Precious metals favoured in a week of volatility

Precious metals favoured in a week of volatility ETF SecuritiesPrecious metals favoured in a week of volatility

ETF Securities – Precious metals favoured in a week of volatility

Highlights

  • Gold and silver inflows dominated in a week of political volatility.
  • Profit-taking follows rise in oil price.
  • Investors appeared to sell diversified commodity baskets as volatility intensified.

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A rally in gold and silver prices piqued investor interest in precious metal ETPs. A 2.8% rise in gold prices and a 0.3% rally in silver prices last week aided inflows into precious metal ETPs. Silver saw a second consecutive week of inflows of US$8.3mn. Gold inflows of US$22.5mn reversed most of the prior week’s outflows. Gold prices started rallying mid-week when the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) released it latest policy statement and projections. The market interpreted the Fed’s position as dovish, as the median forecast for end of year rates had not changed.

The US Dollar basket declined by 0.65% on the day of the release of the statement, providing a tailwind for precious metal prices. Although we think the market generally missed the fact the dispersion of dots in the ‘dot plot’ (the map of the FOMC participant’s views on where policy rates will end the year), shifted significantly from December 2017, with an equal number of participants now expecting four rate hikes in total this year as those expecting three. It will likely only take a small nudge to get more Fed participants to expect higher rates. Gold rallied harder towards the end of the week as its haven quality came into focus due to fears of a trade war intensifying. On Thursday, the Trump Administration announced it will imposing tariffs on Chinese imports. Details are vague, but the Administration is expected to offer further information in the next 15 days. Up to US$60bn in annual imports from China are targeted with a 25% tariff.

The Chinese response so far has been limited, with the Ministry of Commerce only announcing a reciprocal tariff on 128 US products accounting for US$3bn in imports. However, that does not preclude further action. The market fears that this could escalate into a full blown trade war. Also on Thursday, former United Nations ambassador John Bolton joined the Trump Administration, replacing H.R. McMaster as national security adviser. He is seen a policy hawk, who will take a tough stance on Iran and North Korea. Bolton believes that the current Iranian nuclear deal is irreconcilable. Having such a hawk as an advisor to the President appears to have raised the geopolitical premium in gold price.

Political volatility drove US$65mn out of diversified commodity baskets as investors considered de-risking and taking profit on earlier gains. That outflow reversed all of the inflows from the prior two weeks and was the largest outflow since June 2017. However, some investors saw last week’s price capitulation in cyclicals assets as a buying opportunity. For example there were US$10.6mn inflows into copper ETPs as the price of copper fell 3.7%. That was the highest inflow in seven weeks.

Oil prices rallied 5.5%, driving profit-taking from crude oil ETPs. An unexpected draw on inventory ignited oil prices mid-week, and then the instalment of an Iran-hawk into the Trump Administration sent prices substantially higher as a geopolitical premium entered the oil price. ETP investors continued to take profit, with US$90.4mn of withdrawals. That marked the highest outflow since November 2017. At the same time there were US$5.2mn of inflows into short crude oil ETPs, the highest since December 2017.

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).
The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

Commodities buck cyclical shakedown

Commodities buck cyclical shakedown

Commodity Monthly Monitor – Commodities buck cyclical shakedown

Your reference guide to commodity markets. Includes the latest outlook for each commodity sector and major developments for individual commodities.

Summary

  • After capitulating in 2017, agricultural prices are picking up momentum in 2018.
  • Industrial metals continue to outperform based on strong fundamentals.
  • The energy complex was a drag on commodity performance last month.
  • Silver prices to play catch up as fundamentals improve.

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Summary

While the S&P500, cryptocurrencies and bond prices fell last month, commodities posted gains. The S&P500 volatility index is now back to its normal territory after a protracted period of being subdued. Cyclical commodities like industrial metals however, continue to trade higher on firm fundamentals. Gains were not homogenous in commodities: the unsustainable rise in oil prices in January faltered in February and palladium has begun to unwind, coming closer to parity with platinum after consistently trading above since October 2017.As China re-opens after the New Year celebrations, better quality data from the largest consumer of commodities will come due.

Year-on-year comparisons of data from China in the months of January and February are very difficult because the timing of lunar New Year is not the same each year on the Georgian calendar. However, the Caixin China manufacturing purchasing managers index indicates that manufacturing output hit a 13-month high in January, setting a strong scene for industrial metals.The commodity complex was aided by a softer US Dollar. However, Federal Open Market Committee minutes (released after the cut-off of data in this report), indicate the US central bank is ready to raise rates faster than the market had previously assumed. That could lead to US Dollar appreciation if other central banks fail to reflect a similarly strong policy message

Rock bottom?

After capitulating in 2017, agricultural prices are picking up momentum in 2018. Prices have fallen so low that any hint of ‘good news’ appears to spark a rally.Industrial metals continue to outperform based on strong fundamentals. Despite the onslaught of the global equity market correction, industrial metals recouped their initial losses as fundamentals prevailed. Ongoing supply deficits for most metals coupled with strong demand bode well for the sector.

Commodity performance last month

The energy complex was a drag on commodity performance last month. A return to more normal weather in the US dampened natural gas prices while oil gave back unsustainable gains from January. The only area of the energy complex to post an increase was the price of carbon as environmental regulation is expected to address a glut in permits. Silver prices to play catch up as fundamentals improve.

The gold to silver ratio is currently at 81 (as on 16 February 2018), its highest level since April 2016. We expect silver prices to catch up owing to the continued strength in the industrial cycle and a constrained mine supply. Although the fundamentals remain strong : ongoing supply deficits and buoyant auto sales in China, we would not rule out further price correction from current levels given the sharp run up in prices in 2017.

For more information contact:

Catarina Donat Marques
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 20 7448 4386
E catarina.donatmarques@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

The analyses in the above tables are purely for information purposes. They do not reflect the performance of any ETF Securities’ products . The futures and roll returns are not necessarily investable.

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

 

Largest weekly outflows from Diversified Commodities ETPs for six months

Largest weekly outflows from Diversified Commodities ETPs for six months

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Largest weekly outflows from Diversified Commodities ETPs for six months

  • Largest weekly outflow from Diversified Commodities ETPs for six months (US$80 mn)
  • Profit taking in Precious Metals ETPs after strong YTD performance
  • Strong inflows in Equity ETPs driven by Tech (US$20mn) and Europe (US$19mn)
  • Opportunistic inflows into Crude Oil (US$15mn)

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Largest weekly outflow from Diversified Commodity ETPs for six months (US$80 mn). The Diversified Commodity ETPs had the largest weekly outflow since November 2016. Rising inventory levels among individual commodities such as oil, iron ore and sugar have been a drag on prices this year. There was an additional trigger last week when Moody’s downgraded China’s sovereign credit ratings one notch due to concerns over gross debt levels and slowing growth. Among major asset classes, commodities have been among the worst performers this year. Energy, soft commodities and agriculture were the worst performing sub-sectors in May, with livestock and precious metals the best. Commodity Futures Trading Commission positioning data had highlighted commodities reaching a peak bullishness sentiment end-February 2017. This bullish sentiment has since unwound considerably, remaining just above it’s long-term average balance between bull and bears.

Outflows in Gold ETP (US$ 52mn) and Silver ETP (US$26mn). After their strong outperformance this year, we saw profit-taking in both Silver and Gold ETPs . Gold prices are up 11% and Silver prices 8% year-to-date. Another catalyst for profit-taking is the upcoming June 14th Federal Reserve meeting, where the market is still placing a near certainty to a hike.

Industrial metals react to China Debt downgrade. There were US$30mn outflows from the Industrial Metals basket last week. Industrial metals were down on average -2% following China’s sovereign downgrade by Moody’s. In addition to the downgrade, consensus is expecting the upcoming May industrial production and fixed asset investment data in China to show a slowdown in growth.

Equity inflows driven by Technology (US$20mn) and Europe ETPs (US$19mn). Technology related ETPs (Cybersecurity and Robo) had their 12th straight week of inflows, marking US$91mn of inflows year-to-date, . Investor interest in Tech continues to be strong as tech indices break new post-dot-com bubble highs. Last week also saw inflows in both long and short European ETPs as investors reacted to news that there could be an earlier than expected Italian election. European economic momentum continues to look the strongest globally on survey data such as the PMIs.

Opportunistic inflows into Crude Oil (US$15 mn). Oil prices fell after the May 25th OPEC meeting as the market was expecting more aggressive production cuts. There were some opportunistic inflows on the back of the price drops.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data.

Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance.

Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance.

The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision.

ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.

If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Bargain-hunting continues among ETP investors

Bargain-hunting continues among ETP investors

ETF Securities Weekly Flows Analysis – Bargain-hunting continues among ETP investors

  • Oil ETPs saw massive inflows of US$130m after a sharp decline in US crude inventories.
  • Silver prices are attractive relative to gold, both have seen inflows of US$130m.
  • ETP Investors reduce their exposure to broad commodity ETPs, preferring to take tactical positions on individual commodities.

Crude oil ETPs saw US$128mn inflows representing 7% of crude assets under management, as investors see buying opportunities in recent price weakness. US crude inventories sharply declined (5.2mn barrels) last week, resulting in a 3% rebound of oil prices. Although inventory has been declining for five consecutive weeks, expanding US production led to withdrawals being low by seasonal standards up until last week. Despite the OPEC representatives’ comments about an extension of the production cuts to beyond the end of the year, the oil cartel revised upwards its estimates of the growth in non-OPEC supply from 400k to 950k barrels per day. As a result, market impact of the OPEC’s strategy remains subdued.

Strong inflows into gold and silver, totalling US$130mn despite sharp price declines. The very low volatility in equity markets suggests high risk appetite among investors, driving the gold price down by 0.4% last week, close to our year-end 2017 fair value of US$1230. While around 80% of silver’s price is explained by its correlation to gold, supply deficits, growing industrial demand and a tightening in exchange inventory provide upside potential for silver. Silver prices are relatively attractive compared to gold. We estimate silver’s fair value to be around US$20/oz by year end, presenting a potential upside of 20% from current price of US$16.4/oz.

US$18.2mn outflow from all commodity ETPs and US$25.7mn of outflows from industrial metal ETPs. We believe some investors are reducing their long exposure to broad commodity baskets in order to play more opportunistic trades such as crude oil and silver. However, industrial metals saw outflows of US$25.7mn in the past week as industrial metals dropped 2.4% month-to-date. Market participants expect a slight slowdown in Chinese economic activity in May which has also been weighing on metal prices. The slight disappointment from Chinese retail sales (10.7% vs. cons:10.8%yoy, prev:10.9%) and industrial production (6.5% vs cons:7.0%yoy, prev:7.6%) prints in April may continue to weigh on industrial metals’ prices.

Despite the trade weighted USD remaining weak we have seen inflows of US$35m of inflows in to USD long positions and outflows in short positions of US$19m over the last 3 weeks highlighting a potential contrarian position building, most of the positioning has been against the EUR.

US$9mn of inflows into robotic and cyber thematic ETPs. Robotic ETPs saw US$5.2mn of inflows last week and cyber security ETPs also saw inflows of US$2.8mn last week. Year-to-date, cyber and robotic thematic ETPs attracted US$300mn of inflows reflecting the growing appetite from long-term investors.

Video Presentation

Morgane Delledonne, Fixed Income Strategist at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority.

This is a strictly privileged and confidential communication between ETFS UK and its selected client. This communication contains information addressed only to a specific individual and is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person other than the named addressee. This communication (i) is provided for informational purposes only, (ii) should not be construed in any manner as any solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or any related financial instruments, and (iii) should not be construed in any manner as a public offer of any securities or any related financial instruments. If you are not the named addressee, you should not disseminate, distribute or copy this communication. Please notify the sender immediately if you have mistakenly received this communication. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the ”qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Any historical performance included in this document may be based on back testing. Back tested performance is purely hypothetical and is provided in this document solely for informational purposes. Back tested data does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual or future performance. Historical performance is not an indication of or a guide to future performance. The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Risk Warnings

Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication. If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.

Strong PMIs support silver prices

Silver

Strong PMIs support silver prices

A combination of higher inflation, a weakening US dollar (in first half of year) and improving manufacturing growth is likely to see silver prices trade higher to US$21/oz in 2017. Yesterday’s release of the Global Manufacturing PMI at 52.7 (above the long-term average of 51.4 and sitting at a 34-month high) indicates manufacturing activity will continue to pick up this year. Strong PMIs support silver prices.

In line with our revised gold price forecast (see Gold outlook 2017: further upside likely), we have updated our silver outlook. We adopt the simple model described in Gold and silver: similar, but different. We assume that the gold price will reach US$1300/oz by mid-year and then falls to US$1230/oz by year end.

We expect COMEX silver inventory to fall after reaching decade high in December 2016. By the end of 2017 we expect inventory to be back to the levels we saw at the beginning of 2016 (17% decline).

We believe global PMI manufacturing will continue to improve, although pace of growth will slow as we approach a 6-year high of 55 at the year-end.

Mining capital expenditure has continued to slide. We factor an 18-month lag to this input into our model reflecting the time it takes forgone investment to bite into supply. Silver has been in a supply deficit for the past 11 years and further decline in mining investment is likely to see that deficit continue.

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities

Nitesh is a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).