Etikett: Saudi Arabia

Capturing opportunities in a transforming Saudi Arabia

Capturing opportunities in a transforming Saudi Arabia ETFYou can now gain pure exposure to the Saudi Arabian equity market via our new Invesco MSCI Saudi Arabia UCITS ETF. This passive ETF is the first in Europe to offer targeted exposure to the largest economy in the Middle East. Capturing opportunities in a transforming Saudi Arabia.

Why Saudi Arabia?

  • Economy is undergoing major transformation

“Vision 2030” programme of social and economic reforms is intended to diversify the Saudi economy away from such a heavy reliance on oil and government funding. Domestically, this includes increasing use of solar and other renewable energy sources, and increasing the number of Saudis in private employment.

Internationally, they are trying to leverage the country’s unique geographical position between three continents, and encouraging major domestic corporations to expand across borders and into global markets. They also want to attract foreign investors and visitors.

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*Source: vision2030.gov.sa

  • IPO pipeline, including Aramco

The kingdom is planning to sell 5% of state-owned Saudi Aramco, partly to help fund the reform programmes. This could raise upwards of $100 billion, and is likely to be the largest IPO in history. This along with several other significant IPOs in the pipeline will expand the diversification of the index composition, open investment opportunities and increase the importance of the Saudi equity market for international investors.

  • Inclusion to MSCI Emerging Markets index should drive inflows

Since 2015, the government has introduced reforms to make it easier for foreign investors to gain meaningful access to the Saudi equity market. These have included easing requirements for foreign investors and bringing trade settlement more in line with global standards.
As a result, MSCI is considering reclassifying Saudi Arabia to Emerging Market status (from Standalone Market) when it announces the result of its annual review on 20 June 2018. If successful, as widely expected, Saudi Arabia will be included in the MSCI Emerging Market index from June 2019.

MSCI suggests the weighting of Saudi Arabia will be around 2.3% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, placing it behind just South Africa and Russia among countries in the EMEA region. However, this proportion would rise significantly following the planned IPOs of Aramco and others.

  • What happens next?

Although past performance is in no way an indicator for the future, it is still worth looking at what happened when other Middle East countries went through similar exercises. Both the MSCI United Arab Emirates (UAE) and MSCI Qatar indices saw strong performances following the announcement by MSCI that they were going to be included in the Emerging Markets index.
The country indices benefited from investors beginning to increase exposure leading up to their inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets index a year later.

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns.

Source: Bloomberg. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future returns

Invesco MSCI Saudi Arabia UCITS ETF

This is the first Saudi Arabia ETF listed in Europe. It provides passive exposure to an MSCI index that has been capped to meet UCITS criteria and avoid over-concentration.

About the index

The MSCI Saudi Arabia 20/35 index comprises 32** large- and mid-cap stocks, covering approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalisation in Saudi Arabia. To ensure the index meets UCITS diversification requirements and avoids overconcentration:

  • The weight of the largest stock is constrained at 35%, and all other companies at 20%
  • An investability screen is applied to determine the universe of eligible index constituents
  • The index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly.
    **Source: MSCI, as at 14 June 2018

Investment risk factors

As this is an emerging markets ETF, investors should be prepared to accept a higher degree of risk than for an ETF investing in the securities of issuers in other more established economies or developed countries, as difficulties in dealing, settlement and custody could arise.

The Fund is exposed to the risk of bankruptcy, or any other type of default of the counterparty related to any trading transaction entered into by the Fund.

In order to reach its investment objective, the Fund enters into swap agreements which provide the performance of the Reference Index, and may imply a range of risks which could lead to an adjustment or even the early termination of the swap agreement.

On-exchange liquidity may be limited due insufficient demand, Reference Index suspension, a decision by one of the relevant stock exchanges, or a breach by the market maker of respective stock exchange requirements and guidelines. This may result in share prices that differ significantly from the NAV.

Important information

Investors should note that the price of your investment may go down as well as up. As a result you may not get back the amount of capital you invest.

This communication contains information that is for discussion purposes only, and is intended only for professional investors pursuant to Directive 2004/39/EC (MIFID) Annex II Section I in Austria, Finland, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the UK, Qualified Clients in Israel, and Qualified Investors in Switzerland. The products may only be offered and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and prospectus (the “offering documents”) and marketing materials may only be distributed in other jurisdictions in compliance with private placement rules and local regulations. This communication is not for distribution to, or for the attention of, US or Canadian persons.

Without limitation, this communication does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. When making an investment decision, you should rely solely on the final documentation and any prospectus relating to the transaction and not this summary.

Investment strategies involve numerous risks. Any calculations and charts set out herein are indicative only, make certain assumptions and no guarantee is given that future performance or results will reflect the information herein. Investors should consult their own business, tax, legal and accounting advisors with respect to this proposed transaction and they should refrain from entering into a transaction unless they have fully understood the associated risks and have independently determined that the transaction is appropriate for them. In no way should we be deemed to be holding out as financial advisers or fiduciaries of the recipient hereof.

UCITS ETF’s units / shares purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to UCITS ETF. Investors must buy and sell units / shares on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units / shares and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them.

The funds or securities referred to herein are not sponsored, endorsed, or promoted by MSCI, and MSCI bears no liability with respect to any such funds or securities or any index on which such funds or securities are based. The prospectus contains a more detailed description of the limited relationship MSCI has with Invesco and any related funds.

The offering documents and financial reports for the products are available at etf.invesco.com.

In Israel, the contents of this document are restricted to Qualified Clients (pursuant to the First Schedule to the Israeli Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995) only and are not intended for retail or private investors who are not Qualified Clients.

German investors may obtain the offering documents free of charge in paper or electronic form from the issuer or from the German information and paying agent (Marcard, Stein & Co AG, Ballindamm 36, 20095 Hamburg, Germany).

The representative and paying agent for the sub-funds of Invesco Markets plc, Invesco Markets II plc, and PIMCO Fixed Income Source ETFs plc in Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland. The offering documents, articles of incorporation and annual and semi-annual reports may be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland. The ETFs are domiciled in Ireland.

The publication of the supplement in Italy does not imply any judgment by CONSOB on an investment in a product. The list of products listed in Italy, and the offering documents for and the supplement of each ETF are available: (i) at etf.invesco.com (along with the audited annual report and the unaudited half-year reports); and (ii) on the website of the Italian Stock Exchange borsaitaliana.it.

All investment decisions must be based only on information contained in the prospectus, the KIID/KID, the supplement and in the most recent audited annual report or unaudited semi-annual report. Investors should read the specific risks of any product they plan to invest in, which are noted in the prospectus, the KIID and the supplement. Past performance does not guarantee similar future performance. For details on fees and other charges, please consult the prospectus, the KIID and the supplement of each product.

This communication has been communicated by Invesco UK Services Limited, Perpetual Park, Perpetual Park Drive, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, RG9 1HH, authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; Invesco Asset Management Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, 60322 Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Invesco Asset Management SA, 16-18 rue de Londres, 75009 Paris, France; and Invesco Asset Management Limited, Perpetual Park, Perpetual Park Drive, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, RG9 1HH, United Kingdom. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Oil: Backwardation to the future

Oil futures curves have been in backwardation – when the closer futures contract can be sold for a higher price than it costs to buy a futures contract with a further expiry date, resulting in a profit for the investor – for most of the past year, driven by perceived tightness in short-term supply1. This has provided investors with ‘roll yield’ on top of the gains made from spot price movements in oil.

While we believe that the oil market is balanced at present, there is supply tightness in specific areas – especially in heavier crudes – and this could be enough to ensure that the oil futures curve remains mostly in backwardation going forward. Here’s a closer look at current oil market supply and demand dynamics.

Oil curve backwardation

Recent curve backwardation has largely been engineered by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Since January 2017, the oil cartel has restricted the supply of oil by assigning its members and partners a quota for the amount of oil that they produce. Although the cartel has historically had a poor history of complying with quotas, this time it has done exceptionally well. Part of the reason for this, is that up until June 2018, each country was allocated an individual quota (rather than a group-wide limit) and this helped to restrict oil supply.

Another reason OPEC has done well in complying with quotas is because of unintended production disruptions. Recently, Venezuela has experienced an economic implosion, and this has impacted oil production significantly. Supply disruptions in Libya and Nigeria have also contributed to OPEC supply volatility.

Can backwardation last?

In June 2018, OPEC abandoned individual country quotas, so the level of quota compliance that we have seen over the past year may not last if the organisation reverts to its old ways. This could explain why the very front of the Brent futures curve went back into contango – when it costs more to buy the new futures contract than the amount received from selling the old futures contract – in July and August. Indeed, Saudi Arabia – the largest OPEC nation – has clearly expanded production since the end of the country-quota system, as have other countries.

After going back to an all-backwardated curve, the short end of the curve is now back in contango, a move underpinned by fears of over supply from increasing rig count in the US, as well as delays in the full implementation of sanctions on Iran. Despite those recent developments, we do not expect them to significantly impact long term supply. While the front end of the curve will remain prone to shifts, we do not see it to durably get back to a mostly contangoed curves.

Figure 1: Year-on-year difference in OPEC oil production

Source: Bloomberg, WisdomTree, data available as of close 05 October 2018.
Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

Tightness concentrated in heavy crudes

In relation to supply disruption, supply of the ‘heavier’ crudes is most at risk, in our view. Venezuela, Iran and Canada produce ‘heavy’ (low API gravity), ‘sour’ (high sulphur) crudes and these countries experienced the bulk of supply disruption this year.

Most of the world’s growth in crude oil supply is currently from US tight oil, which is ‘light’ (high API gravity) and ‘sweet’ (low sulphur). So, even though global oil supply is close to balance at the headline level, growth in oil production is uneven, with declines in supply of heavy crudes, and gains in supply of light crudes2.

Moreover, while US tight oil is seeing supply growth, there are limitations to this growth. Infrastructure needs to grow in lock-step with growth in oil production, and infrastructure limitations could slow the pace at which US shale can help satisfy global oil needs.

Demand remains strong for now

Looking at forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), demand for oil looks set to remain healthy, with the IEA expecting oil demand to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2018, and 1.5 mb/d in 2019 (following 1.5 mb/d growth in 2017). Over the medium term, the dearth of capital investment in oil production is likely to lead to tightness if demand continues to remain robust.

Oil futures likely to remain in backwardation

While we believe that the market is in balance at present, there is supply tightness in specific areas and this could be enough to ensure that the futures curve remains mostly in backwardation.

We don’t believe that a new wave of supply is forthcoming as a lack of investment in oil exploration and production should keep supply contained, and it may only take another supply shock to Libya or to Canada to cast doubts on supply. We also think that demand will remain robust, assuming today’s bullish demand expectations are not unfounded.

Source

1 For a full description of backwardation, contango, roll yields, spot return, total return, excess return and collateral yield please see Costs and Performance Tab on our ETPedia page.

2 Energy Information Administration, WisdomTree, data available as of 04 October 2019.

This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Introducing the first Saudi Arabia ETF in Europe

Introducing the first Saudi Arabia ETF in Europe

Saudi Arabia is in the early stages of a huge social and economic transformation, and you can now gain exposure to the growth opportunities through our new fund. This is the first ETF in Europe that provides access to the Middle East’s largest economy. Introducing the first Saudi Arabia ETF in Europe.

Find out:

• What’s driving the growth in Saudi Arabia
• Why we think it’s worth considering investing in Saudi Arabia
• About the index and our Saudi Arabia ETF

Product description

The Invesco MSCI Saudi Arabia UCITS ETF aims to provide the performance of the MSCI Saudi Arabia 20/35 Capped Index, after the impact of fees.

The MSCI Saudi Arabia 20/35 Capped Index captures the large and mid-cap securities of the Saudi Arabia market. The weight of the largest group entity in the index is constrained to 35% and the weights of all other entities are constrained to a maximum of 20%. The index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Saudi Arabia.

Find out more

Investment risks

Investors should note that the price of your investment may go down as well as up. As a result, you may not get back the amount of capital you invest.

As this is an emerging markets ETF, investors should be prepared to accept a higher degree of risk than for an ETF investing in the securities of issuers in other more established economies or developed countries, as difficulties in dealing, settlement and custody could arise.

The Fund is exposed to the risk of bankruptcy, or any other type of default of the counterparty related to any trading transaction entered into by the Fund.

In order to reach its investment objective, the Fund enters into swap agreements which provide the performance of the Reference Index, and may imply a range of risks which could lead to an adjustment or even the early termination of the swap agreement.

On-exchange liquidity may be limited due insufficient demand, Reference Index suspension, a decision by one of the relevant stock exchanges, or a breach by the market maker of respective stock exchange requirements and guidelines. This may result in share prices that differ significantly from the NAV.

Important information

By accepting this document, you consent to communicating with us in English, unless you inform us otherwise.

This email contains information that is for discussion purposes only, and is intended only for professional investors pursuant to Directive 2004/39/EC (MIFID) Annex II Section in Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the UK, Qualified Clients in Israel, and Qualified Investors in Switzerland. Without limitation, this e-mail does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction. When making an investment decision, you should rely solely on the final documentation and any prospectus relating to the transaction and not this summary. Investment strategies involve numerous risks. Any calculations and charts set out herein are indicative only, make certain assumptions and no guarantee is given that future performance or results will reflect the information herein. Investors should consult their own business, tax, legal and accounting advisors with respect to this proposed transaction and they should refrain from entering into a transaction unless they have fully understood the associated risks and have independently determined that the transaction is appropriate for them. In no way should we be deemed to be holding out as financial advisers or fiduciaries of the recipient hereof.

UCITS ETF’s units / shares purchased on the secondary market cannot usually be sold directly back to UCITS ETF. Investors must buy and sell units / shares on a secondary market with the assistance of an intermediary (e.g. a stockbroker) and may incur fees for doing so. In addition, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying units / shares and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them.

The offering documents and financial reports for the products are available at etf.invesco.com.

German investors may obtain the offering documents free of charge in paper or electronic form from the issuer or from the German information and paying agent (Marcard, Stein & Co AG, Ballindamm 36, 20095 Hamburg, Germany).

In Israel, the contents of this document are restricted to Qualified Clients (pursuant to the First Schedule to the Israeli Regulation of Investment Advice, Investment Marketing and Investment Portfolio Management Law, 1995) only and are not intended for retail or private investors who are not Qualified Clients.

The representative and paying agent for the sub-funds of Invesco Markets plc, Invesco Markets II plc, and PIMCO Fixed Income Source ETFs plc in Switzerland is BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland. The offering documents, articles of incorporation and annual and semi-annual reports may be obtained free of charge from the representative in Switzerland. The ETFs are domiciled in Ireland.

The publication of the supplement in Italy does not imply any judgment by CONSOB on an investment in a product. The list of products listed in Italy, and the offering documents for and the supplement of each ETF are available: (i) at etf.invesco.com (along with the audited annual report and the unaudited half-year reports); and (ii) on the website of the Italian Stock Exchange borsaitaliana.it.

All investment decisions must be based only on information contained in the prospectus, the KIID/KID, the supplement and in the most recent audited annual report or unaudited semi-annual report. Investors should read the specific risks of any product they plan to invest in, which are noted in the prospectus, the KIID and the supplement. Past performance does not guarantee similar future performance. For details on fees and other charges, please consult the prospectus, the KIID and the supplement of each product.

Gold, Oil, and Inflation in 2018

Gold, Oil, and Inflation in 2018

Investment Insights December 2017  Gold, Oil, and Inflation in 2018

Summary

  • Gold may remain flat for 2018 but remains an attractive tool to hedge against potential market volatility and geopolitical risks.
  • Oil prices may weaken due to rising US production despite falling global inventories and elevated political risk premia.
  • Inflation may persistently rise throughout 2018.

Macro Outlook

The world is currently experiencing synchronous growth supported by massive central bank stimulus. There are, however, indications that developed markets are likely close to their cycle highs, and a period of slower growth potentially lies ahead. While we think that the world economy will escape a significant upset in 2018, there remain formidable tail risks.

Navigating the stretched valuations in both equity and bond markets and the potential pitfalls of low volatility will be a critical objective for investors in 2018. The unwinding of monetary policy brings risks to both bonds and equities, likely renewing appetite for alternative assets classes such as commodities, real assets, and precious metals.

Earnings may face headwinds from tighter US monetary policy and wage growth. As the US jobs market continues to tighten in 2018, wage pressures may rise significantly and reinforce inflation momentum due to the need for businesses to increase prices.

The US central bank may continue to raise rates in 2018. That comes on top of the balance-sheet run-off that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has already announced. Although some market participants think that under a new Chair, the Fed will may become more dovish, we believe the central bank will remain data-dependent and trained staff economists’ analysis will become more influential in the Board’s decision-making. In light of strengthening domestic demand and a tight labor market, the inflationary potential will be hard to ignore.

Another potential consequence of tighter US policy is the negative impact on emerging market economic growth, and in particular China. Higher borrowing, input costs and currency volatility may weigh on emerging market growth.

Gold Outlook

Our base case fair-value for gold is broadly flat over the coming year, as support from rising inflation will counter the downward pressure from rising interest rates. Despite policy interest rates rising in 2017, the US dollar has depreciated and treasury yields have declined. We expect these paradoxical trends to abate in 2018, and thus weigh on gold prices. However, we believe three rate hikes in 2018 will be required to keep inflation expectations anchored.

Exhibit 1: 2018 gold price outlook scenarios

Most of the variation of the gold price in our bull and bear cases (compared to our base case) comes from assumptions around speculative positioning. Many measures of market volatility are currently subdued. However, several risks – both political and financial – exist. Sentiment towards gold could shift quite widely depending on which of these views dominate market psyche.

Risks which may push demand for gold futures higher benefiting prices include continued sabre-rattling from North Korea; tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran escalate; a disorderly unwind of credit in China; political populism and elections in Europe; and a spike in market volatility as yield-trades unwind.

Currently investor positioning is elevated due to investor fears around continued sabre-rattling between US/Japan and North Korea and some of the tensions in the Middle East. These concerns could fall away if new developments on these geopolitical issues do not resurface. We have observed that when such geopolitical issues simmer in the background, political risk-premia tends to dissipate from the price of gold. It requires keeping the issues at the forefront of market psyche for the premia to endure.

Oil Outlook

Many market commentators argued a year ago that OPEC’s strategy was to flip the oil futures curve from contango to backwardation. Contango, they argued, provided the incentive for US shale producers to keep pumping out oil despite depressed spot prices because prices for future delivery were higher and so they could store oil today and lock into higher prices at a future date. Contango therefore would see continuous increases in inventory. The futures curve is now in backwardation.

Inventories have been declining across the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development). Most of the declines have come from floating storage (which is the most expensive form of storage).We are unlikely to see the decline in inventories continue however. At current prices, US production will likely expand substantially. US shale oil production can break-even at close to US$40/barrel (bbl). With WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil currently trading at US$55/bbl, there is plenty of headroom for profitability and we expect a strong expansion in supply.

In 2018, US production may hit an all-time high, surpassing the cycle peak reached before the price war in 2014 and above the 10 million barrel mark last hit in 1970. There is little indication that the backwardation in futures curves is going to stop US production from expanding.

Exhibit 2: Oil supply and demand outlook

In October 2017, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and its 10 non-OPEC partners posted their best level of compliance with the production curb deal to date. However, looking at the detail, it is countries like Iraq who managed to step-up the most to improve compliance. Iraq’s compliance levels jumped from 22% in September to 85% in October, making a strong contribution to the rise in OPEC’s overall compliance (95% in September to 106% in October).

That is unlikely to be repeated given that the supply disruptions stemming from the Kurdish region’s vote for independence was the driver. We doubt the threat to cut off oil production from the Kurdish region is credible. Turkey, the main buyer of the oil has not followed through with threats to shut-down pipelines that take oil out of the region.

OPEC and its non-OPEC partners announced on November 30th, that they will extend the deal to cut supply from October 2016 by 1.8 million barrels to the end of 2018. We think that compliance in this extended deal will fall short of expectations. Russia’s insistence on discussing an exit strategy and having a review in June 2018 indicates that the patience of non-OPEC partners in the deal is wearing thin.With the US expanding supply and OPEC likely to under deliver on its promise to consistently curb production, we expect the supply to grow. At the same time, demand is unlikely to continue to grow at the current pace, with prices having gained 33% over the past year. Q4 2017 may be the last quarter of deficit for a while. Surpluses are going to contribute to higher OECD inventories.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, in his drive to modernize the Saudi economy, has taken aim at corruption in the country. With many of the economic and political elite having been caught up in the investigation, there is a risk that the fragile consensus that held the Saudi state together for many decades could unravel. Saudi Arabia has accused Iran and Lebanon of committing acts of war. Saudi Arabia initiated a military intervention in Yemen in 2015 that has been seen as a ‘proxy war’ with Iran given Iran’s support for rebel Houthis that had toppled Yemen’s former government. Recent developments show that this proxy war is escalating.

The market perceives both the internal and external conflicts in Saudi Arabia as a source of disruption in oil production in the region. We believe that the geopolitical premium priced into oil is likely to be transient unless a war actually breaks out. The Saudi proxy war with Iran has been raging for over two years, with little reflection in the price of oil until recently. Unless investors are constantly reminded of the risks, the premia tends to evaporate within a matter of weeks.

Inflation Outlook

Inflation has been subdued in 2017, despite many signs of cyclical strength, but a large number of idiosyncratic factors account for this apparent weakness in price movements. Dominant wireless phone service providers changing pricing; solar eclipse changing the timing of hotel stays; severe hurricane disruptions; budget airlines opening new routes are some of the idiosyncratic factors that are unlikely to be repeated.

Additionally, the calculation of owner occupied equivalent rent has caused some distortions in the inflation numbers, as it is sensitive to energy prices. With volatility in energy prices having fallen, we expect these distortions to subside. The unemployment rate is at its lowest in 16 years and a healthy number of jobs are being added every month (notwithstanding hurricane disruptions). The strength in the labor market may show up in inflation as per its traditional relationship.We expect US inflation to rise to 2.4% in June 2018 and 2.6% by December 2018 (from 2.2% in September 2017). These levels will likely be uncomfortably high for the Fed, but given the lags in policy and price response, there is little the Fed can do next year to stop it (the inflationary pressure has been built up this year).

Important Risks

The statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would be profitable in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Risk premia is the difference between the expected return on a security or portfolio and the ”riskless rate of interest” (the certain return on a riskless security.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses. All investing involves risk, including the loss of principal.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an intergovernmental economic organisation with 35 member countries, founded in 1960 to stimulate economic progress and world trade. Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is an intergovernmental organization of 14 nations as of May 2017, founded in 1960 in Baghdad by the first five members, and headquartered since 1965 in Vienna.

The Federal Reserve System, often referred to as the Federal Reserve or simply ”the Fed,” is the central bank of the United States. It was created by the Congress to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial system. Backwardation is a theory developed in respect to the price of a futures contract and the contract’s time to expire; as the contract approaches expiration, the futures contract trades at a higher price compared to when the contract was further away from expiration. Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is above the expected future spot price.

Maxwell Gold is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.

ALPS Distributors, Inc.

Political premium provides temporary support for gold and oil

Political premium provides temporary support for gold and oil

Oil and gold prices have risen 2.2% and 0.85%, respectively, in the past three days as a result of developments in Saudi Arabia and Donald Trump’s meeting in Asia. Unless geopolitical risks remain elevated, we expect the prices of both commodities to ease. Political premium provides temporary support for gold and oil

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, in his drive to modernise the Saudi economy, has taken aim at corruption in the country. With many of the economic and political elite having been caught up in the investigation, there is a risk that the fragile consensus that held the Saudi state together for many decades could unravel.

Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of committing acts of war for supplying the missile that Yemen used in an attempted attack on Saudi Arabia’s airport over the weekend. Saudi Arabia initiated a military intervention in Yemen in 2015 that has been seen as a ‘proxy war’ with Iran given the latter country’s support for rebel Houthis that had toppled Yemen’s former government. On Monday Saudi Arabia also labelled the acts of aggression by the Iran-backed Lebanese Shi’ite group Hezbollah as a declaration of war. These accusations of acts of war have increased the discord in the region, in what some people believe will be the precursor to an actual war between two leading oil producing countries.

Internal and external conflicts in Saudi Arabia

The market perceives both the internal and external conflicts in Saudi Arabia as a source of disruption in oil production. Indeed even if there is no physical disruption to production in the immediate future, the deterrent to international investors providing the capital needed to expand production, could also tighten supplies in the distant future.

Gold has also risen in the wake of increasing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. In addition, US President Trump’s comments during his trip to Asia has stoked concerns about a military confrontation with North Korea. The sabre-rattling that looked like it had calmed down over the past month is resurging. President Trump is expected to place pressure on President Xi in his visit to China today to cut ties with the rogue nuclear state.

We believe that the geopolitical premium priced into gold and oil is likely to be transient unless a war actually breaks out. Based on experiences over the past year, unless risks are crystallised, the geopolitical premium will fade away. On numerous occasions in the past year, sabre-rattling between the US and North Korea has become heated and then calmed down (but the underlying risk of a miscalculation between the two nuclear states has never diminished). The Saudi proxy war with Iran has been raging for over two years, with little reflection in the price of oil until recently. Unless investors are constantly reminded of the risks, the premia tends to evaporate within a matter of weeks.

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).