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Emission scandal’s impact on platinum overdone

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Platinum and Palladium Update - Emission scandal’s impact on platinum overdone Negative sentiment around platinum out of sync with the metal’s positive fundamentals

Platinum and Palladium Update – Emission scandal’s impact on platinum overdone

• Negative sentiment around platinum out of sync with the metal’s positive fundamentals
• Misconception about role of precious group metals (PGM) in nitrogen oxide (NOx) treatment unduly impacts the metals
• Capex reduction by miners to curb platinum supply
• Record US auto sales spur palladium prices higher

The Volkswagen emission scandal revealed on 18 September caused a sharp divergence in sentiment resulting in platinum’s premium over palladium falling to its lowest level in 13 years. Despite an improvement in the demand outlook for platinum from jewellery and investment, negative sentiment for platinum continues to weigh on its price.

Understanding the intricacies of the emissions

The software defeat device used in Volkswagen’s diesel engines cheated on the results of NOx testing, violating the US clean air act. Versions of the Volkswagen’s diesel engines fitted with the Lean NOx trap (LNT) and urea based selective catalytic reduction (SCR) system emitted up to 35 and 20 times the EPAs required limit respectively. The global rollout of stringent regulations are emphasizing NOx reduction in emissions from diesel engines, demanding higher amounts of ammonia and thus increasing the risk of ammonia slippage into the environment. In contrast to the gasoline engine, diesel engines while coping with hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) easily, struggle with NOx. A key technological solution is a highly selective ammonia slip catalyst in the final stage of the after-treatment system. The figure below depicts the treatment of the HC, CO, NOx and particulate matter (PM) at different stages of the emission cycle using the SCR system.

ETF Securities Platinum

HC and CO are oxidised via a PGM based diesel oxidation catalyst while the particulate matter are captured by the catalyzed soot filter, leaving only NOx to be treated. Recent models fitted with the SCR system require a top off of a urea solution on gases exiting the diesel oxidation catalyst. The software on Volkswagen cars sensed when the test mode was active and released urea into the emission gas to neutralize harmful nitrogen dioxide emissions.

No fundamental impact on platinum

Despite having no role to play in the final stage of the after treatment of NOx emissions platinum suffered the brunt of the scandal. It’s worth noting that a recall of cars by Volkswagen will also have no direct bearing on the demand for platinum, since the NOx after-treatment is not impacted by the PGM based oxidation catalyst used for HC and CO. Despite being known to derive 44% of its use in autocatalysts for both diesel and gasoline cars, fears of a consumer shift in preference for gasoline vs diesel cars have weighed on the demand outlook for platinum. While the case for fuel efficiency remains strong for diesel engines it’s hard to determine how long Volkswagen’s deception will curtail demand. The trend of rising European auto sales is diverging from the downward trajectory of platinum prices.

Gold:Platinum ratio at 19 year high

ETF Securities Gold Platinum Ratio

Plunging platinum prices have led a sharp rally in the gold to platinum ratio and could help switch investor preference for cheaper platinum jewellery. The onset of the festival season in India coupled with rising platinum imports from China (up 16% year on year) bodes well for Q4 demand outlook.

While platinum backed exchange traded fund holdings increased 4% from January to August this year, the past month holdings have pared back to 2% illustrating investor’s reaction to the news.

Supply

On the supply side, improvement in operational and safety performance helped South African platinum mine production rise 21% quarter on quarter in Q2 as reported by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC). Scrap supply declined in the second quarter by 5% as falling prices reduced auto catalyst collection rates. Despite a 9% rise in predicted total supply, WPIC have revised the 2015 forecast for the platinum market deficit to 445koz from 190koz in their latest Q2 update on the back of higher investment demand.

Capex reductions as miners struggle to survive

Rising costs of production amidst falling prices have forced the world’s largest miners of platinum to slash jobs and idle mines in an attempt to reduce capex. Lonmin, the world’s third largest platinum producer will cut annual platinum production by 100k ounces putting 6000 jobs at risk. While Anglo American platinum sold its three platinum mines in Rustenburg to Sibanye Gold. And its parent Anglo American plans to cut a third of the global workforce over the next few years. The closure of the Eland platinum mine in South Africa that produced 35k ounces of platinum in the first quarter has been confirmed by Glencore. Zimbabwe home to the largest platinum reserves after South Africa has asked miners to reduce power usage by 25% amid a water shortage that’s cut hydropower supply.

We believe platinum prices have been unduly impacted by the emissions scandal and weakness in platinum prices will continue in the short term as negative sentiment pervades fundamentals. However rising auto sales in US and Europe, the onset of the festival season in India and China and moderate speculative investment appetite against the backdrop of cuts in production bodes well for platinum’s long term demand outlook.

Palladium: Fuelling up on diesel woes

Palladium known for generating 70% of its use in gasoline auto catalysts, surged to a 3month high $712. Fears of a shift in investor preference to gasoline powered engines coupled with the best US auto sales in more than a decade improved the demand outlook for palladium.

Palladium prices versus US Auto Sales ETF Securities

In addition President Li Keqiang’s announcement on 22 September to accelerate construction of electric-car charging facilities in China boosted palladium prices. While in reality palladium has no role to play in electric cars, the government’s commitment to clean energy was bolstered, aiding the pollution abating metal.
The rise in Chinese palladium imports of 14% in August closely tracked by rising auto sales of 12% created a favorable environment for palladium’s demand.

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This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. When being made within Italy, this communication is for the exclusive use of the “qualified investors” and its circulation among the public is prohibited. This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as, an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares or securities in the United States or any province or territory thereof. Neither this document nor any copy hereof should be taken, transmitted or distributed (directly or indirectly) into the United States. This document may contain independent market commentary prepared by ETFS UK based on publicly available information. ETFS UK does not warrant or guarantee the ac-curacy or correctness of any information contained herein and any opinions related to product or market activity may change. Any third party data providers used to source the information in this communication make no warranties or representation of any kind relating to such data. The information contained in this communication is neither an offer for sale nor a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. This communication should not be used as the basis for any investment decision. ETFS UK is required by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority (“FSA”) to clarify that it is not acting for you in any way in relation to the investment or investment activity to which this communication relates. In particular, ETFS UK will not provide any investment services to you and or advise you on the merits of, or make any recom-mendation to you in relation to, the terms of any transaction. No representative of ETFS UK is authorised to behave in any way which would lead you to believe otherwise. ETFS UK is not, therefore, responsible for providing you with the protections afforded to its clients and you should seek your own independent legal, investment and tax or other advice as you see fit.

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Valour Chainlink (LINK) SEK ger exponering mot kryptovalutan LINK

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Valour Chainlink (LINK) SEK är en börshandlad produkt som spårar priset på LINK, den inhemska kryptovalutan i Chainlinks ekosystem.

Valour Chainlink (LINK) SEK är en börshandlad produkt som spårar priset på LINK, den inhemska kryptovalutan i Chainlinks ekosystem.

Chainlink är ett decentraliserat orakelnätverk som underlättar smarta kontrakt på blockchain-plattformar för att säkert ansluta till verkliga data, vilket möjliggör genomförandet av förtroendefria och manipuleringssäkra avtal. Det fungerar som en brygga mellan blockkedjebaserade smarta kontrakt och externa datakällor, vilket ger en pålitlig och decentraliserad lösning för att föra information utanför kedjan till blockkedjan.

Produktinformation

EmittentValour Inc.
NamnValour Chainlink (LINK) SEK
ISINCH1161139592
Valoren116113959
BasvalutaSEK
Underliggande tillgångCHAINLINK (LINK/USD)
FörfallodagOpen-Ended
Förvaltningskostnad1,9%

Handla Valour Chainlink (LINK)

Valour Chainlink (LINK) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt som handlas på bland annat Nordic Growth Market.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETP genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsKortnamnValuta
Nordic Growth MarketVALOUR CHAINLINK (LINK) SEKSEK

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Bitcoin Warms up to Climate Goals and Ethereum’s Next Milestone: What Happened in Crypto This Week?

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Bitcoin Warms up to Climate Goals and Ethereum’s Next Milestone: What Happened in Crypto This Week? European Economy Booms while Regulators Consider Adopting Crypto

• European Economy Booms while Regulators Consider Adopting Crypto

• Bitcoin’s Growing Fundamentals and Institutionalization

• Ethereum’s Next Leap Forward: A Glimpse at the Upcoming Upgrade

European Economy Booms while Regulators Consider Adopting Crypto

Europe’s economy has exceeded expectations, with Germany’s gross domestic product (GDP) for Q1 2024 increasing by 0.2%, compared to the previous quarter’s reading of -0.5%. Additionally, France, Italy, and Spain are also seeing progress, picking up the bloc’s GDP from -0.1% to 0.3%. This is a good sign that Europe is on the right track away from a recession. Matching the positive outlook, regulators appear receptive to including new alternative assets within the EU’s most established regulatory framework.

Namely, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is considering cryptoassets, among other asset classes like commodities and precious metals, in its Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities (UCITS). Similar to mutual funds in the U.S., UCITS funds can be registered and sold in any country in the EU using unified regulatory and investor protection requirements. These funds are considered safe, well-regulated investments, hence their €12T market valuation and popularity among pension funds and risk-averse investors.

On May 7, ESMA invited investors and trade associations, among others, for a consultation to assess possible benefits and risks of UCITS gaining exposure to the selected 19 asset classes, having until August 7 to gather input. This is important since UCITS accounts for 75% of all collective retail investments in the EU. Thus, if the conclusions of this consultation are in favor of adopting crypto, it would attract an influx of investors and bring more regulated accessibility to this asset class. Moreover, although still under consultation, ESMA’s deliberation adds more credibility to crypto, considering the regulator’s renowned strict regulatory standards.

Further, the EU’s inflation is inching towards the 2% target, overshooting by only 0.4% in the past month, a level the U.S. is yet to achieve, with March’s inflation hitting 3.5%. Later today, a strong gauge for inflation is coming out, the Producer Price Index (PPI), measuring the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. With the last consumer price index (CPI) disappointing, all eyes are on the CPI print coming out this Wednesday, along with data on retail sales. Although optimism seems to have checked out, a cooled inflation rate would recover investors’ appetite for risk-on assets like crypto, instigating more flows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have been especially quiet over the past week, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: US Spot Bitcoin ETFs Flows

Source: Glassnode

Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s narrative has been growing beyond its primary use case as a store of value, with companies and governments alike leveraging Bitcoin mining to reduce their negative impact on the environment, ironically something Bitcoin is often scrutinized for.

Bitcoin’s Growing Fundamentals and Institutionalization

On May 7, Genesis Digital Assets and Argentina’s state-owned YPF Luz, the country’s largest producer of oil and gas with a ∼40% share in 2021, announced their opening of a Bitcoin mining facility. The data center takes ‘stranded gas,’ a byproduct of oil and gas production that would otherwise be flared and contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, to power the mining operation with the potential to reduce carbon dioxide equivalent emissions by 25-63%. Notably, 50 major oil and gas companies, representing over 40% of global petroleum production, signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonization Charter (OGDC), thereby committing to end gas flaring by 2030. The Argentinian project serves as a prime example of how companies can achieve the goals outlined in the OGDC, an approach likely to be replicated by others potentially using Bitcoin.

Aside from the obvious environmental benefits, projects like these actually strengthen Bitcoin’s network! More miners joining the fray means greater computing power, reflected by the growing hash rate in Figure 2. This results in a more secure network, as 51% attacks become more costly to execute successfully. The development comes at a crucial point in time, calming fears over miners exiting the network to cover costs, a dynamic often witnessed post-halving and one we explored in our Bitcoin Halving Report.

Figure 2 – Bitcoin Growing Hash Rate

Source: 21co on Dune

On a more familiar note, institutions continue to gobble up Bitcoin as an investment opportunity. The recent 13F filings mentioned last week revealed a growing appetite for Bitcoin as investment managers continue to disclose their U.S. equity holdings to the SEC. Quantitative trading firm Susquehanna holds over $1B in Bitcoin ETFs, with Boston-based hedge fund Bracebridge disclosing their $380M position too. Furthermore, in Japan, a weakened yen and government debt reaching 250% of GDP confirms sustained economic pressure, which has led early-stage investment firm Metaplanet to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve. They have acquired over $7M since April, another testament to Bitcoin’s value proposition as a safe haven. The continuous adoption of Bitcoin is no surprise, given the accessibility of Bitcoin ETFs to traditional institutions through a regulated and familiar investment vehicle.

The positive Bitcoin sentiment is amplified by continuous innovation on the network itself. Bitcoin’s prime scaling solution, the Lightning Network, has taken a significant leap forward. By leveraging the Taproot Asset Upgrade, the Lightning Network successfully tested a protocol for issuing stablecoins directly on Bitcoin. This underscores the trend of Bitcoin’s growing use cases following the launch of Runes, which unlocked the ability to launch fungible tokens on Bitcoin. The recent surge in on-chain activity is reminiscent of the ERC-20 explosion in Ethereum’s early days, and stablecoins would truly unlock Bitcoin’s DeFi potential. They facilitate a wide range of transactions, shown below by Ethereum stablecoins amassing $3.8T in 2024 processed volume so far.

Figure 3 – Ethereum Stablecoin Volume

Source: 21co on Dune

While still in the early stages, this development would also significantly boost miner revenue, offering them a much-needed additional income stream through transaction fees, following the halving of block rewards last month. The potential of stablecoins on Bitcoin will be monitored going forward, as they have clear implications for the network’s potential on-chain footprint.

Ethereum’s Next Leap Forward: A Glimpse at the Upcoming Upgrade

More information is finally starting to come out regarding Ethereum’s next major upgrade, slated for late this year or early next year. Known as Pectra, the upgrade promises to introduce a range of enhancements aimed at bolstering the network’s stability and refining user experience. For example, the upgrade will raise the maximum stake per validator from 32 to 2,048 ETH, streamlining the management process for large validators who spread their stake across multiple wallets. Moreover, Pectra will tackle the problem of empty accounts, those with zero assets or funds, by removing them from the network. This action reduces the network’s state size, which effectively leads to lighter transaction processing.

Although the upgrade will incorporate various Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), one in particular stands out. Referred to as EIP 7702, Vitalik Buterin’s new proposal aims to expand upon the advancements made in Account Abstraction (AA) on Ethereum by refining certain concepts introduced in an earlier proposal, EIP 3074. As a quick recap, AA transforms users’ wallets, externally owned accounts (EOAs), into more sophisticated accounts resembling smart contracts, enhancing security, flexibility, and simplified user management. That said, EIP 7702 addresses some of EIP 3074 criticisms by steering clear of dependencies on EOA-specific functionalities. It aims to establish a versatile system capable of meeting the evolving needs of the Ethereum ecosystem while helping to reduce technical debt for the network

However, EIP 7702 proposes several other enhancements, including batched transactions, which could enhance transaction efficiency and even reduce fees by consolidating multiple user actions. Another exciting feature is the introduction of s sponsored transactions, which allow third-party applications to cover transaction fees for consumers, an ideal solution for onboarding new users. Finally, the upgrade could make users’ accounts resistant to threats from quantum computing. That said, with the proposal’s introduction of a new transaction type enabling EOAs to temporarily transition into smart accounts, concerns arise regarding the heightened risk of malicious actors’ ability to swiftly drain user wallets. Nevertheless, Vitalik’s proposal is intriguing as it charts a more pragmatic course toward realizing the AA vision. This is pivotal because it echoes our thesis at 21Shares that crypto won’t onboard millions of more users without providing them with an intuitive interface resembling the user-friendly experience they are familiar with across Web2.

Now, while Ethereum’s long-term prospects remain promising, its status as a deflationary network has come under threat in recent weeks, as seen below in Figure 3. This decline is primarily attributed to decreasing on-chain activity, which peaked at the end of March. Furthermore, the DenCun upgrade, implemented in March, significantly reduced the costs L2s incurred for storing their data on Ethereum by 90%.

Figure 4 – Ethereum’s Inflation

Source: 21co on Dune

It is worth noting that while it is currently more cost-effective for L2s to operate on Ethereum, these reduced costs will eventually onboard a larger user base. This will make it more feasible for applications, especially those requiring a high volume of interactions, to operate within the Ethereum ecosystem, which was previously economically unviable. A pivotal piece of evidence supporting this perspective is Arbitrum’s recent milestone, onboarding approximately 600K daily active users, as depicted in Figure 4. This likely influenced Securitize’s decision to propose deploying Blackrock’s BUIDL on Arbitrum, considering its position as the pioneering L2 platform with such a vibrant user base, alongside being the first L2 to process over $150B in swap volume on Uniswap, putting Arbitrum as the leading Ethereum scaling solution. Nevertheless, readers shouldn’t be wary, as we expect a broader spectrum of applications to arrive at the Ethereum network, helping to fill in the gap for Ethereum’s lost revenue while expanding the universe for what is possible within its ecosystem.

Figure 4 – Daily Active Users of Ethereum’s Leading Solutions

Source: GrowThePie

This Week’s Calendar

Source: Forex Factory, 21Shares

Research Newsletter

Each week the 21Shares Research team will publish our data-driven insights into the crypto asset world through this newsletter. Please direct any comments, questions, and words of feedback to research@21shares.com

Disclaimer

The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or other offering material and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of any offer to buy securities in any jurisdiction. Some of the information published herein may contain forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax or other advice and users are cautioned to base investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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CRPA ETF investerar i företagsobligationer och återinvesterar utdelningen

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iShares Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (CRPA ETF) investerar i företagsobligationer med fokus på World. ETF:n innehar hela utbudet av obligationsförfall. De underliggande obligationerna har Investment Grade-betyg. Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i fonden återinvesteras (ackumuleras).

iShares Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (CRPA ETF) investerar i företagsobligationer med fokus på World. ETF:n innehar hela utbudet av obligationsförfall. De underliggande obligationerna har Investment Grade-betyg. Ränteintäkterna (kupongerna) i fonden återinvesteras (ackumuleras).

Den totala kostnadskvoten uppgår till 0,20 % p.a. Fonden replikerar resultatet för det underliggande indexet genom att köpa ett urval av de mest relevanta indexbeståndsdelarna (samplingsteknik). iShares Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF USD (Acc) har tillgångar på 116 miljoner GBP under förvaltning. ETF:en är äldre än 3 år och har sin hemvist i Irland.

Varför CRPA?

Diversifierad exponering mot globala företagsobligationer

Direktinvesteringar i företagsobligationer över sektorer (industri, allmännyttiga och finansiella företag)

Obligationsexponering med investeringsgrad

Investeringsmål

Fonden strävar efter att följa utvecklingen av ett index som består av företagsobligationer av investeringsklass från emittenter på tillväxtmarknader och utvecklade marknader.

Investeringsstrategi

Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate-index spårar företagsobligationer i amerikanska dollar utgivna av företag över hela världen. Alla löptider ingår. Betyg: Investment Grade.

Handla CRPA ETF

iShares Global Corporate Bond UCITS ETF USD (Acc) (CRPA ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad produkt som handlas på London Stock Exchange.

London Stock Exchange är en marknad som få svenska banker och nätmäklare erbjuder access till, men DEGIRO gör det.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURSXRB
London Stock ExchangeUSDCRPA

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BANK OF AMERICA CORP1.83
JPMORGAN CHASE & CO1.63
GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC/THE1.29
MORGAN STANLEY1.15
CITIGROUP INC1.13
WELLS FARGO & COMPANY1.12
VERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC0.97
AT&T INC0.95
APPLE INC0.84
HSBC HOLDINGS PLC0.78

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