Etikett: Libya

Oil suffers worst weekly outflows in six years

ETF Securities Oil suffers worst weekly outflows in six yearsOil suffers worst weekly outflows in six years

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Oil suffers worst weekly outflows in six years
  • Investors take profit on OPEC-led oil price rally.
  • Gold ETP outflows of US$274mn were highest since July 2015.
  • Profit-taking on long GBP, short EUR positions after Pound rallies on hopes of a softer Brexit.
Oil ETP outflows reach highest level since August 2010 as investors take profit on a 15% surge in prices. There were US$126mn of outflows from long oil ETPs. OPEC’s landmark deal to cut production for the first time in eight years drove the market euphoria as participants responded to the headline cut of 1.2 million barrels per day. However, anyone looking at the details can see that OPEC is not committing to cutting 1.2 million barrels from today’s levels. The reference figures from which they are cutting from are inflated (compare to what was produced in October). The main flaw of the agreement is that it exempts Nigeria, Libya and suspends Indonesia, but formulates a production target that includes them. It also contingent on non-OPEC countries cutting 0.6 mbd, which we consider very ambitious. ETP investors have taken profit as it is very likely that disappointment will sink in after the market has assessed the details. Outflows from gold ETPs accelerated to US$274mn – the highest since July 2015 – as the Fed’s December rate hike looms. A string of positive economic data from the US including an upward revision to GDP, a surge in consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing reaching a 5-month high and positive labour market data makes a December rate hike a near certainty. Gold’s traditional inverse relationship with real rates saw its price drop 0.5% and investors sold out of long positions. However, we fear that many investors are missing a trick. Inflation is likely to surge in 2017 as prior weak commodity prices fall out of the index and the pro-growth policies that the market is so enthusiastic about start to generate price increases. A conservative Fed is likely to remain reluctant to hike too quickly to ward off these pressures, leading to low real rates. Moreover, the Italian referendum results highlight that political instability is rife and we expect as the US-centric focus of investors to changes in Europe, demand for haven assets will once again rise. Pound climbed 1.3% against the euro, driving US$11.9mn of profit taking. Market hopes of a ‘softer’ exit helped the UK currency rally to a 12 week high after UK Brexit Minister mooted the potential to access the single market post-Brexit for a price. This week the Supreme Court will undertake its hearing to decide whether the British Government can trigger Article 50 without a parliamentary vote. Although the results will not likely be announced until the new year, the uncertainty about whether the High Court judgment will be reversed could be another source of volatility. Second consecutive week of inflows into all-commodity ETPs underscores desire for diversification. As investors took profit on price surges across metals and oil, they built US$51.2mn of positions in diversified baskets. What to watch this week. The ECB may announce whether it is going to extend its QE programme beyond March at its meeting this week. Chinese PMIs, FX reserves, trade and lending data will be assessed to gauge how the world’s largest commodity consumer is faring.

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Director, Commodity Research at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

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OPEC meeting offering false hope?

OPEC meeting offering false hope?

ETF Securities Research – OPEC meeting offering false hope?

Highlights

  • Diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia and Russia prompt hopes for a joint production agreement at the upcoming meeting.
  • Any agreement is likely to be superficial and fail to accelerate rebalancing of the global oil market.
  • The CAD and NOK look set to resume their decline against the US Dollar.

Diplomatic attempts lift oil

OPEC returned to centre stage last Tuesday as news of diplomatic efforts made by Saudi Arabia and Russia to implement a production agreement sparked a 5.7% rally in crude benchmarks. The upcoming OPEC meeting, scheduled for the 30th November, is highly anticipated as it could result in a coordinated production cut by the cartel (as agreed earlier in the year in Algiers) and is therefore a pivotal event in determining the future of both oil prices and associated currencies (CAD & NOK). Historically, OPEC members have been poor at keeping to production limits but on this particular occasion obstacles are even larger as many of the member nations are under considerable financial and political strain. Therefore, it is our view that risks to oil prices remain firmly skewed to the downside and it is increasingly likely that the USD/CAD and USD/NOK will continue on their current upward trend to the end of the year.

Deal or no deal

The preliminary agreement at Algiers was for the oil cartel to reduce production to between 32.5 and 33 million barrels per day (mbpd), with Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela exempt from any arrangement. This would translate into a reduction of oil output of 0.6-1.1mbpd from October levels which, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), would help balance the global oil market earlier than their current estimate of Q3 2017. In theory this is a very bullish prospect for oil prices but in practice imposing a coordinated production limit is complicated; particularly when the aim is to also coerce the likes of key non-OPEC oil producers like Russia to participate.

(Click to enlarge)

Firstly, within OPEC, certain members have already started to show signs of foul play, either by demanding exemption or by inflating reported output figures with the hope of building a safety margin into any agreement. For instance, officials from Iraq have clearly stated that they do not intend to reduce production or participate in any agreement, citing their war on the Islamic State (ISIS) as sufficient reason for exemption. Also, in the latest monthly OPEC publication, the difference in reported output between secondary sources and direct sources totalled a positive 0.54mbpd for Iran and Iraq alone, a huge difference. For those nations that have been offered some form of formal exemption or are seeking it, namely Iraq, Nigeria and Libya, increases in
production has been sharp in recent months (see Figure 1) which increases the burden on Saudi Arabia to curb output. Outside of OPEC group, the higher range of oil prices in the second half of this year has caused the number of active oil rigs in the US to increase by 40% since June and production has started to climb from an October low of 8.45mbpd. All these factors mean that curbing output meaningfully is going to be difficult for OPEC and so any deal that may emerge from the meeting could merely offer false hope. Potential market optimism that results and spurs a rally in oil prices and oil linked currencies is likely to be short lived and could be seen as an opportunity to establish short positions.

Resistance to prove weak

Since the surprise Trump victory, the US Dollar has rallied strongly against the CAD and the NOK to trade at near short term resistance levels. The USD/CAD is retreating from 1.357, a 50% retracement level from the steep decline earlier in the year, while the USD/NOK is near the top of its recent 8-8.5 range. However, we feel as though both these pairs are on strong upward trends and a failure to reach an agreement in Vienna has potential to trigger moves to the upside beyond these resistance levels.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

EUR Base

ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE)
ETFS Long NOK Short EUR (EUNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long EUR (NOEU)

GBP Base

ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA)
ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB)
ETFS Long NOK Short GBP (GBNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long GBP (NOGB)

USD Base

ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD)
ETFS Long NOK Short USD (LNOK)
ETFS Short NOK Long USD (SNOK)

3x

ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3)
ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5)
ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5)

Currency Baskets

ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM)
ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.

*All figures quoted are sourced from Bloomberg unless stated otherwise.

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Loonie set for near term tumble

Loonie set for near term tumble

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – Loonie set for near term tumble

Highlights

  • The tentative agreement reached by OPEC last Wednesday has sent oil prices to the top of their recent range and lent support to oil linked currencies.
  • In practice the production limit will be hard to implement and oil prices will likely retrace gains in coming months.
  • The CAD looks to continue its downtrend as extended positioning corrects lower and monetary conditions are eased.
  • OPEC surprises markets
Global crude benchmarks and oil linked currencies jumped last Wednesday on news that members of OPEC had tentatively agreed to implement a production target for the first time in seven years. Both commodity and currency markets responded positively to the surprise deal that was viewed broadly as an unlikely prospect due to long standing differences between key group members, Saudi Arabia and Iran. While the deal certainly marks a shift in stance of the oil exporting group, we do not believe it is enough to sustain support for the CAD which is at risk from a confluence of bearish factors, specifically underwhelming economic performance, stretched speculative positioning and technical resistance. We therefore see current levels as an attractive point to gain long exposure to the USD/CAD and EUR/CAD currency pairs which are set to benefit from near term oil weakness.

Symbolic but not practical

We believe the uplift in the oil market provided by the latest OPEC agreement will not last for long as the practicalities of the arrangement and wider concerns over slowing global oil demand growth keep oil prices contained. The deal itself, while an important move symbolically, did not provide a definite promise to remove a significant amount of output from the global oil market (removing anywhere from 200-700k barrels per day (bpd)) and requires the implementation of country level quotas. This is a large and politically sensitive task and is unlikely to be completed before the next OPEC meeting in November. In addition, the deal failed to provide clarity over conditions for countries under duress such as Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya where production is currently far below capacity, but has the potential to increase in the interim. Thus, support from oil prices is therefore likely to be absent for the CAD in the coming months. (Click to enlarge)

CAD underperforms NOK

While both the NOK and CAD are heavily linked to the oil price, prospects for the two currencies have recently diverged. Latest growth and inflation data from Norway has surpassed the expectations of its central bank, causing the Norges bank’s Executive Board to deliver a more hawkish policy message and raise its projected rate path. In contrast, lacklustre inflation, retail sales and manufacturing data has prompted a more dovish tone from the Bank of Canada (BoC), which makes it increasingly likely to ease monetary policy at its upcoming meetings. This has been reflected in the relative outperformance of the NOK in the past month, which has rallied by 2.8% relative to CAD on a trade weighted basis (see Figure 1).

Positioning stretched

The USD/CAD and EUR/CAD are on strong longer term upward trends (CAD weakening) which look well placed to continue. Net speculative positioning underpinning the CAD is hovering at record highs and looks increasingly subject to a correction. A fall in oil prices or further easing by the BoC could see CAD longs (which are at the strongest level in two years) fall sharply and shorts gather momentum, exacerbating any rise in USD/CAD and EUR/CAD. Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs: Currency ETPs EUR Base ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD) ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE) GBP Base ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA) ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB) USD Base ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD) ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD) 3x ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3) ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3) 5x ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5) ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5) Currency Baskets ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM) ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)

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