Bristerna med kortfristiga obligationsfonder

Bristerna med kortfristiga obligationsfonder IGHG ProsharesObligationspriserna faller när räntorna stiger. Så när räntorna stiger flyttar många investerare sina räntebärande innehav till kortfristiga obligationer för att minska ränterisken. Vad de kanske inte inser är att de genom att göra så riskerar de sina potentiella avkastningar på två sätt:

För det första reducerar ränterisken till kortfristiga obligationer men eliminerar inte den. Kortfristiga obligationer har fortfarande ränterisk.

För det andra har kortfristiga obligationer mindre exponering för kreditmöjligheter (och naturligtvis risker), en viktig drivkraft för obligationsavkastning.

Ett alternativt tillvägagångssätt är att försöka eliminera ränterisken samtidigt som full exponering för kreditmöjligheter upprätthålls. Det här är vad en räntesäkringsstrategi syftar till att göra. Det är viktigt för att, när räntorna stiger, kreditspreadarna har stramat och ökat avkastningen.

En räntesäkringsstrategi upprätthåller fullt exponering för kreditrisk/möjlighet

Ett bättre sätt att förbereda sig?

ProShares Investment Grade-Interest Hedged (IGHG) spårar indexet Citi Corporate Investment Grade (Treasury Rate-Hedged), som erbjuder en diversifierad portfölj av långfristiga långfristiga obligationer med investeringsklass med inbyggd räntesäkring. IGHG upprätthåller fullständig exponering för kreditrisk som en primär avkastningskälla, medan hedgen är utformad för att lindra effekten av stigande räntor

Kortfristiga obligationsfonder hjälper investerare att minska ränterisken, men de har brister. Om du letar efter en potentiellt bättre lösning för stigande räntor, överväga en räntesäkringskredit ETF som ProShares Investment Grade—Interest Rate Hedged (IGHG).

När räntorna steg överträffade IGHGs index ett kortvarigt obligationsindex

Källa: Bloomberg, december 2013 – september 2018. Genomsnittlig prestation baserad på kvartalsvisa förändringar i 10-årsskattemässiga avkastning. Stigande ränteperioder är varje kalenderkvartal där 10-årsskattemässig avkastning ökar. Från och med den 9/30/2018 var varaktigheten för FTSE Corporate Investment Grade (Treasury-Rate Hedged) Index 10,26 år. Varaktighet är ett mått på fondens känslighet för ränteförändringar, vilket återspeglar den sannolika förändringen i obligationspriserna med en liten förändring av avkastningen. Högre varaktighet innebär generellt större känslighet. Bloomberg Barclays amerikanska 1-5-åriga företagsobligationsindex mäter avkastningen på värdepapper i amerikanska dollar, investment grade, fast ränta, skattepliktiga värdepapper emitterade av industri-, el- och finansiella företag med löptider mellan 1 och 5 år.

Förenkla ränteplaceringar med BulletShares ETFer

Förenkla ränteplaceringar med BulletShares ETFer

Skapa inkomstpotential när du behöver det med börshandlade fonder med definierade löptider ETF. Vad är BulletShares ETFer? BulletShares är en serie definierade förfallobaserade ETFs som kan ge kassaflöde, flexibiliteten att anpassa löptider och öppenheten för att veta vad du äger. Varje BulletShares ETF förfaller i den börshandlade fondens angivna år och returnerar sina nettotillgångar till aktieägarna.

BulletShares Corporate Bond Portfolios

Totalkostnadsförhållande: 0,10%

• BSCI 2018
• BSCJ 2019
• BSCK 2020
• BSCL 2021
• BSCM 2022
• BSCN 2023
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BulletShares High Yield Corporate Bond Portfolios

Totalkostnadsförhållande: 0,42%

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Skapandet

Från ett brett universum av investment grade eller high yield-obligationer, valts räntebärande papper ut enligt kreditkvalitet och löptid för att skapa den definierade löptidens ETF.

Dessa scenarier är endast illustrativa.
Använd Invescos interaktiva verktyg för att se hur BulletShares ETFer påverkar Din ränteportfölj.

BulletShares vs Fixed Income Funds vs Obligationer

BulletShares ETF-serien kombinerar precisionen för enskilda obligationer med ETFens flexibilitet och kostnadseffektivitet.

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Professionell portföljförvaltning omfattar aktiva och passivt förvaltade fonder och ETFer. De ovan beskrivna egenskaperna representerar allmänna attribut för typiska investeringar av de angivna typerna. Specifika investeringar kan ha olika egenskaper.

Obligationer uppvisar generellt mindre kortfristig risk och volatilitet än aktier, men obligationsmarknaden är volatil och investeringar i obligationer innebär ränterisk. När räntorna stiger, faller obligationspriserna vanligtvis och vice versa. Obligationer medför också emittent- och motpartskreditrisk och risken för misstag. Dessutom innebär obligationer i allmänhet större inflationsrisk än aktier. Till skillnad från enskilda obligationer har obligationsfonder avgifter och utgifter och de flesta obligationsfonderna har inte en enskild löptid, så att hålla dem till förfall för att undvika förluster som orsakas av prisvolatilitet är inte möjligt.

Deutsche AM’s db X-trackers platform launches the first Asia ex-Japan USD corporate bond ETF

Deutsche AM’s db X-trackers platform launches the first Asia ex-Japan USD corporate bond ETF

Deutsche Asset Management’s (Deutsche AM) db X-trackers platform has launched the world’s first exchange-traded fund (ETF) providing exposure to the Asia ex-Japan US dollar corporate bond market 1. Deutsche AM’s db X-trackers platform launches the first Asia ex-Japan USD corporate bond ETF

db x-trackers II iBoxx USD Liquid Asia Ex-Japan Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (DR) has listed on the Deutsche Börse today and is due to list on the London Stock Exchange next week. The ETF tracks an index currently composed of 148 investment-grade corporate bonds from nine countries2. It is a direct, physical replication ETF.

“Asia US dollar Investment Grade (IG) corporate bond issuance increased from around USD 21 billion dollars in 2010 to around USD 63 billion dollars in 20153. This is an important and growing section of the global bond market, and this new ETF provides investors with a flexible and efficient way to access such exposure,” says Anson Chow, Deutsche AM’s Head of Exchange Traded Product Development, Asia-Pacific.

The ETF’s underlying index is the Markit iBoxx USD Liquid Asia Ex-Japan Corporates Large Cap Investment Grade Index®. Only bonds with over USD 750 million in outstanding notional qualify for inclusion in the index, which has a yield of 3.10%, average duration of 5.03 years, and average credit quality of ‘A-’4.

“It’s interesting to observe that over the past three years the Asia investment grade corporate bond market has generally shown a higher volatility-adjusted return compared to the US IG corporate universe5. And that in the past 10 years there have been no defaults in the bonds included in the index underlying this ETF7,” adds Chow.

As of 31 August, 2016, Chinese corporate bonds represent the highest weighting in the index, at slightly more than 50%. Corporate bonds from Hong Kong and India both have weightings of more than 10%. This is consistent with Greater China and India representing over 70% of the GDP of the Asia ex-Japan region6. Other countries represented in the index are Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand and South Korea7.

The ETF has an annual All-in Fee of 0.30%.

Deutsche AM’s db x-trackers platform has an extensive range of fixed income ETFs, including the db x-trackers Barclays USD Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (DR), which is a physical replication ETF tracking the predominantly US corporate bond market. The ETF launched in October 2015 and has already attracted more than USD 550 million in assets under management8.

For further information please contact:

Narva, Olof Ehrs

+46 70 481 72 34 Olof.Ehrs@narva.se

Product Details

Name of ETF:         db x-trackers II iBoxx USD Liquid Asia Ex-Japan Corporate Bond UCITS ETF (DR)
BBG Code:         ALQD
ISIN:            LU1409136006
Fund Currency:        USD
Listing Currency:     USD (LSE)/EUR (Xetra)
Annual All-in Fee:    0.30%
Physical/synthetic:    Physical
UCITS compliant:     Yes

1 Source: DB Research – Europe ETF + Quarterly Directory, US ETF + Quarterly Directory, Asia Pac ETF + Quarterly Directory, June 2016. www.dbresearch.com
2 Source, Markit, 31 August, 2016. www.markit.com
3 Source: BAML Research Asia Credit 360˚, 11 May 2016. http://www.bofaml.com/en-us/content/apac-asia-pacific.html
4Source: Bloomberg, Deutsche Asset Management, data as of 31 July 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
5 Source: BAML Research Asia Credit 360°11 May 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. http://www.bofaml.com/en-us/content/apac-asia-pacific.html
6 Source: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (April 2016). http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/
7 Source: Markit, Deutsche Bank, data as of 29 July 2016. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.
8 Source: Deutsche AM, 23 August 2016. www.etf.db.com

Deutsche Asset Management

With EUR 719 billion of assets under management (as of June 30, 2016), Deutsche Asset Management¹ is one of the world’s leading investment management organizations. Deutsche Asset Management offers individuals and institutions traditional and alternative investments across all major asset classes.

¹ Deutsche Asset Management is the brand name of the Asset Management division of the Deutsche Bank Group. The respective legal entities offering products or services under the Deutsche Asset Management brand are specified in the respective contracts, sales materials and other product information documents.

Key risks

Investors should note that the db X-trackers UCITS ETFs1 are not capital protected or guaranteed and investors should be prepared and able to sustain losses of the capital invested up to a total loss.

Shares in db X-trackers UCITS ETFs which are purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to the relevant fund. Investors must purchase and redeem such shares on the secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a market maker or a stock broker) and may incur fees for doing so (as further described in the applicable prospectus). In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value of a share in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF when buying shares on the secondary market, and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling such shares on the secondary market.

Investments in funds involve numerous risks including, among others, general market risks, credit risks, foreign exchange risks, interest rate risks and liquidity risks. The value of an investment in a db X-trackers UCITS ETF may go down as well as up and investors may not get back the full amount of their original investment.

Important Notice

This press release has been issued and approved by Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch and has been prepared solely for information purposes, and is not an offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction.

Deutsche Bank AG is authorised under German Banking Law (competent authority: European Central Bank) and, in the United Kingdom, by the Prudential Regulation Authority. It is subject to supervision by the European Central Bank and by BaFin, Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, and is subject to limited regulation in the United Kingdom by the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority. Deutsche Bank AG is a joint stock corporation with limited liability incorporated in the Federal Republic of Germany, Local Court of Frankfurt am Main, HRB No. 30 000; Branch Registration in England and Wales BR000005 and Registered Address: Winchester House, 1 Great Winchester Street, London EC2N 2DB.

Please refer to the relevant fund’s full prospectus and the latest version of the Key Investor Information Document for more information on db X-trackers UCITS ETFs. These documents are available free of charge from Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch and constitute the only binding basis for purchase of shares in the ETFs. As explained in the relevant offering documents, distribution of ETFs is subject to restrictions in certain jurisdictions. The ETFs described herein may neither be offered for sale nor sold in the USA, in Canada, in Japan to US Persons or to persons residing in the USA.

The indices mentioned herein are registered trademarks of Markit Indices Limited and Deutsche Bank AG (the Licensors). The ETFs described in this document are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted in any way by the Licensors of the indices or any of their members mentioned herein (with the exception of Deutsche Bank AG). The Licensors of the indices mentioned herein (including Deutsche Bank AG) make no representations or warranties concerning the results obtained by using their indices and/or index levels or in any other respect, on any given day. The index sponsors are not liable for errors in their indices and are not obliged to provide information of such errors.

All-in Fee:

Direct replication funds. • Investors should be aware that in addition to the All-In Fee, other factors may negatively impact the performance of their investment relative to the underlying index. • Examples include: Brokerage and other transaction costs, Financial Transaction Taxes or Stamp Duties as well as potential differences in taxation of either capital gains or dividend assumed in the relevant underlying index, and actual taxation of either capital gains or dividends in the fund. • The precise impact of these costs cannot be estimated reliably in advance as it depends on a variety of non-static factors. Investors are encouraged to consult the audited annual- and un-audited semi-annual reports for details.

db x-trackers UCITS ETFs are all ETFs of one of the following platforms: db x-trackers, db x-trackers II or Concept Fund Solutions plc.

 

Euro IG corporate spreads have room to tighten

Euro IG corporate spreads have room to tighten

Summary Euro IG corporate spreads have room to tighten

European credit spreads should eventually move tighter to echo the gradual economic recovery in the Eurozone.
ECB’s new corporate sector purchase programme reinforces our preference for European credit versus US credit spreads.
Since the Eurozone recovery is mainly domestically driven, we believe domestic sectors will outperform globally exposed sectors.

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The global sell-off of risky assets altered corporate bonds

The start of the year was marked by elevated financial market volatility, amid a sharp decline in Chinese equity prices and oil prices. This environment led to a downward repricing of riskier financial assets, with spreads of high yield (HY) bonds increasing more than investment grade (IG) ones. While the spread between high yield and investment grade yield rose, average corporate bond yields were broadly unchanged. Credit spreads rose mainly as a result of government bond yields falling. Yields on 10yr Treasuries and Bunds both dropped by 48bps year-to-date, to 1.79% and 0.15% respectively. Thereafter, the drops in risk free rates partly reversed as oil prices rebounded, economic data in the United States showed positive surprise and expectations of further monetary policy stimulus in the Eurozone eased investors’ fears.
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ECB set to buy IG Corporate Bonds

Interest rates cuts, as well as the effects of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) quantitative easing programmes – namely, targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) and the expanded asset purchase programme (APP) – have contributed to improvements in money and credit dynamics since 2014. Between May 2014 and January 2016, the composite lending rate on loans to Eurozone non-financial corporations (NFC) fell by more than 80 basis points (bps) to 2.09%, according to the ECB. Moreover, the spread between interest rates charged on small loans and those charged on large loans (above 1 million euros) in the Eurozone has followed a downward path since the start of credit easing. Overall, this indicates that small and medium-sized enterprises (SME), which rely on banks for 80% of their financing, have benefited most from the ECB’s programmes. The reason why the ECB has first focused on SME is that they are critical to the recovery in the Eurozone as they provide two thirds of the jobs in the region and even more in peripherals countries. By including Investment Grade euro-denominated bonds issued by NFC established in the euro area in the list of assets that are eligible for regular purchases, the ECB is now enlarging its programme to also support larger firms.

This new programme along with the prospect for a greater divergence between the Fed and the ECB surely reinforces our preference for European credit spreads versus US credit spreads. The expected scarcity of EUR IG NFC bonds due to ECB’s purchases has pushed their prices higher. On the day following the announcement, European credit spreads for Investment Grade (IG) and High Yield (HY) tightened, by 13bps and 46bps respectively1. We believe there is room for spreads to tighten further as we get more details on the programme.
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Sector performance

The economic recovery in the euro area is continuing, albeit with signs of a moderation in growth at the beginning of the year due to a weaker external environment. In 2015, real GDP grew by 1.6%, its strongest increase since 2011. The March 2016 ECB staff macroeconomic projections forecast somewhat lower euro area real GDP growth at 1.4% in 2016 (revised down 3bps from December), at 1.7% in 2017 (revised down 2bps) and at 1.8% in 2018. The continuing improvement of the economy in the Eurozone should stimulate risk appetite and thus drive spreads tighter.
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The economic recovery in the Eurozone is mainly domestically driven, thus we generally prefer domestically exposed cyclical sectors such as Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary and Utilities, to globally exposed sectors, such as Chemicals, Industrials and Technology.

Year to date, Materials and Mining outperformed other sectors, with their credit spreads tightening by over 100bps and 200bps respectively. But, Materials credit spreads remain wide (at 105bps) by historical standards – average Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread since 2012 stands at 81bps. Despite its ongoing transition from investment to consumption based growth, China’s demand of aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc increased in 2015, according to data from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics. In addition, oil demand was strong in 2015, but the unexpected increase of supply more than offset the upward pressures on prices. Overall, we see room for spreads’ compression in Energy, Materials and Mining.

European corporates are still de-leveraging

Given the steady improvement in the Euro area growth trajectory, core European profit margins have improved and should continue to do so. The profitability of core European firms showed improvement, with retained earnings registering a double-digit annual growth rate in 3Q2015. European corporates increased their cash holdings to their historical highs and subsequently reduced their external financing.

European firms have not taken advantage of their improving credit quality and lower interest rates to issue more debt. Euro IG corporates issuance activity has remained stable since 2013, as European firms continue to deleverage their balance sheets. This trend should not reverse until firms foresee higher revenues from organic growth. As the recovery is likely to be gradual, we do not expect a supply shock in the Euro corporates credit market. Thus, we think there is more room for profits in the European credit market than in the US credit market, since US IG corporates began releveraging in 2011.

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1 We took the EUR iTraxx Main Index for the EUR IG bonds and the EUR iTraxx Xover as a proxy for the EUR HY bonds.

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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Brasiliens kreditbetyg allt lägre

Brasiliens kreditbetyg allt lägre

Brasiliens kreditbetyg allt lägre och i veckan fick världens finansmarknader se hur Brasiliens kreditbetyg hamnade allt längre in i skräpterritoriet när kreditvärderingsinstitutet Standard & Poor sänkte det brasilianska kreditbetyget till BB från tidigare BB+. Sänkningen är ett steg, men utsikterna för Brasilien är negativa vilket skulle kunna indikera ytterligare sänkningar av landets kreditbetyg i framtiden. Sänkningen sker efter att Standard & Poor gjort bedömningen att de politiska och ekonomiska utmaningar Brasilien står inför är betydande.

Standard & Poor förväntar sig en mer utdragen anpassningsprocess med en långsammare korrigering i Brasiliens finanspolitik, samt ytterligare ett år av branta ekonomisk nedgång.

Den värsta lågkonjunkturen på mer än ett sekel

Brasilien befinner sig i den värsta lågkonjunkturen på mer än ett sekel efter det att råvarupriserna har rasat i mer än fem år och en avmattning i Kina, landets största handelspartner, lett till en minskad export av allt inklusive olja, järnmalm och sojabönor.

Den brasilianska valutan, realen, har rast med nästan 30 procent mot den amerikanska dollarn under det senaste året, vilket är det sämsta resultatet av alla större valutor. Fallet eskalerade efter det att Brasilien förlorade sitt kreditbetyg i september 2015 efter det att ett rekordstort budgetunderskott och en politisk oro försvårade ansträngningarna att genomföra skattemässiga justeringar.

Även kreditratinginstitutet Fitch Ratings sänkte Brasiliens kreditbetyg i december 2015 och har likaledes negativa utsikter för den brasilianska ekonomin. I december sänkte Moodys Investors Service landets kreditbetyg till Baa3 rating, den sista nivån investment grade, men sade att Brasiliens kreditbetyg är under översyn för en sänkning.