Etikett: gold ETPs

Nickel and aluminium ETPs saw inflows as trade-war punishment on industrial metals reprieve

ETF Securities Nickel and aluminium ETPs saw inflows as trade-war punishment on industrial metals reprieveNickel and aluminium ETPs saw inflows as trade-war punishment on industrial metals reprieve

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Nickel and aluminium ETPs saw inflows as trade-war punishment on industrial metals reprieve

Highlight

  • Long nickel and aluminium ETPs saw the highest inflows since February 2018 as prices begin to recover.
  • Gold ETPs receive first inflows in six weeks
  • Turkish woes pressure the Euro

Long nickel and aluminium ETPs saw the highest inflows since February 2018 as prices begin to recover. Nickel prices rallied 2.5% while aluminium rallied 4.2% last week as the market appears to be shifting focus to the supply disruptions that US protectionism is likely to cause. Long nickel ETPs received US$31.2mn while long aluminium ETPs received US$6.5mn. As we pointed out in Trade wars: price optimism ahead for metals?, the market appears to be wavering between protectionism being positive and protectionism being negative for prices. In the first bout of tariff announcements in February 2018, prices trended down. Then between April and June prices rallied as the supply disruptions came into focus. As the Trump administration rattled its protectionist sabres more intensely, the market had been concerned about the damage to global growth, with prices declining for most of June and July. The reopening of several mines in the Philippines in June (following their closure in February 2017 for environmental violations) added further headwinds to the metals’ performance. But as of last week the market shifted focus back to supply disruptions despite the intensity of Trump’s threats of trade wars revving up a gear. Copper only managed to gain 0.1% as the strike at Escondida (the world’s largest copper mine) was averted at the last minute as the Chilean government began to act as a mediator between the Union and BHP Billiton. However, if an agreement on the wage contract is not agreed by the 14th August 2018, a strike could be back on the cards.

Long gold ETPs received the first inflow in six weeks, amounting to US$26mn. Although gold prices remained lacklustre, some investors are now coming to believe that the price decline has been overdone. We certainly hold that view. Although the US Dollar is strengthening, US Treasury yields have not risen as much as we had expected back in June and US inflation is running at a 6-year high. Overly-subdued investor sentiment for the metal (both in futures and ETP markets) accounts for the poor price performance. If that is now turning a corner, we could see gold prices play catch-up. Our estimated base case is for gold to reach US$1307 by June 2019, up 8% from today’s levels (see Gold outlook). Economic disarray in Turkey, with a sharp Lira depreciation (which had knock-on contagion to the Euro last week), could send investors looking for haven assets. Gold has traditionally played the role of a safe haven asset in many investors portfolios.

Second week of short USD, long EUR ETP inflows likely to lead to disappointment. Last week there were US$5.9mn inflows into Short USD, long EUR ETPs. The prior week there were US$5.6mn of inflows. In the past week the Euro depreciated close to 2% against the US Dollar as investors feared contagion into the European banking system from exposure to Turkish loans.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Agricultural ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

Agricultural ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Agricultural ETPs took the lion’s share of flows

Highlight

  • Agricultural ETPs garner the highest inflows in 9 years last week
  • Gold ETPs extend outflows for the fifth week in a row
  • Broad commodity basket ETPs face redemptions for the third week in a row

Agricultural ETPs garner the highest inflows since October 2009. Since the start of the year, agricultural commodities led by wheat, corn, cotton and soybeans have been spearheading gains across the commodity complex owing to supportive fundamentals helped by unexpected extreme weather conditions. In the case of wheat, severe hot and dry weather conditions that the main growing regions have experienced have driven concerns about lower global wheat production. According to the latest monthly July report released by the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), international 2018/19 wheat supplies are forecasted to fall 9.3mn tons owing to lower production, which would mark the smallest supply in 3 years.

Last week, wheat prices also caught a tailwind subsequent to news that the Ukrainian Ministry was contemplating limiting the amount of milling wheat the country exports. In the case of corn, a positive demand story has been supporting prices high. After 5 years of surpluses, the corn market is expected to be in a deficit as consumption outpaces supply, driving corn stocks to a six-year low of 152 million tons, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Meanwhile, the soybean market appears to be caught in the crossfires of the trade spat between the US and China. Despite being caught in this trade spat, concerns about drier conditions and diminishing soil moisture levels at an important time for bean development continue to support the soybean market higher. The cotton market also seems to be profiting from the USDA’s recent estimates that revised global supply downward and raised consumption estimates higher. Despite the ongoing trade frictions, as the fundamental outlook for most agricultural commodities improves, investors appear to be taking exposure via diversified agricultural commodity baskets.

Gold ETPs extend outflows for the fifth week in a row. Gold prices continued to face a number of headwinds last week, amidst the stronger US Dollar, the more optimistic outlook on the US economy at the Federal Reserve meeting and the positive non-farm payroll report in the US. Speculative positioning on gold futures reached a net short exposure of 41,987 contracts, as of 31 July 2018, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), an oversold territory in our opinion and we expect a turnaround in gold prices to follow.

Broad commodity basket ETPs face redemptions for the third week in a row as the trade spat intensifies. The retaliatory tariff cycle between the US and China showed no signs of abating last week. Beijing confirmed it had prepared a list of US$60Bn worth of US products on which it would impose tariffs if the Trump administration did not dial back on its threat to hike tariffs on US$200Bn of Chinese products. Commodities prices continued to get whipsawed as sentiment towards the complex weakened.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Gold ETPs took the lion’s share of outflows

Gold ETPs took the lion’s share of outflows

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Gold ETPs took the lion’s share of outflows

Highlight

  • Gold can’t seem to find a floor
  • Strong copper fundamentals appear to defy trade war threats
  • Falling nickel prices continue to attract bargain hunters

Gold can’t seem to find a floor. Gold ETP outflows surged last week by US$119.7mn, marking the third consecutive week of outflows as gold prices shed 0.81% last week, declining to US$1231.1. We believe the testimony of Fed Chair Powell before the US Senate had a strong role to play in gold’s weak price performance last week. As his optimistic outlook on the US economy cemented the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate hike trajectory for the rest of 2018 supporting the US dollar higher. Since the start 2018, the stronger US dollar (up 3.17%) amidst the rising rate environment in the US, has underpinned the weakness of gold prices (down 6.62%). Last week, Larry Kudlow the US president’s economic adviser, blamed the Chinese President Xi Jinping for stalling of trade dispute talks between the two nations. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs retaliated aggressively, by announcing that although it did not want a trade war, it was not afraid of one either. In the absence of any productive negotiation, the international trade wars seem to be intensifying and if this trend were to continue we expect inflation to accelerate at the cost of decelerating economic activity, which should favour gold.

According to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), net speculative positioning on gold futures are currently 1x standard deviation (as on 13 July 2018) below their 5-year average, highlighting the extent of the negative sentiment towards the yellow metal. We expect, gold prices to stage a recovery over the second half of this year.

Strong copper fundamentals appear to defy trade war threats as copper ETP inflows worth US$26.5mn rose to their highest level in 14 weeks. Last week, Chinese economic growth slowed fractionally to 6.7% year-on-year compared to 6.8% last year.

However monthly data reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) was mixed with industrial production and investment slowing but retail sales and house price growth higher. As a historically well-regarded barometer of world economic health, copper prices have been caught in the cross hairs of trade wars and slowing momentum from Chinese growth evident from the price slide over the past 6 consecutive weeks to US$6122.5 (as on 20 July 2018). However optimism over the red metals’ strong fundamentals helped overcome the negative sentiment emanating from the trade wars as inflows into copper ETPs rose over the past two weeks.

Failing collective wage negotiations at BHP’s Escondida mine, the world’s largest copper mine, highlight the risks to copper’s current supply levels. Discussions are set to continue as the current collective agreement expires at the end of the month. As both sides have stated their desire to reach an agreement, a strike is a less likely however prices are likely to remain on tender hooks until we reach an agreement.

Nickel ETP inflows garner momentum for the fourth week in a row as bargain hunters chase falling prices. Nickel prices suffered a sharp decline -3.18% last week with prices nearing a 3-month low on the back of news that the Chinese government is considering reducing incentives for buying electric cars from next year.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Precious metal ETP outflows surge as sentiment sours

Precious metal ETP outflows surge as sentiment sours

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Precious metal ETP outflows surge as sentiment sours

Highlights

  • Precious metal weekly outflows surge amidst a stronger US dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
  • WTI’s discount to Brent widens and outflows from crude oil ETPs rise for the sixth week in a row.
  • Yen ETPs remain well bid, despite the soft economic patch reported in Q1.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

As WTI’s discount to Brent crude oil prices deepens, outflows worth US$5.4mn continue for the sixth week in a row. Brent prices surged to US$80 per barrel for the first time since November 2014; likely owing to the ongoing concerns of supply from Venezuela and Iran. The unsurprising overnight victory of President Nicolas Maduro at the Venezuelan election is likely to spark unrest within the nation and worsen the decline in Venezuelan oil production. Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA), showed signs of further tightening on the oil market, as oil stocks in OECD countries decreased in March to their lowest level in three years and dipped below the five-year average for the first time since 2014. The crude oil inventory reduction was aided by record high crude oil exports, as the deep discount of the WTI price with Brent is making US crude oil more attractive to the international buyers. In contrast to the inventory build reported by the API, the US department of Energy reported a 1.4 million barrel fall in US crude oil stocks. Furthermore, US oil rig count held steady at 844 last week after rising for six weeks in a row.

Gold ETPs faced weekly redemptions worth US$82.3mn, the highest level in 12 weeks. Gold prices faced significant pressure as the US dollar strengthened and 10-year US treasury yields crossed 3.112% last week. The yield differential of the 10-year US Treasuries versus the equivalent German government bonds of the same maturity widened to 250 basis point, marking its widest level in over 30 years. This points to further strengthening of the US dollar against the euro and more weakness ahead for gold prices as it fails to yield any interest, making it appear unattractive in the current rising rate environment. Meanwhile, gold’s historical role as a safe haven, may allow significant upside potential from the ongoing geopolitical risks emanating from protests in Gaza, uncertainty over the Iranian Nuclear agreement, US-China trade wars, the Korean conflict and progress from the coalition of populist Eurosceptic parties in Italy.

Gold prices declined for a time to their lowest level since the start of the year, falling below the psychologically important $1300 mark, such low levels should also encourage physical buying. Silver prices recouped some if its losses over the latter half of last week resulting in the gold/silver ratio declining to 78.5. Investors took profits as we saw weekly outflows from Silver ETPs surge to US$98.4mn their highest level since September 2017. Precious metal basket ETPs also saw US$12.3mn worth of 0utflows as sentiment toward the precious metals sector deteriorated.

Long Yen ETPs versus the Euro attracted the highest inflows in 10 weeks, last week. Following eight consecutive quarters of growth, the Japanese economy contracted in the first quarter as GDP contracted -0.6% more than consensus estimates owing to sluggish household consumption and capital spending. However strong corporate profitability, an upbeat global growth outlook and signs that wage pressures are starting to build provide evidence that the Japanese investment case still remains intact.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Safe havens gain traction as trade war escalates

Safe havens gain traction as trade war escalates

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Safe havens gain traction as trade war escalates

Highlights

  • Safe haven demand drives US$23.9mn into long gold ETPs and US$28.1mn into long silver ETPs.
  • Geopolitical risk led to US$21mn outflows from industrial metals basket.
  • Long crude oil ETP inflows reach a seven-week high of US$20.6mn.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Trade wars escalate. When we first reported on the US tariffs, the Chinese retaliation was very limited, but we noted that it did not preclude further action. Last week we saw China announce a 25% tariff on 106 US goods targeting roughly US$50bn of imports (based on 2017 trade), matching the US’s target of US$50bn of Chinese imports into US. The tit-for-tat trade war has started. US President Trump then threatened a further set of tariffs on US$100bn of Chinese imports. This does not bode well for cyclical assets. Trade wars rarely end up with anyone as a winner. White House’s National Economic Council Director, Larry Kudlow’s, efforts to assuage markets worked temporarily, but lacked credibility after Trump made his recent treats. China said it will counter US protectionism “to the end and at any cost” after Trump’s threats, leaving little room to diffuse the impasse.

Safe haven demand drove US$23.9mn into long gold ETPs, US$28.1mn into long silver ETPs and US$6.9mn into broad precious metal basket ETPs. Inflows into gold have been over US$20mn for three weeks running as safe havens appear to be back in demand. In the past ten weeks there has only been one week of outflows from silver (a minor $2.6mn). In fact over the past (trailing) month, we have seen the highest inflows into silver since June 2017. Inflows into silver ETPs come as a sharp contrast to the investor sentiment in the silver futures market where net positioning is at its most negative ever. The escalation of a trade war adds to the political uncertainty following the hiring a Iran/North Korea policy hawk two weeks ago. With China being such an important broker of diplomacy between in the US and North Korea, antagonising the country appears risky a month before a potential meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. While gold prices have not appreciated meaningfully yet, the rising geopolitical risks could send its price substantially higher. Investors seem to be positioning in safe havens as a hedge against adverse outcomes. Friday’s worse-than-expected labour market report provided a tail-wind for gold as it reduces the need for the Federal Reserve to be hawkish.

Geopolitical risk led to US$21mn outflows from industrial metals baskets. Outflows from industrial metals reached an eight-week high. Cyclicals are likely to perform badly if global economic growth takes a hit from rising protectionism.

Long crude oil ETP inflows reach a seven-week high of US$20.6mn. As crude oil prices fell 3.1% last week, investors bought long crude ETPs and took profits on their short oil ETP positions (US$3.3mn). While investors were bargain-hunting, we think that better entry points could open up. At current prices, we expect US production of oil to continue to rise. In its May meeting we expect OPEC to begin discussing how to taper off its current production curbs in 2019. The treat of a trade war should also weigh on oil prices if global demand is dented. Demand expectations from International Energy Agency already look too optimistic. It is a hard to imagine demand continuing to grow at the pace we saw last year at higher prices.

 

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.