Nickel and aluminium ETPs saw inflows as trade-war punishment on industrial metals reprieve
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Nickel and aluminium ETPs saw inflows as trade-war punishment on industrial metals reprieve
Highlight
- Long nickel and aluminium ETPs saw the highest inflows since February 2018 as prices begin to recover.
- Gold ETPs receive first inflows in six weeks
- Turkish woes pressure the Euro
Long gold ETPs received the first inflow in six weeks, amounting to US$26mn. Although gold prices remained lacklustre, some investors are now coming to believe that the price decline has been overdone. We certainly hold that view. Although the US Dollar is strengthening, US Treasury yields have not risen as much as we had expected back in June and US inflation is running at a 6-year high. Overly-subdued investor sentiment for the metal (both in futures and ETP markets) accounts for the poor price performance. If that is now turning a corner, we could see gold prices play catch-up. Our estimated base case is for gold to reach US$1307 by June 2019, up 8% from today’s levels (see Gold outlook). Economic disarray in Turkey, with a sharp Lira depreciation (which had knock-on contagion to the Euro last week), could send investors looking for haven assets. Gold has traditionally played the role of a safe haven asset in many investors portfolios.
Second week of short USD, long EUR ETP inflows likely to lead to disappointment. Last week there were US$5.9mn inflows into Short USD, long EUR ETPs. The prior week there were US$5.6mn of inflows. In the past week the Euro depreciated close to 2% against the US Dollar as investors feared contagion into the European banking system from exposure to Turkish loans.
For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0)207 448 4330
E research@etfsecurities.com
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