Råoljeprisetdök efter att det amerikanska-riktmärket nådde en 18 månaders botten då aktörer tittade tillbaka på en eventuellt översåld marknad. Råvaran hamnade också i fokus på det allmänna riskavståndet på marknaden eftersom amerikanska regeringens avstängning, stigande räntor och handelskriget mellan USA och Kina skakar marknaderna och förvärrade bekymmer över den globala tillväxten.
Översåld oljemarknad
”Jag tror att det finns en liten överdrivning till nackdelen i samband med den globala marknadsrisken”, berättade Olivier Jakob, analytiker hos Petromatrix, för Reuters. Jakob hävdade att utsikterna inte är så svaga som många kan tro eftersom OPEC,organisationen av oljeporterande länder har avslöjat sin avsikt att stärka marknaden jämfört med 2016-försäljningen på ett stigande global utbud.
OPEC och dess allierade som Ryssland har kommit till ett beslut att sänka produktionen år 2019 och vända sig därmed mot sitt beslut i juni att pumpa ut mer olja. Koncernen planerar att sänka den dagliga produktionen med 1,2 miljoner fat nästa år.
”De senaste dagarna med säljtrycket på råmarknaden har känt mindre fundamentalt drivna och mer en funktion av den totala marknadsmeltningen som ökad volatilitet i aktiemarknaden och växande makrohänsyn har vägt flera tillgångsklasser”säger analytiker hos Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. sade i analys. ”OPEC + nedskärningar under första kvartalet bör flytta marknadsbalansen till underleverantörer, och om den amerikanska uppströms sektorn sänker kapitalet som investerare hoppas, bör varan i slutändan börja hitta stöd under det nya året, eftersom amerikanska tillväxtfrukter minskas.”
Oil futures curves have been in backwardation – when the closer futures contract can be sold for a higher price than it costs to buy a futures contract with a further expiry date, resulting in a profit for the investor – for most of the past year, driven by perceived tightness in short-term supply1. This has provided investors with ‘roll yield’ on top of the gains made from spot price movements in oil.
While we believe that the oil market is balanced at present, there is supply tightness in specific areas – especially in heavier crudes – and this could be enough to ensure that the oil futures curve remains mostly in backwardation going forward. Here’s a closer look at current oil market supply and demand dynamics.
Oil curve backwardation
Recent curve backwardation has largely been engineered by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Since January 2017, the oil cartel has restricted the supply of oil by assigning its members and partners a quota for the amount of oil that they produce. Although the cartel has historically had a poor history of complying with quotas, this time it has done exceptionally well. Part of the reason for this, is that up until June 2018, each country was allocated an individual quota (rather than a group-wide limit) and this helped to restrict oil supply.
Another reason OPEC has done well in complying with quotas is because of unintended production disruptions. Recently, Venezuela has experienced an economic implosion, and this has impacted oil production significantly. Supply disruptions in Libya and Nigeria have also contributed to OPEC supply volatility.
Can backwardation last?
In June 2018, OPEC abandoned individual country quotas, so the level of quota compliance that we have seen over the past year may not last if the organisation reverts to its old ways. This could explain why the very front of the Brent futures curve went back into contango – when it costs more to buy the new futures contract than the amount received from selling the old futures contract – in July and August. Indeed, Saudi Arabia – the largest OPEC nation – has clearly expanded production since the end of the country-quota system, as have other countries.
After going back to an all-backwardated curve, the short end of the curve is now back in contango, a move underpinned by fears of over supply from increasing rig count in the US, as well as delays in the full implementation of sanctions on Iran. Despite those recent developments, we do not expect them to significantly impact long term supply. While the front end of the curve will remain prone to shifts, we do not see it to durably get back to a mostly contangoed curves.
Figure 1: Year-on-year difference in OPEC oil production
Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, data available as of close 05 October 2018.
Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.
Tightness concentrated in heavy crudes
In relation to supply disruption, supply of the ‘heavier’ crudes is most at risk, in our view. Venezuela, Iran and Canada produce ‘heavy’ (low API gravity), ‘sour’ (high sulphur) crudes and these countries experienced the bulk of supply disruption this year.
Most of the world’s growth in crude oil supply is currently from US tight oil, which is ‘light’ (high API gravity) and ‘sweet’ (low sulphur). So, even though global oil supply is close to balance at the headline level, growth in oil production is uneven, with declines in supply of heavy crudes, and gains in supply of light crudes2.
Moreover, while US tight oil is seeing supply growth, there are limitations to this growth. Infrastructure needs to grow in lock-step with growth in oil production, and infrastructure limitations could slow the pace at which US shale can help satisfy global oil needs.
Demand remains strong for now
Looking at forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for oil looks set to remain healthy, with the IEA expecting oil demand to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2018, and 1.5 mb/d in 2019 (following 1.5 mb/d growth in 2017). Over the medium term, the dearth of capital investment in oil production is likely to lead to tightness if demand continues to remain robust.
Oil futures likely to remain in backwardation
While we believe that the market is in balance at present, there is supply tightness in specific areas and this could be enough to ensure that the futures curve remains mostly in backwardation.
We don’t believe that a new wave of supply is forthcoming as a lack of investment in oil exploration and production should keep supply contained, and it may only take another supply shock to Libya or to Canada to cast doubts on supply. We also think that demand will remain robust, assuming today’s bullish demand expectations are not unfounded.
Source
1 For a full description of backwardation, contango, roll yields, spot return, total return, excess return and collateral yield please see Costs and Performance Tab on our ETPedia page.
2 Energy Information Administration, WisdomTree, data available as of 04 October 2019.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Oljefokuserade fonder stiger när Saudiarabiens produktion faller
Oljepriset, oljefokuserade fonder och råvarurelaterade börshandlade fonder stärktes efter ett oväntat fall i Saudiarabiensråoljeproduktion i juli 2018.
Enligt delegationen för OPEC, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Country, minskade den saudiska råoljeproduktionen till 10,3 miljoner fat per dag i juli jämfört med 10,49 miljoner fat per dag i juni, rapporterar Christopher Alessi för Wall Street Journal.
Analytiker på Commerzbank sa att rapporten om lägre produktion från kartellens största oljeproducent har ”lånat stöd” till priserna. Vidare trodde marknaderna att Saudiarabiens produktion ökade i juli, sedan OPEC och dess allierade i slutet av juni kom överens om att öka råoljeproduktionen i juli efter att ha sänkt produktionen under mer än ett år.
Ett potentiellt fall i den saudiska produktionen
Oljehandlare bör emellertid ta den nya utvecklingen med en nypa salt som analytiker på ING Bank varnade för att den potentiella minskningen i den saudiska produktionen ”skiljer sig från ett antal andra uppskattningar där ute, med en uppskattning att den saudiska oljeproduktionen ökade till lika mycket som 10,8 miljoner fat per dag över månaden. ”
Medan råoljepriset har fallit tillbaka från sin topp för tre och ett halvt år när de stora globala oljeproducenterna försökte öka produktionen, fann oljemarknaden fortfarande stöd från geopolitisk risk i Irans produktion. Observatörer förväntade sig förnyade amerikanska sanktioner för att kväva Irans råoljeexport under de kommande månaderna.
Dessutom visade månadsvis statistik att den amerikanska oljeproduktionen dök upp till 10,4 miljoner fat per dag i maj från 10,5 miljoner i april, och gav också lite stöd.
Den amerikanska skifferindustrins framväxt har skakat oljemarknaderna. Detta eftersom de amerikanska skifferproducenterna pumpar ut rekordstora mängder råolja nu när oljeprisethar stabiliserats. Numera kan investerare få exponering mot denna sektor genom en ETF som satsar på skifferolja. Det finns flera sådana, men en som vi kommit i kontakt med nyligen är American Energy Independence ETF (NYSEArca: USAI).
Denna börshandlade fond äger aktier och andelar i både vanliga aktiebolag som är listade på de stora börserna, dels i så kallade MLPs. Den ger investerarna en exponering mot för medellång energiinfrastruktur, såsom olje- och gasledningar, lagringstillgångar och bearbetningsanläggningar som skulle gynnas av USAs skifferrevolution.
Ett amerikanskt energioberoende i sikte
Skifferrevolutionen har lett till att det finns förhoppningar om ett amerikanskt energioberoende säger Simon Lack, SL Advisors ’Managing Partner, i en analys som nyligen publicerades. Världens mest dynamiska ekonomi har använt innovation, och teknik för att kunna ge fördelarna med billigare, renare energi till alla amerikaner.
Istället för att endast fokusera på MLPs riktar USAI in sig på de största energiinfrastrukturerna. Denna börshandlade fond följer American Energy Independence Index, som innehåller USA-och Kanada-baserade energiinfrastrukturföretag, tillsammans med högavkastande master limited partnerships. Eftersom det inte fokuserar exklusivt på MLP, kan USAI undvika några av de ineffektiviteter som vi kan se på MLP-marknaden. För svenska investerare är MLPs sällan en bra investering skattemässigt sett.
En efterfrågan på marknaden
”Vi såg att det fanns ett stort gap på marknaden”, sa Lack. ”Strukturella förändringar har minskat betydelsen för master limited partnerships, MLPs, men många energiinfrastrukturfonder är dedikerade till den delsektorn. Som ett resultat kan vissa stora företag förbises. USAI är utformat för att hantera det oöverträffade behovet av ett brett baserat skatteeffektivt sätt att investera i infrastrukturen som stöder Amerikas växande oljeproduktion.
Till skillnad från andra energisegment kan infrastruktursegmentet vara mindre känsligt för volatila råoljepriser. Sektorn har exempelvis visat sin motståndskraft, även när den utsattes för svår prispress under de senaste åren. Eftersom USA blir mer energioberoende, kommer de nya utvecklingen att gynna nordamerikanska infrastrukturföretag och MLPs.
OPECs misslyckade försök
OPECs misslyckade försök att under 2014 till och med 2016 försätta de amerikanska skifferproducenterna i konkurs har enligt Lack visat den amerikanska kapitalismens makt. De amerikanska företagen svarade med att minska sina kostnader och att utvecklas. Till följd av detta är deras produktion fortsatt stark.
USAIs toppinnehav inkluderar Cheniere Energy 10,3%, Energy Transfer Equity 8,7%, Williams Cos 8,5%, Kinder Morgan 8,5% och Enbridge 8,0%. Det underliggande indexet rikta sig mot 15% amerikanska midstream GP-partnerskap, 35% amerikanska midstream-GP-företag, 20% amerikanska midstream-företag, 25% kanadensiska midstream-företag och 5% amerikanska midstream-MLP.
Inflows into diversified commodity basket ETPs, totalling US$92.5mn surged to their highest level since May 2016. Rising volatility across global financial markets in conjunction with supportive fundamentals for most commodities favours the case for diversifying a portfolio.
Softening momentum in global manufacturing data sparked outflows from copper, aluminium and broad industrial metal basket ETPs worth US$28.9mn, US$11.1mn and US$14.8mn respectively. The decline in Chinese Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector to its lowest level since July 2016 appears to have stoked concerns of future demand for industrial metals, coupled with weaker manufacturing PMI data across US, Europe and UK. Added to that, copper production in Chile, home to the world’s largest copper mining producer, rose 6.3% over the prior year in January providing evidence of rising copper supply. The imposition of trade tariffs by President Trump on steel and aluminium imports generated volatility across industrial metals prompting outflows from industrial metal basket and aluminium ETPs for the first time in three weeks. Nickel ETPs bucked the trend, by recording inflows of US$9.4mn owing to expectations of demand from battery technology.
Outflows from gold ETPs amounting to US$93.8mn rose for the fifth week in a row amidst a strong US dollar. In the first nine weeks of 2018, the overall trend of gold ETP flows has largely been negative. Last week marked the fifth consecutive week of gold ETP outflows as the US dollar strengthened in the aftermath of Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell’s optimistic view of the US economy and upward trajectory of interest rates. Meanwhile, precious metal basket ETPs garnered inflows worth US$11.1mn for the fifth consecutive week.
Crude oil ETPs faced another week of outflows worth US$15.8mn. Since the start of 2018, there has only been one week of inflows into crude oil ETPs highlighting the ensuing pessimism amongst ETP investors, who have been opportunistically selling into the price rally that began around June 2017. Last week, crude oil prices came under significant pressure owing to an unexpected sharp increase in US crude oil stocks in conjunction with the firmer US dollar. Added to that, weaker manufacturing data in China, known to be the world’s largest crude oil importer, amplified risk aversion amongst investors. The drop in OPEC production to a 10-month low in February failed to counteract the bearish sentiment since it is largely attributable to temporary production shortfalls in Venezuela.
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