Råoljan backade ytterligare i veckan eftersom råvaruhandlarna skyr allt med antydan till risk. I veckan såg vi hur oljepriset föll till 55 USD per fat, den lägsta nivån på ett år. Oljepriset fortsätter att backa bland annat på oro över ett ökat globalt oljeutbud, tillsammans med en långsammare efterfrågan på grund av en svagare global ekonomi
”Samma visa som vanligt, ett för högt utbud, inte tillräckligt med efterfrågan” sade Matt Stanley, en bränslemäklare på StarFuels i Dubai, till CNBC.
Risk-off sentiment
Oljehandlare kan också följa risk-off-känslan på den bredare marknaden eftersom aktiemarknaden fortsatte att försämras. ”Vi följer aktiemarknaden” säger Peter Cardillo, chefmarknadsekonom på Spartan Capital till Wall Street Journal. ”Marknaden hade hittat ett golv under de senaste par dagarna, men idag fortsätter aktiemarknaderna att röra sig mot björnmarknadsområdet.”
Oljepriset har tidigare träffat fleråriga höjningar i mitten av 2018 efter att president Donald Trump drog sig tillbaka från Irans kärnvapenavtal. Detta återställde sanktionerna mot Mellanösternslandets råoljeexport. Iransoljetransporter har sedan minskat med drygt en tredjedel och analytikerna förväntar sig att mer än en miljon fat per dag skulle stoppas från att nå marknaden före första kvartalet 2019.
”Vi går in i en oöverträffad period av osäkerhet på oljemarknaderna, säger International Energy Agencys verkställande direktör Fatih Birol, vid en konferens i Norge, enligt Business Insider. IEA har redan varnat för att Trumps Irans sanktioner skulle kunna göra det möjligt att upprätthålla det globala utbudet ”mycket utmanande”.
Några analytiker hävdar emellertid att energihandlare följde marknadsmomentet så många dumpade råoljeterminer till förmån för naturgasterminer, som har stigit 40 procent under den senaste månaden på de kallare än väntade väderutsikterna.
Gold ETPs recorded second largest weekly outflows in 2016 as prices retreat near its 2 months low. In line with the hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes report released on the 18th of May, Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have also been hinted in their speech on a higher probability for the Fed to hike rates again in June amidst concerns over the UK Brexit. However, the odds, derived from reading of the Fed Fund Futures, remain low, at 30%, highlighting that the uncertainty over the Fed next month move will likely continue to weigh on the metal price until then. The US dollar, on the other hand, rose 2.7% over the past month adding to the current downward pressure on commodities. In our model, we estimate the fair value of gold at US$1,250/oz. for year end 2016, assuming an inflation of 2% in the US and speculative net positioning falls back to 75,000. We, therefore, believe that the current price level should be seen as a potential buying opportunity for investors.
Oil ETPs recorded outflows for the seventh consecutive week as prices continue to recover. Oil prices rose 1.6% last week, trading above the US$50/bbl. for the first time since November 2015. As a result, oil ETPs recorded outflows for the seventh consecutive week, mainly out of WTI crude ETPs. While the US oil benchmark currently trades slightly below its European peers, investors fear that US shale oil production may return faster than expected, capping the potential gain on the WTI crude price while Brent crude should continue to benefit from depleting oil production in the North Sea. US crude stockpiles fell more than expected in the latest US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report as US oil production continued to decline at the same time, lending support to oil prices. We believe next week’s OPEC meeting will not have any meaningful impact on the global oil market. Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US EIA raised their global demand growth forecast for 2016 to 1.4 million barrels per day on higher demand from China and India.
Industrial metals ETPs have been enjoying net inflows of US$38mn in 2016. While flows remain highly volatile from one week to another, the momentum is building up as industrial metals ETPs were the only commodity sector posting positive flows last week. Investor interest has traditionally been focussed on copper and aluminium ETPs. We however note that recent flows trends suggest a more diversified exposure across the sector with nickel ETPs actually recording positive flows over the past year. Increasing signs that China economy is stabilising combined with continued capex cuts from miners should eventually support industrial metals prices.
Key events to watch this week. A number of manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs are due over the course of the week along with retail sales and confidence data. While the European Central Bank will decide on its interest rate policy on Thursday, investors will also be waiting for labour market data for May from key countries, above all the US non-farm payroll on Friday.
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• Commodities: Oil market to rebalance in 2020 at US$80/bbl. according to IEA.
• Equities: Chinese stocks benefit from strong ’Singles Day’ sales.
• Currencies: USD and GBP strengthen as employment market improves.
• Upcoming webinar: Global commodities, have we reached the floor in prices? Register here to attend.
• Oversupplied markets and weak industrial production in China continue to weigh on commodity prices
• While stocks fell across the developed market, strong ‘Singles Day’ sales lent support to China A
• The US dollar continued to find support from previous week’s payroll numbers, while the Euro came under pressure as ECB hinted at expansion of QE next month
Commodities
Oil market to rebalance in 2020 at US$80/bbl. according to IEA. In the World Energy Outlook 2015 published on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects oil market to remain subdued for the next five years. While IEA forecasts annual demand growth at 900,000 barrels per day until 2020, further production and spending cut are needed to reduce the surplus on the oil market. US oil inventories reported last week are now close to its all-time high while Saudi Arabia is offering oil at a substantial discount to Brent to the European market, sending oil prices near their respective historical lows. A considerable sell-off in the global ETF space continues to weigh on platinum and palladium prices. Meanwhile, sugar and cocoa both rose 1.4% on the upward revision of the 2015/2016 deficit by the International Sugar Organization and on the acquisition of Nyonkopa, the Ghanaian cocoa purchaser, by the Swiss based Callebaut chocolate maker announced last Monday.
Equities
Chinese stocks benefit from strong ‘Singles Day’ sales. Developed market stocks fell over the past week. Buoyant jobs data in the US released the previous Friday failed to support the S&P 500, which dropped 2.5%, as US retail sales disappointed. China import, industrial production and loan growth data came below expectations and previous months’ numbers. However, MSCI China A index gained 3.1% last week responding to the better-than-expected October Chinese retail sales data and the strong ‘Singles Day’ sales last Wednesday, highlighting the transition in China’s engine of growth toward services. While industrial production in Europe has been growing by 1.7% yoy in September, German industrial production fell for the third consecutive month and UK’s economic recovery remained unbalanced pushing the DAX 30 and FTSE 100 down 1% and 2.8% respectively. The soft data is placing pressure on the European Central Bank for imminent policy easing.
Currencies
USD and GBP strengthen as employment market improves. Following strong US job indicators the previous Friday, the US dollar (USD) continues to strengthen although the odds for a rate hike in December reduced from 68% to 64% over the past week. In contrast to the US, strong employment data in Australia failed to support the Australian dollar which barely moved over the same period. While the British pound plunged on the day following the Bank of England decision to keep rate unchanged, the currency bounced back on a better-than-expected unemployment rate, ending last week up 1.2%. In the meantime, the European Central Bank (ECB) hinted that the asset purchase programme could ramp up to €1.1bn as soon as next month weighing further on the Euro while the Japanese Yen fell 0.7% despite expectations that the bank of Japan may put an end to its easing program in the near term.
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En ökad efterfrågan på olja räcker inte för att minska överskottet. Även om den globala oljeförbrukningen ökar så räcker inte en ökad efterfrågan på för att minska överskottet av olja. Detta kan leda till att vi ser ett tak på hur högt olja, aktier i oljesektorn och självklart också de börshandlade fonder som replikerar utvecklingen av denna råvara kan gå. Efter en god utveckling till och med slutet av april så har vi nu sett hur oljemarknaden har fastnat i ett sidledes handelsmönster. Båda de två största ETFer som replikerar priset på olja, United States Oil Fund (NYSEArca: USO) respektive United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSEArca: BNO) har haft kursuppgångar på cirka en procent under den senaste månaden.
USO replikerar kursutvecklingen på West Texas Intermediate
USO replikerar kursutvecklingen på West Texas Intermediate råoljeterminer medan BNO följer priset på Brentolja. Priset på WTI har stigit med cirka 2,2 procent under den senaste månade och handlas nu till cirka 60 USD per fat, medan priset på Brent har stigit med mer modesta 0,3 procent och handlas kring 65 USD per fat. Se också grafen på oljepriset nedan som uppdateras löpande.
Enligt International Energy Agency, IEA, har ett lägre oljepris och tillväxt i ekonomier världen över bidragit till en ökad oljeförbrukning som förväntas leda till en ökad efterfrågan på 1,4 miljoner fat per dag under 2015 Den tidigare prognosen låg på en ökning med 300 000 fat per dag. IEA räknar med att omsättningen kommer att öka till 94 miljoner fat per dag under 2015. Under det första kvartalet 2015 ökade till exempel fordonstransporterna i USA med 3,9 procent något som i sin tur ökade efterfrågan på bensin i Nordamerika med 4,2 procent. IEA tror dessutom att ett stigande konsumentförtroende leder till att Kina kommer att öka sin efterfrågan på olja under resten av året.
IEA varnar emellertid för att tillförseln av olja från OPEC under maj uppgick till 31,3 miljoner fat per dag, den högsta nivån sedan augusti 2012. Under förra veckans OPEC-möte kom deltagarna överens om att bibehålla dagens produktionsnivåer på över 30 miljoner fat olja per dygn. Historiskt sett har OPEC producerat mer än vad som har överenskommits varför det snarare är sannolikt att anta att produktionen kommer att ligga på cirka 31 miljoner fat per dygn.
Priset på BrentCrude, Brentoljan kan stå inför ett rally. I dag handlas denna råolja till cirka 62 USD per fat, men samtidigt har IEA varnat för ett utbudsrisker i Mellanöstern. Det börjar emellertid höjas röster för att den senaste tidens prisökningar på råoljan är uppblåsta, och skillnaderna i pris mellan Brent och WTI överstiger nu 10 USD per fat, den högsta nivån sedan sommaren 2014. Betänk emellertid att WTI, West Texas, inte får exporteras utanför USAs gränser om den inte är bearbetad.
ISIS framväxt kan komma att innebära en stor utmaning för de utbyggnader av Mellanösterns oljeproduktion som krävs för att förhindra en oljebrist under kommande årtionden säger IEA: s toppekonom, Fatih Birol.
Oljepriset kan stiga ytterligare när spekulanterna köper
Terminspriset på Brent Crude, det globala referenskontraktet för råolja har endast stigit marginellt på detta, men den öppna balansen har däremot blivit betydligt högre och befinner sig just nu på den högsta nivån sedan oljepriset började falla i juli 2014.
Den andra sidan av ekvationen Brent/BNO är, i alla fall på kort sikt, att priset på Brent Crude, den senaste tiden har drivits av oljehandlarnas agerande. Många av dessa har kvar sina korta positioner, det vill säga blankningar, istället ta nya bet på långsidan, det vill säga de är fortfarande nettokorta. Om blankarna blivit självbelåtna efter den senaste tiden blankningar räcker det med en plötslig förändring på utbudssidan för att skapa en ny återhämtning, vilket i detta fall skulle kunna leda till en så kallad ”short squeeze”. Under året har nästan 53 MUSD flödat in i BNO. Om vi får se hur priset på Brent Crude stiger kan det också hjälpa kurserna för andra börshandlade fonder som nu handlas i nedåtgående trender.
Till exempel Market Vectors Russia ETF (NYSEArca: RSX), den största ryska ETFen, var tillsammans med BNO en av 2014 s sämsta börshandlade fonder, men med årets Brent rally, har RSX ökade med 23,4 procent. Det är tillräckligt för att göra RSX den bästa icke-hävstångs ETFerna under 2015. Den som är positiv till Ryssland och RSX bör hålla ett öga på BNO och terminspriset på Brent Crude då den ryska oljeproduktionen prissätts i termer av Brent Crude. Rysslandär den största icke-OPEC producenten i världen och som sådan är Moskva mer beroende av oljeproduktionen i procent av de offentliga intäkterna än någon annan icke-OPEC nation.
