French primaries, another hit to the polls

French primaries, another hit to the polls

For the first time in the history of the right wing party, the French are able to have their say and vote for the Republican candidate for the presidential election in May 2017. These open primary elections happen at a time when populism is rising across the developed world. After the UK and the US, the focus is now on Europe. French political parties acknowledged the threat from the far-right chaired by Marine Le Pen. The winner of the primaries will most likely face Le Pen next year and potentially become the next president of the French Republic. French primaries, another hit to the polls

Last Sunday, more than 4 million voters gathered at polling stations in France, or on their computers for French living abroad, to choose the one who will highly likely face Marine Le Pen at the French presidential election in May 2017. Following the EU referendum and US election, the centre-right party (renamed the Republicans) is taking the rise of populism very seriously with these primaries a strategic move to guarantee the soon elected candidate its legitimacy in the race.

The results of the first round held yesterday were another hit to pollsters. While polls have consistently pointed Juppé as best placed for being the next French president with Sarkozy as his main opponent, Fillon made a surprising comeback and won the first round with 44% of the vote. Juppé only managed to get 28% and Sarkozy bowed out. The second round scheduled this Sunday is now between Fillon and Juppé with a debate scheduled for this Thursday. The possibility for Juppé becoming president is however much slimmer.

Juppé is a conservative. Fillon is more liberal. Both however take a similar approach on security and immigration issues. The successful candidate needs to be charismatic and well-prepared to promote their perspective on these key issues ahead of next year’s presidential debate in order to prevent a Frexit. Beyond the battle of rising populism, voters this Sunday should keep in mind that now more than ever, France needs a strong president and government that will be able to bring the country back to its feet socially and economically. People who will vote this Sunday will in this way be voting for their next president.

(Click to enlarge)
Edith Southammakosane, Multi-Asset Strategist at ETF Securities

Edith is a director, multi-asset strategist at ETF Securities, specialised in investment strategies across commodity, equity, currency and fixed-income. Edith has 9 years of experience in the ETP industry, with exposure to different aspects of the business, from product management to research and investment strategy. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Edith started her career working for Lyxor Asset Management in Paris as Marketing assistant. Edith holds a Master in Management with a major in Risk and Asset Management from the EDHEC business school (France).

Brexit First impressions

Brexit First impressions

ETF Securities FX Weekly – Brexit First impressions

Weekly currency investment views from ETF Securities

Summary

  • The economic aftermath from the UK’s decision to leave the EU will take months to come clear.
  • The impact will also be felt politically as protectionist right wing parties on the continent gather momentum.
  • Italy’s constitutional referendum in October could trigger a period of political instability, which could weigh on the EUR.

Download investment view (.pdf)

For more information contact:

ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (”ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the ”FCA”).

This communication is only targeted at qualified or professional investors.

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction.  No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

The view from the back of the queue – GBP in focus

The view from the back of the queue – GBP in focus

The view from the back of the queue. GBP in focus. The British Pound is plumbing 30-year lows against the US Dollar, after the shock of the EU Referendum result. GBP/USD has plunged around 11% since the EU Referendum vote, highlighting the mistaken expectations of financial markets. Uncertainty means elevated market volatility in coming weeks, with investors likely to remain defensive in their portfolio allocations in FX markets.Unsurprisingly, GBP is exhibiting the highest implied volatility in the G10. Options markets are indicating that Sterling is expected to weaken against all currencies in coming weeks.

The decision to leave the EU not only puts in question the UK’s relationship with the EU, but with trading partners globally. Only last month US President Obama indicated the UK would move ‘to the back of the queue’ in terms of trade negotiations. The final structure of an EU agreement will be determined by the upcoming withdrawal negotiations. Any protectionist tendencies from the EU are likely to have a relatively immediate adverse impact on costs and growth of the UK economy. Economic and political uncertainty will have a permanent negative impact on the domestic UK economy, as businesses postpone investment and employment activities. Softer economic numbers could begin to flow through in late 2016 and 2017.

Political uncertainty surrounding the Conservative party leadership is also keeping investors on edge. The new leadership for the Conservative party is expected to begin the EU withdrawal process for the UK. Market confidence is only likely to return with greater clarity over the timing and structure of the UK’s future relationship with the EU.

We expect a flattening of the Gilt curve, as concern over the implications of the EU referendum for UK growth weigh on inflationary expectations. Lower long-end yields are likely to keep GBP under pressure and we expect the US Dollar and Yen to remain well bid in the near term, as volatility remains elevated. In the medium term, falling inflationary expectations is likely to put pressure on the Bank of England to take further stimulatory action, another negative for GBP.

Martin Arnold, Global FX & Commodity Strategist at ETF Securities

Martin Arnold joined ETF Securities as a research analyst in 2009 and was promoted to Global FX & Commodity Strategist in 2014. Martin has a wealth of experience in strategy and economics with his most recent role formulating an FX strategy at an independent research consultancy. Martin has a strong background in macroeconomics and financial analysis – gained both at the Reserve Bank of Australia and in the private commercial banking sector – and experience covering a range of asset classes including equities and bonds. Martin holds a Bachelor of Economics from the University of New South Wales (Australia), a Master of Commerce from the University of Wollongong (Australia) and attained a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance and Investment from the Securities Institute of Australia.

Brexit, The Aftermath

Market Insight – Foreign Exchange –Brexit, The Aftermath

Markets blindsided

Brexit, The Aftermath After a week of tracking increasingly optimistic voting polls, financial markets have been caught off guard by the surprise decision of the British public to leave the European Union. At the time of writing, the primary victims of the decision to leave have been European equity indices and the Sterling, both of which have experienced sharp falls in the 6-12% range. Conversely, traditional safe haven assets like gold have climbed as investors seek a store of value amongst falling risky asset prices (see Figure 1). The actual economic impact of the vote will not be known until a new relationship is agreed between the UK and the EU, a negotiation process that could span years and has an array of potential outcomes. Therefore, we believe uncertainty is likely to remain an integral feature of financial markets for some time to come, making sentiment a key driver of returns going forward. The main factors that we believe will drive confidence in the near term are the selection of a competent successor to David Cameron and the degree of anti-establishment support on the continent.

Figure 1: Brexit rocks financial markets

Source: Bloomberg, ETF Securities, Intraday performance as of 24th June 2016

Confidence is king

Confidence in the ability of the UK to secure a beneficial trade deal with the EU will be vital in stabilising financial markets. After David Cameron announced his decision to stand down as Prime Minister this morning, focus turned to who his replacement would be and how quickly he/she would be installed. In our view, what is important to markets is the capacity for Cameron’s successor to unite the Conservative party and instil political stability. The more cohesive the leading party is, the more likely we’ll see a positive reaction from the Sterling and UK equity markets.

Anti-establishment contagion

A prominent risk for the EU is that the UK’s decision to leave fuels support for anti-establishment parties at a time where four of the largest countries in the monetary union face key elections in the next 15 months. Parties in France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands have already gained momentum and this outcome could garner further backing. If calls for referendums in these states grow the stability of the EU will be threatened, which will likely be unfavourable for European assets.

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

Impact of the EU Referendum

Impact of the EU Referendum

Market Insight – Foreign Exchange – Impact of the EU Referendum

Brexit possibility rekindled

After the “Remain” camp took a seemingly unassailable lead in voting polls towards the end of May, a bout of Sterling strength reflected market relief as a degree of uncertainty was removed from the upcoming vote. However, this reprieve turned out to be short lived, as six out of eight of the latest polls have shown the “Leave” camp ahead with an average lead of three percentage points (Source: FT Brexit poll tracker), rekindling investor concerns and stressing the considerable stakes at risk on June 23rd. Interestingly, average gambling odds (sample of 24 bookmakers analysed) have put the likelihood of a “Brexit” at around 30%, but this is unlikely to provide much comfort to market participants with assets to protect (see Figure 1). With a US interest rate hike looking increasingly unlikely this month, the EU referendum is the biggest event in the calendar and preparing portfolios adequately will be top of the agenda for investors. Below, we look at the primary assets that are likely to be impacted by the either outcome of the vote.

Sterling – Direct exposure

In the event of a “Brexit” the most immediate impact is likely to play out on currency markets, with the Sterling likely to see significant moves in either direction. Recently, the Sterling has been the clearest barometer of the market’s concerns over a “Brexit” scenario, having already fallen 9.1% since mid-November (on a trade weighted basis). The largest consideration over the decision to leave is the uncertain impact that it will have on the UK’s trading relationship with the EU, the largest consumer of its exports (EU accounts for 47% of UK exports, Source: ONS). Various scenarios outlined in academic studies by PWC, Oxford Economics and the Centre for Economic Progress (CEP) all predict UK trade to be adversely impacted by a decision to leave the EU, explaining why the Sterling is likely to be the primary victim should a “Brexit” materialise. As a vote to leave would be the first decision of its kind, market forecasts over the extent of a Sterling fall are disparate, ranging from 12% by the Treasury to over 20% by some sell-side analysts, such as Credit Suisse.

A “Remain” outcome would see postponed investment projects recommence and consumer/business confidence surge, offering potential support for the Sterling from current depressed levels. The UK’s strong reliance on its financial sector and large current account deficit makes the Sterling vulnerable to market volatility, but also means that the currency rallies when uncertain events pass or bouts of market instability abate (see Figure 2, EU referendum unveils Sterling opportunity).

UK equities – Financials and Real Estate vulnerable

For UK equities the outcome of the vote is likely to affect performance along multiple avenues. For the large firms that comprise the FTSE 100 index, a much smaller portion of revenues are generated in the UK compared to the broader FTSE 250 index. A “Brexit” scenario could provide a competitive boost for larger, more internationally focused firms through a weaker Sterling, but may hurt smaller enterprises that generate revenues domestically. In addition, for equity sectors that are vulnerable to the vote’s impact on the regulation of foreign activities and consumer confidence, like those in Financials and Real Estate, the outcome could spur significant moves.

Gold – Traditional hedge

Gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven investment, offering protection during periods of elevated uncertainty and market turbulence (see Figure 3). A vote to “Leave” is the result associated with the most uncertainty, and therefore is likely to see the market’s appetite for safe haven assets increase, which could be a supportive factor for the yellow metal. However, the gold price is less likely to experience a sharp reaction should the status quo in the UK be maintained, with investors instead turning their attention back to the US for any indications from the US Federal Reserve of further monetary tightening.

*All figures quoted are sourced from Bloomberg unless stated otherwise.

Important Information

This communication has been issued and approved for the purpose of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”).

The information contained in this communication is for your general information only and is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. Historical performance is not an indication of future performance and any investments may go down in value.

This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States.

This communication may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. Although ETFS UK endeavours to ensure the accuracy of the content in this communication, ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee its accuracy or correctness. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. Where ETFS UK has expressed its own opinions related to product or market activity, these views may change. Neither ETFS UK, nor any affiliate, nor any of their respective officers, directors, partners, or employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents.

ETFS UK is required by the FCA to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recommendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.