Industrial metal basket ETP flows benefited the most as trade wars intensify
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Industrial metal basket ETP flows benefited the most as trade wars intensify
Highlight
Industrial metal basket ETP took the lion’s share of inflows surging the most since December 2017
Gold ETPs suffered outflows last week after hawkish comments by the Federal Reserve
Bargain hunters appear to drive inflows into crude oil ETPs ahead of the OPEC meeting on June 22
Industrial metal basket ETPs took the lion’s share of inflows, worth US$52.8mn extending last week’s trend of positive inflows. Caught in the cross fire of geopolitical trade wars, industrial metals as a group declined by 3.77% last week. Industrial metal prices also faced headwinds from weak Chinese economic data. Fixed asset investments grew by only 6.1% while industrial production grew by 6.8% in May according to National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Bargain hunters appeared to take advantage of the price weakness as industrial metal basket ETP flows surged the most since December 2017.
In retaliation to the US tariffs, China’s Finance Ministry has imposed an additional 25% tariff effective on July 6 on a list of 545 product categories , covering nearly US$34bn in exports from the US. The list includes automobiles and agricultural products that might have an effect on manufacturers. Most metal markets continue to remain in deficit and we expect the current trade tariff’s to continue to generate considerable uncertainty within the supply chain.
Gold ETP outflows surged by US$41.4mn, reversing the prior two week’s trend of inflows after hawkish comments by the Federal Reserve . The stronger US dollar coupled with a more hawkish Federal Reserve, underpinned the weakness in gold prices that were declined 1.81% last week. Geopolitical risks that were previously supporting gold prices faded as the divergent interest rate policy projections at the key central bank meetings last week took centre stage. While the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered another quarter point rate hike in the Federal Funds rate, this was largely priced in by markets. However the Fed’s forward guidance on its interest rate trajectory took the markets by surprise.
The Fed’s dot plot moved higher marginally in favour of two additional rate hikes this year, so four in total. Interestingly, it also anticipated a further three rate hikes of 25Bps in 2019 as the US economic outlook remains positive. Gold, that does not yield any interest came under significant pressure from the Fed’s more subdued outlook on inflation. The spread between the US 2 and 10-year yields declined to 38Bps its lowest level since 2007 reflecting the markets conviction in near term growth projections versus the future. In sharp contrast a day later, the European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi provided a more dovish forward guidance with no change in interest rates until the summer of 2019. The ECB remains far from normalizing policy, this lent further buoyancy to the US dollar as the Euro declined sharply adding further pressure on gold prices.
Crude oil ETPs received US$9mn of inflows last week reversing the trend of outflows witnessed over the last nine consecutive weeks. Oil prices are being dominated by rumours surrounding production cuts to be announced at the OPEC meeting in Vienna next week on June 22. Saudi Arabia is expected to raise production gradually however Venezuela and Iraq are not in favour of raising production according to sources close of OPEC.
European equity ETPs witnessed outflows worth US$9mn for the third week in a row. Dovish signals from the ECB helped European equities recover 1.04% last week. Profit taking appears to have driven outflows from European equity ETPs. The Euro slipped 1.35% versus the US dollar last week, helping European equities recover, as nearly 50% of revenues on European indices are generated internationally.
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The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
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Industrial metal ETPs saw their first inflows in four weeks.
As industrial metal positioning started to look stretched in August, we saw outflows begin and that continued as prices fell. However, last week as prices of most metals started to show signs of reaching a trough, inflows resumed. Speculative positioning in the futures market have pared back and volumes of trading in Shanghai have fallen indicating momentum trades are being shaken out. We saw US$5.0mn into long copper and US$4.4 into long nickel ETPs. Nickel is likely to benefit from growing demand for battery technology. Last week China announced that 10% of vehicles that automakers produce in 2019 must be low or zero emission, rising to 12% in 2020. With a higher loading of nickel expected in future batteries, the metal stands to benefit from regulatory driven changes in demand.
Robotic ETPs saw highest inflows since March 2017.
US$29.1mn of inflows marked the highest since March. Investors are impressed with a 35% return over the past year. Although technology stocks pared back gains in September, robotic stocks bucked the trend, posting over 4% gain.
Crude oil ETP outflows reached a 7-week high.
Oil prices received a boost earlier in the week as the autonomous Kurdish region in Iraq went to vote for independence. Investors took profits, withdrawing US$53.1mn from long crude oil ETPs. There is a risk that this oil-rich region, which produces more than ½ million barrels per day (mb/d) of Iraq’s 4½ (mb/d) output could be shut off from international markets as the Iraqi government bans the sale of oil from the region. This threat was largely ignored until the Turkish government claimed it will shut off the pipeline that carries the crude. Brent reached a 2-year high on Monday, rising almost 4% on the day. However the likelihood of Turkey following through is slim, given that it depends heavily on this source of oil and it is difficult to find alternatives at such short notice. Indeed the position of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is that they want the vote to open dialogue with the Iraqi government about independence rather than a declaration of independence itself. Despite the heated rhetoric and military drills, it is very likely that production will remain uninterrupted.
US$13.4mn of gold ETP outflows follow two weeks of inflows.
It looks like investors’ mind-sets are back on monetary policy after sabre-rattling between US and North Korea temporarily shifted their attention towards geopolitics. US Federal Reserve Chair Yellen emphasised in her speech last week that there are risks in moving too slowly in tightening. US 10-yr Treasures rose to 2.31% from 2.25% a week earlier, while the US dollar index gained 0.8%. Gold fell from US$1310/oz on Tuesday to US$1287.91/oz on Friday. Investors sold as gold prices fell.
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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
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Gold inflows rise to a three week high as investors seek a haven asset amid continued sabre-rattling. Although gold prices erased most of its past months gains, inflows into gold ETPs rose to US$39.3mn. The US Federal Reserve announced the start of its quantitative tightening programme – allowing US$6bn of Treasuries and US$4bn of mortgage-backed-securities to run off its balance sheet in October. The Fed also indicated that it will see-through the relatively tame current inflation readings and potential temporary hurricane related economic weakness and focus on how the tightness in the labour market will increase inflationary pressures. The odds for a December rate hike have risen substantially (from 35% a month ago to 70% currently according to Fed Fund futures). Gold fell 1.7% as US Treasury 10-yr yield rose to 2.27% from 2.03%. However, ETP investors used the price weakness last week to increase their holding of ETPs as geopolitical risks do not seem to be fading. Following President Trump’s threat to “totally destroy” North Korea, Kim Jong Un said he would pay dearly for his speech and reciprocated with a threat to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific ocean. Gold rose once 0.5% on Friday as markets switched their attention back to geopolitics.
Oil ETP outflows continue as investors take profit from the rally. Oil prices have rallied close to 5% over the past fortnight as markets have become more optimistic about demand recovering and OPEC countries sticking to their pact to curb supplies. Investors sold US$21.7mn of oil ETPs as they took profit. Iraq has publically supported an extension of the current quota, lifting markets expectations about the outcomes from Friday’s OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). However, Iraq has not complied with the current quota, leaving it a poor spokesperson for deal-extension. Friday’s meeting was unlikely to yield any real policy moves as it was not designed for making new decisions. The next major policy-deciding OPEC meeting will take place in November. Without an extension to the deal, global oil markets are likely to return to a surplus.
Industrial metal ETPs saw third consecutive week of outflows. As prices of industrial metals continued to decline, investors pared back their positions. However, outflows last week of US$9.8mn were relatively small compared to US117mn and US$119mn in the prior weeks. We believe that metal prices are making a short-term pull-back as momentum trades are shaken out of the market after a strong rally that commenced in June. Investors are likely to gain a better entry point after this pull-back. With widening supply deficits and continued strength in demand the fundamentals for industrial metals remain firm.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Director, Commodity Research at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
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Gold ETPs have received inflows for five consecutive weeks, totalling US$644mn over the period. Investors perceived last week’s release of the minutes from the US Federal Reserve as relatively dovish, a positive for the gold price. However, Fed vice chair Fischer dampened sentiment somewhat, after indicating that the Fed is close to its mandated goals. As long as uncertainty remains regarding the path of US monetary policy, gold is likely to remain an investor favourite. Sentiment remains buoyant – despite moderating in recent weeks, CFTC futures data showed that net gold positions are hovering close to an all-time-high. Elsewhere in the sector, investors have cut platinum positions at the fastest rate in 17 months – since march 2015, despite strong gains in recent weeks.
Crude oil ETPs broke a 7-week stretch of inflows as profit-taking drove US$82mn of outflows. Oil prices are back in bull market territory, having rallied by over 20% since the recent lows of near US$40/bbl. Brent has breached the US$50/bbl level after reports of a possible OPEC output agreement and reduced Nigerian production resulting from extremist attacks on its pipelines. We expect to see continued profit taking as prices move closer to the top of the recent US$40-55/bbl range. The Energy Information Administration reported that US commercial crude oil stockpiles experienced a drawdown for the first time in a month last week, helping lift WTI crude.
Industrial metal ETPs received inflows in six of the past seven weeks. Inflows over the week totalled US$5.6mn, led by the strongest inflows since September 2015 into broad basket ETPs, which received US$7.7mn. Data from the World Bureau of Metals Statistics showed that all industrial metals were in deficit in the first half of 2016. As a result, investors appear to be looking for diversified exposures rather than ‘picking winners’ in the sector.
Investors take Long USD exposures ahead of Jackson hole, with inflows the highest in three weeks. With the FOMC seemingly split on the need to raise rates at the September Fed meeting, this week’s gathering of central banker at Jackson hole looms large for investors. Markets appear rather complacent, pricing in just a 20% chance of a hike. Although Fed Chair Yellen will likely highlight the need for policy tightening to be gradual, any hawkish rhetoric is likely to be met with a strong USD bid. Long USD ETPs received US$15.5mn, with the majority of positions against the Euro. Meanwhile, Long Euro ETPs experienced withdrawals of US$6.1mn, the largest in five weeks.
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This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.
Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.
Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.
The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.
ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
Risk Warnings
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
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Commodity ETP Weekly- All Eyes on the Federal Reserve
Highlights
• Oil ETPs inflows resume. On the 14th September we will be hosting a webinar to discuss where next for the oil price – find out more
• Agriculture ETPs see inflows ahead of WASDE report.
• Industrial metal price bounce drives profit-taking.
The US Federal Open Market Committee will convene this week to discuss raising interest rates. We don’t believe they will pull the trigger on this occasion, given the uncertainty surrounding the deceleration of China and Europe and elevated financial market volatility. The last time the central bank increased rates was in 2006 and will not take this decision lightly. A policy reversal will be costly for the Fed’s reputation and we think the central bank will err on the side of caution while it assess whether these risks are likely to drive price expectations lower or hurt labour market prospects. A surprise rate rise could be gold price negative.
Oil ETPs inflows resume. After a week’s break, oil ETPs continued to see inflows with US$12.5mn of creations. Falling prices drove bargain hunters into mainly WTI ETPs. A surprisingly high inventory build last week pushed WTI prices lower. However, the IEA in its latest oil market report expressed its view that crude supply from non- OPEC countries will decline by the most in two decades. The decline of 0.5mn barrels per day will mainly come from Russia, North Sea and USA. Current low prices have boosted demand and therefore the “call” on OPEC will rise. With OPEC spare capacity running lower, the potential for a shock to translate into substantially higher prices remains elevated.
Agriculture ETPs see inflows ahead of WASDE report. With El Niño conditions intensifying to the worst level since 1997 and the possibility of it becoming the most extreme on record, interest in agricultural ETPs has resumed. Wheat and corn ETPs saw inflows of US$4.3mn and US$1.1mn respectively ahead of the WASDE report. The US winter wheat harvest is now complete and the USDA is finalising its estimate of the crop. The Australian wheat season is underway and could be impacted by the El Niño weather pattern, which could reverse some of the ample rain the country has seen recently. US corn is currently in a stage of growth that is vulnerable to weather changes. On the 15th September CONAB will release its Brazilian coffee harvest estimate. This report will end months of speculation about the size of the crop. There has been heightened uncertainty because of the highly volatile weather the country has experienced this season. While a drought early in the season was thought to have led to a poor a crop, late rains and then warmth bought by the El Niño suppressed frost damage, likely driving production higher than initially thought. We are likely to see a relatively sizeable crop albeit of lower quality. Coffee ETPs saw US$2.5mn of inflows.
Industrial metal price bounce drives profit-taking. Nickel, copper and palladium (an industrially-inclined precious metal) rose 4.4%, 2.9% and 1.0% respectively, completely reversing the losses from 2 weeks ago. The market has released that the fears of a China-led slowdown in industrial metals has been overdone. However, the bounce in prices drove outflows from nickel, copper and palladium ETPs of US$1.1mn, US$6.7mn and US6.5mn respectively.
Key events to watch this week. In addition to the Fed, The Swiss National Bank and Bank of Japan, two other policy makers of haven currency countries will host their respective monetary policy meetings, revealing their interpretation of recent financial market turmoil. Brazil’s CONAB will reveal just how large the coffee harvest this season has been..
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Risk Warnings
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
