Etikett: PHAU

Markets contained following Trump upset

ETF Securities Markets contained following Trump upsetMarkets contained following Trump upset

Trade Idea – FX Weekly – Markets contained following Trump upset

  • The market calm that has followed Trump’s victory is unlikely to persist in the medium term.
  • Political risks remain elevated in Europe and the shock result could garner momentum for anti-establishment populist parties ahead of key elections.
  • Safe haven assets and currencies are likely to remain well supported as uncertainty continues to characterise the financial landscape.

Against the odds

In a similar set up to the EU referendum, Donald Trump has managed to defy poll-based forecasts and betting odds to become the 45th president of the US. After capturing key electoral votes in swing states Florida and Ohio, Trump managed to secure victory in the early hours of Wednesday morning, shocking financial markets and sending risk assets tumbling. However in contrast to the aftermath of the EU referendum, the market moves that followed this shock result have been fairly muted (see Figure 1). Sharp rallies in safe havens assets during Asian trading hours were significantly tempered as a humble victory speech by Trump went some way to assuage market concerns and foster hopes of a more moderate President-elect. In the medium term, we do not expect the calm that has currently descended on markets to last, as elevated political uncertainty in the US and Europe sees risk-off sentiment dominate trading. This environment should continue to support the price of gold and keep safe haven currencies such as the JPY and CHF well bid against the US Dollar.

(Click to enlarge)

Policies unknown

The hope for many has always been that Trump’s controversial pledges made during his presidential campaign were merely aimed at garnering public support and were not a true reflection of his underlying political goals. His victory speech went some way towards this idea and assured investors of his intentions to pursue a more mainstream line as US president. However, the issue remains that aside from infrastructure spending, a considerable portion of his policies remain somewhat ambiguous. Should Trump emerge committed to protectionist policies and discriminatory immigration screening (ideas touted during his campaign), we would likely see an adverse market reaction as both policies would likely inhibit domestic and global growth.

Trump has also been a vocal critic of US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Janet Yellen, claiming that low interest rates have only been kept in place for as long as they have due to political influences. Should he promote a more hawkish approach to monetary policy in combination with his planned fiscal expansion, then in longer term the US Dollar is likely to receive support as long term US yields climb. However, for the moment this remains uncertain.

Populist contagion

Following Trump’s surprise victory it was reported that Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Front National party, was one of the first to congratulate the Republican candidate on his success. While this has no significance in isolation, it is an anecdotal reminder that Trump’s victory was another win for the anti-establishment that also prevailed during the EU referendum. The wider concern is that momentum mounts for nationalist parties in mainland Europe ahead of key elections scheduled in the next year. Should we see the likes of the Front National, Alternative for Germany and Five Star party gain in the polls in Europe then we may see some weakness surface for the common currency.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

GBP Base

ETFS Long CHF Short GBP (GBCH)
ETFS Short CHF Long GBP (CHGB)
ETFS Long JPY Short GBP (GBJP)
ETFS Short JPY Long GBP (JPGB)

EUR Base

ETFS Long CHF Short EUR (EUCH)
ETFS Short CHF Long EUR (SCHE)
ETFS Long JPY Short EUR (SJPS)
ETFS Short JPY Long EUR (SJPL)

USD Base

ETFS Long CHF Short USD (LCHF)
ETFS Short CHF Long USD (SCHF)
ETFS Long JPY Short USD (LJPY)
ETFS Short JPY Long USD (SJPY)

3x

ETFS 3x Long CHF Short EUR (ECH3)
ETFS 3x Short CHF Long EUR (CHE3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short EUR (EJP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long EUR (JPE3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short GBP (JPP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long GBP (SYP3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short USD (LJP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long USD (SJP3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long CHF Short EUR (5CH3)
ETFS 5x Short CHF Long EUR (5CHE)
ETFS 5x Long JPY Short EUR (EJP5)
ETFS 5x Short JPY Long EUR (JPE5)

Basket

ETFS Bullish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LUSB)
ETFS Bearish USD vs G10 Currency basket Securities (SUSB)

Physical Gold

ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU)
Gold Bullion Securities (GBS)
ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Physical Gold (GBSE)
ETFS GBP Daily Hedged Physical Gold (GBSP)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (“GBS”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (“MSL”) and ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (“HMSL”). FXL, GBS, MSL and HMSL are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

This communication is only targeted at professional investors. In Switzerland, this communication is only targeted at Regulated Qualified Investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Short and/or leveraged exchange-traded products are only intended for investors who understand the risks involved in investing in a product with short and/or leveraged exposure and who intend to invest on a short term basis. Potential losses from short and leveraged exchange-traded products may be magnified in comparison to products that provide an unleveraged exposure. Please refer to the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks.

FXL

Securities issued by FXL are direct, limited recourse obligations of FXL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated (”Morgan Stanley Inc.”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley Inc. index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley Inc. or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by FXL. The securities issued by FXL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley Inc., and Morgan Stanley Inc. bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of FXL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley Inc. has with FXL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by FXL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley Inc. trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley Inc. to determine whether Morgan Stanley Inc.’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley Inc. without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley Inc..

GBS

Securities issued by GBS are direct, limited recourse obligations of GBS alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by HSBC Bank plc, any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. HSBC Bank plc disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

MSL

Securities issued by MSL are direct, limited recourse obligations of MSL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of HSBC Bank plc and JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of HSBC Bank plc and JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

HMSL

Securities issued by HMSL are direct, limited recourse obligations of HMSL alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of Morgan Stanley & Co International plc, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

The Morgan Stanley Indices are the exclusive property of Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC (”Morgan Stanley LLC”). Morgan Stanley and the Morgan Stanley LLC index names are service mark(s) of Morgan Stanley LLC or its affiliates and have been licensed for use for certain purposes by ETF Securities Limited in respect of the securities issued by HMSL. The securities issued by HMSL are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by Morgan Stanley LLC, and Morgan Stanley LLC bears no liability with respect to any such financial securities. The prospectus of HMSL contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship Morgan Stanley LLC has with HMSL and any related financial securities. No purchaser, seller or holder of securities issued by HMSL, or any other person or entity, should use or refer to any Morgan Stanley LLC trade name, trademark or service mark to sponsor, endorse, market or promote this product without first contacting Morgan Stanley LLC to determine whether Morgan Stanley LLC’s permission is required. Under no circumstances may any person or entity claim any affiliation with Morgan Stanley LLC without the prior written permission of Morgan Stanley LLC.

ETF Securities lanserar första guld-ETCerna på Euroclears plattform Fundsettle

ETF Securities lanserar första guld-ETCerna på Euroclears plattform Fundsettle

ETF Securities lanserar första guld-ETCerna på Euroclears plattform Fundsettle. Gold Bullion Securities (GBS) och ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) finns nu tillgängliga för fondinvesterare via plattformen FundSettle

ETF Securities har sett inflöden på 3 miljarder dollar i guldprodukter sedan årsskiftet

ETF Securities, en av världens ledande oberoende leverantörer av börshandlade produkter (ETPer), offentliggjorde idag noteringen av de allra första börshandlade råvarorna (ETCer) på Euroclears fondhanteringsplattform FundSettle, i samarbete med FundsPlace.

Investerare kommer nu ha tillgång till två fysiskt uppbackade guld-ETPer från ETF Securities via plattformen; Gold Bullion Securities och ETFS Physical Gold.

ETCer är traditionellt noterade på en börs och kan handlas som aktier när som helst under marknadens öppettider. FundSettle gör det möjligt för investerare att köpa och sälja aktier i dessa ETPer precis som i fonder, till substansvärdet (NAV) vid dagens slut, och erbjuder således ytterligare ett sätt att få tillgång till produkterna.

Sedan början av 2016 har ETF Securities sett inflöden på över 3 miljarder dollar i sina guldprodukter[1]  och företaget är den största leverantören av råvaru-ETPer i Europa, med 36% av totala flödena i råvaru-ETPer[2].

Peter Lidblom, Head of Nordics & Netherlands på ETF Securities, säger:

”Ofta beskrivs guld som en trygg hamn, och investerare köper guld som ett skydd mot den extrema ekonomiska och finansiella oron som föranletts av osäker penningpolitik från ECB och FED, samt den politiska oron över Brexit och det amerikanska presidentvalet.  Vi är glada att kunna svara på den ökade efterfrågan genom att göra våra produkter tillgängliga via våra FundsPlace-lösningar. ETF Securities utvecklade världens första guld-ETC år 2003 och vi är hängivna till att säkerställa att våra produkter finns tillgängliga på ett bekvämt och transparent sätt för alla typer av investerare.”

Mohamed M’Rabti, Deputy Global Head på FundsPlace Euroclear säger: ”Vi är mycket stolta över att ha varit en del av detta samarbete med ETF Securities. Samarbetet visar den sanna bredden och flexibiliteten hos FundSettles plattform. Dessa ETCer blir de första som görs tillgängliga på FundSettle och som kan dra nytta av vårt säkra, pålitliga och skalbara tjänsteutbud.”

________________________________________ [1] Källa: ETF Securities, 13 juli 2016 [2] Källa: ETFGI Global ETF and ETP preliminary report, juni 2016

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ETF Securities – Det intelligenta alternativet

ETF Securities Group är en av världens ledande innovatörer inom börshandlade produkter (ETPer) och erbjuder specialistinvesteringslösningar för investerare runt om i världen, vilket gör det möjligt för dem att på ett intelligent sätt bygga upp och diversifiera sina portföljer.

Vi är pionjärer och utvecklade exempelvis världens första börshandlade guldprodukt. Idag erbjuder vi ett av det mest innovativa sortimenten inom specialist-ETPer, vilket omfattar råvaror, valutor, aktier och räntor. Med denna pionjäranda, vår oöverträffade expertis och genom att arbeta med ledande partners, tar vi fram de mest intressanta investeringsmöjligheterna och göra dem tillgängliga för investerare som det intelligent alternativet.

FundsPlace

FundsPlace, operated by Euroclear Bank, serves as a single access point for fund investors to process subscriptions, redemptions, transfers and switches, covering more than 100,000 investment funds worldwide and has links with over 900 fund administrators across 27 domiciles.

Euroclear FundsPlace connects global investment fund participants, providing tailored trade solutions to both international and domestic markets. The FundsPlace solution offers services in both trade and post-trade, with facilities covering order routing, account opening, settlement and asset servicing.

The Euroclear group includes Euroclear Bank – which is rated AA+ by Fitch Ratings and AA by Standard & Poor’s – as well as Euroclear Belgium, Euroclear Finland, Euroclear France, Euroclear Nederland, Euroclear Sweden and Euroclear UK & Ireland. The Euroclear group settled the equivalent of EUR 675 trillion in securities transactions in 2015, representing 191 million domestic and cross-border transactions. By December 2015, the group held EUR 27.5 trillion in assets for clients.

För ytterligare information, vänligen kontakta pressavdelningen på:

T: +44 (0) 20 7448 4330 E: press@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority. The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Metal Securities Limited and Gold Bullion Securities Limited (the ”Issuers”). The Issuers are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

Gold loses its shine

Gold loses its shine

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Gold loses its shine

Long gold ETPs witness the largest weekly outflows since inception.

ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL) receives largest weekly inflow since 2012.

Dollar strength weighs on platinum price.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

Following the recent robust US non-farm payroll reading, the market will be paying close attention to the FOMC’s press statement on Wednesday for any affirmation that the committee intends to raise rates in June. Any such indication will likely send the Euro closer to parity with the Dollar and be bearish for gold. In Europe, monetary policy will remain in the fore as the BOE releases minutes of its latest meeting and the SNB meets to discuss policy. In the UK, George Osborne will reveal his latest budget, which will be an opportunity for the government to impress voters in the run up to the general election in May.

Long gold ETPs witness the largest weekly outflows since inception. US$376.5mn of funds exited ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) last week amidst a broad market selloff for gold. The robust US payroll reading on the 6th March stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve intends to increase interest rates in its June meeting as the economy continues to display signs of strength. The prospect of higher US rates does not bode well for the precious metal which is itself a zero yielding asset. Since reaching a five month high of over US$1,300/oz in January, the gold price has fallen 11.2% as a series of positive events, including the announcement of a Greek debt deal, has boosted investor confidence. Going forward, bullion will likely find some support from investors outside of the US as central banks globally continue to cut interest rates and expand their respective balance sheets in an effort to combat deflation.

ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL) receives largest weekly inflow since 2012. The 11.7% drop in the price of WTI this week has sparked a resurgence of investor interest in US crude as flows into long WTI ETPs hit a 7 week high. Last week’s price decline was prompted by the release of a somewhat bearish report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and news that US crude stockpiles are at a record high. The report explained that US crude inventories look set to grow into the second half of 2015, at which point the recent cuts to investment expenditure will take effect and curtail production growth. Long WTI ETPs have experienced the longest streak of inflows to date as bargain hunting investors seek to benefit from the considerable upside to the price from current depressed levels.

Dollar strength weighs on platinum price. The price of platinum fell to US$1,118/oz last week, the lowest level since 2009, prompting the first weekly outflow from long platinum ETPs in six weeks. The price drop was driven by the US Dollar appreciating to multi year highs against major currencies and reduced safe haven demand. At current levels, platinum will likely witness price sensitive demand from China pick-up, which in conjunction with tight supply fundamentals, should aid a price recovery later in the year.

Key events to watch this week. Central banking activity will once again dominate the agenda next week: the upcoming FOMC meeting will clarify if the Fed continues to emphasise patience, which could derail the USD rally, followed by the release of BOE meeting minutes and the SNB interest rate decision. In addition, inflation data from the Eurozone will be monitored for any signs of undesirable deflation.

Video Presentation

Joshpreet Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

US Crude Dip Attracts Inflows

US Crude Dip Attracts Inflows

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly US Crude Dip Attracts Inflows

22nd consecutive week of inflows into long WTI ETPs.

Greek bailout extension triggers outflows from ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU).

Platinum sees inflows as major producer cuts capital spending.

Depressed wheat prices attract inflows into long wheat ETPs.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

China’s interest rate cuts on the weekend set the tone for another week which looks to be dominated by monetary policy activity. A series of central bank meetings globally will keep investors focused on the possibility of any further surprise monetary loosening in response to deflationary pressures. Janet Yellen’s testimony to congress last week highlighted the importance of the state of the economy to the pace of any US interest normalisation. This will encourage investors to pay even closer attention to the US non-farm payrolls reading due at the end of the week.

22nd consecutive week of inflows into long WTI ETPs. Investors continue to demand exposure to US crude with long WTI ETPs drawing US$50.7mn of inflows as the price remains at attractively low levels. This week WTI fell considerably more than its global counterpart causing the spread between crude benchmarks to widen to the highest level in 13 months. The 5.8% weekly decline in WTI was driven by reports that US crude inventory increased by twice as much as forecasted last week, stoking fears that shale oil is causing a supply glut in the US oil market.

Greek bailout extension triggers outflows from ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU). Euro group finance ministers reached an accord to provide Greece with four further months of bailout funds if certain conditions surrounding Greece’s budget, spending and tax collection are met. The outcome sent equity indices to record levels and caused investors to shed safe haven assets. As a result, PHAU witnessed US$33mn of outflows, reversing inflows from the prior week. The gold price fell in response to the deal but pared losses as Janet Yellen’s testimony to congress was interpreted relatively dovishly by the market.

Platinum sees inflows as major producer cuts capital spending. Platinum hit a five year low during the week before rallying 0.9% as Impala, the world’s second largest platinum producer, revealed that it intends to cut capital expenditure over the next two years in response to low platinum prices. Last month saw US$67mn flow into long platinum ETPs as investors positioned themselves for a price recovery from tighter supply conditions.

Depressed wheat prices attract inflows into long wheat ETPs. ETFS Wheat (WEAT) witnessed the largest inflow since July last year. Investors are viewing the current low price level as a potential buying opportunity. Prices have fallen 14.7% YTD as US wheat exports experience tough competition on international markets from European competitors. Furthermore, bearish sentiment has been stimulated by a USDA report which forecasted that US wheat inventory levels will reach a multi-year high in the 2015/16 crop year.

Key events to watch this week. Central bank meetings at the European Central bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Canada will ensure monetary policy remains the key focus for investors next week. In the US, nonfarm payrolls will closely watched as it will be a good indication of whether the US economy’s robust recovery remains on track and give policymakers further reason to tighten monetary conditions.

 

Video Presentation

Josh Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Oil Rally Consolidates Conviction in Crude

Oil Rally Consolidates Conviction in Crude

Commodity ETP Weekly Oil Rally Consolidates Conviction in Crude

Strongest weekly rally in four years drives inflows into long oil ETPs.
ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) reverses outflows from previous week.
Investors seeking leveraged exposure to gold drive inflows into ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG).
Bearish US inventory report stimulates inflows into long natural gas ETPs.

Download the complete report (.pdf)

The gold price tumbled and crude rallied on Friday immediately following the release of strong US payrolls data which reflected the health of the US labour market and the continuing theme of divergence between the US and Eurozone economies. In Asia, after cutting the Reserve Requirement Ratio by 50bps the People’s Bank of China may be under pressure to take more significant easing measures if upcoming Chinese inflation, money and loan supply data prove disappointing. Industrial metal prices are likely to be key beneficiaries of any further stimulus measures that are announced by the Chinese authorities.

Strongest weekly rally in four years drives inflows into long oil ETPs. ETFS WTI Crude Oil (CRUD) and ETFS Brent (OILB) saw US$80m of inflows this week as crude prices experienced the largest weekly gain since 2011. Escalation of violence in Libya, strong US labour market data and fall in the US oil rig count have prompted a strong rally in oil prices despite the release of record high US crude inventory figures. Investors are positioning themselves to benefit from the current positive sentiment in oil markets and the potential recovery in crude prices over the year.

ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) reverses outflows from previous week. US$65mn flowed into PHAU this week as investors continued to seek a safe haven from the uncertain political and economic situation in Europe. The gold price swung between gains and losses this week ultimately ending the week down 0.7%. The gold price was pressured by news that the newly elected Greek government would not be demanding a write off of international debt contrary to market expectations.

Investors seeking leveraged exposure to gold drive inflows into ETFS Physical Silver (PHAG). US$20mn flowed into PHAG this week despite the price falling -2.5%. Silver has performed well this year climbing 6.4% YTD as deflationary price pressure from tumbling oil prices has instigated a series of rate cuts by central banks and quantitative easing (QE) by the ECB. The result has been increased demand for silver due to investors perceiving the metal as a leverage play on gold.

Bearish US inventory report stimulates inflows into long natural gas ETPs. Bargain hunting investors seeking a rebound in prices drove US$7.2mn of inflows into ETFS Daily Leveraged Natural Gas as the spot price reached two and a half year lows this week. The fall was instigated by a smaller than expected withdrawal from US natural gas storage reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Investors are betting that low gas prices will stimulate greater demand from industrial producers and electricity companies in coming months which should lead to a price recovery.

Key events to watch this week. Following the strong US payrolls reading on Friday market attention will turn towards Europe and Asia this week. On Wednesday, the Euro area finance ministers hold emergency meeting to discuss a sustainable solution to Greece’s bailout program. This will come before Eurozone Q4 2014 GDP data released on Friday. In China, release of the level of aggregate financing, new Yuan loans and money supply will give a good indication of the health of Chinese credit markets and provide signs as to whether the central bank will have to ease policy further.

Video Presentation

Josh Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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