Time to short sugar, coffee and soybeans

ETF Securities Commodity Research - Time to short sugar, coffee and soybeansTime to short sugar, coffee and soybeans

ETF Securities Commodity Research – Time to short sugar, coffee and soybeans

Summery

  • Sugar, coffee and soybeans have made spectacular returns this year, but much of their gains have been driven by currency movements, particularly the Brazilian Real.
  • With record production of Arabica coffee and soybeans expected in 2016/17 and a narrowing deficit in sugar, the rally is likely to come under pressure.
  • If the Brazilian Real remains stable, we expect fundamentals to prevail and the price of these sugar, coffee and soybeans to decline.

Brazilian Real drives rally

The El Niño weather pattern led to a failed monsoon in India and unseasonably wet weather in South America in 2015/16. However at the time of onset of the adverse weather, the price of sugar, coffee and soy made only muted moves. The sharp depreciation of the Brazilian Real weighed on their performance as stocks of these commodities could be sold in US Dollars, providing millers and farmers with improved margins. When the Brazilian Real started to appreciate we saw the price of the commodities make substantial returns. Year-to-date, sugar, coffee and soybeans have returned 35%, 19% and 25% respectively.
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Weather patterns changing

The El Niño of 2015 was one of the most extreme on record by some measures, but the impacts of the weather phenomenon should be largely behind us now. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts that the opposite weather phenomenon, La Niña, will emerge by the Northern Hemisphere autumn with a probability of 75%. La Niña involves a cooling of the Pacific Ocean (in a similar manner to El Niño warming the ocean), which changes trade winds and weather patterns from what is considered to be normal. Broadly speaking, areas that were excessively warm and dry in El Niño are likely to turn cool and wet in a La Niña. We assessed the likely impacts of La Niña emerging in autumn/winter (see Opportunity to short agriculture with La Niña) which highlights that the weather phenomenon is likely to be price negative for many crops with the exception of sugar. Cooler Southern Hemisphere temperatures are likely to reduce the heat damage that we have seen in the past crop. Sugar maybe an exception as cooler, wetter weather could reduce the sucrose content of cane in Brazil.
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Record coffee production

After two consecutive years of production decline, coffee output is expected to rebound to an all-time high. Brazil, which produces approximately 45% of global Arabica supplies has seen favourable rain during the flowering of its coffee bushes, setting the scene for a healthy crop. Although the beginning of the harvest has been slowed by rain, current dry and warm weather should allow for field work to catch up. Brazilian output is expected to rise by close to 20% in the current 2016/17 crop. Elsewhere, production in Honduras (7% of global production) is expected to make a recovery after the planting of ‘rust- resistant’ trees several years ago, which is helping to improve yields. The country has engaged in a renovation programme to protect its coffee from the rust-leaf fungus which has reduced production from Central America and Mexico for the past four years. Honduran production is likely to hit an all-time high of 6.1 mn bags (a 7% gain).
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Narrowing sugar deficit

After 5 consecutive years of sugar surplus, 2015/16 was the first year of a deficit. The failed monsoon in India and Thailand has seen production in these two countries decline the most (the combined output of both countries is about 25% of global production). Production in Brazil (20% of global production) also declined, not because of a decline in cane growth, but because more cane was used for ethanol production. The 2016/17 cane harvest in Brazil, which is about a quarter complete, is progressing 15% faster than last year’s harvest. With relatively low gasoline prices we don’t expect a large diversion to ethanol this year. Sugar production in Brazil is running 25% ahead of where it was last year and we expect a 7% increase in Brazilian sugar output in 2016/17.
(click to enlarge) The Indian monsoon is currently approaching its northern limits and rainfall has been at the long-term average. In contrast to last year, resevoirs will likely be amply replenished. Indian sugar output is likely to rise as a result of more favourable conditions for its cane crop. Sugar consumption is expected to rise by 1% globally, leaving the market in a production deficit despite the increase in supply. However, that supply deficit will narrow. While sugar stocks will continue to decline, they will remain above the long-term average of 31 million tonnes.

Soybeans head for record production

The Argentine soybean harvest in 2015/16, which is virtually complete, is expected to produce 8% less soybeans that the previous year as flooding in April and May spoiled the crop. Argentina provides approximately 20% of global production. Brazil (30% of global production) has seen its harvest remain close to the previous year’s levels. The 2016/17 year crop for Argentina and Brazil has not yet been planted. The US 2015/16 crop was a record high. Although USDA projects a decline for 2016/17, we believe that their forecast remains overly conservative. By July 3rd 2016, 22% of the crop was blooming (8% ahead of last year) and 72% of crop was in good or excellent condition (10% better of last year). Moreover, planted acreage of soybean in the US has increased by 1%.
(click to enlarge) Speculative positioning in soybean futures stand more than 1.5 standard deviations above the 5-year average, highlighting that investor optimism remains elevated. We believe that the investor optimism is a response to the disappointing Argentine crop of 2015/16. While the 2016/17 Southern Hemisphere crop is not yet in the ground, our analysis of La Niñas indicate that weather conditions could be quite favourable for the crop this year.

Downside risk to Real

While difficult to predict the path of a currency that has been so volatile in the past few years, we believe that the good news about relative political stability (after the impeachment of the President Dilma Rousseff) has been largely priced in. Economic conditions remain challenging for the country and therefore limit significant further appreciation. We believe that currency appreciation will no longer be a meaningful catalyst for price increases in sugar, soybean and coffee for the remainder of this year and the crops will trade on their own fundamentals. Rising production should therefore be price-negative.

Important Information

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Strong US output to cap Soybean gains

Strong US output to cap Soybean gains

Trade Idea Commodities – Strong US output to cap Soybean gains

Adverse weather hampers the South American harvest

Trade Idea Commodities – Strong US output to cap Soybean gains. On the 10th May, the release of the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) monthly demand and supply estimates triggered a sharp rally in the price of soybeans, ending a downward trend that has lasted just over two years (see Figure 1). The move came as the report detailed the adverse impact of recent weather conditions on the ongoing soybean harvest in Brazil and Argentina, countries which together are responsible for approximately 54% of global soybean exports. The report also included the first projections for the next crop year (2016/17), with global soybean stocks estimated to fall to a three year low. While clearly the recent rally was somewhat grounded in tighter market fundamentals, we believe it to be overdone and have potential to correct lower in coming months. News of good progress with US plantings and strong production estimates should catalyse this move.

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Longs build to the highest on record

Indications of supply side tightening has caused soybean prices to rally 25%* this year, making the commodity the second strongest performer in the grain and seed complex. The price rise has been accompanied by a rapid accumulation of speculative long positions, which have now reached the highest level on record. The pace and extent to which these positions have amassed would suggest that the recent rally could be quickly undone should fundamentals wane.

Production remains robust

Currently, in the US the 2016/17 soybean crop is being planted. The latest USDA weather bulletin shows that as of 15th May, 36% of the process is complete (4% more than the five year average) and weather conditions are “favourable” for future progress. At this stage in the crop cycle it is difficult to estimate the future output from the US, which makes next year’s production estimates subject to significant variation. However, weather currently appears conducive to a strong yield and we believe that this will be reflected in USDA estimates in coming months. Furthermore, signs of an improving supply picture in the year ahead due to a favourable La Niña weather pattern, should override concerns of reduced stocks in the current year, placing soybean prices under pressure from current multi year highs.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

•         ETFS Soybeans (SOYB)
•         ETFS 2x Daily Long Soybeans (LSOB)
•         ETFS 1x Daily Short Soybeans (SSOB)
•         ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Soybeans (ESOY)
•         Swiss Franc Daily Hedged Soybeans (CSOY)

The complete ETF Securities product list can be found here.
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Deal or no deal…stability will be restored

Deal or no deal…stability will be restored

ETFS Multi-Asset Weekly – Deal or no deal…stability will be restored

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Highlights

Grains post strong gains.

Is correction territory a buying opportunity for China?

Swedish and Swiss central banks go on the currency war offensive.

Defensive assets are likely to benefit from the uncertainty in Greece. The ‘No’ vote in the referendum yesterday received more than 60% of votes. Failure to make progress in debt negotiations elevates the risk of a default on the €3.5bn that is owed to the ECB on 20th July. Another default would almost certainly lead to the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) being switched off and throw Greek banking system into an untenable position. While there is near term risk of greater volatility and downside equity risk, evidence of continued growth in the Eurozone and the US should help restore stability once the initial ‘event’  risk

Commodities

Grains post strong gains. Deteriorating growing conditions and lower acreage sown for corn and wheat saw the grains sector significantly outperform the broader commodities market. While Soybeans rode the grains momentum higher despite a record crop being planted in the US. Sugar also posted solid gains as the Indian monsoon season has begun to deteriorate. Compared to historical averages, rainfall was 14% lower than normal in June, potentially threatening the crop from the world’s second largest producer. An intensification of the El Niño could further exacerbate the disruption of crops, providing further price support. Soy is the likely exception, with an El Niño assisting growing conditions in South America. Meanwhile, the first increase in the US oil rig count has prompted crude price weakness, something that could gather momentum in the weeks ahead, if, as we expect oil production remains elevated and moves higher as rigs come back online.

Equities

Is correction territory a buying opportunity for China? Further stimulus by the People’s Bank of China last week was followed up by an easing in its crackdown on margin lending for equity market investments. The sharp slide in A-shares that the changes to margin lending rules has brought about has authorities concerned and policymakers are justifiably wary over excessive volatility and the potential threat to social stability. Policymakers are attempting to smooth the transition to market transparency and financial liberalisation and will likely continue to be supportive with fresh policy measures. The continuing Greek debt crisis prompted sharp losses across most European bourses last week and in early trading this week, as the Greek government defaulted on an IMF repayment and Greek Prime Minister continued to urge citizens to vote ‘No’ at last weekend’s referendum. Citizens duly responded, with 60% of the vote. Expect more downside risk and volatility or equity markets.

Currencies

Swedish and Swiss central banks go on the currency war offensive. Currency wars continue to be waged in the background, as the Greek crisis takes the headlines. The lack of clarity surrounding the fate of Greece has given investors no respite from currency volatility. The Swedish Riksbank cut rates further into negative territory (4th cut in 2015) and coupled with additions to its QE program, is keen to keep any currency gains in check (because long end rates remain elevated). The reason long-end rates are high is because of the lack of liquidity – a problem that larger central banks pursuing QE (the Fed, the ECB and BOJ) have not had to contend with. As a consequence, another issue is that the currency has strengthened more than expected, and hampers any benefit for the local economy. We expect the Riksbank will more closely target its currency in the future, as long as its QE program remains ineffective.

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E  info@etfsecurities.com

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This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (”FCA”).

Investments may go up or down in value and you may lose some or all of the amount invested.  Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. You should consult an independent investment adviser prior to making any investment in order to determine its suitability to your circumstances.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

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Gold Back in Favour

Gold Back in Favour

Gold Back in Favour

Highlights

 

Physical gold ETPs inflows hit 9-month highs.

Long WTI oil ETPs see eighth consecutive week of inflows, totalling US$10.8mn.

Silver ETPs experience third consecutive week of inflows.

ETFS Copper (COPA) received highest inflows since August.

Profit-taking prompts withdrawals of US$6.6mn in ETFS Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA)

ETFS Soybeans (SOYB) sees largest outflow since April 2013 as El Niño probability increases.

 

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Gold inflows rose to their highest since February 2013 last week following a 2.4% gain in price. With gold having fallen close to its marginal cost of production (which we estimate at US$1100/oz), investors increasingly believe that mine production will be cut in 2015, helping to tighten supply. At the end of this week the Swiss population will vote on whether to require their central bank to hold 20% of its assets in gold. While opinion polls only show 38% of the population is in favour of the proposal, there is a risk there will be more support on the day. If the proposal does pass, we would expect a sharp rally in gold.

Physical gold ETPs inflows hit 9-month highs. Inflows into physical gold ETPs reached the highest level since early February, totalling US$131.8mn last week, on a combination of bargain hunting and potential for a ‘yes’ result at the Swiss gold referendum. We believe that the Swiss referendum could act as a catalyst for further interest in the metal as the risk of a sharp rally increases.

Long WTI oil ETPs see eighth consecutive week of inflows, totalling US$10.8mn. The OPEC meeting this week will be a pivotal moment in regaining control in a cartel that appears to have lost its way. Discount oil selling by Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq in Asia and the US cannot persist if the cartel is to maintain credibility and we don’t believe the institution that has survived since 1960 will choose to become irrelevant right now. We believe Saudi Arabia will have to cut production in order to soothe the increasing restlessness of the other OPEC members. We remain believe both WTI and Brent benchmarks will increase as supply tightens in 2015.

Silver ETPs experience third consecutive week of inflows. Although silver rallied alongside gold last week, the gold to silver ration still remains at its highest since 2009, indicating that silver remains considerably cheap relative to gold. Continued global growth in 2015 should bode well for industrial silver demand, with Chinese photovoltaic consumption expected to be an area of strong growth in coming years.

ETFS Copper (COPA) received highest inflows since August. Although the copper price has fallen 8.7% year to date, optimism for the metal is growing. Supply surplus forecasts are slowing transforming to supply deficits and demand for industrial metals in general is likely to gain traction as China’s stimulus policy starts to have its desired effect.

Profit-taking prompts withdrawals of US$6.6mn in ETFS Leveraged Natural Gas (LNGA). The Henry Hub natural gas price surged 12.9% last week as colder weather hit the east coast of the US. The cold snap is likely to eat into storage levels earlier in the season than initially expected. Nevertheless, the US meteorologists believe that the winter will be relatively mild allowing for a rebuild in inventory levels after the cold snap.

ETFS Soybeans (SOYB) sees largest outflow since April 2013 as El Niño probability increases. Last week, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology increased the odds of an El Niño event this winter to 70% from 50% previously. An El Niño typically improves soy growing conditions in Brazil and Argentina and will be price negative should it materialise. Investors withdrew US$7.9mn flow from SOYB.

Key events to watch this week. Preliminary Q3 GDP data scheduled to be release for the US, the UK and Canada next week, likely highlighting the buoyancy of these three countries compared to other major economies like the Eurozone and Japan. CPI data for the latter countries will give clarity on the need for further stimulus in 2015 from the ECB and BOJ

Video Presentation

 

Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.

For more information contact

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

 

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