Tidernas mest berömda valutahandlare

Tidernas mest berömda valutahandlareTidernas mest berömda valutahandlare

De flesta valutahandlare undviker rampljuset. Istället föredrar de att tyst bygga vinster, men ett fåtal har stigit till internationell stjärnstatus. De är inflytande som har haft en djupgående inverkan på branschen. Vi tittar på tidernas mest berömda valutahandlare.

Dessa individer kan fungera som vägledning för valutahandlare i början av sin karriär, såväl som befintliga handlare som vill förbättra sina resultat. Dessa berömda valutahandlare  har gjort stora vinster genom att ta noggrant beräknade risker. Vissa är förvånansvärt ödmjuka medan andra imte alltid är lika ödmjuka med sin framgång. Alla dessa berömda valutahandlare delar en oförklarlig känsla av självförtroende som styr deras ekonomiska resultat. Se valutakurserna här.

George Soros

George Soros föddes 1930. Soros började sin ekonomiska karriär hos Singer and Friedlander i London 1954 efter att ha flytt från Ungern under andra världskriget. Han arbetade vid en serie finansiella företag tills han grundade Soros Fund Management 1970. Företaget har genererat mer än 40 miljarder dollar i vinst de senaste fem decennierna.

Soros steg till internationell berömmelse 1992 som den valutahandlare som krossade Bank of England. Han gjorde en vinst på 1 miljard dollar efter att ha sålt 10 miljarder dollar i brittiska pund sterling (GBP). Den 16 september 1992 drog Storbritannien till följd av denna handel bort pundet från den europeiska valutakursmekanismen efter att inte ha hållit sig det obligatoriska handelsbandet. Denna händelse kallas nu infamously Black Wednesday.

Denna otroliga handel var en höjdpunkt i Soros karriär och solidifierade hans titel som en av de bästa handlarna hela tiden. Soros är för närvarande en av de trettio rikaste individerna i världen.

Stanley Druckenmiller

Stanley Druckenmiller växte upp i en medelklassfamilj i Philadelphias förorter. Han började sin ekonomiska karriär 1977 som en management trainee vid en Pittsburgh-bank. Han steg snabbt till framgång och bildade sitt företag, Duquesne Capital Management, fyra år senare.

Druckenmiller lyckades sedan med framgång förvalta pengar åt George Soros i flera år. I sin roll som ledande portföljchef för Quantum Fund mellan 1988 och 2000 blomstrade hans karriär.

Druckenmiller arbetade också med Soros på den ökända Bank of England-handeln, som lade grunden för hans entré till stjärnvärlden. Hans berömmelse intensifierades när han presenterades i den bästsäljande boken The New Market Wizards, som publicerad 1994. År 2010 efter att ha överlevt den ekonomiska konjunkturen 2008 stängde han sin hedgefond och medgav att han var nedslagen av det ständiga behovet att upprepa sitt framgångsrika Track record.

Andrew Krieger

Andrew Krieger började på Bankers Trust i 1986 efter att ha lämnat en position hos Solomon Brothers. Han förvärvade ett omedelbart rykte som en framgångsrik valutahandlare och företaget belönade honom genom att öka sin kapitalgräns till 700 miljoner dollar, betydligt mer än den normala gränsen på 50 miljoner dollar. Denna kreditgräns gav honom en perfekt position för att dra nytta av kraschen den 19 oktober 1987 (Black Monday).

Krieger fokuserade på Nya Zeeland dollar (NZD), som han trodde var sårbar för utförsäljningar som en del av en global panik i finansiella tillgångar. Han tillämpade den extraordinära hävstången på 400: 1 för sin redan höga handelsgräns. Det slutade med att han förvärvade en kort position som var större än Nya Zeelands penningmängd. Som en följd av den här briljanta handeln skapade han 300 miljoner dollar i vinst för sin arbetsgivare. Året därpå lämnade han företaget med 3 miljoner dollar i fickan från handeln.

Bill Lipschutz

Bill Lipschutz började handla samtidigt som han studerade på Cornell University i slutet av 1970-talet. Under den tiden fick han 12 000 USD att växa till 250 000 USD. Men han förlorade hela insatsen efter ett dåligt handelsbeslut. Denna förlust lärde honom en svår lektion om riskhantering som han bar under hela sin karriär. 1982 började han arbeta för Solomon Brothers medan han tog sin MBA-examen.

Lipschutz migrerade till Salomons nybildade valutahandelsavdelning just när valutamarknaderna exploderades i popularitet. Han var en omedelbar framgång och tjänade 300 miljoner dollar till företaget 1985. Han blev den huvudsakliga handlaren för företagets massiva valutakonto från år 1984 och behöll den positionen till sin avgång 1990. Han har haft anställning som direktör för portföljförvaltning vid Hathersage Capital Management sedan 1995.

Bruce Kovner

Bruce Kovner, född 1945 i Brooklyn, New York, gjorde inte sin första handel innan 1977 när han var 32 år gammal. Han lånade mot sitt personliga kreditkort vid den tiden för att köpa kontrakt på sojabönsterminer och nettade en vinst på 20 000 dollar. Han gick därefter till Commodities Corporation som en råvaruhandlare, där han gjorde miljoner i vinst och fick ett solidt rykte inom industrin.

Han grundade Caxton Alternative Management 1982 och omvandlade den till en av världens mest framgångsrika hedgefonder, med mer än 14 miljarder dollar i tillgångar. Fondens vinst- och förvaltningsavgifter, fördelade mellan råvaru- och valutapositioner, gjorde Kovner en av de största aktörerna i Forex-världen tills han gick i pension 2011.

Slutsats

De fem mest kända forexhandlarna delar liknande egenskaper som självförtroende och en otrolig aptit för risk.

Kiwi downtrend to prevail

Kiwi downtrend to prevail

Trade Idea – Foreign Exchange – Kiwi downtrend to prevail

NZD decline pauses

Signs are emerging that the momentum that has sustained the yearlong rally in the NZD has started to take a marked turn. The trade weighted Kiwi has fallen 2.7% in the past six weeks as dovish domestic monetary policy and declining support from dairy prices has put the currency under pressure. In addition, the recent climb in developed market sovereign yields has tempered support for the NZD from carry trades, investments that profit from widening interest rate differentials between the NZD and other currencies (see Figure 1). While better than expected Q3 inflation numbers have provided the NZD/USD and NZD/EUR with a small boost, we still believe the downward trend is likely to continue, with current levels offering an attractive entry point for tactical investors. A further cut to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) official cash rate at the monetary policy meeting in November could be the catalyst for the next leg lower for the NZD.
(click to enlarge)

Bearish factors weigh in

At the latest monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) refrained from cutting interest rates but made it clear that “further policy easing will be required”. The New Zealand economy has benefited from strong inward migration and healthy growth, but headline inflation remains at multi-decade lows, in part due to the strength of its own currency. As outlined in a speech by the RBNZ assistant governor, John McDermott, last week the central bank’s concern is that soft headline inflation figures will feed into “expectations of future inflation” and “weigh on future actual inflation”. While Q3 inflation of 0.2% impressed markets, on an absolute basis it remains lacklustre, so we expect the RBNZ to maintain its dovish inclination and cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting on the 9th November. Lower rates will weigh on the relative rate differential between the NZD and its developed currency counterparts and keep the NZD under pressure.

Strong resistance to come

The NZD/USD is currently hovering between its recently established downward trend line at around the 0.721 level and its 100 day moving average (DMA) at 0.718. These levels have significance as they acted as key support points over recent months and will prove difficult for the currency pair to breach without a strong impetus. Should the currency pair turn lower it is likely to run into support at its July 25th low at around 0.696, 3.9% below current levels. For the NZD/EUR, the technical picture is less compelling at current levels but a further move to 0.66 would provide an attractive point to gain short exposure as this resistance has failed to be significantly penetrated since May of last year. Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

EUR Base ETFS Long NZD Short EUR (EUNZ) ETFS Short NZD Long EUR (NZEU) GBP Base ETFS Long NZD Short GBP (GBNZ) ETFS Short NZD Long GBP (NZGB) USD Base ETFS Long NZD Short USD (LNZD) ETFS Short NZD Long USD (SNZD)

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”). FXL is regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission. This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors. The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit. Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks. Securities issued by FXL are direct, limited recourse obligations of FXL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith. The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley, and Morgan Stanley bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley to determine whether Morgan Stanley’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley.

Kiwi strength to fade on further easing

Kiwi strength to fade on further easing

Market Insight – Foreign Exchange – Kiwi strength to fade on further easing

Optimistic Wheeler supports NZD

Last week Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor, Graeme Wheeler, struck a surprisingly optimistic tone at the bank’s monetary policy meeting, holding off on any further rate cuts and painting a far better picture of the global economy and the domestic inflationary outlook than three months ago. The improved tone of the meeting and decision to maintain the status quo boosted the NZD on the day and contributed to a wider 3.8% rally experienced since the start of June (on a trade weighted basis). Recent NZD strength can be attributed to the relatively high interest rate that New Zealand offers when compared with developed market counterparts, as foreign central banks maintain ultra-loose monetary policy measures in the face of subdued inflationary pressures. Currency strength has potential to neutralise the impact of low interest rates on improvements in domestic inflation which could force the RBNZ to pursue a more aggressive easing path than currently assumed.

Risks to RBNZ projections

In its second monetary policy statement of the year, the RBNZ presented a risk scenario in which a stronger NZD weighs on inflation by making imports cheaper and consumers more prone to switching away from domestically produced goods and services to imports. In such an event, the RBNZ assumes that more aggressive cuts to interest rates will be needed to ensure inflation settles around the 2% level in the medium term. This risk may already be in play, with the current trade weighted level of the NZD 3.9% higher than assumed the RBNZ’s scenario analysis (see Figure 1). Should recent NZD strength be reflected in weak Q2 inflation data scheduled for release on the 17th July, then the NZD may come under pressure against the US Dollar, where core inflationary pressures and rate prospects are improving.

NZD/USD to face resistance

The NZD/USD exchange rate is trading at the highest levels for the past twelve months, but has struggled to sustain an increase beyond the 0.71 level that it reached on the day of the RBNZ meeting (9th June). Going forward, should the NZD/USD test this level again there is potential for it to run into some resistance. *All figures quoted are sourced from Bloomberg unless stated otherwise.

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Kiwi strength sustainable?

Kiwi strength sustainable?

Market Insight – Foreign Exchange – Kiwi strength sustainable?

Surprise cut fails to halt NZD rally

On March 10th the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised markets with a 25bp interest rate cut, citing international weakness and falling inflation expectations as key drivers. Even with the element of surprise, the move failed to halt the NZD’s recent rally, with the currency appreciating a further 2.1%* in the following fortnight on a trade weighted basis, contributing to a broader 5.8%* rise over the past seven months. The NZD has been a key beneficiary of improving risk sentiment and growing demand for high-yielding assets; with its domestic government bonds offering the best return of the G10 currency group (see Figure 1). However, the NZD/USD currency pair is approaching the peak of its recent trading range and the RBNZ appears likely to implement further monetary easing measures at its upcoming meetings; factors which, in the short term, may see the NZD correct lower.

Figure 1

(Click to enlarge)

Falling inflation expectations arouses concern

The recent strength of the NZD has surpassed the expectations of the RBNZ by some margin (with the trade weighted exchange rate sitting 4% higher than December projections) and is exacerbating central bank concern that falling inflation could embed itself in expectations. The latest monetary report revealed that results from business and consumer surveys monitored by the RBNZ indicate that inflation expectations have experienced a “material decline” in recent months (Figure 2); stoking fears that weakness could feed through to wage setting negotiations and trigger a deflationary spiral.

At the press conference following the monetary policy announcement, the RBNZ Deputy Governor identified the deterioration in inflation expectations as the “primary motive” behind the decision to cut rates in March. These concerns increase the importance of Q1 inflation numbers due on April 17th, as a poor reading will increase the likelihood of further interest rate cuts at the RBNZ’s upcoming meetings, which will likely place the NZD under pressure.

Figure 2

(Click to enlarge)

Top of recent range

A combination of dovish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, and NZD strength has pushed the NZD/USD currency pair to the higher end of its recent trading range. From a technical perspective, since falling through the 0.69 level in June of last year the NZD/USD has struggled to breach this level for a prolonged period and so further gains to the upside appear unlikely.

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

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New Chinese FX reforms prompts caution across asset classes

New Chinese FX reforms prompts caution across asset classes

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – New Chinese FX reforms prompts caution across asset classes

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Highlights


•    Precious metals rally as industrial commodities slide on negative Chinese sentiment.
•    European stocks sell-off as China reforms hit luxury goods and auto sectors.
•    Chinese Renminbi devalued by nearly 5% as new reforms implemented.

The decision by the Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) to devalue its currency by a cumulative 5% last week, the most on record, and to change its fixing methodology for CNY caused a negative reaction across asset classes. Investors became more defensive, reducing positions in cyclical assets. Commodity sectors exposed to China, like energy and industrial metals, saw prices slide in a knee-jerk reaction as a result. USD weakness helped commodity markets rebound, as expectations of an interest rate hike began to be pushed further back in 2015. Many commodity prices initially declined by more than the change in the CNY/USD rate, indicating a sentiment driven change rather than a fundamental one.

Commodities

Precious metals rally as industrial commodities slide on negative Chinese sentiment. WTI and Brent crude oil benchmarks fell 5.47% and 2.47%, respectively reaching the lowest level in over six years, with the devaluation of the CNY thought by many investors to be a signal of declining future demand. Significant negative sentiment over the outlook for Chinese economic growth appears to be priced in to a range of commodity markets, particularly energy and industrial metals sectors. We expect the commodity price weakness to largely transitory many prices initially declining by more (in USD terms) than the devaluation of the CNY/USD rate, indicating a sentiment driven change rather than a fundamental one. Gold and silver were the largest beneficiaries of the China FX decision, as some risk aversion took hold as investor sentiment waned.

Equities

European stocks sell-off as China reforms hit luxury goods and auto sectors. European equity benchmarks posted losses early in the trading week, in line with other major global bourses, as investors digested the potentially negative implications of a weaker Renminbi for the Chinese economy. Sectors like materials, luxury goods and autos were some of the worst affected. The surprisingly weaker Q2 GDP numbers from Germany and France also adversely affected investor sentiment. In contrast, the Chinese sharemarkets didn’t overreact to the news as many other bourses did, posting gains for the week, despite weaker-than expected numbers on industrial production and retail sales.

Currencies

Chinese Renminbi devalued by nearly 5% as new reforms implemented. The significant policy change was to set the new Renminbi fixing rate at the previous day’s closing spot CNY rate. The PBOC’s move allows greater exchange rate flexibility and transparency of CNY pricing in its ongoing reform of the Renminbi and was not intended to be a ‘currency war’. We feel it shows progress towards a more market determined rate and is beneficial for its IMF SDR aspirations despite the IMF noting that the Chinese policy change has ‘no direct implications’ for its SDR review. Both the AUD and NZD lost ground on the markets expectations of more expensive exports to China crimping demand. Further softness from these two currencies is expected, with their respective central banks maintaining their easing biases. Meanwhile, the Swedish Krone was the strongest G10 performing G10 currency, after CPI numbers surprised to the upside which could keep the Riksbank from cutting rates at its next meeting.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

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