Six Consecutive Weeks Of Flows Into Long Gold And Oil ETPs

Six Consecutive Weeks Of Flows Into Long Gold And Oil ETPs

Six Consecutive Weeks Of Flows Into Long Gold And Oil ETPs. With US$35.0mn of inflows last week, ETF Securities long gold ETPs have seen their longest stretch of consecutive positive flows since October 2012

Long WTI ETP inflows rise to US$17.0mn, the highest in four months, while short WTI ETPs see their largest outflow since November 2013

ETFS Corn (CORN) sees highest inflow since March 2014

ETFS Wheat (WEAT) continued to see its 14th consecutive week of inflows

Profit taking drives flows out of platinum group metal (PGM) ETPs

Six consecutive weeks of flows into long gold and oil ETPs highlight investors’ concern over geopolitical events. The US Defense Secretary declared the terrorist group, Islamic State, to be the most dangerous threat that the US has faced in years. A growing sense that the conflict in the Middle East will be a long, drawn-out affair has led investors to expand their holdings of defensive assets. However, the price of gold fell last week, as policy setters at the central banks of the UK and US appear to be more open to raising interest rates.

With US$35.0mn of inflows last week, ETF Securities long gold ETPs have seen their longest stretch of consecutive positive flows since October 2012. The sixth week of inflows, despite modest price performance, highlights the extent to which sentiment towards gold has changed since last year when investors in ETPs and futures markets were abandoning the metal in droves. Investors are rebuilding the hedges into their portfolios after having taken them off in 2013.

Long WTI ETP inflows rise to US$17.0mn, the highest in four months, while short WTI ETPs see their largest outflow since November 2013. While Brent ETPs have been the main beneficiary of rising geopolitical risk, seeing 11 consecutive weeks of inflows, WTI ETPs are gaining favour as the price of the benchmark remains relatively cheap. WTI has seen five consecutive weeks of price declines as inventories remain well above the 5-year average. However, the market could tighten with OPEC and the EIA expecting demand to pick up and US inventories last week fell substantially more than forecast.

ETFS Corn (CORN) sees highest inflow since March 2014. Bargain hunting drove US$4.6mn of inflows into the ETP as expectations of record yields and production have beaten the price down to the lowest since 2010. However, with near-perfect conditions completely priced-in, a small disruption to weather conditions could drive prices upwards. ETFS Wheat (WEAT) continued to see its 14th consecutive week of inflows, attracting US$0.6mn last week as the price of wheat gained 1.7%. Wheat prices are also close to their lowest since 2010, driven by expectations of a bumper crop in the US. Last week however, Ukraine finally confirmed that conflict affected regions will not be able to export as much as normal and a poor crop is expected in France, which will both help tighten the global market.

Profit taking drives flows out of platinum group metal (PGM) ETPs. With year-to-date gains of 22.5% and 4.6% for palladium and platinum, respectively, many investors feel like the best of the rally is over. Although platinum fell 3.3% last week, reports of mine closures in Zimbabwe and rising Chinese imports toward the end of the week, could reverse the downtrend. We believe that platinum will rise faster than palladium in coming months, allowing the metal to narrow the recent underperformance. US$105.8mn and US$34.3mn flowed out of ETFS Physical Palladium (PHPD) and ETFS Physical Platinum (PHPT), respectively.

Key events to watch this week. Euro area unemployment and inflation data will be closely watched as the market tries to guess the pace at which the European Central Bank will loosen its policy setting. The second estimate of US Q2 GDP if unchanged or higher, could help consolidate the US dollar’s strength, which would typically weigh on commodity prices.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

For more information contact:
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Gold ETPs See Largest Inflows In Two Years As Ukraine Risks Fail To Dissipate

Gold ETPs See Largest Inflows In Two Years As Ukraine Risks Fail To Dissipate

Gold ETPs See Largest Inflows In Two Years As Ukraine Risks Fail To Dissipate

Last week marked the fifth consecutive week of net inflows into long gold ETPs, with monthly flows the highest in two years as European investors’ watch Russia’s continued meddling in the Ukraine with trepidation. Meanwhile flows into long oil ETPs reached their highest in eight weeks as falling oil prices and continued high political risk in the Middle East attracted investors. Although at the end of last week Russian President Putin offered dovish rhetoric to seek a peaceful resolution in Ukraine and Iraqi prime minister Nouri al-Maliki agreed to step down in a move that could de-escalate the growing tensions between Shiites and minority Sunnis, significant risks remain. Many see Putin’s offering of an olive branch as disingenuous, while the EU’s debate on arming Kurds highlights that the conflict in Iraq is unlikely to be resolved any time soon.

ETF Securities physical gold ETPs saw US$75.5mn of inflows last week, bringing the trailing 4 week total to US$282.6mn, the highest since August 2012. Continuing the trend of the past five weeks, haven demand for gold has surged despite the price only gaining 0.6% in the past month. Investors appear to believe that a number of tail risks are becoming increasing less remote and are seeking hedges. The conflicts in Ukraine, Iraq, Syria and Libya combined with the returning debt problems in Argentina and lacklustre growth in Europe appear to be causing investors to re-assess (or at least hedge) their risky asset allocations.

Long oil ETP inflows rise to US$41.7mn, the highest in eight weeks as lower prices continue to attract investors. While long Brent ETPs have seen 10 consecutive weeks of inflows, long WTI ETPs are now starting to receive interest with US$11.9mn flowing in last week to add to the US$2.1mn the week before. The WTI benchmark slipped 5% over the past month, despite numerous conflicts in oil exporting countries still raging. Investors have been buying into the recent price dip as supply could tighten quickly if these conflicts remain unresolved for too long. Flows into Brent ETPs rose to US$29.8mn, as many perceive this benchmark to react more strongly to non-US geopolitical events.

Inflows into ETFS Daily Leveraged Silver (LSIL) reach 12 week high. Investors bought US$5.0mn of leveraged exposure to silver as the price dipped 1% last week and 6% over the month. With the price of gold and silver having moved in opposite directions in recent weeks, tactical investors have been buying silver in hope of rebound. The medium term price fundamentals look strong. The Silver Institute suggests that silver demand is expected to grow at around 5% per annum between 2014 and 2016, higher than the rate of global growth. Accordingly, we feel that silver’s structural industrial prospects are bright, especially from the electronics and electrical sector.

Weak loan and money supply growth in China set a bearish tone for industrial metals last week. With demand for industrial metals highly sensitive to growth in China, the disappointing loan data from China spooked a number of investors and they withdrew US$5.9mn from ETFS Zinc (ZINC). However, we believe that mine closures and rising demand will drive the next leg of a bull market in zinc to US$2510/tonne from US$2265/tonne currently.

Key events to watch this week. With the Federal Reserve getting closer to finishing its bond-buying programme, investors will be focused on the minutes from its recent meeting to gauge just how quickly the central bank intends to tighten thereafter.

 

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com
 
Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Gold and Oil Back In Favour As Geopolitical Risks Rise

Gold and Oil Back In Favour As Geopolitical Risks Rise

Gold and Oil Back In Favour As Geopolitical Risks Rise. Geopolitical risk took another lurch for the worse last week, with Russia imposing a full ban on food imports and the US intervening in Iraq. While most macro data continues to point to a pick-up in global growth, benefiting cyclical assets, investors remain jittery and largely on the sidelines. With the geopolitical situation likely to remain tense, we expect defensive assets to continue to see strong demand in the near-term.

Gold and oil back in favour as geopolitical risks linger. Total inflows into gold and oil ETPs reached US$223mn and US$82mn respectively over the past month as geopolitical risks in Russia and the Middle East cloud the positive global economic outlook. The US authorised limited air strikes in Iraq last week, while Russia banned imports of food from the EU and the US, increasing risk aversion. While oil production and export facilities in southern Iraq have yet to be affected, a further push by ISIS into the south would likely trigger another spike in oil prices. With the geopolitical situation expected to remain tense, demand for defensive assets is likely to remain strong. Meanwhile, ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG) saw US$8.5mn of outflows as the silver price came under pressure last week. Near-term headwinds are likely to continue to weigh on silver until it is clear that industrial demand is coming through. With the US manufacturing ISM rising to its highest level since 2011 and China demand picking up, we anticipate that industrial demand support will ultimately offset negative pressure from expectations of rising real interest rates.

Copper and aluminium receive combined inflows of US$127mn as investors buy into China’s growth story. While weak China’s import data and heightened geopolitical risks weighed on most industrial metal prices last week, growth in the world’s second largest economy remains robust and with strong government support the industrial metal rally looks set to continue. Stronger US growth combined with a rebound in Chinese manufacturing data and more decisive monetary stimulus in the euro area should continue to be supportive of commodity prices, metals in particular, in the coming months.

Long wheat ETPs receive US$2.7mn of inflows as abundant rainfall in Europe decreased the availability of high quality wheat. Wheat prices reacting strongly to the news and were up 5.9% last week, after having lost over 7% since the beginning of the year. Long cotton ETPs also saw inflows last week, totalling US$2.6mn, on expectations of a drought in Australia, the world’s cotton 3rd largest cotton exporter. At the same time, investors reduced their coffee exposure, with long and leveraged coffee ETPs seeing over US$5mn of outflows, as price plummeted 5.7% last week.

Key events to watch this week. Industrial production statistics for a number of countries will be coming out this week, with China, the US and the Eurozone’s likely to be watched closely. Bank of England Inflation Report will also be looked at by investors, as inflationary pressure might prompt an earlier-than-expected rate hike.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General
This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings
Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.