Det har varit en stor divergens mellan Latinamerikanska aktier, bland annat beroende på val, en stigande dollar och fallande oljepriser.
Fallande råvaruprisersom en följd av en stigande amerikanska dollar och avtagande efterfrågan har drabbat regionen tillsammans med regeringar som inte anses vara stabila jämfört med sina jämnåriga. Räntorna har också stigit, vilket gör det dyrare för regeringarna att låna pengar.
Negativen överväger positiva på kort sikt; Emellertid kan investerare som är villiga att titta på den stora bilden se en möjlighet att köpa till regionen med rabatt. Nedan listar vi några börshandlade fonder med exponering mot Latinamerika.
Global X FTSE Argentina ETF
Global X ARGT ger investerarna exponering mot 25 företag i Argentina. De största innehaven är Tenaris SA (ADR) som har en kapitalvikt på 20 procent, Mercado Libre med en vikt på 14 procent och YPF Sociedad Anonima Adr (YPF SA (ADR)) som står för 6,6 procent av fondförmögenheten.
iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF
iShares MSCI All Peru Capped Index Fund (EPU) ger investerarna exponering mot 26 företag i Peru. De största innehaven Creditcorp Ltd. (USA) som har en kapitalvikt på 22,5 procent, Southern Copper Corp med en vikt på 17,6 procent och Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA (ADR) som står för 6,0 procent av fondförmögenheten.
iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF
iShares MSCI Chile Inv. Mt. Idx. Fd(ETF) (NYSEARCA:ECH) ger investerarna exponering mot 36 företag och 10 olika sektorer i Chile. De största innehaven är Enersis SA (ADR) NYSEENI som har en kapitalvikt på 9,8 procent och Empresas Copec SA som står för 8,0 procent av fondförmögenheten.
Det är inte bara emerging markets som har haft en stark utveckling under 2017. Detta gällde även Latinamerika vars länder till viss del kategoriseras som emerging markets, men också som frontier markets. Det är en argentisk ETF leder utvecklingen i Latinamerika. Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (NYSEArca: ARGT) var årets stora vinnare, med en uppgång om cirka 54 procent i USD.
Även andra latinamerikanska länder utvecklades väl, till exempel Chile. iShares MSCI Chile Capped ETF (NYSEArca: ECH) steg med 38 procent under året. Den peruanska ekonomin som precis som Chiles är starkt påverkad av råvaror var även den en vinnare. iShares MSCI All Peru Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EPU) steg med 23 procent under 2017.
En annan fond med fokus på Argentina
iShares MSCI Argentina and Global Exposure ETF (BATS: AGT) är en annan börshandlad fond med fokus på Argentinas aktiemarknad. En annan argentisk ETF helt enkelt. Under 2017 steg denna ETF med 21 procent. Dett var marginellt bättre än vad den mycket populära iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWZ) mäktade med. Den börshandlade fonden EWZ gav en värdeökning i USD på 20,8 procent.
Trots att Mexikodrabbades negativt av förhandlingar om NAFTA och en växande politisk skandal så steg landets aktiemarknad. iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (NYSEArca: EWW) hade ett tufft andra halvår, men steg ändå med mer än 10 procent under 2017. Det var få som trodde att Mexikos börs skulle stiga under 2017 efter det att resultaten för det amerikanska presidentvalet presenterades, än mindre att denna börshandlade fond skulle gå så pass bra.
Det finns vissa investerare som väljer att följa de ekonomiska flödena världen över. För dem har landsspecifika ETFer stor betydelse. De tenderar att analysera data på landsnivå, ibland till och med lägre än så. De flesta föredrar emellertid att investera på regionnivå, något som kanske inte alltid är av godo. Japanoch Thailand är två helt skilda länder och har olika förutsättningar trots att de båda är asiatiska länder. Samma med Polen och Portugal som båda ingår i EU och är europeiska länder.
Länder är olika
Vår övertygelse är att länderna är viktiga, och att välja investeringsmöjligheter på landsnivå ger de bästa möjligheterna till ett bättre investeringsresultat. Vi tror att även om länder kan dela gränser och betraktas som samma region eller klassificering (dvs. tillväxtmarknader), skiljer sig varje land från sina grannar och skiljer sig från andra länder som har liknande börsvärde. Mexiko och Malaysia har i dag lika stor vikt i iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM), men är ändå två mycket olika ekonomier.
Frankrike och Italien delar en gräns, men deras ekonomiska utveckling och aktiemarknadsprestanda kan variera kraftigt. Det är därför vi inte slutar på regional nivå, men dyker djupare för att analysera data på landsnivå.
Europas återupplivning
Regionalt sett har det utvecklade och tillväxtmarknaden Europa som helhet varit mycket oattraktivt för det senaste tre åren. Med dyra värderingar, dålig momentum och tröga grunder var Europa ofta den största relativa undervikten för många investerare.
Under de senaste 10 månaderna har allt detta ändrats. De europeiska länderna har blivit mycket mer attraktiva och representerar sju av av topp 10 rankade länder. Polen, Nederländerna, Frankrike, Spanien, Österrike och Tyskland leder vägen. De nordiska länderna (Danmark, Sverige och Finland) rankas strax efter topp 10. Sammantaget är dessa länder bättre än genomsnittet på kort och medellång sikt Momentum, och billigare än genomsnittliga värderingar.
(Rankningarna är baserade på 34 länder)
Den ökade europeiska exponeringen har kommit på bekostnad av Asien och Stillahavsområdet, Japan och USA. Som framgår av tabellen nedan har exponeringar mot Europa i globala portföljer nästan tredubblats, medan USA nu är underviktigt.
Frankrike i korthet
I början av 2016 låg Frankrike nära botten av många rankningar. Landet hade de värsta fundamental, uppvisade hög risk och högre värderingar. Endast Peru och Schweiz rankades värre vid den tiden.
Nu har Frankrike bättre än genomsnittet grunder, stark fart, förbättrad risk (minskade CDS-spreadar och lägre politisk risk) och lägre värderingar (pris/bok och p/e-tal).
Frankrike är bara ett av flera andra europeiska länder som blivit mer attraktiva. Det är en bra tid att titta på icke-amerikanska exponeringar. Om du är intresserad av Europa på grund av dess billigare värderingar och starka momentum, är det ännu bättre att ta sig in under huven och se vilka länder som är mest attraktiva. Använd gärna Landsspecifika ETFer. När allt kommer omkring är vissa europeiska länder mer lika än andra.
Global Economic Recovery, Political Risk and Commodities
Global Economic Recovery, Political Risk and Commodities by Didier Saint-Georges, Managing Director and Member of the Investment Committee, Carmignac
A global economic recovery is underway. Growth has picked up across global markets for about a year, although during that same period markets have also had to contend with bouts of short-term volatility, with political risk driving much of that volatility. The Macron victory in the French presidential election, who campaigned on a pro-European platform, should now drastically diminish political risk on that continent and allow investors to focus on its economic fundamentals instead. As political risk dissipates, eyes are now also on central banks in the US and in Europe and on what they will do to navigate their economies through the different cycles of the recovery. Deflation is no longer the most potent threat facing the global economy. Instead, inflation is likely to take center stage and keep policymakers on their toes in the near future.
The cycle should become more than ever the key feature to assess. Financial markets are currently experiencing a synchronized growth, favourable for risky assets. Europe and EM are reaping the benefits of an economic upturn with a delay, whereas the US economy is more exposed to the risk of a deceleration in growth momentum, partly induced by political noise.
Emerging markets, which are export-dominant economies, are best positioned to keep benefiting from a recovery in the global economy. Their economic fundamentals, too, are improving for emerging markets, making them an appealing investment destination. In addition, corporate earnings have historically moved in lockstep with international trade, so it is reasonable to expect a growth in corporate earnings as international trade continues to increase.
In Latin America, where many structural economic changes are underway in countries like Brazil, Argentinaand Colombia, and after a lackluster growth trend during recent periods, the conditions are set to take advantage of this global positive cycle. However, investors have to keep several risks in mind. One of the risks could come from Trump administration’s protectionist agenda that could still directly impact economies like Mexico, which are highly dependent on US trade. Another risk could come from China, which has been a major source of foreign direct investment for Latin American countries like Peru. Indeed, the ongoing pressure of capital outflows, coupled with its rising debt to GDP ratio point to an unsteady growth basis for China. This is a threat to Latin American countries that must not be ignored.
On the commodity front, it has been a volatile start of the year. Short term oil price tends to be a function of market expectations, news flow, and variation in inventories. Over the short term, there is a strong case for oil prices rising through the next few months as US inventories draw down, OPEC discipline is maintained, and global demand continues to grow at a solid pace. However, over the longer term, the risk of US shale producers to start producing and exporting more, based on increasing capacity, could create a lingering risk of a disruption to the demand- supply balance.
Besides our positive short term view on oil, we are also positive on the near term outlook for mining and materials names, as long as the momentum in Chinese infrastructure spending continues. We favor base metals miners, while we also see some meaningful upside coming from metallurgical coal production for export to China, given the Chinese restriction on coal mining activity and environmental focus which looks set to provide a continuing boost for the seaborne coal market. In the long term, Chinese excess credit creation remains a risk, but for the time being, we do not see the credit impulse running into the ground.
Emerging Markets Shake Off Brexit. Emerging markets continued to gather momentum and flows following the June Brexit vote and, in the third quarter, outperformed most global indices including the S&P 500® Index. Large-caps outpaced small-caps, again extending the performance gap for the year. Growth stocks staged a modest comeback over value stocks.
After a couple of quarters of weakness, China was among the best performing countries in the third quarter, accompanied by Brazil (a familiar outperformer this year) and Hungary. India also advanced. Turkey, on the other hand, declined substantially in 3Q as a result of the power grab attempt by Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the unsuccessful coup. Technology stocks pushed higher during the quarter to become the third best performing sector for the year following energy and materials. Emerging markets utilities stocks were the worst performers.
3Q’16 Emerging Markets Equity Strategy Review and Positioning
Stock selection added alpha in 3Q, while asset allocation detracted from the strategy’s performance. On a sector level, stock selection in the telecommunications and consumer sectors led the way while stock selection and under allocation to the information technology sector hurt relative performance. On a country level, stock selection in Mexico, Taiwan, and India contributed most to relative performance while stock selection in South Korea, China, and Jordan detracted from relative performance. The strategy’s weighting in small-caps detracted from performance most during the third quarter, while selections in large- and mid-caps aided performance.
3Q Performance Contributors
Our top five contributor companies in 3Q included long-term portfolio position Chinese internet company Tencent Holdings1 and Chinese e-commerce company JD.com,2 both of which rose during the quarter on the back of good earnings results.
India’s Yes Bank Ltd.,3 a high-quality, private sector bank benefited from strong loan and deposit growth, outpaced its peers, while at the same time maintaining a steady non-performing loans level. CP All,4 which operates close to 9,000 corporate, franchise, and sub-area license stores around Thailand reported strong second quarter results, resulting in earnings estimate upgrades.
Finally, Taiwan Semiconductor,5 the undisputed global leader in integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing, benefited from robust sales growth, and a strong 2017 demand outlook.
3Q Performance Detractors
The strategy’s bottom-five performing companies in 3Q included Hikma,6 a London-listed pharmaceutical company with a mix of branded and non-branded generics, and in-licensed drugs. Hikma had a difficult quarter in stock performance terms, reversing a strong second quarter. The proximate cause was a downgrade to company guidance, specifically related to delayed product approvals, which lead most analysts to downgrade earnings for this year, and conservatively, also for 2017.
Robinson Retail,7 a Philippines-based retailer with a variety of retail formats, also reversed relatively strong second quarter performance. In part this was due to a diminished enthusiasm for Philippines stocks generally, following the election of its new president. Although operations for the company are robust, there has been some frustration at the pace of deployment of capital, and concern about strong competition, particularly in Metro Manila.
Techtronic,8 a China-based producer of power tools that are sold mainly in the U.S. and Western Europe, declined due to weaker-than-expected quarterly revenue growth, and higher-than-expected promotional costs on new products, which depressed margins.
Credicorp,9 the leading bank in Peru, pared back gains from earlier in the year after it reported weaker-than-expected loan growth in the second quarter driven by economic uncertainty caused by Peru’s presidential election. Hence, loan growth for the full year is now expected to be lower than the market originally expected.
Eva Precision10 rounds out the performance detractors, and the strategy no longer holds this position. Hopeful signs of better plastic molding orders did not actually translate into orders, leading to worse-than-expected revenue and poor gross margins.
Emerging Markets Challenged by Brexit and “Populist Politics”
Global markets have seen some significant challenges, including record low and negative bond yields and concern about the limits of quantitative easing. Markets have been challenged by Brexit, and concerns about the rise of “populist politics” – to name a few issues. Emerging markets specifically have seen some challenges, including political change in Brazil and an attempted coup in Turkey. Notwithstanding these risks, the summer was actually a period of restrained market volatility, which surprised many market participants.
We Believe that China Should Remain Stable
Many factors combined to create the stronger relative performance from emerging markets during the quarter, and so far this year, compared to global indices. First, the rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar appears to have faded as market expectation of a U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) rate hike has been pushed back until the end of the year and possibly next year. Second, despite the febrile headline grabbing comments of market pundits, China has not had any kind of “Minsky moment” (a collapse in asset prices following the exhaustion of credit expansion), whether related to capital outflows or leverage. Although we certainly concede that there are some significant imbalances in China’s economy, we believe that the extra “stabilizers” available to authorities will be used to attempt to achieve a reasonably stable outcome over the medium term. Third, the supply and demand equation for commodities looks more balanced. Fourth, earnings are likely to be much less disappointing this year, partly because expectations have been reset to lower levels, and partly because corporates are gradually acclimatizing to a slower growth world and generating more efficiencies, rather than focusing predominantly on top-line growth.
Reform efforts have been uneven in emerging markets, but we are encouraged by the long-term impact of the passage of the GST (goods and services tax) in India. In China, some reform efforts are often opaque and sometimes appear to represent “two steps forward then one back”. The outcome of tax amnesties in India and Indonesia appears to have been better than expected, and, finally, infrastructure projects seem to be developing greater impetus in a number of countries, for example, the Philippines.
Emerging Markets Have Shown Considerable Relative Strength in 2016
We remain constructive on the continuing outperformance of emerging markets in a global context. After an extended period in the wilderness, emerging markets assets have shown considerable relative strength so far this year. We feel that there is reasonable evidence for that outperformance to continue for the asset class as a whole. Broadly speaking, a stable U.S. dollar, better commodities’ prices, a more resilient earnings profile, and light positioning in the asset class ought to combine to increase the relative attractiveness of emerging markets.
One facet of the uptick in interest is that substantially all inflows into the asset class this year have come through passive fund offerings. While appreciating the convenience that ETFs offer, we caution that allocation of capital through market capitalization can be particularly pernicious in emerging markets.
We make this comment because, given the economic history of many emerging markets economies, there are many very large scale state-owned companies in the emerging markets universe. The prominence of these companies we feel comes less from superior competence than from historically state-sponsored systemic advantage which is unlikely to be sustained in the long run. In addition, we believe many of these large companies are essentially driven by global cyclical factors such as energy and materials. We will continue to implement our philosophy of structural growth at a reasonable price. We are not style agnostic, drifting into whatever appears to be working at any given time. We are style specific and we continue to find that there are many areas of superior, sustained growth that are essentially non-cyclical in nature and will likely provide reliable opportunities for well-managed companies to exploit.
While there may be some countries where economic growth has stabilized or even picked up, the evidence for a sustained, strong improvement in global GDP appears limited at best. In a growth-challenged world, our philosophy of focusing on investment opportunities where strong, innovative management teams are able to capitalize on dynamic change and extract real value, ought to be rewarded over the medium term, despite the vagaries of commodity pricing and ETF flows.
Valuations for emerging markets equities and currencies are generally constructive, but not compellingly cheap. Expectations for earnings are much more realistic, and positioning in the asset class is cautious. Delayed expectations of further Fed tightening have also been positive for the asset class. Finally, it is perhaps hard to construct a case for alternative geographies and asset classes; arguably, the U.S. equity market looks overvalued, Japan is struggling with a strong currency, and Europe faces significant questions and uncertainties surrounding its political and economic future.
Consequently, we approach the remainder of this year, and the following years, with cautious optimism for the asset class. Much more importantly, we remain unabashedly enthusiastic about the companies that we actually own in emerging markets. As most investors know, we have a high active share and a healthy skepticism that the large emerging markets companies necessarily represent some of the best investable dynamics in emerging markets.
Post Disclosure
1 Tencent Holdings represented 3.5% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
2 JD.com represented 2.8% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
3 Yes Bank Ltd. represented 3.0% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
4 CP All represented 2.2% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
5 Taiwan Semiconductor represented 2.8% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
6 Hikma represented 0.7% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
7 Robinson Retail represented 1.5% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
8 Techtronic represented 1.4% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
9 Credicorp represented 2.2% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
10 Eva Precision represented 0.0% of the Fund’s net assets as of 9/30/16.
The S&P 500® Index (S&P 500) consists of 500 widely held common stocks covering industrial, utility, financial, and transportation sectors. This Index is unmanaged and does include the reinvestment of all dividends, but does not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in the strategy. An index’s performance is not illustrative of the strategy’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
AUTHORED BY
David Semple
Portfolio Manager for the Emerging Markets Equity strategy
Oversees the Emerging Markets Equity team; responsible for company research, stock selection, and portfolio construction
Investment Management Team member since 1998
Prior to joining VanEck, served on the team sub-advising VanEck’s emerging markets VIP insurance fund at Peregrine Asset Management (Hong Kong)
Previously held regional strategy and regional sales positions at Peregrine Brokerage (Hong Kong)
Formerly a portfolio manager specializing in Asian equity markets at Murray Johnstone (Glasgow)
Member of the Association of Investment Management and Research (AIMR); member of the CFA Institute
Media appearances include CNBC, Bloomberg, and NPR; quoted in Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Barron’s, among others
Bachelor of Law with Honors, University of Edinburgh, Scotland
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Please note that Van Eck Securities Corporation offers investment portfolios that invest in the asset class(es) mentioned in this commentary. The Emerging Markets Equity strategy is subject to the risks associated with its investments in emerging markets securities, which tend to be more volatile and less liquid than securities traded in developed countries. The Emerging Markets Equity strategy’s investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, including the takeover of property without adequate compensation or imposition of prohibitive taxation. The Emerging Markets Equity strategy is subject to risks associated with investments in derivatives, illiquid securities, and small or mid-cap companies. The Emerging Markets Equity strategy is also subject to inflation risk, market risk, non-diversification risk, and leverage risk. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. An investor should consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the investment company carefully before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information. Please read them carefully before investing.
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