Greece Teetering on the Brink of Default

Greece Teetering on the Brink of DefaultGreece Teetering on the Brink of Default

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Greece Teetering on the Brink of Default

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Highlights

•    Weather driving sharp movements in agricultural commodities.
•    Equity markets to price in default?
•    Haven demand and economic recovery fuelling US dollar higher.

A sharp re-pricing of risk is likely to follow Greece’s decision to hold the question of accepting its creditor terms to a referendum. Capital controls have been implemented to stem outflows from Greece’s banks while the ECB has frozen the Emergency Liquidity Assistance to Friday’s levels. Greece still owes the IMF €1.6bn tomorrow. Failure to pay could descend the country into chaos, marking the first sovereign default in the euro area since its creation. We believe that demand for defensive assets such as gold and the US dollar are likely to be key beneficiaries of the unfolding crisis.

Commodities

Weather driving sharp movements in agricultural commodities. Rain in the US delayed the harvesting of wheat and potential the sowing of soy, acting as a catalyst for price gains of 9.0% and 2.3% respectively. Meanwhile strong winds in Iowa and Illinois knocked over young corn stalks driving the price of corn up 5.2%. An acreage report from the USDA out tomorrow is likely to revise the estimates for planting of soy from what was expected to be a record high when the prospective planting survey was conducted in March. An intensifying El Niño weather pattern will likely see further disruption to crops this year. We believe that drier conditions in Australia, India and West Africa will drive wheat, sugar and cocoa prices higher. Better soy growing conditions in the US and South America that will result from an intensified El Niño will mitigate any lower planting intentions for soy, acting as a negative weight on price.

Equities

Equity markets to price in default? The continuing Greek debt saga led to choppy trading in Europe last week, with most bourses ending the week higher on optimism that some sort of deal would have been brokered over the weekend to avoid Greek defaulting on its IMF loan tomorrow. The referendum and capital controls now throw doubt as to whether a solution can be quickly found. European equity markets are faltering as a repricing of risk takes place. Meanwhile, the MSCI China A-Shares index has declined by closed to 20% in the past two weeks. While the Chinese domestic equity market has rallied more than 100% in the past year (even after the correction), the authorities are keen to the see that sentiment does not unravel. Over the weekend the People’s Bank of China cut interest rates by 25bps and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for small banks by 50bps.

Currencies

Haven demand and economic recovery fuelling US dollar higher. Greek financial woes drove the US dollar 2% higher against the Euro. The ongoing saga is likely to continue to favor the US dollar, as near-term solutions are likely to be met with more arduous negotiations. With the threat of an accident always around the corner, it is clear why haven currencies are sought after. While the Swiss franc has traditionally been treated as a haven currency, the Swiss National Bank has tried to lean against the wind with verbal intervention. After the SNB’s head declared its currency significantly overvalued, the currency declined 2.2% in the week against the US dollar. US non-farm payrolls due on Thursday and manufacturing ISM on Wednesday are two indicators that will be market will be looking at closely to assess whether the Fed is still on track to raise rates in September. Once the US starts to raise rates, we believe that increases will be gradual and highly data dependent. That could slow the pace of the current US dollar rally.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

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Gold loses its shine

Gold loses its shine

ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly Gold loses its shine

Long gold ETPs witness the largest weekly outflows since inception.

ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL) receives largest weekly inflow since 2012.

Dollar strength weighs on platinum price.

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Following the recent robust US non-farm payroll reading, the market will be paying close attention to the FOMC’s press statement on Wednesday for any affirmation that the committee intends to raise rates in June. Any such indication will likely send the Euro closer to parity with the Dollar and be bearish for gold. In Europe, monetary policy will remain in the fore as the BOE releases minutes of its latest meeting and the SNB meets to discuss policy. In the UK, George Osborne will reveal his latest budget, which will be an opportunity for the government to impress voters in the run up to the general election in May.

Long gold ETPs witness the largest weekly outflows since inception. US$376.5mn of funds exited ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU) last week amidst a broad market selloff for gold. The robust US payroll reading on the 6th March stoked speculation that the Federal Reserve intends to increase interest rates in its June meeting as the economy continues to display signs of strength. The prospect of higher US rates does not bode well for the precious metal which is itself a zero yielding asset. Since reaching a five month high of over US$1,300/oz in January, the gold price has fallen 11.2% as a series of positive events, including the announcement of a Greek debt deal, has boosted investor confidence. Going forward, bullion will likely find some support from investors outside of the US as central banks globally continue to cut interest rates and expand their respective balance sheets in an effort to combat deflation.

ETFS Daily Leveraged WTI Crude Oil (LOIL) receives largest weekly inflow since 2012.
The 11.7% drop in the price of WTI this week has sparked a resurgence of investor interest in US crude as flows into long WTI ETPs hit a 7 week high. Last week’s price decline was prompted by the release of a somewhat bearish report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and news that US crude stockpiles are at a record high. The report explained that US crude inventories look set to grow into the second half of 2015, at which point the recent cuts to investment expenditure will take effect and curtail production growth. Long WTI ETPs have experienced the longest streak of inflows to date as bargain hunting investors seek to benefit from the considerable upside to the price from current depressed levels.

Dollar strength weighs on platinum price. The price of platinum fell to US$1,118/oz last week, the lowest level since 2009, prompting the first weekly outflow from long platinum ETPs in six weeks. The price drop was driven by the US Dollar appreciating to multi year highs against major currencies and reduced safe haven demand. At current levels, platinum will likely witness price sensitive demand from China pick-up, which in conjunction with tight supply fundamentals, should aid a price recovery later in the year.

Key events to watch this week. Central banking activity will once again dominate the agenda next week: the upcoming FOMC meeting will clarify if the Fed continues to emphasise patience, which could derail the USD rally, followed by the release of BOE meeting minutes and the SNB interest rate decision. In addition, inflation data from the Eurozone will be monitored for any signs of undesirable deflation.

Video Presentation

Joshpreet Tiwana, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

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Europe Preparing for Quantitative Easing

Europe Preparing for Quantitative Easing

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly Europe Preparing for Quantitative Easing

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Highlights

Persistent cold forecasts drive up natural gas prices

Hopes of quantitative easing boost European equities.

Shock and awe. The SNB’s surprise moves on Thursday sent the Swiss Franc close to parity with the Euro, a 17% movement in the pair on the day.

The Swiss National Bank shocked the market by removing its 1.20 cap on the Swiss Franc against the Euro. Central banks will remain in the limelight with the European Central Bank widely expected to announce full-blown quantitative easing this week after years of resisting following the US on this path. Discussion of the modalities of the programme will no doubt drive asset price rallies – the direction dependent on how inclusive or restrictive the programme will be. Meanwhile a raft of Chinese data releases including Q4 2014 GDP will be closely observed as the market looks for further cues on where global growth will go in 2015.

Commodities

Persistent cold forecasts drive up natural gas prices. Natural gas prices surged 6.7% on predictions that cold weather conditions in the US would continue into the upcoming week. This raised market expectations of increased heating demand from the Northeast and Midwest regions of the US. Conversely, copper ended the week down -7.7% amidst selling on Asian markets spurred by the World Bank reducing its forecasts for global growth this year to 3.0% from 3.4% previously. Copper is broadly considered a barometer for global economic health due to its broad industrial applications. Finally, crude benchmarks continued to fall this week with Brent and WTI ending the week down -7.3% and -5.0% respectively as US crude inventory figures showed that oil stores are at their highest levels in 80 years . The asymmetric decline in prices caused WTI to temporarily trade at a premium to Brent, reflecting early signs that current falling prices are causing US producers to curb production.

Equities

Hopes of quantitative easing boost European equities. A ruling by the European Court of Justice increased the likelihood that a QE program will be revealed at the next central bank meeting on the 22nd January. Markets cheered the move sending European stocks higher with the German DAX rallying 1.9% in the week. The QE program is aimed at preventing the Eurozone slipping into deflation as energy prices continue to fall. Bullion ended the week up 3.6% as market volatility stimulated safe haven demand following a shock announcement by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) stating that it was abandoning its currency cap of 1.2 CHF against the Euro. The rise in the gold price buoyed the DAXglobal Gold Mining Index which finished the week up 8.3%. Both the FTSE 100 and the Solactive US Energy Infrastructure MLP Index were dragged lower by falling copper and oil prices.

Currencies

Shock and awe. The SNB’s surprise moves on Thursday sent the Swiss Franc close to parity with the Euro, a 17% movement in the pair on the day. The Swiss central bank is no doubt preparing for the European Central Bank’s (ECB’s) full-blown quantitative easing (QE) programme which is widely expected to be announced this week at ECB’s policy meeting. In contrast to the US Federal Reserve, which had trodden on this path before, the ECB will need to buy sovereign debts from many Member States. There are many questions that will need to be answered in this policy meeting: How big will the programme will be?; Which country’s bonds will it buy?; Will the ECB buy the bonds itself or delegate the task to the Member States’ national central banks? After the SNB’s moves last week, the Euro had appeared to price in a fairly aggressive move by the ECB and any disappointment in the scale of the programme could drive the Euro higher over the short term.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

General

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FSA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

Other than as set out above, investors may contact ETFS UK at +44 (0)20 7448 4330 or at retail@etfsecurities.com to obtain copies of prospectuses and related regulatory documentation, including annual reports. Other than as separately indicated, this communication is being made on a ”private placement” basis and is intended solely for the professional / institutional recipient to which it is delivered.

Third Parties

Securities issued by each of the Issuers are direct, limited recourse obligations of the relevant Issuer alone and are not obligations of or guaranteed by any of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A., Deutsche Bank AG any of their affiliates or anyone else or any of their affiliates. Each of UBS AG, Merrill Lynch Commodities Inc. (”MLCI”), Bank of America Corporation (”BAC) or any of their affiliates. UBS AG, MLCI and BAC, Shell Trading Switzerland, Shell Treasury, HSBC Bank USA N.A., JP Morgan Chase Bank, N.A. and Deutsche Bank AG disclaims all and any liability whether arising in tort, contract or otherwise (save as referred to above) which it might have in respect of this document or its contents otherwise arising in connection herewith.

”Dow Jones,” ”UBS”, DJ-UBS CISM,”, ”DJ-UBS CI-F3SM,” and any related indices or sub-indices are service marks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC (”Dow Jones”), CME Group Index Services LLC (”CME Indexes”), UBS AG (”UBS”) or UBS Securities LLC (”UBS Securities”), as the case may be, and have been licensed for use by the Issuer. The securities issued by CSL although based on components of the Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index 3 month ForwardSM are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, and none of Dow Jones, CME Indexes, UBS, UBS Securities, or any of their respective subsidiaries or affiliates, makes any representation regarding the advisability of investing in such product.

Research Update – Swiss Gold Referendum

Research Update – Swiss Gold Referendum

Background Research Update – Swiss Gold Referendum

The right-wing Swiss People’s Party introduced a referendum entitled ‘Save our Swiss Gold’. On 30 November Swiss voters will decide whether or not to force the Swiss National bank (SNB) to hold 20% of foreign reserves as gold, stop the SNB selling gold, and to repatriate all Swiss gold held in foreign central bank vaults.

In order to fight the threat of deflation and support the economy, the SNB’s key policy is capping the gains of the Swiss Franc against the Euro at 1.20. A strong Franc hurts the competitiveness of the Swiss economy, so the SNB is trying to limit the gains of the Franc against the Euro, as the Eurozone is its main trading partner. The SNB’s currency policy has seen the central bank amass sizeable foreign currency reserves as it buys Euros to defend the 1.20 cap, which forms part of the SNB’s asset base.

The SNB’s gold reserves currently total around US$43bn, less than 10% of the SNB’s total assets. If the referendum is successful, the SNB would need to buy at least another 1500-2000 tonnes, equivalent to around 40% of total annual global gold supply (or around 60% of global mine production). Such demand would likely spur a significant and sharp gold price rise.

Historically the Franc has been viewed as a safe haven currency because it had a strong gold backing. As the central bank acquires more and more gold, it is probable that currency market views this as a positive for the currency and makes it harder for the central bank to achieve its aim for the currency. The SNB would also not be able to sell any gold under the proposal, which could also lead to gold being the majority of its asset base. Even if the central bank’s balance sheet contracts in future, it would be unable to sell gold previously bought, thereby exacerbating the problem.

Both the government and the SNB are against the gold referendum, viewing it as limiting their ability manage the economy. The SNB has indicated that being mandated to have to buy gold could mean that the market doubts the SNB’s resolve to buy large sums of Euros and gold if the referendum is passed. Clearly, the SNB’s credibility is at risk because the central bank will find it difficult to keep the Franc’s gains capped if it has to buy gold as well as Euros to defend the cap.

Regardless of how far-fetched investors believe the chance of a successful outcome for the referendum, Swiss voters have already shown nationalistic tendencies this year. In February, voters in Switzerland approved (by a narrow 50.3%) curbing immigration, ending the freedom of movement accord that had existed with the EU since 2002. Notably, the immigration referendum was also brought about by the same right-wing party, the SVP.

Implications

We expect the Swiss Franc to rally and test the SNB commitment to keeping its currency policy floor against the Euro if the gold referendum is passed. A ‘yes’ vote would mean that the CHF would have a stronger gold backing, raising its appeal for investors looking for hard asset exposure in an uncertain European economic climate. The more the CHF rises and the more Euros the SNB buys, the more gold it will need to accumulate, thereby exacerbating the problem.

We expect an initial gold rally if the referendum is passed, but the longer-term effects depend on the timing and source of gold that the SNB purchases. If the SNB buys gold on the open market, the price impact on gold is likely to be sustained as it represents additional demand. However, if it purchases gold off-market (from other central banks for example) it would not represent additional demand and the price effect would likely be transitory. The SNB has five years to achieve the gold target level of 20% of assets, but if it is seen to act in a timely fashion to build gold holdings, the effect on gold is likely to be more pronounced.

While recent polls have shown it is less likely the referendum is passed, a large proportion undecided voters will be key for the result. Nevertheless, the market appears not to have priced in the chance of ‘yes’ vote and we expect the risks for the Swiss Franc (and gold) are skewed to the upside.

Important Information

General

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified investors as such term is defined in Directive 2010/73/EU and professional investors as such term is defined in Directive 2004/39/EC.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective, officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.