I augusti 2017 lanserade Cloud Atlas Investing en ny ETF syftar till att öka investeringarna i Afrika. Denna börshandlade fond erbjuder en diversifierad investering i 50 företag över hela Afrika, med undantag för Sydafrika. Big50 Ex-SA ETF, som listas på JSE, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, erbjuds av Cloud Atlas Investing, ett Johannesburg-baserat kollektivt investeringsprogram.
Cloud Atlas Investing verkar genom 15 afrikanska börser. Dessa inkluderar börserna i Egypten, Mauritius, Kenya, Marocko, Tanzania, Nigeria, Tunisien, Botswana, Namibia, Uganda, Ghana, Zimbabwe och BRVM-börsen i Västafrika.
”Den här nya ETFen erbjuder ett enkelt och säkert sätt att investera i afrikanska marknader och stöder kontinentens tillväxtresa”, säger Donna Nemer, direktör för kapitalmarknaderna på JSE.
Större möjligheter att delta i Afrikas tillväxt
”Eftersom Big50 ex-SA ETF är lämplig för enskilda investerare såväl som institutionella investerare, erbjuder det större möjligheter att delta i Afrikas tillväxt, säger Nemer. ”Eftersom det inte investerar i sydafrikanska företag, erbjuder det lokala investerare en riskspridning.” Utveckla afrikanska marknader
Maurice Madiba, VD och koncernchef för Cloud Atlas Investing, förklarade varför denna ETF designades. ”Vi vill förbättra likviditeten och hjälpa till med att utveckla afrikanska marknader för att investerare ska kunna känna den fulla robustheten hos dessa marknader,” sa han. Investeringsinstrument omfattar aktier i multinationella företag som listas på afrikanska börser och lokala afrikanska företag.
Möjlighet för institutionella investerare
Förutom att ge individer möjlighet att investera i olika afrikanska aktier, gör det också möjligt för institutionella investerare att investera upp till fem procent av fondens kapital i afrikanska investeringar.
”Vi har fått dispens från den sydafrikanska reservbanken för att erbjuda denna ETF till institutionella investerare enligt regel 28. Vi har redan öppnat denna börshandlade fond på detaljhandelsmarknaden och har verkligen planer på att få den institutionella investeraren ombord” Madiba.
Han tillade att denna ETF skulle erbjuda tillväxtutsikter för både enskilda och institutionella investerare.
Detta är den 53: e ETF som är noterad på JSE. Det totala marknadsvärdet på ETF på JSE uppgår till R73 miljarder. ETF-bolag som för närvarande är noterade på JSE inklusive topp 40 aktier, internationella aktier, obligationer, råvaror, flera tillgångsklasser och fastighetsaktier.
Nigerias landspecifika ETF, NGE, stod ut i fredags och steg under tunga volymer före det kommande valet. Det kommande valet kan ge positiva ekonomiska resultat oavsett resultatet. Nigeria klättrar inför presidentvalet vilket är logiskt med tanke på de olika alternativa utfallen,
Global X Nigeria Index ETF (NYSArca: NGE) ökade med 2,6% i fredags. Samtidigt handlades denna börshandlade fond över fyra gånger sin genomsnittliga dagliga volym. NGE har ökat 4,3% under den senaste veckan och 7,9% under den senaste månaden.
Nigeria har lockat tillbaka utländska investerare trots riskerna för den kommande valperioden. Internationella investerare har plockat upp ett års nigerianska statsskuldsväxlar. Dessa ger 15%, vilket bidrog till att stärka den nigerianska nairavalutan, rapporterade Reuters.
På torsdagen auktionerade den nigerianska centralbanken växlar för 321 miljarder naira, eller mer än den hade erbjudit, för att få tillbaka utländska investerare som flydde marknaden i början av cykel med räntehöjningar i USA vilket försvagade nairan.
”Det finns likviditet på marknaden”, sa en trader till Reuters. ”Vi har handlat så lågt som 360,80 naira i veckan. Utländska investerare kommer in. Jag tror inte att de är lika oroade för valet eller premien på avkastning är tillräckligt bra. ”
Nigeria kommer att hålla sitt presidentval den 16 februari.
Några observatörer hävdade att investerare delvis köpte nigerianska obligationer för att kompensera lägre avkastning utomlands, särskilt efter att amerikanska Federal Reserve visade sig ha en dold hållning på räntorna i år. Dessutom antogs det några begränsade politiska förändringar i Nigeria om Muhammadu Buhari vinner valet.
”Om den etablerade vinner, kan status quo förbli och om huvudmotståndet vinner … låter de mer pro-marknaden så investerare har inget att förlora,” sa en annan trader till Reuters.
Den huvudsakliga oppositionskandidaten Atiku Abubakar uppgav att han skulle betrakta en amnesti för misstänkta korruption, privatisera det statliga oljebolaget NNPC och flyta nairavalutan för att locka utländska investerare tillbaka till landet.
Börshandlad fond med fokus på Nigeria rusar på förhoppning om tillväxt
Aktiemarknaden i Nigeria, och den landspecifika börshandlade fonden som spårar börsen i Lagos steg i veckan. Orsaken till detta är att denna börshandlade fond med fokus på Nigeria rusar på förhoppning om tillväxt i landet ekonomi. Investerarna sökte sig åter till aktier efter att stått vid sidlinjerna. Orsaken är förväntningar om högre vinster efter det att Nigerias ekonomi visat tecken på att ta sig ur den recession landet befunnit sig i. Global X Nigeria Index ETF (NYSEArca: NGE) steg med 5,3 procent under onsdagen.
Investerarna fokuserar på konsumentvaror och bankaktier
Investerarna fokuserar på konsumentvaror och bankaktier eftersom dessa tillhör de tidiga vinnarna i konsumtionscykeln. Dessa sektorer bör kunna dra fördel av starkare vinster och ha god möjligheter att göra stora utdelningar. Förhoppningarna kommer efter det att Nigeria under det andra kvartalet 2017 visat tecken på att ta sig ur den recession landet befunnit sig i.
Finanssektorn och konsumentvaror är de två största sektorvikterna i NGEs portfölj. De svarar för 51,4 respektive 36,4 procent vardera av den börshandlade fondens underliggande kapital. Denna ETF har stigit med 27,1 procent sedan årets början, och har med råge tagit igen de kursnedgångar som den drabbades av i början av året. Att aktiekurserna föll då berodde på att landets centralbank lyfte valutakontrollen för utländska investerare.
Mycket har förbättrats
Lukman Otunuga, finansiell expert hos FXTM, argumenterar för att mycket har förändrats till det bättre sedan i februari 2017, tack vare de postiva förändringarna som Central Bank of Nigeria gjorde. Den implementering av NAFEX som CBN gjorde har lett till att likviditeten har förbättrats. Det finns emellertid inte någon slutlig lösning, och det finns fortfarande utrymme för förbättringar. Det finns emellertid anledning att tror att landets regering har lärt sig läxan sedan budgeten 2017. Estimaten för budgeten 2018 är mer realistiska och oljepriset ligger i denna på mer trovärdiga 45 USD per fat. Växelkursen ligger på 305 Naira per USD.
Oljeproduktionen är ett orosmoment
Det som oroar är att under det tredje kvartalet 2017 så uppgick Nigerias oljeproduktion till två miljoner fat olja. Det är sannolikt att OPEC i framtiden kommer att kräva att denna nivå minskas till 1,8 miljoner fat, och då ligger Nigerias produktion 500 000 fat lägre än för ett år sedan. En så pass kraftigt minskad produktion kommer att få en påverkan på landets ekonomi.
Nigeria har nyligen drabbats av en nedgradering av kreditratingföretaget Standard & Poor’s. Vidare har landets centralbank beslut att släppa den fasta valutakursen. Dessa händelser kan ha kopplingar till det svaga oljepriset som utgör en av Nigerias största exportintäkter. Ett stabiliserat oljepris bör gynna Nigerias ekonomi.
ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Oil suffers worst weekly outflows in six years
Investors take profit on OPEC-led oil price rally.
Gold ETP outflows of US$274mn were highest since July 2015.
Profit-taking on long GBP, short EUR positions after Pound rallies on hopes of a softer Brexit.
Oil ETP outflows reach highest level since August 2010 as investors take profit on a 15% surge in prices. There were US$126mn of outflows from long oil ETPs. OPEC’s landmark deal to cut production for the first time in eight years drove the market euphoria as participants responded to the headline cut of 1.2 million barrels per day. However, anyone looking at the details can see that OPEC is not committing to cutting 1.2 million barrels from today’s levels. The reference figures from which they are cutting from are inflated (compare to what was produced in October). The main flaw of the agreement is that it exempts Nigeria, Libya and suspends Indonesia, but formulates a production target that includes them. It also contingent on non-OPEC countries cutting 0.6 mbd, which we consider very ambitious. ETP investors have taken profit as it is very likely that disappointment will sink in after the market has assessed the details.
Outflows from gold ETPs accelerated to US$274mn – the highest since July 2015 – as the Fed’s December rate hike looms. A string of positive economic data from the US including an upward revision to GDP, a surge in consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing reaching a 5-month high and positive labour market data makes a December rate hike a near certainty. Gold’s traditional inverse relationship with real rates saw its price drop 0.5% and investors sold out of long positions. However, we fear that many investors are missing a trick. Inflation is likely to surge in 2017 as prior weak commodity prices fall out of the index and the pro-growth policies that the market is so enthusiastic about start to generate price increases. A conservative Fed is likely to remain reluctant to hike too quickly to ward off these pressures, leading to low real rates. Moreover, the Italian referendum results highlight that political instability is rife and we expect as the US-centric focus of investors to changes in Europe, demand for haven assets will once again rise.
Pound climbed 1.3% against the euro, driving US$11.9mn of profit taking. Market hopes of a ‘softer’ exit helped the UK currency rally to a 12 week high after UK Brexit Minister mooted the potential to access the single market post-Brexit for a price. This week the Supreme Court will undertake its hearing to decide whether the British Government can trigger Article 50 without a parliamentary vote. Although the results will not likely be announced until the new year, the uncertainty about whether the High Court judgment will be reversed could be another source of volatility.
Second consecutive week of inflows into all-commodity ETPs underscores desire for diversification. As investors took profit on price surges across metals and oil, they built US$51.2mn of positions in diversified baskets.
What to watch this week. The ECB may announce whether it is going to extend its QE programme beyond March at its meeting this week. Chinese PMIs, FX reserves, trade and lending data will be assessed to gauge how the world’s largest commodity consumer is faring.
Video Presentation
Nitesh Shah, Director, Commodity Research at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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ETF Securities Research – OPEC meeting offering false hope?
Highlights
Diplomatic efforts by Saudi Arabia and Russia prompt hopes for a joint production agreement at the upcoming meeting.
Any agreement is likely to be superficial and fail to accelerate rebalancing of the global oil market.
The CAD and NOK look set to resume their decline against the US Dollar.
Diplomatic attempts lift oil
OPEC returned to centre stage last Tuesday as news of diplomatic efforts made by Saudi Arabia and Russia to implement a production agreement sparked a 5.7% rally in crude benchmarks. The upcoming OPEC meeting, scheduled for the 30th November, is highly anticipated as it could result in a coordinated production cut by the cartel (as agreed earlier in the year in Algiers) and is therefore a pivotal event in determining the future of both oil prices and associated currencies (CAD & NOK). Historically, OPEC members have been poor at keeping to production limits but on this particular occasion obstacles are even larger as many of the member nations are under considerable financial and political strain. Therefore, it is our view that risks to oil prices remain firmly skewed to the downside and it is increasingly likely that the USD/CAD and USD/NOK will continue on their current upward trend to the end of the year.
Deal or no deal
The preliminary agreement at Algiers was for the oil cartel to reduce production to between 32.5 and 33 million barrels per day (mbpd), with Nigeria, Libya and Venezuela exempt from any arrangement. This would translate into a reduction of oil output of 0.6-1.1mbpd from October levels which, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), would help balance the global oil market earlier than their current estimate of Q3 2017. In theory this is a very bullish prospect for oil prices but in practice imposing a coordinated production limit is complicated; particularly when the aim is to also coerce the likes of key non-OPEC oil producers like Russia to participate.
(Click to enlarge)
Firstly, within OPEC, certain members have already started to show signs of foul play, either by demanding exemption or by inflating reported output figures with the hope of building a safety margin into any agreement. For instance, officials from Iraq have clearly stated that they do not intend to reduce production or participate in any agreement, citing their war on the Islamic State (ISIS) as sufficient reason for exemption. Also, in the latest monthly OPEC publication, the difference in reported output between secondary sources and direct sources totalled a positive 0.54mbpd for Iran and Iraq alone, a huge difference. For those nations that have been offered some form of formal exemption or are seeking it, namely Iraq, Nigeria and Libya, increases in
production has been sharp in recent months (see Figure 1) which increases the burden on Saudi Arabia to curb output. Outside of OPEC group, the higher range of oil prices in the second half of this year has caused the number of active oil rigs in the US to increase by 40% since June and production has started to climb from an October low of 8.45mbpd. All these factors mean that curbing output meaningfully is going to be difficult for OPEC and so any deal that may emerge from the meeting could merely offer false hope. Potential market optimism that results and spurs a rally in oil prices and oil linked currencies is likely to be short lived and could be seen as an opportunity to establish short positions.
Resistance to prove weak
Since the surprise Trump victory, the US Dollar has rallied strongly against the CAD and the NOK to trade at near short term resistance levels. The USD/CAD is retreating from 1.357, a 50% retracement level from the steep decline earlier in the year, while the USD/NOK is near the top of its recent 8-8.5 range. However, we feel as though both these pairs are on strong upward trends and a failure to reach an agreement in Vienna has potential to trigger moves to the upside beyond these resistance levels.
Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:
Currency ETPs
EUR Base
ETFS Long CAD Short EUR (ECAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long EUR (CADE)
ETFS Long NOK Short EUR (EUNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long EUR (NOEU)
GBP Base
ETFS Long CAD Short GBP (GBCA)
ETFS Short CAD Long GBP (CAGB)
ETFS Long NOK Short GBP (GBNO)
ETFS Short NOK Long GBP (NOGB)
USD Base
ETFS Long CAD Short USD (LCAD)
ETFS Short CAD Long USD (SCAD)
ETFS Long NOK Short USD (LNOK)
ETFS Short NOK Long USD (SNOK)
3x
ETFS 3x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA3)
ETFS 3x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE3)
5x
ETFS 5x Long CAD Short EUR (ECA5)
ETFS 5x Short CAD Long EUR (CAE5)
Currency Baskets
ETFS Bullish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (SCOM)
ETFS Bearish USD vs Commodity Currency Basket Securities (LCOM)
*All figures quoted are sourced from Bloomberg unless stated otherwise.
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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.
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The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
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Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks.
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