WisdomTree bolsters its commitment to Fixed Income Research and Strategy. WisdomTree appoints Lidia Treiber as Director of Research.
WisdomTree, an exchange-traded fund (“ETF”) and exchange-traded product (“ETP”) sponsor, is pleased to announce the appointment of Lidia Treiber as Director – Research for WisdomTree in Europe.
In her role, Lidia Treiber will lead the Fixed Income Research in Europe, deepening the WisdomTree’s fixed income capabilities and ensuring that investors receive up-to-date, expert insight into global developments in this asset class.
Lidia has over eleven years of experience in the investment management industry, having spent the last four years as Fixed Income Specialist at Invesco ETFs. Prior to that, she was part of Wellington Management where she worked with the firm’s largest institutional clients, and BlackRock where Lidia Treiber was a Research Analyst and Fixed Income Product Strategist. Lidia brings with her a breadth of research knowledge, product specialism and institutional and retail relationship management from the UK, Continental Europe and the US.
Lidia will report to Christopher Gannatti, Head of Research in Europe, and is an important hire for the business as it bolsters its commitment to the fixed income space. She will work directly with the firm’s existing, robust research team based in London and the US and her addition exemplifies WisdomTree’s commitment to offering investors a broad array of differentiated investment strategies.
Christopher Gannatti said, “Lidia is the perfect candidate to strengthen the Company’s fixed income research and knowledge set. Investment in ETFs in this asset class appears set to surge again in 2019. Lidia will play a key role in providing market insights and in shining a light on WisdomTree’s smart beta products in this space, ensuring we continue to help educate and inform investors”.
About WisdomTree UK Ltd.
WisdomTree Investments, Inc., through its subsidiaries in the US, Europe and Canada (collectively, ”WisdomTree”), is an exchange traded fund (”ETF”) and exchange traded product (”ETP”) sponsor. WisdomTree offers products covering equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities and alternative strategies. Through WisdomTree UK Limited, it sponsors WisdomTree UCITS ETFs and ETPs from ETF Securities and Boost, in a wide range of asset classes, including short and leverage ETPs. WisdomTree currently has approximately $56.1 billion (as of 10 January 2019) in assets under management globally. For more information, please visit www.wisdomtree.com.
WisdomTree® is the marketing name for WisdomTree Investments, Inc. and its subsidiaries worldwide.
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The content on this document is issued by WisdomTree UK Ltd (“WTUK”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.
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Indiska-aktier och landsspecifika börshandlade fonder var bland de få som steg i torsdags. Detta efter att den indiska centralbanken oväntat sänkte sin nyckelräntesats och övergått till en mer duvaktig hållning. Indiensaktiemarknad rusar efter oväntad räntesänkning
Bland de ledande börshandlade fonderna på marknaden var iShares MSCI India Small Cap ETF (NYSEArca: SMIN) 1,6%, VanEck Vectors India Small Cap Index ETF (NYSEArca: SCIF) som ökade 1,8%. WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (NYSE : EPI) avancerade med 1,1%.
Indiska small och mid cap aktier ledde uppgången efter räntesänkningen, eftersom många observatörer hävdade att förväntningarna redan var bakade i marknadspriserna.
”Marknader var redan prisat in (räntesänkningen), så inte mycket av en spänning att ses. Men det här är en bra tid för att sänka räntorna, eftersom fokus ligger på att öka privata investeringar ”, säger Sushant Kumar, fondförvaltare för eget kapital på Raay Global Investments Pvt till Bloomberg.
Indiens aktiemarknader har stärkts sedan Shaktikanta Das utsågs till centralbankens nya guvernör.
”Även om låneutgifterna kan gå ned lite, är bekymmer om Indiens finanspolitiska underskott fortfarande ett överhäng av känslor, säger Viral Berawala, investeringschef på Essel Finance Asset Management Ltd, till Bloomberg. ”Det positiva verkar vara på kort sikt.”
Bankaktier rusade
Bankaktier var bland de som rusade av på sänkningen av beslutet, vilket bidrog till att stödja ETFerna som har en stor vikt stora finansinstitutet i Indien. Till exempel har SMIN en 24,5% allokering mot finanssektorn och EPI innehåller en 23,0% position i finanserna.
”Det är ett positivt steg eftersom detta kommer att bidra till att sänka upplåningskostnaden. Vi förväntar oss att bank- och autoaktier ska reagera positivt på denna utveckling, säger A. K. Prabhakar, analysschef vid IDBI Capital Market Services Ltd.
Framöver ser RBI: s räntebeslut att göra likviditeten billigare, särskilt för banker med inriktning på högre låneutveckling och tillgångsköp från icke-bankfinansieringsföretag. Sameer Kalra, president vid Target Investing, hävdade att de sektorer som kommer till nytta kommer att omfatta statliga och privata banker. Lättnaden kommer också att hjälpa till med konsumtionsfrågan.
El Niño refers to a climate cycle in the Pacific Ocean that has a global impact on weather patterns. The name, which loosely translates to ‘Christ child’, traces its origin back to Peruvian fisherman in the 1600s, who observed that fish yields would often decline around Christmas time as sea water temperatures rose. The effects of El Niño include specific wind patterns across the Pacific Ocean, heavy rain in South America, and droughts in Australia and parts of Asia including India and Indonesia.
With the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasting a 96% probability of an El Niño weather event during the current Northern Hemisphere winter, there is a strong chance that we could see some weather abnormalities in the coming months.
Figure 1. The probability of El Niño occurring this year
Why El Niño matters for agricultural commodity prices
El Niño can have a significant impact on the fortunes of the agricultural industry, as the growing of agricultural products is highly sensitive to weather patterns. The right amount of sun and rain at the right time is important to produce the optimal yield. For example, droughts can ruin a crop because of insufficient water, while floods can wash away plants, or delay the process of harvesting a good crop from the ground, causing it to spoil.
While El Niño can have a considerable effect on agricultural commodity prices, the specific impact on the price of any individual commodity will depend on the El Niño’s amplitude and timing, as well as locational factors such as where the crop is grown and how prepared the farmers are for extreme conditions.
Figure 2. Weather impact of El Niño
Source: NOAA
Analysing the impact on agricultural commodity prices
When assessing likely El Niño effects, the first step is to consider the time of the year that El Niño is likely to begin. In this case, the NOAA believes that the event is likely to arrive in the Northern Hemisphere winter this year, but there is a good chance that it could linger into the Northern Hemisphere summer with a lower intensity. The next step is to assess which part of the crop cycle it will affect. According to research by Iizumi et al., a weather disturbance during the ‘reproductive’ growth period of the crop cycle tends to have the largest impact on crop yields.
Using insights from Iizumi et al. we have assessed the possible near-term impact from an El Niño on crops that are in the reproductive phase of growth. We summarise our key thoughts below:
Bullish on sugar, cocoa, and wheat
Agricultural commodities that we are bullish on in the event of an El Niño include sugar, cocoa, and wheat.
Sugar production is highly concentrated in India and certain regions of Brazil. If El Niño occurs, it’s likely that both countries could see below-average rainfall and drier conditions, and this could drive prices higher.
Indonesia, which produces 10% of global cocoa supply, could also be directly affected by an El Niño, and dry warm weather in Indonesia could potentially drive cocoa prices higher.
Australia, which produces 4% of global wheat supply, is another country that could face dry weather if El Niño emerges. This could have a positive impact on wheat prices, although much of the wheat harvest is expected to be completed by mid-January, which should limit the impact of an El Niño.
Brazil and Argentina, who together are responsible for almost half of the world’s soybean supply, are likely to experience favourable growing conditions in the event of an El Niño. As such, an El Niño could prove to be price negative for soybean prices.
Figure 3. The effect of El Niño on soybean growing during the December to March reproductive growth phase
Source: Adapted by WisdomTree from “Impacts of Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops” by Iizumi et al, May 2014
Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
The effects of El Niño on corn are less significant, but could be mildly positive for growing conditions in South America and parts of Australia, and hence slightly price bearish.
Arabica coffee production is highly concentrated in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Central America. These countries could experience favourable growing conditions, and given that most of the coffee in these regions will be in a reproductive growth phase in the months ahead, we could see a positive supply shock to the commodity, which would be bearish for prices.
Other factors
We caution that the analysis above is based on the pure effect of an El Niño event and does not consider the many other factors that can impact crop yields. We’ll also point out that agricultural commodity prices can be affected by a number of other developments such as exchange-rate movements and trade policies. However, the analysis is useful as a rough guide as to how commodity prices could potentially be affected if we do experience an El Niño event in the near term.
DISCLAIMER
The content on this document is issued by WisdomTree UK Ltd (“WTUK”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.
Global markets, led largely by US equities, have been treated to a fairly robust period since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09. As 2019 begins, investors are beginning to think about what might happen if that next recession actually materializes, as the US has undergone what is now close to the longest ever economic expansion in the post World War Two period. Importantly, measures of volatility indicate a higher overall level of risk, relative to either the start of 2017 or the start of 2018.
In such environments, we believe that investors might be thinking about positioning their investment strategies in a more defensively-oriented manner. There still could be good reason to hold risky assets, as late cycle rallies can and do occur, but it may now be more important to mitigate downside risk.
We’d cite the age-old investment truism—if a portfolio loses 50% of its value, what is the rate of return required to get back to even? While many might initially say “50%”, the true answer is 100%. Strategies that lead to the potential for less negative returns in tougher markets can therefore be quite valuable.
At WisdomTree, we can think of four primary means to mitigate the risk that a given strategy drops significantly in a given downturn. Unfortunately, they don’t always work to the same degree and they aren’t guaranteed to work across every market downdraft, but they are important to keep in mind nonetheless.
Strategy 1: Find historically low valuations.
When investors locate valuations that are at or near historic lows, this can be an important signal that a lot of risks that may be dominating the headlines have been priced in. Another way to think of this is that all the reasons to worry have already caused the market in question to decline, so absent even more, new and surprising reasons to worry, it could be tough for that market to decline further. There is word commonly associated with this type of strategy: Contrarian.
Possible markets to consider on this basis: Emerging markets, Italian equities—particularly Italian financial sector, and Japanese equities.
Strategy 2: Find high dividend yielding stocks
One aspect of this strategy considers that, in equities, there is always a dividend component and a price component of a given total return calculation. The dividend component, at worst, can be zero, in that there are no dividends, whereas the price component can clearly be positive, zero, or negative. A strategy focused on higher yielding stocks is tilting more of the total return’s generation towards dividends and way from prices, and, since the dividend component of the return is less volatile, this is one way to lower the risk of an equity strategy.
The other aspect to consider regards the fact that higher yielding stocks tend to be found in more defensively oriented sectors, such as utilities. Tilting exposure toward these sectors can be another potential avenue through which the total risk of an equity strategy can be lowered.
Possible markets to consider on this basis: Emerging markets equities, European equities, and US equities.
Strategy 3: Sell assets that have positive price correlation to volatility
Using history as our guide, when equity markets enter severely negative trends, it has been typical to see measures like the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spike in the upward direction. The VIX has an important signalling capability, in that it indicates the forward-looking expectations of future volatility for the S&P 500. If the VIX is higher, it means that forward-looking expectations of volatility are expected to be higher. Certain assets like put options that have the S&P 500 as their underlying index would tend to see their prices rise in accordance with the rising VIX levels.
There is a well-known strategy where one can sell put options on the S&P 500, thereby collecting the premiums. The case for any put-writing strategy is of course directly tied to the underlying index upon which the options themselves are being written. If the premiums can tend to rise along with a rising VIX, what this indicates is a potential for the cushioning of downside risk during tougher market environments.
In the US, equities had reached record highs in early October of 2018 and valuations were quite high relative to other global markets. Record high prices and high relative valuations do tend to give investors more cause for concern to worry about downside risk, and this concern in our view is a critical catalyst for considering a put writing strategy.
Possible markets to consider on this basis: US equities.
Strategy 4: Don’t forget about traditional “safe haven” assets
Each of the first three strategies takes an approach to lower the risk of a given exposure either to equities directly or to something with high correlation to equities. We recognize that as volatility picks up, holding equities may become a less desirable approach whether or not is using some form of risk mitigation within the approach.
If volatility is increasing due to the perception of increased geopolitical risk, gold may be worth considering. Historically, when investors have been concerned about unexpected events or surprised by the direction politics takes in a major country, gold has been associated with delivering a differentiated return stream as compared to equities.
Another avenue might regard certain currencies, such as the US Dollar or Japanese Yen. These currencies have indicated a capability to increase in value as volatility has increased.
Possible markets to consider on this basis: Gold, US Dollar, Japanese Yen
Due to recent events, we have focused here on more defensively-oriented angles here. If investors are uncertain in their 2019 positioning, these approaches may lower their overall portfolios risk. For more information, visit WisdomTree.com.
DISCLAIMER
The content on this document is issued by WisdomTree UK Ltd (“WTUK”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.
Gold staged a recovery late in 2018. The yellow metal has recovered most of its losses since June 2018. A collapse in speculative positioning in gold futures drove prices down in the second half of the year, sentiment toward gold is clearly recovering in recent weeks. We expect the recovery to continue as many risks that were being ignored by the market start to get priced-in to gold. Our base case scenario is for gold to reach close to US$1370/oz by year end.
Figure 1: Gold price forecast
Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, Bloomberg Historical Data, data available as of close 31 December 2018. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
In 2018 speculative positioning fell to the lowest level since 2001 briefly before recovering very late in the year. Judging by flows into gold Exchange Traded Products, sentiment toward the metal is clearly recovering. Asset market volatility in the final weeks of the year was one of the main catalysts behind the recovery in gold positioning. The S&P 500 lost 14% and Brent oil fell by 35% in the final quarter of 2018. Moreover, the volatility of both benchmarks has risen substantially.
A government shutdown in the US acted as a jolt to investors to remind them that the world’s engine of growth (at least in recent times) is not invincible. Meanwhile concerns around China’s slowing growth rate also led investors to become less optimistic about cyclical assets.
Fed to continue to tighten policy
We expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise rates twice in 2019 (50 basis points), in line with the dot-plots in the central bank’s recent economic forecasts . That’s also in line with consensus forecasts by economists, however, Fed fund futures are not pricing in any rate increases for 2019. We side with the Fed’s guidance as we believe that economic data from the country is strong enough and labour markets are tight enough for the central bank to continue to raise rates. However, we acknowledge the risk to rates is on the downside – which in general should play to the upside for gold prices.
US Treasury bond yield curve to invert
Although we expect a total of 50 basis points increase in policy rates by Q4 2019, we think that 10-year bond yields will only increase around 25 basis points to 3.0% in that time horizon. 2-year bond yields are likely to capture more of the gains in policy rates, but further out in the curve, we are likely to see less yield increases. That’s because the Fed’s holding of a large stock of bonds is likely to hold yields back from rising too aggressively. Also, recent tax cuts are likely to have the most impact in the very short term.
As the growth impact peters out over longer horizons, the uplift to yields at the longer end of the curve will be less than at the short end. Although many people see yield curve inversion as a financial signal of impending economic downturn, we believe that an inversion can occur for the less benign reasons outlined above and so it is not necessarily a precursor to an economic recession. If anything, we believe the Fed will err on the side of dovishness, as it will be reluctant to drive policy too far from other central banks. In fact, Fed fund futures indicate that the market thinks that the Fed will stop raising rates altogether this year. That could prove to be supportive for gold prices over the course of 2019.
Figure 2: Nominal US 10 year Bond Yields forecast
Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, Bloomberg Historical Data, data available as of close 31 December 2018. Forecasts are not an
indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
US Dollar appreciation to be short-lived
While the Fed remains the only major central bank raising interest rates over in the first half of the year, we expect the US Dollar to continue to appreciate, especially as judging by Fed fund futures, the market is currently not expecting further tightening. However, as other major central banks – the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England for example start to think about policy normalisation, we could see interest rate differentials narrow and the US Dollar weaken. Additionally, with growing indebtedness in the US – exacerbated by recent tax cuts – we expect a depreciation in the US Dollar.
Figure 3: US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast
Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, Bloomberg Historical Data, data available as of close 31 December 2018. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Inflationary pressures to persist, but remain contained by Fed’s policy
US consumer price index (CPI) inflation peaked at 2.9% in July 2018 and declined to 2.2% in November 2018. Volatile energy prices were responsible for a large part of the rise and decline. We expect the Fed’s policy tightening to continue to keep demand-driven inflation in check, but a recovery in oil prices will likely place upward pressure on inflation at the headline level. We expect a small increase in inflation to 2.3% by year-end.
Figure 4: Consumer Price Index inflation forecast
Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, Bloomberg Historical Data, data available as of close 31 December 2018. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
What will help sentiment toward gold improve?
Summarising the monetary/economic drivers of gold – small increases in interest rates, minor appreciation followed by depreciation of the US Dollar and inflation moving marginally higher – are not going to move the dial for gold in a big way. We believe that that gold prices will end the forecast period higher mainly as a result of sentiment towards gold continuing to move out of a depressed state. This process had started already in the final week of 2018 as most markets displayed excessive volatility.
We have had multiple bouts of equity market volatility in 2018, but for most part developed world equities have snapped back. That does not guarantee resilience in the face of the next shock. We note that the last time speculative positioning in gold hit levels as low as they did in 2018 was in 2001 – the year when an Argentine debt crisis was brewing, and an overvalued technology sector was imploding. Gold reacted to the stress scenario but with latency. Gold prices rose 25% in 2002 (compared to 2% in 2001) .
There are other risks, that could be supportive for gold as historically a safe haven asset, which could drive positioning in gold futures higher:
No deal Brexit– The UK’s prime minister appears to have insufficient support for the terms of withdrawal from the EU that she has been responsible for negotiating. Although she survived a vote of no confidence from her own party, it clear that the proposal is detested by leave and remain MPs alike. Renegotiating the terms of withdrawal appear impossible at this stage and so it is difficult to see how either side will be appeased by the current deal.
We believe the most likely outcome will be for some form of extension beyond the March 30th deadline, however, there is a risk that doesn’t happen and there would be` no withdrawal deal in place. Leaving the EU in such an uncertain manner is likely to be very disruptive for both the UK and EU. Even if there is an extension to the deadline, uncertainty will linger, which will support demand for haven assets.
Trade-wars – Our working assumption is that rising protectionism in the US is not going to damage global economic demand. In fact, there are signs that the rift between the US and China is beginning to thaw. However, we have seen similar signs before which have been followed by a deterioration of the relationship. If tit-for-tat protectionist measures escalate, the market could be driven into a risk-off mindset.
The US government is currently shut down as President Trump vies congress to fund his border wall with Mexico. The risk of the standoff becoming prolonged could support demand for haven assets. Indeed, even if the government reopens soon, the risk of the Trump administration continuously using the threat of shutdowns as a strategy to gain leverage over congress is likely to hurt investor confidence in cyclical assets.
In our forecast, we bring back speculative positioning in gold futures to levels consistent with what we have seen in the past five years.
Figure 5: Gold futures speculative positioning
Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, Bloomberg Historical Data, data available as of close 31 December 2018. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Combining the monetary, economic and sentiment driven factors affecting gold, we believe gold will reach close to US$1370/oz by the end of this year.
Alternative scenarios
We have also developed alternative scenarios for gold as summarised below. Most of the sensitivity comes from our measure of sentiment, speculative positioning. But even in our bear case, we increase positioning into positive territory. In our bull case scenario, we assume the Fed will allow the economy to run hot, only raising rates once, which will put less pressure on bond yields to rise, aid US Dollar depreciation and keep inflation elevated at 2.9%. In the bear case, conversely, we assume the Fed acts more hawkishly and has more impact on the longer bond yields. The US Dollar appreciates as the Fed surprises the market with its hawkishness.
Source: WisdomTree Model Forecasts, Bloomberg Historical Data, data available as of close 31 December 2018. Forecasts are not an indicator of future performance and any investments are subject to risks and uncertainties.
Conclusion
In our base case scenario, we expect gold prices to rise close to US$1370/oz by Q4 2019, mainly as a result of speculative positioning in the futures market being restored. Some US Dollar depreciation and small gains in inflation will also aid gold’s rise.
DISCLAIMER
The content on this document is issued by WisdomTree UK Ltd (“WTUK”), which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Our Conflicts of Interest Policy and Inventory are available on request.
