Politiken fortfarande en viktig fråga för den spanska aktiemarknaden
Spanien IBEX35
Sveriges största sida om ETF och börshandlade fonder
Mario Draghi har skapat ett monster med sin kreditbubbla och han verkar inte bry sig. Istället säger fler och fler att det är hans mål. För tre månader sedan började den Europeiska centralbanken att köpa företagsobligationer för första gången. Resultaten har varit dramatisk och ibland oroväckande. Effekten har blivit att räntorna har fallit och obligationspriserna har stigit. Världen har blivit helt förvrängd när företagen får betalt för att låna pengar.
Investerare betalar nu bokstavligen de europeiska företagen för att de skall låna pengar. Sanofi, en europeisk läkemedelstillverkare, blev det första icke finansiella företaget att emittera obligationer som ger en negativ ränta. Henkel, en tysk hushållsproduktstillverkare, följde snabbt efter.
Detta verkar ganska galet, men köpare av dessa obligationer kan övertyga sig själva att de inte blir lurade eftersom deras låntagare är säkra företag som kommer att återbetala det mesta av de pengar som de lånar.
Det är emellertid mindre klart hur investerare motiverar köp av av skräp-rankade obligationer som lovar ingenting och kommer med stora risker. På grund av den rusning som ECBs obligationsköp har skapat på obligationsmarknaden ger i dag obligationer utgivna av vissa skräp-rankade företag, däribland Peugeot och HeidelbergCement, nu en avkastning under noll. I veckan skrev Bank of America i en analys att banken bedömer att vi snart kommer att få se junk bonds med negativ ränta.
Betyder detta att de europeiska high yield obligationerna blivit mindre riskfyllda? Nej, fundamenta har i själva verket försämrats enligt Bank of America strateger som säger att investerarna just nu återhämtat sig i en lägre omfattning än tidigare från fallerande obligationspriser.
De europeiska centralbankerna verkar emellertid inte alltför oroliga för dessa störningar, istället verkar de mer angelägna att se hur dessa händelser skall generera tillväxt. ECB överväger att utöka sitt program, eventuellt med nya tillgångsklasser. Problemet är att ECB kan komma att få mer än det önskat sig. Bank of Americas strateger varnar för en snabb ökning av hävstångseffekter, vilket kan leda till nedgraderingar, vilket skulle göra att vissa obligationer inte skulle vara berättigade till köp i ECBs obligationsköpsprogram.
Under tiden, europeiska centralbankerna verkar ha skapat en Alice i Underlandet kreditmarknad som är infekterat resten av världen. Det skickar investerare till tillväxtmarknader och USA, där företagsobligationsräntorna är de högsta någonsin i förhållande till liknande europeiska företagsobligationsräntor. Det är särskilt anmärkningsvärt eftersom de amerikanska företagsobligationsräntorna har nära till all-time lows själva.
Denna dynamik tvingar investerare världen över att komma upp med nya ramarna för logik på en fortsättning av ECBs stimulansprogram. I en annan, mer perfekt värld, skulle företagsobligationer med negativ avkastning inte existera. Ju längre detta pågår, desto svårare blir för ECB att ta sig ur denna situation.
Commodity ETP Weekly – Commodity prices bottoming out
• Silver inflows begin to track gold inflows.
• Surge in oil prices triggered first ETPs outflows since December 2015.
• Price recovery across the metal complex should eventually translate into flows.
Commodity ETPs are witnessing another bipolarised week of flows dominated by net inflows into precious metals and net outflows out of energy commodities.
Central bank meetings in Europe and the US this month will be highly followed as the outcome from both is likely to set the band in which commodities will trade for the rest of the year.
Silver inflows begin to track gold inflows. Last week investors continued to pile into gold ETPs for the 9th consecutive week, recording inflows of US$79.2mn. The price of gold rose 1.2% over the past week, crossing US$1,280/oz. on Friday as US market opened. Buoyant US non-farm payroll for February combined with an upward revision of December and January payroll data failed to weigh on gold prices as one would expect. Strong labour market data signals the US economy is recovering and is likely to increase the odds for another rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on March 16. While expectations of rate hikes usually weigh on gold price, heightened uncertainty in cyclical markets has seen demand for gold and its price rise as investors look for safety in a haven asset. While silver has failed to follow gold prices higher, inflows last week were more comparable, with US$72.8mn of inflows into silver.
Surge in oil prices triggered first ETPs outflows since December 2015. Last week saw Brent and WTI surging 5% and 4.5% respectively. Both benchmarks were trading around their two-month highs for most of the week. Surging oil prices seems to indicate that the reduction of oil production in the US combined with keys OPEC members’ decision to freeze production at January levels could be sufficient to reduce the oversupply on the global oil market. Despite larger-than-expected stockpile, US oil production declined for the 6th consecutive week the level last seen in November 2014, lending support to oil prices.
Price recovery across the metal complex should eventually translate into flows. All metals including gold have reached multi-year lows (although at different times) within the past 6 months and they have all recovered since, posting an average return of 17% from their respective lows. Nickel saw the most impressive rally, up 19% over the past 3 weeks. With the exception of palladium, futures net long positions over the past month rose by 62% on average. Gold saw the largest increase in net long positions, up 160%, the result of rising long positions and falling short positions. It looks like the excessive pessimism toward metals is fading away with industrial metals basket ETPs recording positive flows for the third consecutive week.
Key events to watch this week. All eyes will be on Mario Draghi and the ECB meeting this Thursday as the central bank previously indicated that further action will be taken to support the Eurozone economy if necessary. Poor economic data in the euro area combined with recent European bank rout has increased investor expectations that the ECB will decide to ease policy further. A disappointing Q4 GDP data reading for the Eurozone due two days before the meeting will only add pressure on the ECB to deliver. Trade balance data for key countries will provide an update on global demand for commodities.
Edith Southammakosane, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Markets see-saw as China slows down but US surges ahead
• Commodities: Palladium and Platinum diverge after Volkswagen emissions scandal.
• Equities: Global markets retrace losses after US GDP data surprises on the upside.
• Currencies: Dollar firmer as stronger US GDP data backs Feds case for a 2015 rate hike.
• ETF Securities will be hosting a Q4 update on the 8 October to look at trends for commodities, equities and currencies – register here to attend
Palladium and Platinum diverge after Volkswagen emissions scandal. Platinum known for deriving 44% of its use in reducing emissions from diesel engines faced the brunt of the scandal in which Volkswagen rigged the software used in its diesel cars to cheat the US emissions test. Palladium benefitted as investors expect consumers to favour gasoline engines. The clean air drive initiative announced by China provided a further boost to palladium as more of the metal will be needed for pollution abatement. In the long term, stringent emissions regulations will require more loadings of PGMs in autocatalysts raising their demand outlook. After rallying to a one month high $1156 troy ounce, gold fell out of favour declining -0.68% after Fed chair Yellen’s comments kept a 2015 rate hike still on the cards. The rise in net gold imports from mainland China reaching a 3 month high and the upcoming wedding and festival season in India remains supportive of demand for the yellow metal.
Global markets retrace losses after US GDP data surprises on the upside. The deterioration in Chinese manufacturing data to a 6-1/2 year low and the emissions scandal by Volkswagen dealt serious blows to the market at the start of the week. However the stronger US GDP data coupled with favourable comments from Fed chair Yellen of a probable rate hike this year renewed investor’s risk appetite, allowing stocks to retrace initial losses for the week. In Europe, a rise in employment for the 11th straight month along with steady PMI data left ECB President Mario Draghi undecided on whether further quantitative easing was warranted. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Q3 earnings season after industrial bellwether Caterpillar slashed 10,000 jobs and warned of an uncertain global economic outlook.
Dollar firmer as stronger US GDP data backs Feds case for a 2015 rate hike. Hawkish comments alluding to a probable rate hike this year by Fed chair Yellen, helped push the dollar up 0.92% for the week. A rise in consumer spending helped the US economy grow faster than expected in the second quarter aiding the case for a rate hike by the Fed. The euro ended the week lower despite a lack of dovish comments from ECB president Mario Draghi and a risk off rally. Norway’s central bank trimmed rates for a second time this year to 0.75%, hinting at the likelihood further rate cuts, in an effort to boost the economy dented by falling oil prices and rising household debt. The loonie reached an 11 year low as uncertainty rose ahead of Canada’s fiercely contested elections less than a month away.
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
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ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Payrolls Data Highlights Policy Divergence
Freezing weather conditions support natural gas prices.
Confirmation of QE sends gold miners lower.
Divergent monetary paths pressures Euro.
Commodities
Freezing weather conditions support natural gas prices. Snowfall and frigid temperatures in the eastern half of the US boosted heating demand for natural gas. A larger-than-expected withdrawal from natural gas inventories last week sent prices higher, with Henry hub gas ending the week up 5.3%. Reports that US crude stocks rose to a record 444.4mn barrels last week failed to prevent WTI prices climbing higher. The US crude benchmark was supported by a release of the Federal Reserve’s beige book which detailed the likely cut in capital expenditures by US oil producers in 2015 as the plunge in oil prices impacts the industry. Carbon prices fell 4.4%, as coal-reliant members of the European parliament posed a potential roadblock to negotiations towards the relief of the current oversupply of allowances in the emissions market.
Equities
Confirmation of QE sends gold miners lower. After reaffirming the launch of quantitative easing, Mario Draghi delivered a relatively upbeat assessment of the Eurozone’s economic prospects. The positive tone sent European bourses rising with the DAX 30 and FTSE MIB climbing 1.6% and 1.1%, respectively. The prospect of stimulus in Europe boosted sentiment and dented safe haven demand for gold resulting in its decline through the psychological US$1,200/oz level. The fall in gold prices caused DAXglobal® Gold Miners Index to fall 4.8%. The strong performance of European stocks pushed volatility lower and the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index to its lowest level this year at 15.3. The MSCI China A Index fell 0.9% as the Chinese premier Li Keqiang reduced the official growth target to 7.0% from 7.5% as the country tackles structural and economic reform.
Currencies
Divergent monetary paths pressures Euro. Last week the prospect of the ECB’s QE programme launch caused the Euro to fall to an eleven and a half year low against the US dollar. These losses were extended on Friday as a strong US non-farm payroll reading increased the likelihood of US rate normalisation starting at the Fed meeting in June. Recent indications that the US economy continues to strengthen brings the timeline for higher interest rates forward. While in Europe the ECB plans to loosen monetary policy and various central banks have put negative interest rates in place to combat deflation. The differing outlooks have sent the Dollar and Euro in opposite directions against other major global currencies, a trend which only looks set to continue.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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General
This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).
Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.
ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.
This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.
Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.
Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.
”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.