A Temporary Set-Back to Global Recovery

A Temporary Set-Back to Global Recovery

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Soft Growth Patch and US Rate Rise Concerns Hit Cyclical Assets A Temporary Set-Back to Global Recovery

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Highlights

Corn prices jumped 6.8% on the back of strong US export sales.
China A-Shares surge following the national ”golden week” holiday.

Buy USD dips.

 

Despite receiving a temporary lift from dovish Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes, most global developed market equity benchmarks declined last week. Poor German economic data added to the woes in Europe weighing heavily on investor sentiment. The US dollar depreciated following the release of the ‘dovish’ Fed minutes and helped sustain modest gains in gold and other commodity sectors. The key exception in the commodity space was energy, where ample supple remains a drag on performance. After last month’s almost universally disappointing economic data releases from China, this week’s release of Chinese loan growth, inflation, and reserve growth will be closely watched.

Commodities

Corn prices jumped 6.8% on the back of strong US export sales. Export sales were given a boost by extremely low prices. A bumper crop expected this year has driven the price of corn to the lowest since 2010. However, the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand report released late on Friday, capped gains as production forecasts were raised once again. Coffee continued to rise (up 6.2%) on expectations of a poor Brazilian crop next year. Meanwhile, the current coffee harvest is still underway in Brazil, and erratic weather this year has likely weakened coffee bushes for next year’s crop.

Elsewhere, crude oil prices slid last week amid ample supply. WTI fell 5.7% while Brent lost 3.9%. OPEC’s report released on Friday showed the group’s crude oil production had risen in September to average 30.47 mb/d, up 0.40 mb/d from the previous month. Production from Libya, Iraq, Angola and Nigeria increased, while crude oil output in Saudi Arabia fell.

Equities

China A-Shares surge following the national “golden week” holiday. Last Tuesday was the first trading day on the Chinese stock exchanges after a week of national holiday in the country. The domestic market reopened in a strong note on Tuesday with the MSCI China A Index up 1.3% on that day. The index is now trading at around 12% above its 200dma and 4.3% above its 50dma, reflecting investors’ bullish sentiment over the Chinese economy as growth elsewhere seems gloomy. Last week’s dovish Fed minutes failed to support global equities, with many global equity benchmarks forced to their lowest levels this year, as investor sentiment is being battered by disappointing growth numbers, particularly from the Eurozone. Meanwhile, fears over the global growth outlook have boosted the EURO STOXX 50® Investable Volatility Index, up 1% last week and 15% over the past 3 weeks.

Currencies

Buy USD dips. The USD posted a weekly decline for the first time since July last week, despite a late recovery. Our long held view of USD strength remains and any temporary weakness we view as a buying opportunity. US Federal Reserve voting member Dudley indicated that mid-2015 is ‘about right’ for the first rate hike. As we have noted previously, excess liquidity in the system – a result of the Fed balance sheet expansion – does not preclude rate hikes. Signalling policy tightening via small gradual rate increases will go a long way to keeping price expectations well anchored. Rate increases longside a significant pool of liquidity to aid lending, will support growth at the same time and enhance the credibility of the US Fed. Indeed, the upward momentum of the USD is being fuelled by futures market positioning and the recent equity weakness is contributing to the ‘flight to quality’ bid for the USD.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

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China Growth Concerns and Strong Dollar Hit Commodities

China Growth Concerns and Strong Dollar Hit Commodities

China Growth Concerns and Strong Dollar Hit Commodities Commodity ETP Weekly

Highlights

  • Diminishing global risks and US Dollar strength weigh on precious metals.
    Oil ETPs see 10th week of inflows as investors view current price levels attractive.
    Wheat ETPs record 18th consecutive week of inflows as price falls to 4-year low.

 

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Concerns about China’s growth outlook, stagnation in Europe and easing geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region weighed on commodity performance and drove outflows from commodity ETPs last week. Precious metals saw the largest outflows in over a year, with silver and both long and short gold ETPs seeing outflows. The trades are not all one way, however, with the price correction attracting bargain hunters into oil and wheat. Most of the factors that have hit commodity prices over the past few weeks are temporary, and present interesting opportunities for medium to long-term investors in our view. As China eases to boost growth, the US economy recovers, and years of gradually tightening capacity starts to push up inflation, we believe commodity prices – particularly those most tightly linked to the industrial cycle – should recover from current beaten down levels.

Diminishing global risks and US Dollar strength weigh on precious metals. Precious metals saw US$263mn of outflows last week, with gold (both long and short) and silver ETPs seeing the largest outflows. Disappointing economic data from China and Europe weakened demand for the industrial precious metals, with US$17mn flowing out of palladium ETPs. In our view, the price declines are excessive based on our fundamental outlook, with silver, platinum and palladium likely to benefit most if China and US growth continue to recover as we expect. Gold closed just above our estimated all-in cost of production and the widely watched support level near US$1,200/oz. While the strengthening US dollar has weighed on gold in US dollar terms, it has fared much better in Euro terms. We view the current gold price as a very attractive entry point for longer-term investors.

Oil ETPs see 10th week of inflows as investors view current price levels attractive. Oil ETPs saw the 10th consecutive week of inflows last week, bringing total inflows over the period to US$192mn, as investors view current price levels as an attractive entry point. While the International Energy Agency revised down its forecast on global oil demand for 2014 and 2015, demand is still expected to strengthen in Q3/Q4 2014 and into 2015. With OPEC expected to announce production cuts for 2015 if demand and prices remain depressed, the price of Brent and WTI can potentially rebound to US$110/bbl and US$105/bbl respectively over the next few months in our view.

Wheat ETPs record 18th consecutive week of inflows as price falls to 4-year low. The USDA recently announced that they expect production to climb to a record of 720mn metric tons in 2014. However, investors have slowly been building positions in wheat, on expectations optimistic forecasts will not be met. With wheat priced for perfect growing conditions, any small setback in weather in major producing countries or an escalation in trade restrictions could drive a price rally. Meanwhile, ETFS Sugar (SUGA) recorded US$2.2mn of inflows last week, as the price dropped to a 5-year low on expectations production will outpace demand this year.

Key events to watch this week. A relatively light week in terms of economic releases. Markit manufacturing PMIs for China, the US, and the Eurozone will likely be the focus as investors assess the pace of the global recovery after a few disappointing releases. Investors will also be watching for any possible new easing initiatives from China’s economy and policy officials.

Video Presentation

Simona Gambarini, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

 

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Oil and Gold Remain Top Trades as Bargain Hunting Drives Inflows

Oil and Gold Remain Top Trades as Bargain Hunting Drives Inflows

Commodity ETP Weekly, Oil and Gold Remain Top Trades as Bargain Hunting Drives Inflows

Highlights

Bargain hunting drove US$7.4mn into long oil ETPs, marking the longest stretch of weekly inflows since 2012.

Long wheat ETPs saw their 17th consecutive week of inflows as investors mounted bets on a less bearish USDA report.

Concern over China and supply prompted another week of outflows in industrial metal ETPs, marking the largest cumulative four week outflow since May 2013.

Gold and oil ETPs both respectively saw their 9th consecutive week of inflows. The price of gold and oil has fallen in recent weeks, in part reflecting a reduction in the geopolitical premium following a ceasefire agreed by Ukraine and Russia. Bargain hunting investors have chosen to increase their holdings of oil with its price looking particularly attractive, with both Brent and WTI oil benchmarks trading below US$100/bbl. We believe OPEC is likely to cut production if demand for oil continues to remain weak, which will in turn help support prices. Despite weakness in gold prices, investors have generally maintained holdings over the past few months. Daily flow data however indicates that some investors are losing patience with gold in recent days and its weak price could test the endurance of some investors if the relatively stable geopolitical situation lasts.

Bargain hunting drove US$7.4mn into long oil ETPs, marking the longest stretch of weekly inflows since 2012. Although bets weren’t completely one-sided, with US$2.7mn of inflows into short oil ETPs, many investors are doubtful that the current weakness in oil price can persist. Weak global demand for oil products this summer, combined with the limited impact of geopolitical risks on OPEC and Russian oil supply sent both Brent and WTI prices to multi-month lows. With production reaching multi-decade highs, US oil inventories had remained above its 5-year range until very recently and stockpiles at Cushing have been slowly rebuilding. While Chinese oil imports and the US summer driving season have not been as supportive of oil demand as expected, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) is forecasting a supply deficit for the second half of 2014 and OPEC is anticipating a pick-up in global oil demand during the remaining months of 2014. Should that pick-up in demand not materialise, we believe that OPEC will cut production from its current target of 30mb/d.

Long wheat ETPs saw their 17th consecutive week of inflows as investors mounted bets on a less bearish USDA report. After months of successive production and stock upgrades, some investors thought that last Thursday’s World Agricultural Demand and Supply Estimate report would show some stabilisation. It turns out that they were disappointed. The price of wheat fell 4.2% last week alone and is now trading at the lowest level since 2010. With wheat priced for perfect growing conditions, any small hiccup in weather in major producing countries or an escalation in trade restrictions could drive a price rally. More bargain hunting is likely with prices at multi-year low levels.

Concern over China and supply prompted another week of outflows in industrial metal ETPs, marking the largest cumulative four week outflow since May 2013. Last week, US$9.1mn was redeemed from ETFS Industrial Metals (AIGI) basket and most long industrial metal ETPs saw outflows. Long copper ETPs in particular saw US$18.6mn of outflows. Industrial metal prices declined as jitters over the health of Chinese demand troubled investors and the probability of the Philippines following Indonesia’s lead in banning ore exports has lessened. By the end of the week, however, China reported strong credit growth for the past month, which should go a long way to ease concerns about its ability to drive demand for commodity-intensive house building and infrastructure construction.

Key events to watch this week. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting will be the focus of market attention. The US central bank is expected to continue to taper its bond-buying programme at the current rate, which will only leave another meeting (after this week’s) before it announces a stop to more purchases. After a disappointing US payrolls report, the market will watch out for any changes in forward guidance that could signal rate changes slower than current market expectations.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Video Presentation

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

 

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.