Dividends as alternative sources of income

Today, there are more investment choices than ever before. Yet, when looking for income, a lot of investors tend face two options:

• Take More Risk: Usually, this ends up being “credit” risk, which deals with the chance of an entity being able to meet specific obligations. Common strategies may focus on “High Yield” or “Floating Rate” debt, or dealing with European Banks, AT1 Coco Bonds. Why is there more income? To compensate investors for taking greater risk that payments won’t be made.
• Accept Lower Income: People are aging, so “lower income” may not necessarily be an option for everyone. If safety of principal is the primary objective, then there is little safer than government debt of some of the world’s most creditworthy countries, such as the United States, Germany or Japan. We cite these three countries because they also have exhibited “safe haven” characteristics, meaning that when investors are nervous, the value of these assets has historically tended to rise.

The ugly nature of inflation

Inflation is important to consider because it may be one of the most significant challenges facing investors in the future. Central Banks printed an awful lot of money in response to the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. History has indicated that typically the consequence of this response is higher inflation. Consider that, at 3% inflation, prices double every 24 years and at 5%, they double every 15 years. Inflation truly erodes real returns, as the purchasing power of future units of currency—be it British pounds, US Dollars or Euros—can buy less and less and less over time.

To give investors a sense of the current environment :

• The US 10-Year Treasury is yielding slightly more than 3.20%.
• The United Kingdom 10-Year Gilt is yielding almost 1.60%.
• The German 10-Year Bund is yielding less than 0.50%.
• The Italian 10-Year BTP (not currently in the headlines for its lack of risk—quite the opposite) is yielding nearly 3.40%.

An alternative may be dividend-paying stocks, as these are one investment option that could not only potentially provide income, but also have a higher potential for price appreciation—providing the opportunity to keep up with inflation. Consider that dividend equities:

• Offer the potential to grow your income stream through dividend growth, in fact, outpacing the rate of inflation over the entire history of the S&P 500 from 1957 to today .
• Provide potential growth of principal through price appreciation
• May offer more downside protection than their non-dividend paying counterparts

Dividends are everywhere

First, it is worth noting that dividends are quite prolific. Small, medium and large companies all over the world offer dividends, with nearly 35% from the United States, more than 18% from emerging markets and almost half coming from Europe and other developed international countries.

Figure 1: The world broken down by dividend stream weighted exposure

Sources: WisdomTree, Factset, Standard & Poor’s, with data measured as of the 30 September 2018 WisdomTree Global Dividend Index Screening. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. You cannot invest directly within an Index.

New paradigm for asset allocation?

While it is always difficult to make such a bold statement, we think that it is always important and valuable to look across different, logical alternatives. For decades, people have looked at equity markets and thought in terms of weighting stocks by their market capitalization (share price x number of shares outstanding). Doing this, roughly speaking, leads to approximately 50% weight to the US, 40% weight to the developed world ex-US, and 10% weight to emerging markets . Figure 1 substitutes “dividend per share” for “share price” in the aforementioned equation, and we saw the results in the regional allocations. Now might be an interesting time to be thinking in these ways, as the US equity market has tended toward strong outperformance for the better part of the past 10 years.

By Christopher Gannatti

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

A good year for Japanese stocks?

JAPAN

2019 is poised to be a good year for Japanese risk assets in general and Japanese small cap equities in particular. In fact, against a backdrop of rising US rates and growing equity market volatility, Japanese small caps may prove to be a great place to hide in 2019.

Of course, Japan’s overall market is very dependent on global economic fortunes and as much as 64% of TOPIX earnings depend on overseas sales. Therefore, Japanese large-cap performance will always depend on the US and Chinese business cycles.

Unfortunately, neither the world’s largest nor the second largest economy is likely to accelerate significantly in the coming 9-15 months. Against this, Japan’s domestic demand is in a multi-year structural uptrend, led by rising domestic consumer spending and, importantly, a forceful re-investment cycle by small and medium sized companies rushing to upgrade their local capital stock. This cycle is not affected by global trade uncertainties and the principal beneficiaries are Japan’s small cap companies.

Jesper Koll, Japan Senior Advisor, WisdomTree

Emerging Markets

After facing a volatile 2018, we expect emerging markets (EM) to recoup its losses and post strong gains in 2019.

We believe negative sentiment stemming from the strong US dollar, ongoing trade wars and the collapse of the Turkish Lira, was a key reason for strong outflows from emerging market assets in 2018. Fundamentals for most EM economies continue to remain stable. More importantly, the idiosyncratic risks among a few emerging market economies such as Venezuela, Argentina, South Africa and Turkey are not accurate representatives of emerging markets. We have also seen significant economic strides being made by each of these countries since then.

Emerging markets boast of having the lowest valuations among any major asset class globally, with nearly a 30% discount to developed markets and they offer a free cash flow yield estimated at 5-7% over the next year.

We expect sectors such as healthcare, real estate, consumer discretionary and utilities to benefit the most from higher earnings growth. We expect to see a turnaround in earnings growth in Brazil, Mexico, Turkey and Russia. We are seeing further signs of a modest deceleration in global growth impact the Federal Reserves interest rate path for 2019 and lower oil prices. Both of which should lend buoyancy to emerging market assets.

Aneeka Gupta, Associate Director – Research, WisdomTree

Europe

We remain cautious of economic growth in Europe owing to the rise of political headwinds namely; Brexit in March 2019, dwindling popularity of the grand coalition party in Germany, the EU parliamentary elections in May 2019 and Italian government’s fiscal budget proposal.

Current European GDP growth at 1.9% in 2018 is expected to slow to 1.6% in 2019 and 1.5% in 2020.

The impact of the trade concerns on the European auto sector is now being felt across the supply chain. Original equipment manufacturers have faced the largest setback. As European stocks broadly derive almost 20% of their revenue from emerging markets, the recent weakness across emerging markets has also weighed on demand for European goods. European corporate earnings have been strong in 2018 however the outlook remains strongly tied to a resolution around the trade uncertainties.

While the European Central Bank remains on track to end its bond buying programme by the end of 2018, it intends to reinvest the proceeds of maturing bonds purchased under the programme for an extended period and so monetary policy is poised to remain accommodative for a greater part of 2019 which should keep the Euro significantly lower. We remain less optimistic on the outlook for European equities until political headwinds abate.

Aneeka Gupta, Associate Director – Research, WisdomTree

US

US markets are poised to witness a modest deceleration in economic growth as the unwinding of the pro-cyclical tax reform takes effect in 2019. However, we continue to remain optimistic on US equities after a strong earnings season in the third quarter in 2018 with average earnings growth expectations as high as 27%. More importantly even on stripping out the effect of the tax reform average US earnings growth declines to only 18% which in comparison to the rest of world is still very high.

The recent results of the midterm elections confirm that Trump’s key fiscal policies such as Tax reform.1 and de-regulation are likely to remain in place. However, the gridlock in parliament suggests we are likely to greater oversight on Trump’s policy on trade, infrastructure, healthcare and immigration reform.

After the recent sell-off of US equities in October, US equity valuations are attractive on a 21x price to earnings ratio.

We remain cautious of the recent sell off in the technology sector and favour more defensive sectors such as healthcare, utilities and consumer staples.

Consumer confidence remains at an 18-year high and unemployment at a 49-year low. Core inflation is around the 2% mark. Federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has dialled down his rhetoric of an aggressive monetary policy stance at his last meeting, as he acknowledged risks to global growth and rising uncertainty owing to trade wars. Against this backdrop, we anticipate the Fed’s interest rate trajectory will be more gradual in 2019.

Aneeka Gupta, Associate Director – Research, WisdomTree

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

It’s a small world after all

As we have discussed many times at WisdomTree, small companies—and especially small companies that pay dividends—may offer investors some rather large opportunities.

And these opportunities can be quite global.

Small companies, big dividends

Small cap dividend payers exist in emerging markets, in Japan, in the US, as well as in Europe and everywhere around the world. Further, they often pay larger dividends than you may expect.

In Figure 1, we indicate WisdomTree’s approach to Small caps which:

1) Only includes dividend-paying small cap stocks and,
2) Weights those dividend-paying small cap stocks by their cash dividends.

This approach has led to the potential for higher dividend yields in markets around the world. While dividends themselves are something that investors can touch and feel at a regular frequency (so long as they are paid), Figure 1 represents the relationship between the current share prices of the underlying index constituents and the dividends that those constituents have paid over the prior 12 months. Within each respective colour, we are illustrating the difference that WisdomTree’s dividend-weighted approach has made relative to a relevant, well-known, market capitalization-weighted benchmark. While the magnitude of the dividend yield difference may change over time, the fact of the dividend-weighted approach having a higher dividend yield than the market capitalization-weighted approach has been consistent throughout the live history of these specified indices.
At each annual rebalance:

Stocks whose share prices have risen quickly but whose dividend growth has not kept pace will tend to see their weights reduced within WisdomTree’s methodology. With market capitalization-weighted approaches, stocks with greater market capitalization receive greater weights, regardless of valuation.
Stocks whose share prices have remained flat or fallen, but whose dividend growth has been relatively stronger will tend to see their weights increased within WisdomTree’s methodology. With market capitalization-weighted approaches, stocks with smaller market capitalization receive lower weights.

Figure 1: Illustrating the difference WisdomTree’s dividend methodology has made

Data is measured on 21 September 2018. You cannot invest directly within an Index. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Why small caps globally?

As the world has become more interconnected, large cap companies tend to be multinational and do business globally. Small caps, on the other hand, tend to be much more exposed to their local economies. If one is thinking of diversification on the basis of economic conditions and growth potential in different segments of the world, small caps may provide an interesting tool to use for this type of execution.

History has shown, as can be seen in Figure 2, that small caps have delivered strong performance over their large cap counterparts from 30 June 2002 to 31 August 2018.

Figure 2: Small caps vs. large caps in select regional equity markets

Source: Bloomberg. Returns are shown net of foreign tax withholdings. The period of 30 June 2002 to 31 August 2018 was selected due to data availability for the Russell 2000 30% Net of Tax Index, which is used to calculate the Russell 2000 Index’s return’s net of withholding taxes for non-US based investors. You cannot invest directly within an Index. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

We have listed four areas where we believe small caps are of particular interest:

United States

In a world dominated by trade-rhetoric, small cap companies in the US do the majority of their business within US borders and are less exposed to trade. Additionally, prior to the corporate tax cuts of December 2017, they were paying higher effective tax rates than their large cap peers, and therefore benefitted more from this policy change.

Japan

Japanese small caps receive the vast majority, approximately 80%, of their revenues from inside Japan. As the economic policies from Prime Minister Shinzō Abe focus on domestic Japan, small caps may be a better way to benefit than larger, export-oriented firms.

Europe

European small caps tend to be very well geared to shifts in sentiment, and they also do most of their business domestically. At times when it has been beneficial to avoid Europe’s largest banks, small caps have had this natural side effect.

Emerging Markets

Many investors we speak to focus on the billions of consumers within emerging markets raising their standards of living and driving global growth. Small cap companies better tap into this demographic theme.

Small caps can complement existing strategies

In many cases, we have seen the most enthusiasm from investors who have not considered small cap equities before, particularly in markets outside of their home region. Tapping into local revenue streams could be a critical element to bring the potential for differentiated performance.

Candlesticks och Ichimoku

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inbunden, Svenska, 2018

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Detta är Tobbes femte bok om trading. I boken får du lära dig tolka grafer via candlesticks och Ichimoku som bägge härstammar från Japan. Du får på ett lättbegripligt sätt lära dig hur olika formationer vänder eller förstärker psykologin. Som Mr Sanjin, upphovsmannen bakom Ichimoku, sade: ”Risken är stor för att man inte ser helheten utan bara träden och missar skogen”. Ichimoku system som ger dig en ovärderlig helhetssyn på bara någon sekund.

I slutet av boken får du lära dig flera strategier och hur de ska tradas. Peter Nilsson, författare till bl a Boken om Gerillatrading, Edge – lyft din aktiehandel till en ny nivå och Framgångsrik aktiehandel – 10 vinnande strategier, skriver så här om boken: ”Boken riktar sig inte bara till nybörjare. Flera av koncepten och teknikerna har mig veterligen inte tidigare beskrivits på svenska. Det finns något för alla här. För den som vill lära sig teknisk analys och trading är det viktigt att noga undersöka vad den som lär ut har för kompetenser. Tobbe Rosén tillhör toppskiktet.”

I boken Bli en vinnare med Candlesticks och Ichimoku får du ta del av många års erfarenhet i ämnena tradingpsykologi, analys och handfast trading. Peter Nilsson: ”Gör plats i bokhyllan för nytillskottet bredvid Tobbes tidigare böcker, men låt den inte stå där och samla damm”.

En av de billigaste japanska ETFerna

JPN, en av de billigaste japanska ETFerna är en intressant börshandlad fond för den som riktar sina blickar mot Japan. Investerare som vill diversifiera en aktieportfölj bör titta på internationella marknader för att bredda exponeringen och minska risken.

Deutsche X-trackers Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 Equity ETF (NYSEArca: JPN) sänkte nyligen sin förvaltningskostnad från 0,15 procent till 0,15 procent. Det gör JPN till en av de billigaste japanska ETFerna på marknaden. Den kan hjälpa investerare att få tillgång till de japanska aktiemarknaderna.

Indexet JPX-Nikkei 400 lanserades i januari 2014 som ett sätt att återuppliva den japanska aktiemarknaden. Till skillnad från traditionella marknadsvärdesvägda indexeringsmetoder använder JPX-Nikkei 400 Index en rigorös screeningprocess baserat på avkastning på eget kapital, kumulativt rörelseresultat och marknadsvärde för att välja högkvalitativa, kapitaleffektiva japanska företag.

Mindre topptungt än MSCI Japan Index

Jämfört med jämförelseindexet MSCI Japan Index är JPX-Nikkei 400 Index något mindre topptungt. Så har till exempel Toyota Motor bara 1,7% av indexets värde och Mitsubishi UFJ Financial utgör endast 1,3% av JPN: s underliggande portfölj. MSCI Japan Index tar en större position i vardera bolag, 4,6% respektive 2,2%.

JPN handlas 1,4% lägre än året innan men ökade med 15,4% under det gångna året. Framöver kan starka fundamenta stödja den japanska ekonomin som är en utvecklad marknad. Japan upplever inkomstökningar som drivs av interna faktorer som syftar till att öka privata kapitalutgifter och hushållskonsumtion, sade Yunyoung Lee, en portföljchef för Janus Henderson Investors.

Bank of Japan kommer också sannolikt att behålla sin lösa penningpolitik länge, jämfört med amerikanska centralbanken och E.U.s europeiska centralbank, som har vidtagit åtgärder för att avveckla sina kvantitativa lättnader.

Aktieägare kan dra nytta av ökade utdelningar

Dessutom hävdade Lee att japanska aktieägare kan dra nytta av ökade utdelningar och återköp av aktier, eftersom företagsreformer stärks av allt mer kapital. ”Sammantaget tror vi att japanska aktier kan leverera stark tillväxt i företagens vinster i år”, säger Lee.

Nikkei 225

Nikkei eller Nikkei 225 (Nikkei Heikinkabuka, även Nikkei225) är ett aktieindex för Tokyobörsen. Indexet har använts sedan 1950 och är det som vanligtvis används i Sverige.