Agricultural basket ETPs received the largest inflows since inception, totalling US$54.7mn surpassing the previous high achieved only four weeks ago. After a lacklustre performance over the prior year with the exception of cotton, a majority of agricultural commodities are trading higher in 2018 owing to severe weather conditions. Wheat prices have been benefiting from the ongoing dry spell in key US growing areas that is hampering the development of the dormant winter wheat. While the severe dry conditions in Argentina are supporting soybean and soybean meal prices higher. Meanwhile USDA’s February World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) report, shows lower closing inventories for corn stocks, lending buoyancy to prices. Added to that the weaker US dollar is also helping the value of dollar-denominated exports in many agricultural commodities.
Inflows into industrial metal basket ETPs rebound to US$42.1mn reversing the prior week’s trend of outflows. The pronounced US dollar weakness coupled with higher than expected inflation data in the US has lent buoyancy to industrial metal prices. As metals and commodities are viewed as a hedge against inflation.
Inflows into Nickel ETPs worth US$21.4mn garner momentum, rising for the sixth week in a row. Nickel was the best performer last week amongst the industrial metals complex, with a price rise of 7.3%. The growth associated with electric vehicle batteries is expected to play a role in demand for nickel that currently only accounts for 3% of total demand. Added to that, roughly 50% of the current nickel mine supply is suitable for battery use as the low grade nickel products are inadequate for battery manufacturing, raising the need for further production as global nickel inventories have been trading lower.
Gold ETPs suffer US$103.5mn redemptions on the back of profit-taking.Gold pricesadvanced to US$1360 per troy ounce attaining an 18-month high on the back of higher than expected inflation data and weaker retail sales in the US. Outflows from platinum ETPs continue for the seventh week in a row. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, while new car registrations in the EU rose by 7.1% year-on-year, the percentage of diesel cars as a proportion of all new cars registered declined by 33%. This is likely to weigh on platinum, known for its use in pollution abatement technologies used in diesel vehicles.
Energy basket ETPs face redemptions worth US$13.2mn. While Oil ETPs saw inflows worth US$21.8mn. In its latest update the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) predicted production increase of 1.8mn barrels per day (bpd) is likely to exceed the anticipated growth in global demand. Added to that, owing to the ongoing unscheduled outages in Venezuela, the market would appear to be largely balanced if OPEC’s current oil production at 32.3mn bpd remained constant. However when Venezuela resumes production at normal levels, the oil market will be oversupplied.
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Profit taking in Precious Metals continued with gold outflows totalling US$113m last week. Following the first round of the French Presidential elections, the worst case in terms of market concerns, a Melenchon/Le Pen second round, was averted. Consequently risk assets rallied and defensive assets sold off, with gold bearing the brunt of this with US$125 of outflows last week. Despite this more bearish position in gold over the week we have seen minor outflows in short gold positions. Silver bucked this trend with inflows of US$8.5m, it remains attractively value relative to gold but in the short-term is vulnerable to a sell-off to as futures positioning highlights all-time-highs in positive sentiment.
Crude ETP inflows as recent oil price weakness seen as a buying opportunity. Recent weakness in the oil prices has been seen as a buying opportunity with inflows of US$62m into long position and outflows of US$3m in short positions. Investor flows into crude remain very volatile as investors remain tactical; we typically see outflows when Brent crude reaches US$55/bbl and inflows when it falls close to US$50/bbl. Year-to-date figures highlight that investors remain broadly constructive on further price gains with inflows totalling US$175m. We continue to see oil range bound: expectations that OPEC could announce another production cut at their 25th May meeting could provide support, however, falling marginal costs in the US tight oil industry and rising oil exports continue to undermine OPEC efforts.
Following the presidential election in France there has been surprisingly bearish activity in the EUR. EUR long positions saw outflows of US$13m while EUR short positions inflows of US$9m, suggesting investors have become more bearish, although this maybe due to the more dovish than expected rhetoric from the ECB in Thursday’s meeting where an announcement of QE tapering was expected following the positive outcome from the French presidential elections. Much of the more negative views on the EUR were against the USD and the Swiss Franc.
We continue to see inflows into agricultural commodities, which we believe is due to bargain hunting given recent price weakness. We saw a 9th straight week of inflows into CocoaETP: US$66mn inflows YTD. Coffeealso saw strong inflows las week totalling US$8.6m (10% of AUM) and US$26m YTD.
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Gold inflows suggest sentiment is fragile as oil outflows accelerate on profit-taking
Commodity ETP Weekly – Gold inflows suggest sentiment is fragile as oil outflows accelerate on profit-taking
• Gold leads ytd precious metals inflows above US$1.5bn, as investor sentiment remains fragile.
• Oil outflows accelerated last week, as investors booked profits.
• Commodity price moves will depend on the US Federal Reserve meeting last week. Whether the central bank hikes rates or not will be crucial for investor sentiment and the direction for the US Dollar.
Gold leads precious metals inflows above US1.5bn in 2016. Physical gold ETPs recorded inflows for the 10th consecutive week totaling US$114.1mn. Cyclical assets, particularly equity markets, struggled to make headway, despite recent improvements in global economic activity. However, aggressive stimulus from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) surprised the market and gave fresh impetus to the gold price, as investors believe that real rates will remain under pressure for some time to come.
Silver, platinum and palladium outshine gold. Industrially-linked precious metals outperformed gold last week, a potential sign that pessimistic sentiment may be bottoming. Investors appear somewhat more cautious and the third consecutive weekly inflows into silver and platinum totalled US$43.1mn and US$12.5mn, respectively. While palladium was the best performer within the precious metals sector, it is the only metal to see net outflows over the course of 2016. Nonetheless, we expect momentum to gather pace as market volatility moderates and industrial demand picks up in line as global auto sales remain solid.
Profit-taking in oil ETPs sees largest outflows since April 2015. The International Energy Agency announced last week that a bottom in the oil price has potentially been reached. Nonetheless, investors appear unwilling to risk hard won gains, divestingUS67mn last week from long oil exchange traded products. Both Brent and WTI crude prices reached the highest level since early December 2015, but volatility remains elevated and could see gains reverse course as risk appetite is fragile. Although the Energy Information Administration reported that US production in December 2015 was the first year-on-year decline in over four years, stockpiles are at record levels (since 1982). Additionally, the weekly increase in stockpiles was the largest on record, indicating that demand still remains deficient to absorb supply.
Key events to watch this week. Central bank meetings will again take centre stage this week after the surprise moves last week from the ECB and RBNZ. The Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are all holding policy meetings, but the market will be focussed on the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Commodity price direction will be dictated by two things directly related to the Fed’s decision: investor sentiment and the US Dollar. The last economic data release ahead of the Fed’s meeting, US retail sales and inflation, could be key to whether the central bank raises rates or not. Consumers have been an area of strength, boosted by low oil prices and improving jobs market. If this continues next week, the Fed could take (justified) action. We expect that the chance of a rate rise is still a distinct possibility despite the market pricing in less than a 10% chance of a hike. If the Fed hikes, expect gold to continue its move higher as sentiment slumps, despite a stronger USD.
Video Presentation
Martin Arnold, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
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