Investing in the biggest security story of our time

Investing in the biggest security story of our time

Cyber security: Investing in the biggest security story of our time

Cyber security has become a top priority for companies and governments worldwide and it’s easy to see why: the move to digital means that businesses have a greater reliance than ever on the internet for a huge array of functions. And can be seen from the almost daily reports of security breaches and high profile attacks, no individuals, businesses or even governments are safe. In the last year alone, we have witnessed cyber attacks on organisations of every kind, from US political parties to UK mobile phone operators.

Senior executives, rather than back-office IT teams, now have ultimate responsibility for protecting networks, data and internet-enabled devices. As a result, cyber security has become big business: an estimated $1 trillion globally will be spent on cyber security products and services between 2017 and 2021. The risk of cyber attacks has also been heightened by the growing number of internet-connected devices globally. It is expected that 200 billion smart devices will be in use by 2020.

With cyber security now a megatrend, how can investors access this growing sector?

What is cyber security?

First and foremost, the cyber security industry is not a single discipline – it involves the expertise of companies in a range of sectors, including software development, communications equipment, advisory firms and aerospace and defence companies. There is no single way companies can keep their networks, devices and data secure: training staff to look out for bogus emails is as important as keeping software up to date and encrypting the most sensitive data.

The overall goal of cyber security is to protect computer networks, programs, connected devices such as desktop computers and smartphones, and the data they hold, from unauthorised access and theft. This could be a deliberate and/or malicious attack by a cyber criminal looking to steal data to sell, a hacker looking to cause mischief or a business rival or nation state looking for sensitive information. It could also be an innocent mistake; 17.7 per cent of data breaches were caused by unintentional actions or errors, according to 2016 research by Verizon.

The cyber threat is real – and companies are spending money to tackle it

One of the unique aspects of cyber security is that cyber threats are constantly evolving: as systems and devices evolve, would-be attackers are developing loopholes to exploit them. The number of cyber threats affecting businesses reached an all-time high in 2016, including a 752 per cent jump in the varieties of ransomware seen by security experts, according to Trend Micro research.

High-profile cyber attacks are illustrative of the potential damage cyber attacks can have on a company’s reputation, revenue and future growth prospects. Yahoo last year disclosed two breaches, one affecting more than 1 billion accounts and the second around 500 million users.5 These breaches resulted in US criminal charges and caused Verizon to abandon its takeover bid of Yahoo for $350 million. In the UK, internet service provider TalkTalk had to pay a record £400,000 fine after the personal details of 150,000 customers were accessed by a cyber-attack. In the political sphere, it is alleged that Russian hackers targeted senior Democratic party figures as part of efforts to influence the outcome of last year’s US presidential election.

IDC forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3 per cent for the cyber security industry, more than twice the rate of overall IT spending growth, between 2016 and 20207. Within cyber security, the largest areas of growth will be mobile security, Internet of Things (IoT) security, and specialised threat analysis and protection, according to Bloomberg and IDC.

How can investors access the cyber security megatrend?

Cyber security, and the organisations and products that companies use to combat the threat, will become increasingly important: regulatory requirements on data protection and privacy are set to increase, and the expansion of the Internet of Things means more objects, from phones to fridges, will have an internet connection and produce data that will need to be secured.

Governments are also making it a priority: Philip Hammond, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, has set up the National Cyber Security Strategy, underpinned by a £1.9 billion investment, and President Trump in the US is expected to sign an executive order on cyber security in the spring.

All these elements mean businesses are likely to allocate bigger budgets to cyber security. However it is too early in the life of the cyber security megatrend to clearly identify any winners: there are many competing technologies addressing the ever-evolving threat, including the work of start-ups that haven’t yet secured patents. These smaller companies are offering innovative technologies and products, and venture capital firms invested around $8 billion in cyber security companies between 2014 and 2016. Additionally, trying to pick individual stocks among companies at such an early stage exposes investors to a higher degree of volatility than they may wish to take on.

Investment exposure to the cyber security industry therefore requires a passive approach. A global and diversified exposure can give investors access to all the elements spurring growth of the cyber security space. Typically, smaller and midcap companies have been offering the most innovative technologies and products, and so any exposure should ideally capture these players. Finally, in order to remain true to the theme, an equal-weight portfolio ensures end-to-end exposure to the whole ecosystem of companies and provides exposure to the companies that will be tomorrow’s winners.

For more information, visit etfsecurities.com/cyber

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Diversification, the only free lunch in investing

Diversification, the only free lunch in investing

Diversification, the one free lunch in investing

Robin Powell interviews Lars Kroijer / Investment author

Hello there.

It has been said that diversification is the investing equivalent of a free lunch. The evidence shows that it’s the best way to manage risk and that, over the long-term, it also leads to higher returns. The good news is that index funds and other passively managed investments have diversification built in. Here’s investment author Lars Kroijer.

I believe in index funds because you can very cheaply get exposure to a very broad array of industries, sectors, geographies and jurisdictions without really doing much yourself. It is better than buying A: individual stocks or even picking individual industries or countries.

We’re always hearing of investors who managed to buy just the right thing at the right time. But they’re actually a tiny minority. Sure, you might get lucky.. but why take the risk of being unlucky?

Take the example 20 years ago that you had invested in just one market. If you’d picked the right market that would’ve been great. If you had picked the market that was en vogue at the time namely Japan, you would’ve lost 75 or 80% of your money. If you had picked the whole world, which is what I advocate doing, you would had diversified the risk away of being unlucky and picking just one country, in this case Japan.

Of course, this is the age of globalisation. Markets in different parts of the world are more closely correlated than they were before. So, have the benefits of diversification lessened?

I’ll give the short answer and the short answer is yes. And why is that? Because companies are now more global, look at Google they operate in every country in the world I’m sure as does McDonalds and Phillips and all the other big companies. The short answer is the benefits of diversification is lessened. The cantor to that is though that 50 years ago, even when I was at University…not quite, in the early to mid 90’s you couldn’t actually buy it. So you could’t actually easily get exposure to most of these countries. If you say: “Let’s buy some shares in India”, well 20 years ago you couldn’t actually do it. You could by the US, some countries in Western Europe, perhaps Japan. All these other diversifying markets were simply not available to you. Now they are. Just like back then, index investments like Vanguard were just really beginning to increase in size, but even back then they only had the US markets. Now they’re global. Use those benefits you can gain from that.

That’s all for now. Thanks for watching.


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Moativated Investing – A History of Outperformance

Moativated Investing – A History of Outperformance

Moativated Investing – A History of Outperformance. Long-term outperformance defines the track record of Morningstar’s success in identifying quality ”moat” companies with sustainable competitive advantages that are also trading at attractive valuations. Since its live inception in 2007, the Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM has outperformed the S&P 500® Index by more than four percentage points each year, as shown in the chart below.

Morningstar’s Economic Moat Rating

Morningstar first began rating companies in 2002 according to the strength and longevity of their competitive advantages. Nearly fifteen years later, Morningstar’s equity research process remains rooted in the core belief that quality companies positioned to maintain one or more competitive advantages well into the future are best positioned for long-term success. The quality of these companies is reflected in Morningstar’s Economic Moat Rating. Morningstar’s unique Economic Moat Rating system helps investors identify how likely a company is to keep competitors at bay for an extended period. The highest rating, a wide economic moat, signifies Morningstar’s belief that the company can sustain its competitive advantage for at least 20 years into the future, which is no small feat in today’s ultra-competitive environment.

Fair Value Represents A Company’s Long-Term Intrinsic Value

Another key component to Morningstar’s moat-investing equity research approach is its valuation process. Morningstar equity analysts assign a fair value estimate to each company based on how much cash it believes the company may generate in the future. The fair value represents a company’s long-term intrinsic value. Of course, stocks may trade above or below the company’s underlying fair value. The key is to identify those companies that are attractively priced at the time of investment. VanEck VectorsTM Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is the only U.S. ETF that seeks to track the Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM (the ”Index”), a benchmark that combines Morningstar’s measure of quality with their valuation framework. The Index’s approach to identifying U.S. companies with wide economic moats that are attractively priced has resulted in long-term outperformance versus the broader U.S. equity market, and provided a unique way for investors to invest in quality companies.

U.S. Moat Investing Has Provided a Long-Term Performance Advantage

Cumulative Index Returns 2/14/2007 to 9/30/2016 (click to enlarge) Source: Morningstar; FactSet. Index performance is not representative of Fund performance. Fund performance current to the most recent month-end can be found at www.vaneck.com/moat. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Important Disclosures

Fair value estimate: The Morningstar analyst’s estimate of what a stock is worth. The Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index consists of U.S. companies identified as having sustainable, competitive advantages and whose stocks are the most attractively priced, according to Morningstar. The S&P 500® Index consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering the leading industries of the U.S. economy. The Morningstar® Wide Moat Focus IndexSM was created and is maintained by Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar, Inc. does not sponsor, endorse, issue, sell, or promote the VanEck Vectors Morningstar Wide Moat ETF and bears no liability with respect to the ETF or any security. Morningstar® is a registered trademark of Morningstar, Inc. Morningstar Wide Moat Focus Index is a service mark of Morningstar, Inc. This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction. The information herein represents the opinion of the author(s), but not necessarily those of VanEck, and these opinions may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck. Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made. An investment in the VanEck VectorsTM Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) may be subject to risks which include, among others, investing in the health care sector, investing in the consumer discretionary sector, investing in the industrials sector, investing in the information technology sector, investing in the financial services sector, equity securities, market, index tracking, authorized participant concentration, short history of an active market/no guarantee of active trading market, trading Issues, replication management, premium/discount, non-diversified and concentration risk, fluctuations in value due to market and economic conditions or factors relating to specific issuers. Medium-capitalization companies may be subject to elevated risks. The Fund’s assets may be concentrated in a particular sector and may be subject to more risk than investments in a diverse group of sectors. Fund shares are not individually redeemable and will be issued and redeemed at their Net Asset Value (NAV) only through certain authorized broker-dealers in large, specified blocks of shares called ”creation units” and otherwise can be bought and sold only through exchange trading. Creation units are issued and redeemed principally in kind. Shares may trade at a premium or discount to their NAV in the secondary market. You will incur brokerage expenses when trading Fund shares in the secondary market. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns for actual Fund investments may differ from what is shown because of differences in timing, the amount invested, and fees and expenses. Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a Fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.

Commodities Stand Out

Commodities Stand Out

Investment Outlook: Commodities Stand Out

Video – Investment Outlook: Commodities Stand Out

Jan van Eck, CEO, provides an update on his investment outlook for 2016. The rally in commodities has done more than provide an investment opportunity; it has also driven positive performance in a number of other asset classes. Commodities Stand Out.

TOM BUTCHER: Jan, commodities have seen a rebound in 2016. What’s your outlook for the rest of the year?

JAN VAN ECK: We’re very happy about the first quarter rebound. We do think commodities have bottomed and there are a couple of factors to consider. What we always stress, because I think it’s the most important thing for people to understand, is the supply response. We think there has always been a growing demand for commodities around the world, whether it’s energy, natural gas, oil, or metals, such as copper. What caused prices to fall was an oversupply situation, which we think has been corrected. We’re glad to see that demand has caught up with supply.

I think the way for investors to think about this current environment is to consider this as an opportunity if one takes a much longer term perspective. We investors tend to be very focused on the short term. Energy is now very low as a percent of the overall S&P 500® Index. At its peak it was close to 16% and it’s near 6% now. Taking a multi-decade perspective tells us that energy is relatively cheap right now. Similarly, if you look at gold shares over a longer period of time, you may see that while they’ve risen a great deal this year, they may still have much further to go because they fell so far.

My Message to Investors: This is a Great Opportunity

That is my number one message to investors: This is a great longer term opportunity. Don’t obsess about the correct entry point.

BUTCHER: But global growth has been slow, debt levels have been high, and some governments have actually resorted to negative rates.

VAN ECK: We’ve seen this year a real inflection point, as Japan brought some of its interest rates negative. The question is how do you get economic growth going? After the financial crisis in the U.S., we had the same response: zero interest rates to try to stimulate economic growth. I think central banks are now basically taking it to the next level, i.e., negative interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen spoke about this in her recent testimony, and former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has been speaking about negative interest rates as well.

Negative Interest Rates May Cause Investors to Disengage

We think negative rates can be dangerous. Rather than stimulating the economy, negative interest rates, I believe, can cause people to withdraw from participating. Think about it from an investor’s perspective. It is very worrisome when a bank will only give you 99 cents at the end of the year when you gave it a dollar in January. I think that can make people take less risk rather than engage in order to help stimulate growth.

Negative interest rates are fantastic for gold because gold doesn’t pay a coupon, unlike bonds or stocks that pay dividends. Gold always has to compete with other financial assets but if financial assets are costing you money in a negative interest rate environment, we see no reason not to own gold. We think that’s one of the reasons why gold has been rallying this year.

China’s Consumer-Driven ”New” Economy: Exciting, Yet ”Lumpy”

BUTCHER: What are your views on China?

VAN ECK: China is the second largest economy in the world and we think that every investment committee needs to have a view on China. Our view has been that, while there are some growing pains, and the devaluation of the renminbi was a major event last year, there are no systemic risks [i.e., risks inherent to China’s entire economy, rather than a single segment of the economy].

One of the things that we love to talk about is new China versus old China. New China is characterized by the consumer-driven and healthcare sectors; old China is steel, coal, and heavy manufacturing. Old China is continuing to face profitability issues. Another matter that we’ve recently been discussing is the growth of China’s overall debt levels, which are particularly concentrated in old China. There is between $1 to $2 trillion of bad debt in China right now. China’s economy amounts to $10 trillion and its overall debt level is approximately $20 trillion. These are large numbers. However, not every bad debt goes to zero, but the bad debt is very concentrated in the old economy sectors.1

We don’t think that causes a systemic risk but it may cause lumpiness in the performance of some of China’s financial assets. Because various regions will be badly affected, people who have fixed income exposure to those regions will likely be badly impacted. There are likely to be some defaults. Still, we think it’s a good thing because it’s a healthy process.

What’s Changed in our Outlook Since January

BUTCHER: Jan, you described your outlook at the beginning of 2016. How has it changed since January?

VAN ECK: Several important things happened in the first quarter. First of all, we thought that credit was very cheap, meaning interest rates had risen on MLPs [master limited partnerships] and on high yield bonds, which were almost showing signs of distress. We also said that this represented a great investment opportunity. In fact, high yield has outperformed the U.S. equity market2. Right now, I think that high risk bonds are a little less appealing today than they were when we first started the year.

Commodities Q1 Rally Creates Positive Inflection Point

Additionally, I think the equity markets still have a lot of struggling to do because price-to-earnings ratios are very high. Earnings fell last year in the U.S. They should be recovering now, looking forward over the next 12 months. Part of the reason is the strong U.S. dollar. Overall, we think equities are so-so and the U.S. economy, as well as the global economy, will muddle along.

Commodities were the big story in the first quarter. They dragged up other asset classes. For example, they helped emerging markets debt; they’ve helped Latin America. A good amount of high yield U.S. debt was energy-related, and it has rallied tremendously. It is interesting that what can be characterized as a bottom-up phenomenon of supply cuts kicking in within the commodities sector has helped other asset classes from a macro perspective.

Overall, we believe that commodities are the standout from a multi-year view. This is a great time for investors to look at them, given that we believe this is an inflection point.

BUTCHER: Thank you very much.

Market Insights

by Jan van Eck, CEO

An innovator of investment solutions, Jan van Eck has created a multitude of strategies spanning international, emerging markets, and commodities opportunities. He plays an active role in shaping the firm’s actively managed and ETF investment offerings. Jan’s research focus is on developments in China and technology’s effect on the financial services industry.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE

1Source: CEIC, HSBC. Data as of December 2015.

2Source: Bloomberg, March 31, 2016.

This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction. You can obtain more specific information on VanEck strategies by visiting Investment Strategies.

The views and opinions expressed are those of the speaker(s) and are current as of the posting date. Commentaries are general in nature and should not be construed as investment advice. Opinions are subject to change with market conditions. All performance information is historical and is not a guarantee of future results.

Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers investment portfolios that invest in the asset class(es) mentioned in this post and video. You can lose money by investing in a commodities fund. Any investment in a commodities fund should be part of an overall investment program, not a complete program. Commodities are assets that have tangible properties, such as oil, metals, and agriculture. Commodities and commodity-linked derivatives may be affected by overall market movements and other factors that affect the value of a particular industry or commodity, such as weather, disease, embargoes or political or regulatory developments. The value of a commodity-linked derivative is generally based on price movements of a commodity, a commodity futures contract, a commodity index or other economic variables based on the commodity markets. Derivatives use leverage, which may exaggerate a loss. A commodities fund is subject to the risks associated with its investments in commodity-linked derivatives, risks of investing in wholly owned subsidiary, risk of tracking error, risks of aggressive investment techniques, leverage risk, derivatives risks, counterparty risks, non-diversification risk, credit risk, concentration risk and market risk. The use of commodity-linked derivatives such as swaps, commodity-linked structured notes and futures entails substantial risks, including risk of loss of a significant portion of their principal value, lack of a secondary market, increased volatility, correlation risk, liquidity risk, interest-rate risk, market risk, credit risk, valuation risk and tax risk. Gains and losses from speculative positions in derivatives may be much greater than the derivative’s cost. At any time, the risk of loss of any individual security held by a commodities fund could be significantly higher than 50% of the security’s value. Investment in commodity markets may not be suitable for all investors. A commodity fund’s investment in commodity-linked derivative instruments may subject the fund to greater volatility than investment in traditional securities.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any investment strategy carefully before investing. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Van Eck Securities Corporation.

Global X Funds launches Millennials Thematic ETF

Global X Funds launches Millennials Thematic ETF

Global X Funds launches Millennials Thematic ETF Global X Funds, the New York-based provider of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), today launched the Global X Millennials Thematic ETF (Nasdaq: MILN). MILN is the ninth ETF in Global X’s suite of thematic funds, and the first in its ’People’ category, which focuses on emerging trends pertaining to changing demographics and consumer behaviors. Global X plans to further expand the ’Thematic – People’ category with launches of the Global X Longevity Thematic ETF (LNGR) and the Global X Health & Wellness Thematic ETF (BFIT) expected next week.

(click to enlarge)

There are over 90 million Millennials in the United States, making it the largest generation. MILN includes those companies that are among the best positioned to benefit as Millennials, those aged 16-36, gradually enter peak earning years, and become a major force within the U.S. economy.

Millennials currently earn roughly $2 trillion in income, and are poised to earn roughly $8 trillion by 2025. Additionally, the total transfer of wealth from Baby Boomers to Millennials is expected to reach $40 trillion.

”As Millennials enter their prime earning years, companies that cater to their unique spending preferences are expected to gain market share,” said Jay Jacobs, director of research of Global X. ”These companies can come from a broad range of industries and hit on a variety of sub-themes inherent with millennials, such as the use of social media, consumption of digital content, a focus on health and wellness, and investment in education and career advancement, among many others.”

Thematic investments aim to access the high growth potential of companies at the forefront of a long-term, structural changes in the economy. By transcending classic sector and industry classifications, thematic investing seeks to harness macro-level trends and the investments best suited to benefit from those trends.

”Thematic investing is a research-driven approach that has long been available to institutional investors seeking growth opportunities,” added Mr. Jacobs. ”At a time of weak earnings and low GDP growth, we’re excited to broaden our growth-seeking thematic suite of ETFs to now include strategies that seek to benefit from substantial shifts in demographics and consumer behavior.”

ABOUT GLOBAL X

Seeking to provide access to high-quality and cost-efficient investment solutions, Global X is a New York-based sponsor of exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Founded in 2008, we are distinguished by our smart core, income, alpha, risk management and access suites of ETFs and have more than 40 funds available across U.S. and foreign exchanges. Global X is recognized as a leader in developing intelligent investment solutions for our clients.

DISCLOSURE

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. The investable universe of companies in which the Fund may invest may be limited. The Fund invests in securities of companies engaged in Information Technology which can be affected by rapid product obsolescence, and intense industry competition. In addition to normal risks associated with investing, international investments may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from social, economic or political instability in other nations. The fund is non-diversified which represents a heightened risk to investors.

Carefully consider the Funds’ investment objectives, risk factors, charges, and expenses before investing. This and additional information can be found in the Funds’ prospectus, which may be obtained by calling 1-888-GX-FUND-1 (1.888.493.8631), or by visiting www.globalxfunds.com. Read the prospectus carefully before investing.

Global X Management Company, LLC serves as an advisor to the Global X Funds. The Funds are distributed by SEI Investments Distribution Co., which is not affiliated with Global X Management Company or any of its affiliates.