Etikett: Nitesh Shah

Guldpriset inför en återhämtning

Guldpriset inför en återhämtning ETFer Börshandlade fonderSåväl banker som mäklarhus har sänkt sina genomsnittliga guldprognoser för detta år och 2019. Prognossänkningen skedde efter att den gula ädelmetallen nådde sin lägsta nivå på 19 månaders i augusti. En nyligen genomförd undersökning från Reuters visar emellertid att de förväntar sig att guldkursen skall nå en blygsam återhämtning. Undersökningen visar att guldpriset kommer att bli genomsnittligt 1 273 dollar per ounce 2018 och 1 300 USD 2019. I undersökningen deltog 39 analytiker och handlare som alltså tror att Guldpriset inför en återhämtning.

I en liknande undersökning som genomfördes för tre månader sedan visade resultatet på $ 1 301 för detta år och $ 1,325 för 2019.

Tråkig utveckling

Guld har drabbats av några torriga månader och guldpriset sjönk från 1 366,07 kr i januari till så lågt som 1 1199,96 USD i augusti. Detta eftersom en förstärkt amerikansk dollar gjorde guld dyrare för köpare med andra valutor och stigande aktiemarknader och amerikanska räntor gav bättre avkastning.

Guldpriset har åter stigit tillbaka till omkring 1 225 dollar, en uppgång som skett efter vassa fall på de globala aktiemarknaderna de senaste veckorna. Dessa börsnedgångar har återupplivat intresset för bullion som en säker plats att parkera tillgångar.

”Guldpriserna ligger fortfarande under sina fundamentalt motiverade nivåer. Detta gäller speciellt om den nuvarande förändringen av riskapptiten bibehålls” säger Christopher Louney vid Royal Bank of Canada (RBC).

Guldpriset

Ökade ekonomiska och politiska risker

Ekonomiska och politiska risker är större, vilket borde gynna guld, säger ETF Securities analytiker Nitesh Shah. ”Det finns ingen brist på geopolitiska problem . Italiens skuldsättning och brist på en lönsam budget, osäkerhet kring Brexit-förhandlingar, osäkerhet kring USA: s politik efter amerikanska midtermval är några av riskerna”, sa han.

Börshandlade fonder ökar sitt innehav av guld

Aptiten för guld från börshandlade fonder stiger åter efter det att desa ETFer minskade innehavet med nästan 10 procent, eller 5,4 miljoner ounces, mellan mitten av maj och början av oktober.

Början av en ompositionering av spekulativa investerare som hade ökat upp satsningar på lägre priser på Comex-börsen till rekordnivåer är också positivt.

Hastigheten måste dock kompenseras av styrkan i den amerikanska ekonomin och dollarn, vilket ökade när aktierna sjönk. De amerikanska räntorna stiger fortfarande, säger Harry Tchilinguirian på BNP Paribas och att förutsäga guldpriserna kommer att falla nästa år. Han avviker alltså om att Guldpriset inför en återhämtning.

Högre räntor skadar guldpriset

Högre räntor skadar guld eftersom det pressar upp obligationsräntorna, dämpar överklagandet av icke-avkastande guld och tenderar att öka värdet på dollarn.

Undersökningens respondenter nedgraderade också sina utsikter för silverpriset och förutspådde ett genomsnittligt pris på 15,80 dollar per ounce i år och 16,40 dollar i 2019. Detta är en nedgång från den tidigare undersökningens prognoser på 16,70 dollar för 2018 och 17,52 dollar för 2019.

Silverpriset

Silver, som används i elektronik såväl som för investeringar, har fallit snabbare än guld i år och handlar nu runt 14,55 dollar per ounce.

Guld/silverförhållandet, eller antalet troy ounce silver som behövs för att köpa ett troy ounce guld, steg i september till 85, den högsta nivån på 23 år

Men analytiker förväntar sig att silver återhämtar sig, trots risken för handelskrig och långsammare ekonomisk tillväxt som kan komma att sänka efterfrågan.

”Silver kommer sannolikt att överträffa guld på grund av bristen på nya gruvor som kommer igång, starka detaljhandelsköp och det faktum att silverpriset vanligtvis överträffar när guldpriserna stiger”, säger Samuel Burman på Capital Economics. ”Vi förväntar oss att kvoten ska sjunka till 76,5 i slutet av 2019”, sa han.

Strongman emerges out of China

Strongman emerges out of China

The two-term limit on China’s president has been abolished. That paves the way for Xi Jinping, the sitting president and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China to become a strongman. While not so good for the country’s institutional framework, “more of the same” could bode well for commodity demand in the short to medium term.

As we wrote about in China Congress: The making of a strongman, Xi Jinping has been using the past few years to purge his competition. Partly under the ruse of a war on corruption he has been frequently replacing officials with his cronies. We predicted that he will try to bend the rules to extend his power beyond his two terms. However, we expected a more subtle placement of one his protégés in the Politburo Standing Committee (the top 7 politicians in the Communist Party), so that in 2022 when his term completes he could rule from behind the scenes. Instead, he has taken the more brazen step of abolishing the two-term rule altogether, so that his indefinite presidency could go unchallenged.

Weakens the institutional framework in China

We believe that this significantly weakens the institutional framework in China and presents a hurdle for reform. As we stated in China Congress: The making of a strongman, maintaining the status quo could place too much emphasis on cyclical economic growth, neglecting the structural reform the country needs. Arbitrary growth targets have led to debt levels in the country rising, making the country vulnerable to a shock.

On the flip side, “more of the same” could mean that weaning itself off construction and infrastructure-led growth will be slow, painting a bolder demand picture for commodities. So the short to medium term outlook for commodities may improve. Sustainable growth and a larger role for the market economy – some of tenets of the much-vaunted Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013 – may once again be postponed.

For now, the strength in demand for metals – notwithstanding the temporary disruption due to winter curtailments of manufacturing to improve environmental outcomes – is likely to continue. Meanwhile supply of many metals is likely to remain constrained following several years of subdued capital investment in mines. We expect base metals such as copper, nickel, zinc and lead to remain in a supply deficit in 2018.

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).

Double dip La Niña could drive coffee and cocoa yields higher

Double dip La Niña could drive coffee and cocoa yields higher

We are in the middle of a La Niña event that could see weather patterns alter this year. We had a brief break in a La Niña event that occurred last year, but the natural weather-altering phenomenon has returned quickly (hence referred to a double-dip event). The event could be beneficial to coffee and cocoa growing and hence be price negative.

The map below highlights some of the typical changes in weather patterns that result from La Niña events (relative to normal weather at this time of the year).

Source: NOAA

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the probability of La Niña lasting to end of northern hemisphere winter is 85-90%.


Coffee

A cool southern hemisphere summer could reduce heat damage to Arabica coffee in Brazil, where 45% of the global production of Arabica coffee comes from. Although rains started late in Brazil, flowering of coffee bushes has progressed well, indicating potential for recovery in yields. CONAB, the Brazilian government agency responsible for agricultural and food information, normally the most conservative of forecasters, expects that Arabica output from the country could grow between 22% to 30% this year[1]. Part of the strong growth is due to the “biennial cycles” in Brazil, where yields dip one year and rise the following. In addition, area planted is expected to have risen by 3.8%. But strong growth in yields are expected to come from favourable weather this year.

Cocoa

Cooler weather will also help reduce heat damage to the main cocoa crop that is currently being harvested in Africa. Africa accounts for approximately 70% of global cocoa output. Although wetter weather could damage some of the Indonesian crop (which accounts for less than 10% of global output), the African crop dominates global production.

Although, we caution that not all La Niña years have improved cocoa production, the majority have. The chart below shows how much cocoa production has increased or decreased relative to trend during La Niña years.


[1] ACOMPANHAMENTO DA SAFRA BRASILEIRA: café, V. 5 – SAFRA 2018 – N.1 – Primeiro levantamento | January 2018

 

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).

Forties disruption: the perfect excuse for others to expand oil production

Forties disruption: the perfect excuse for others to expand oil production

A crack in the Forties Pipeline System in the UK North Sea has sent the price of Brent up 1.5% to US$65.70/bbl as the pipeline needs to be closed until repaired. We see this event lending short-term support to Brent oil, but headwinds for oil prices remain in the medium-term. Forties disruption.

The Forties Pipeline System operated by INEOS carries over 40% of UK’s North Sea oil from over 80 offshore fields to refinery facilities onshore. Its capacity of 450,000 barrels per day represents a large proportion of UK production, but only a small portion of the 96 million barrels of global output. Nevertheless, it still accounts for more oil than Gabon and Equatorial Guinea’s (two of OPEC’s smaller members) combined production. Moreover, Forties oil is the largest source of oil in the Brent Benchmark. With Brent widely seen as the global benchmark for oil prices, the impact of a relatively small disruption could have large global consequences (most likely pushing up the price of close substitutes).

The length of the disruption is uncertain

The length of the disruption is uncertain, but could last several weeks. As a result the price-support from this event is likely to be transitory.

US production and exports are expanding strongly in the high price environment of recent weeks and this latest catalyst could push production even higher. Rig counts in the US have been rising for the past eight weeks and crude oil production has risen over the past seven weeks to a level not seen since the early 1970s. We expect US production to continue to hit fresh all-time highs as we head into 2018. The expansion of US oil production will weigh on global prices.

The spread between the US benchmark

At the moment the spread between the US benchmark, West Texan Intermediate, and Brent has widened to the highest level since 2015 when the US had pipeline problems that created a glut in US crude that couldn’t be processed quickly enough. Back in 2015 a wide spread persisted because the US did not allow oil exports to most countries. In December 2015 the rules changed and the US can now export substantial amounts of oil. We expect the availability of US oil to temper gains in the Brent benchmark.

The latest OPEC/non-OPEC deal to curb production until the end of 2018 has a fatal ‘get-out’ clause: the deal will be reviewed in June 2018. The clause likely came as a result of the insistence of Russia and other non-OPEC countries who don’t require such high oil prices to balance their government budgets. This week the U.A.E. and Kuwait have made it clear that they will push for discussion of some sort of exit strategy in June if the market is no longer over-supplied. OPEC’s price support could thus end prematurely.

We thus see the Forties disruption as a short-term price support, with plenty of headwinds to come in the medium term.

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).

OPEC-rally likely to be short-lived

OPEC-rally likely to be short-lived

OPEC together with its non-OPEC partners today decided to extend their production curbs to the end of 2018. With only luke-warm support from Russia heading into the meeting, doubts had formed earlier in the week as to whether the cartel will be able to pull it off.

Oil prices rallied today on the news, but we expect prices to retreat. At current prices, US production will continue to expand, placing downward pressure on both WTI and Brent benchmarks.

At the current pace of expansion in the US, the global supply deficit will be short-lived. We could get back to a production surplus by Q1 2018. Russia’s main concern is that propping up prices through the production curbs has allowed US production to rise with vigour. The US is simply taking market share at the cost of OPEC and it partner countries. That is why Russia was keen to open discussions about an exit strategy.

Inserted into the new agreement is an option to review the current deal in June 2018 in light of prevailing supply and demand conditions. This potentially weakens the deal and we believe will become a source of volatility as the market speculates whether the adjustments will end prematurely in June.

Nigeria and Libya have been pulled into the deal

Nigeria and Libya have been pulled into the deal, capping their output at 2017 levels (although no actual figure has been announced). They had previously been exempt given the scale of lost production due to attack-related outages.

With Brent oil trading close to US$64/bbl, we believe that compliance levels could slip once again as it becomes tempting to produce that little bit more at higher prices. We believe markets will be disappointed with compliance levels in coming months after very restrained production in October.

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).