Time to glean profits from grains, by Aneeka Gupta, Associate Director of Research
The 2018 price gains staged by wheat, cornand soybeansof 18%, 14% and 6% respectively (as of 18 May 2018), display a turnaround in the grains market that has, in the recent past, been plagued by weak prices due to rising inventories. In its first outlook for the 2018/19 (September/August) cycle, released on 10 May 2018, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) was optimistic in its outlook for the grains market and this positive tone has recently been resonated in the futures market, with speculative positioning rising to its highest level since August 2017, according to commodity and futures trading commission data. Here’s a closer look at key agricultural commodity projections and the implications for investors.
Figure 1: Net positioning across grains turns positive
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index.
Corn deficit
In the case of corn, USDA estimated a further deficit of 35.8 million tons on the global market in 2018/19. If realised, this would be the lowest level of corn ending stocks since the 2012/13 season, as demand is expected to outpace the expected production increase. With oil prices surging higher, more corn is being used for fuel production than traditional feed purposes in 2018, due to the price incentives offered by cheaper corn-based ethanol.
Lower projected yields and harvested acreage are expected to be a drag on the US crop, resulting in an estimated decline of nearly 600 million bushels from the previous harvest. However, combined corn exports from Ukraine and Russia in 2018/19 worth 265 million bushels are likely to increase competition for the US. The reduction in corn cultivation in China, after it already cut back its stocks in 2016/17 and 2017/18, is likely to contribute to a more pronounced decrease in global corn stocks.
Based on USDA’s projections, the decline in world corn ending stocks puts the world stocks-to-usage ratio at 14.5%, compared to 21.8% last year. This would mark the second-tightest world stocks-to-usage ratio for corn since the 1973/74 season, rendering the new corn crop vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. Corn prices are trading at historically low levels relative to the stocks-to-usage ratio and given that corn prices are known to exhibit the most pronounced negative correlation (0.55) to the stocks-to-usage ratio among all grains, we expect to see a significant catch up in corn prices, similar to that witnessed in 2010. However, as corn enters the prime growing season of June to September, it remains exposed to significant price pressure.
The latest USDA crop progress report showed this spring’s corn planting pace improving to 62%, close to the five-year average of 63%. Corn emergence also advanced to 28% as of mid-May, in line with the five-year average of 27%.
Figure 2: Corn prices lag tightening stocks-to-usage ratio
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETFSecurities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index.
Soybean plantings to exceed corn plantings
Low agricultural commodity prices are resulting in a paradigm shift in the US towards increased production of soybeans in lieu of resource-intensive corn and wheat. USDA expects soybean plantings to exceed corn plantings in 2018 by the greatest level ever. Despite USDA projecting global soybean production to rise on the back of a recovery from the drought in Argentina, higher soybean crush and exports are expected to offset most of the rise, with global soybean ending stock estimates declining by 5.5 million tons.
After the announcement of punitive tariffs on US soybean imports by China, China’s 2018/19 soybean imports are projected to decline for the first time in 15 years. At the same time, China’s soybean acreage is set to be expanded by around 9%, according to sources from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture. While this will contribute to production, China will only be producing approximately 12% of the amount of soybeans it consumes. Considering China’s rising soybean demand, we do not expect the current developments to interfere with the country’s import requirements and expect to see a resolution to the ongoing trade disputes.
Figure 3: Soybeans ending stocks
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETFSecurities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index.
Tough conditions for winter wheat
Wheat remained the weak link in USDA’s latest report. Since the start of 2018, a large part of wheat’s upward price momentum can be attributed to reports of tough conditions for winter wheat crop in Kansas, the most important US growing state, and other key regions. As it stands, 50% of Kansas winter wheat, 68% of Oklahoma winter wheat and 60% of Texas winter wheat is in poor or very poor condition. Planting progress shows winter wheat was 36% headed, falling behind the five-year average pace of 41%. However, USDA surprised investors by projecting a 5% increase in US wheat production due to a strong rise in spring wheat, despite poor winter wheat conditions.
Despite the 15% decline projected for Russian wheat crop, global wheat stocks are expected to be only 2% short of the 2017/18 all-time high. However, world ending stocks for 2018/19 are estimated to be lower at 955 million bushels, a positive development, which if realised would mark a four-year low.
How to gain exposure to agricultural commodities
Due to the strong performance of the grains market in 2018, the Continuous Commodity Futures Price Index (CCI Index), which has a high allocation to grains and agricultural commodities (47%), has risen 3.27% (as of 18 May 2018).
The distinctive feature of the CCI Index is its lower volatility, relative to other commodity indices, due to its lower weighting to the volatile energy sector. Additionally, index positions gravitate towards the near six months of the forward curve, thereby reducing volatility and mitigating negative roll yield. Unlike the major commodity indices, the CCI Index rebalances daily to keep weightings constant.
Figure 4: Cumulative contribution to spot return – year to date
Source: USDA, Bloomberg, ETF Securities. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You cannot invest directly in an Index.
Positive contributors to the spot return this year have been energy, grains and cocoa, as per the chart. For investors looking to gain exposure to grains and agricultural commodities, the CCI Index offers diversified exposure to commodities while maintaining a tilt to grain and agricultural commodities.
Related products
+ ETFS 1x Daily Short Grains
+ ETFS 2x Daily Long Grain
Aneeka Gupta, Equity & Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities
Aneeka Gupta is an Equity & Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Aneeka has 10 years of experience working as a Research Analyst across a wide range of asset classes. In her current role she is responsible for conducting analysis for all in-house commodity and macro publications and assisting the sales team with client queries around products and markets. Prior to ETF Securities, Aneeka worked as an Equity Sales Trader at Sunrise Brokers across US and Pan European Exchanges. Before that she worked as an Equity Derivatives Sales Manager at Mashreq Bank in Dubai.
Aneeka holds a Bsc in Mathematics from the University of Delhi and a Masters in Mathematics from Oxford University and is also a CFA Charterholder.
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The 6% rise in crude oil over the last week has led to investors taking profits with outflows of US$53m. This year there have been substantial inflows of US$350m into crude oil ETPs as investors trade the upper and lower end of the established US$40-55 trading range. Oil has been volatile, proving very sensitive to news on inventories in the US. The recent inventory drawdown was much greater than expected providing a catalyst to the recent price appreciation. Investors are using price volatility as an opportunity to buy on weakness and sell into strength. Although US stockpiles are now below last year’s levels, the rising trend in crude production highlights a continued rise in supply. We believe this puts a limit of US$55/bbl on oil prices, particularly as marginal costs of production in the US continue to fall and OPEC struggles with compliance of its production freeze.
Precious metals saw minor inflows of US$19m after a run of outflows. Recent dovish comments from the US Federal Reserve, failure of the Obamacare repeal and the corresponding weakness of the US dollar are the likely reasons for improved appetite for precious metals. Silver flows were flat for the week but have been popular over the last month with inflows of US$75m. We believe this is due to anticipated increase in industrial demand and attractive valuations relative to gold.
Wheat has been the worst performing crop over the last month, but remains by far the best performing year to date, up 7.5%. This recent weakness has prompted inflows of US$5.8m over the week and follows US$23m of outflows over the previous month. We continue to see potential downside correction in the near term. Net futures positions in wheat recently reached a 2-year high while fundamental projections for 2017/2018 in the WASDE July report are similar to 2015/2016 levels.
We continue to see inflows into thematic equity ETPs, with US$21m this week and nearly US$700m for the year so far. Investors remain focussed on the Robotics and Cyber Security ETPs which had inflows of US$13.2m and US$6.7m respectively.
Selling long positions and buying short positions in EUR has been a continuing trend with outflows of US$20m and inflows of US$26m respectively over the last month. This has been primarily against the USD. The ECB’s strategy to drip-feed the market with subtle hints on tapering is not quite working out, having pushed speculative long trades to overcrowded positions. This is in stark contrast to the USD where FED tightening actions are not strengthening the currency, while speculative long positions remain subdued.
For more information contact
ETF Securities Research team
ETF Securities (UK) Limited
T +44 (0) 207 448 4336
E info@etfsecurities.com
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Investors look for silver to play catch-up with other precious metals, with largest inflows in seven weeks. Silver has been the laggard in the precious metals sector in 2017, down nearly 3% for the year, with platinum the only other metal in the red over the period. The poor performance underscores how industrial demand has not, as yet, been in evidence. COMEX stockpiles of silver have reached the highest level since April 1995. Meanwhile, rising real yields are keeping downwards pressure on gold and with investors increasingly embracing a risk on mind-set, silver has underperformed, pushing the gold:silver ratio to 76 times (a higher ratio suggests silver is cheaper relative to gold) – the highest level in 15 months. After the largest inflows in seven weeks, totalling US$34.9mn, investors are anticipating the downward trend to reverse.
Oil outlook uncertain as investors withdraw funds from crude ETPs for the first time since late May. Despite a surprisingly large drawdown in US crude stockpiles, investors continue to question the ability for the oil market to become more balanced in 2017. After a brief rally following the 6.2mn barrel stock drawdown, oil prices once again succumbed to pessimistic sentiment. US oil stockpiles remain elevated (6% off the record levels seen in late March) and are undermining OPEC efforts to reduce supply in the face of sluggish demand. As a result, oil ETPs experienced outflows for the first time in six weeks, totalling US$18.8mn.
Copper ETPs lead the industrial metals sector with the largest inflows in 16 weeks, totalling US$19.9mn. Although copper ETPs have received inflows for eight consecutive weeks, the optimism in the sector belies the fact that underlying demand remains subdued: global stockpiles have risen in the past week and remain elevated but off multiyear highs reached in February 2017. However, another deficit is forecast for 2017 and with the International Copper Study Group predicting strengthening demand, prices are expected to resume the 2017 rally.
Profit taking in wheat drives outflows to two-year high, totalling US$23mn. The third consecutive week of outflows from wheat ETPs indicates that optimism over the sustainability of the recent wheat rally is fading rapidly. Wheat prices have been surging as drought conditions increase concern about the size of the harvest in the US. However, the crop problems are likely to largely impact spring wheat crop, and winter wheat prices could suffer as the current weather conditions have not had as much impact on crop quality.
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Any products referenced in this document are generally aimed at sophisticated, professional and institutional investors. Any decision to invest should be based on the information contained in the prospectus (and any supplements thereto) of the relevant product issue. The price of any securities may go up or down and an investor may not get back the amount invested. Securities may valued in currencies other than those in which there are priced and will be affected by exchange rate movements. Investments in the securities which provide a short and/or leveraged exposure are only suitable for sophisticated, professional and institutional investors who understand leveraged and compounded daily returns and are willing to magnify potential losses by comparison to investments which do not incorporate these strategies. Over periods of greater than one day, investments with a short and/or leveraged exposure do not necessarily provide investors with a return equivalent to a return from the unleveraged long or unleveraged short investments multiplied by the relevant leverage factor. Investors should refer to the section entitled ”Risk Factors” in the relevant prospectus for further details of these and other risks associated with an investment in any securities referenced in this communication.
If you have any questions please contact ETFS UK at +44 20 7448 4330 or info@etfsecurities.com for more information.
US planting of wheat and corn are down as weak prices deter farmers. Soybeanand cotton planting rise as US farmers hope to continue last year’s increase in exports.
The latest USDA Prospective Planting report shows that farmers are responding to price signals from last year. Wheatplanting is down 8% to the lowest level since records began in 1919. Corn planting is expected to be down 4%. Both of these crops saw record high output last season, which sent wheat and corn prices tumbling 18% and 17% since June 2016. However, to move prices meaningfully higher, other countries will have to restrain planting and the gains in yields we have seen in recent years will have to abate.
Soybean on the other hand is expected to see a 7% rise in planting this season. Last year, a poor South American crop increased demand for US soybean and lent support to its price. US soybean exports rose 4.5% in 2016/17. Although prices have eased in the past month, US farmers are hoping to take further market share this season.
Cotton planting is expected to rise by 21%. That comes as cotton prices have increased 28% in the past year and US exports rose 44% in 2016/17. Cotton has been in a supply deficit for the past two years and US farmers appear to be banking on continued tightness. However, global cotton inventories ex-China have not fallen and remain around the average in the past 10 years. China’s surplus inventory has been declining as the country abandoned it stockpiling programme in 2014. However, China’s imports of cotton may remain restrictive. US farmers will have to rely on growth in imports elsewhere to absorb potential increased production.
(Click to enlarge)
Nitesh Shah, Research Analyst at ETF Securities
Niteshis a Commodities Strategist at ETF Securities. Nitesh has 13 years of experience as an economist and strategist, covering a wide range of markets and asset classes. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nitesh was an economist covering the European structured finance markets at Moody’s Investors Service and was a member of Moody’s global macroeconomics team. Before that he was an economist at the Pension Protection Fund and an equity strategist at Decision Economics. He started his career at HSBC Investment Bank. Nitesh holds a Bachelor of Science in Economics from the London School of Economics and a Master of Arts in International Economics and Finance from Brandeis University (USA).
Gold’s safe haven status intact as inflows increase albeit moderately for the seventh week in a row.
Gold miners lose their allure as we see outflows for the first time in 10 weeks.
Investors turn bearish on German equities ahead of the ECB meeting.
Gold ETP purchases of US$63.2mn mark seventh consecutive week of inflows, while silver ETPs resume inflows of US$1.4mn. After declining 3.05% in August, gold prices found some respite last week following the release of weaker than expected non-farm payrolls data. This further complicates the decision of the Federal Reserve that would need to weigh the impact of the weaker jobs data and ISM manufacturing figures ahead of its next interest rate meeting in September. According to the Fed funds futures, the probability of a rate hike in September has decreased considerably to 26% from 34%. We continue to hold onto our view that the Fed will raise rates this year. However, the latest data releases suggest this is more likely in December than this month. Elsewhere in the sector, platinum ETPs continued to record outflows for the tenth week in a row. The seasonally adjusted US vehicle sales in August came in short of expectations despite considerable discounts provided by dealers, weighing on future demand expectations for palladium.
Gold miner’s equity ETPs see first outflow worth US$9mn in 10 weeks. A marked change in sentiment triggered by the recent decline in gold prices, has led to profit taking. Gold mining stocks are currently worth twice their levels in 2015 are now being perceived as expensive.
Investors turn bearish on European equities as inflows into short German and Italian equity ETPs surge to their highest level in 11 and 15 weeks respectively. Outflows from long German equity ETPs rose in 4 of the last 5 weeks. We believe investors are positioning cautiously ahead of an eventful economic week. The European Central Bank meeting on Thursday remains top of the agenda with a new set of staff projections on inflation and GDP to be released. The market will be poised for any clues about an extension of the Asset Purchase Programme beyond March 2017 or any tweaks to eligibility criteria for government bond purchases in future policy meetings. Revisions to estimates of European GDP growth and German Industrial production are due at the start of the week.
In currencies investors unwind short EUR positions versus long USD ETPs for the second consecutive week by US$4.8mn. After the US dollar strengthened for 2 consecutive weeks, profit taking prompted investors to unwind the short EUR, long USD ETPs positions.
Wheatinflows rise to US$9.6mn marking its highest level in six weeks. Consensus remains for abundant global supply as forecasts for production in 2016/17 are raised. As prices reached a 10-year low on Monday, bargain-hunting investors bought wheat ETPs. They benefited from price-supporting news in the latter half of the week. The European Commission revised downward its forecast for the EU soft wheat crop by nearly 8%. Wheat imports into India are expected to rise as its wheat stock has declined to the lowest level in 10 years, which has also supported prices.
Video Presentation
Aneeka Gupta, Research Analyst at ETF Securities provides an analysis of last week’s performance, flow and trading activity in commodity exchange traded products and a look at the week ahead.
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ETF Securities Research team ETF Securities (UK) Limited T +44 (0) 207 448 4336 E info@etfsecurities.com
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