är mest oroliga över geopolitiska spänningar och störningar på finansmarknaderna”, säger James Butterfill, ETF Securities chef för analys och investeringsstrategi.

”Inflödena i guld-ETPer fortsatte att öka under förra veckan, trots att S&P500 stigit något samtidigt som terminerna indikerar minskande volatilitet på aktiemarknaderna. Detta har troligen att göra med att investerarna inte har mycket annat att välja på när det kommer till defensiva positioner. Europeiska Centralbanken verkar inställd på att fortsätta stötta marknaderna med kvantitativa lättnader och negativa räntor, vilket bör lyfta guldpriset. Guld är en reell tillgång som investerarna känner större trygghet i jämfört med till exempel en valuta som de anser håller på att urholkas”, fortsätter James Butterfill.

”Vi har haft inflöden på över 1 miljard amerikanska dollar sedan början på året, vilket motsvarar 55 % av alla kapitalinflöden till europeiska guld-ETPer under 2016. Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) är den mest handlade guld-ETPn i Europa i år[1]”, säger Townsend Lansing, chef för ETF Securities ETCer. ”Guld har alltid varit basen i vårt erbjudande och vi är mycket glada att investerare fortsätter se ETF Securities som en ledare inom området.”

Bakgrundsinformation

ETF Securities – Det intelligenta alternativet

ETF Securities Group är en av världens ledande innovatörer inom börshandlade produkter (ETPer) och erbjuder specialistinvesteringslösningar för investerare runt om i världen, vilket gör det möjligt för dem att på ett intelligent sätt bygga upp och diversifiera sina portföljer.

Vi är pionjärer och utvecklade exempelvis världens första börshandlade guldprodukt. Idag erbjuder vi ett av det mest innovativa sortimenten inom specialist-ETPer, vilket omfattar råvaror, valutor, aktier och räntor. Med denna pionjäranda, vår oöverträffade expertis och genom att arbeta med ledande partners, tar vi fram de mest intressanta investeringsmöjligheterna och göra dem tillgängliga för investerare som det intelligent alternativet.

Om du vill veta mer om ETF Securities gå till: www.etfsecurities.com

För ytterligare information, vänligen kontakta pressavdelningen på:
T: +44 (0) 20 7448 4330
E: press@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The product discussed in this document is issued by Gold Bullion Securities Limited (the “Issuer”). The Issuer is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only. Nothing in this communication amounts to, and nothing in this communication should be construed as, investment advice, an offer for sale or a solicitation or an offer to buy securities and should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and/or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Securities issued by the Issuer are direct, limited recourse obligations of the Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by HSBC Bank plc, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. HSBC Bank plc disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
________________________________________
[1] Källa: Bloomberg, ETF Securities, 19 februari 2016