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Keep the Pedal to the Metal
Keep the Pedal to the Metal. Those of you who recall the CB (citizens band) radio craze of the 1970s may recognize the following expression the era spawned: ”Keep the pedal to the metal.” Its fundamental meaning — push ahead with determination — comes to mind as I consider what I believe is the optimal municipal bond strategy at this time.
Following recent and very thoughtful guest contributions to Muni Nation, I thought it’s time I provide my outlook for the remainder of the second quarter. Firstly, I think it is important to take note of the municipal market’s performance thus far in 2016 (through April 29). Returns were positive each of the last four months; the market is up 2.42% year-to-date1. The eight consecutive months of cash inflows into muni funds that helped fuel these gains highlight the key fundamentals supporting this market: a modest increase in new bond supply, the historically low default rate2 underlying the majority of issues, and the taxable equivalent yields compared to many taxable alternatives.
(click to enlarge)
Source: Barclays. For illustrative purposes only. Index performance is not indicative of fund performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Municipal index yields reflect taxable equivalent yields, based on the highest U.S. Federal income tax rate of 39.6%. If an investor were in a lower tax bracket, the yields would have been lower.
Additionally, I believe that yields should hold at or near current levels even in the unlikely event that the Federal Reserve pushes interest rates higher before the end of the year. I would continue to expect munis to deliver relatively favorable returns.
Invoking the title of this piece, I suggest again: keep the pedal to the metal. Municipals can continue to form an important part of an investor’s core strategy in the near future. Investors should not deviate from employing municipal bonds, both tactically and strategically, in their portfolios. Stay the course.
Post Specific Disclosures
1Source: Barclays. Based on the Barclays Municipal Bond Index. The index is considered representative of the broad market for investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a maturity of at least one year.
2Source: Moody’s Investors Services.
Yield to Worst measures the lowest of either yield-to-maturity or yield-to-call date on every possible call date.
Taxable equivalent yields are used by investors to compare yields on taxable and tax-exempt securities after accounting for federal income taxes. TEY represents the yield a taxable bond investment would have to earn in order to match, after deducting federal income taxes, the yield available on a tax-exempt municipal bond investment. TEY = Tax-Free Municipal Bond Yield/(1 -Tax Rate).
The graph displays the yields of the Barclays Municipal Bond Index and Barclays High-Yield Municipal Index on a tax-equivalent return basis and compares such yields to other asset classes as represented by the indexes described below. Fixed income investments have interest rate risk, which refers to the risk that bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise and vice versa. U.S. government bonds are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States government. Municipal and corporate bonds are not guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the United States and carry the credit risk of the issuer. Municipal bonds are exempt from federal taxes and often state and local taxes. U.S. Treasuries are exempt from state and local taxes, but subject to federal taxes. Prices of bonds change in response to factors such as interest rates and issuer’s credit worthiness, among others.
The Barclays Municipal Bond Index is considered representative of the broad market for investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a maturity of at least one year. The Barclays High-Yield Municipal Bond Index is considered representative of the broad market for below investment grade, tax-exempt bonds with a maturity of at least one year. The Barclays U.S. Corporate Bond Index is considered representative of the broad market for investment grade U.S. corporate bonds with a maturity of at least one year. The Barclays U.S. Treasury Index is considered representative of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury with a remaining maturity of at least one year.
by James Colby, Portfolio Manager
James Colby has more than 30 years of fixed income experience. Portfolio Manager of Municipal Bond ETFs at VanEck, he is known for his perspective on the U.S. municipal bond marketplace.
IMPORTANT MUNI NATION® DISCLOSURE
This content is published in the United States for residents of specified countries. Investors are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this content. Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
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Please note this post represents the views of the author and these views may change at any time and from time to time. MUNI NATION is not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Current market conditions may not continue. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck. MUNI NATION is a trademark of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
All indices listed are unmanaged indices and do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a fund. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Any discussion of specific securities mentioned in the commentary is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation to buy these securities.
Municipal bonds are subject to risks related to litigation, legislation, political change, conditions in underlying sectors or in local business communities and economies, bankruptcy or other changes in the issuer’s financial condition, and/or the discontinuance of taxes supporting the project or assets or the inability to collect revenues for the project or from the assets. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. Additional risks include credit, interest rate, call, reinvestment, tax, market and lease obligation risk. High-yield municipal bonds are subject to greater risk of loss of income and principal than higher-rated securities, and are likely to be more sensitive to adverse economic changes or individual municipal developments than those of higher-rated securities. Municipal bonds may be less liquid than taxable bonds.
The income generated from some types of municipal bonds may be subject to state and local taxes as well as to federal taxes on capital gains and may also be subject to alternative minimum tax.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Bonds and bond funds will decrease in value as interest rates rise. An investor should consider the investment objective, risks, charges and expenses of a fund carefully before investing. To obtain a prospectus and summary prospectus, which contain this and other information, call 800.826.2333. Please read the prospectus and summary prospectus carefully before investing.
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• Growing Mainstream Adoption of Digital Assets: Institutional investors and major asset managers are increasingly incorporating digital assets like Bitcoin into their portfolios, as evidenced by recent filings and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Despite their current small market share, these investments reflect a broader trend towards mainstream acceptance
• Impact on Portfolio Performance: The inclusion of Bitcoin in portfolio optimizations, using strategies such as Maximum Sharpe Ratio and Risk Parity, has shown to improve the risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional portfolios. Portfolios optimized with Bitcoin not only offer higher returns for the additional risk taken but also present a wider range of efficient risk-return combinations
• Optimal Allocation Recommendations: Empirical studies suggest that even a small allocation to digital assets, specifically between 2% to 3% in broader asset mixes and up to 4% to 6% in more focused digital asset portfolios, significantly enhances portfolio performance without adversely impacting overall risk profiles
Gradually, then suddenly, as they say, digital assets are becoming mainstream.
The biggest asset managers in the world have launched spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US this year and adoption among institutional investors is rising rapidly.
Major financial institutions like Franklin Templeton themselves have just recently disclosed significant investments into Bitcoin ETFs via their latest 13F filings.
Institutional hedge funds that manage money for Ivy League university endowments have disclosed multi-million Dollar holdings. Stanford university’s Blyth Fund has recently disclosed that they hold around 7% allocation in Bitcoin ETFs.
Nonetheless, at the time of writing, US Bitcoin ETFs only account for approximately 0.6% of the overall size of the US ETF market based on data provided by ICI.
In Europe, Bitcoin ETPs also only comprise a tiny fraction of the 11 trn EUR UCITS market of only 0.05%, according to our calculations based on Bloomberg data.
In general, we expect the relative size of digital assets to increase further as even small allocations to digital assets are bound to increase portfolio risk-adjusted returns significantly as demonstrated in our latest deep dive on Bitcoin.
But what is the optimal allocation to Bitcoin and digital assets in general?
What is the optimal allocation to digital assets?
Most empirical portfolio studies usually look at how a classical 60/40 portfolio comprising of 60% allocation in stocks and 40% allocation in bonds responds to a gradual increase in digital asset allocation.
In our previous digital asset study, we did a similar exercise by investigating the effect of increases in digital asset allocation on overall portfolio risk and return metrics.
Since digital assets generally exhibit a higher risk-adjusted return (“Sharpe Ratio”) than other traditional asset classes, a marginal increase in allocation usually leads to an increase in overall portfolio risk-adjusted returns.
However, most institutional asset managers don’t employ a 60/40 portfolio in the first place because of high portfolio volatility and the dominance of the equity allocation for the whole portfolio’s risk-return profile.
In fact, most institutional asset managers in practice allocate based on optimized risk metrics such as portfolio Sharpe Ratio or portfolio volatility which is why we perform a similar exercise here.
In a first step, we looked at optimized multiasset portfolios comprising of global stocks (MSCI World AC), global bonds (Bloomberg Global Aggregate USD-hedged), and commodities (Bloomberg Commodity Index).
More specifically, we optimized these portfolios based on the following approaches:
• Minimum Variance/Volatility
• Maximum Sharpe Ratio
• Equal risk contribution (Risk parity)
The Minimum Variance approach tries to minimize the average portfolio volatility.
The Maximum Sharpe Ratio approach tries to maximize the ratio between average portfolio return (minus a risk-free return) and the corresponding average volatility. The Equal risk contribution or Risk Parity approach varies the respective portfolio weights until every asset has an identical relative contribution to the overall portfolio volatility.
In a second step, we added Bitcoin to the set of potential assets into the optimization. Our period of investigation (July 2010 – May 2024) was constrained by the fact that reliable market prices for Bitcoin only exist since 2010 as it is still a relatively young asset.
Here are the results for the different optimizations. The upper panel excludes Bitcoin while the lower panel includes Bitcoin in the optimization:
Several observations are in order:
Firstly, the minimum variance approach excludes Bitcoin completely since Bitcoin generally exhibits a higher level of volatility than the other assets.
Secondly, the maximum Sharpe Ratio approach excludes commodities in the traditional portfolio but includes Bitcoin in the new portfolio. The Bitcoin allocation is made largely at the expense of the stock allocation.
Lastly, the risk parity approach also includes Bitcoin at the expense of all other asset classes.
Furthermore, a comparison between the historical performances of the traditional portfolios that exclude Bitcoin and those that include Bitcoin reveals that the max Sharpe Ratio and the Risk Parity (ERC) portfolio were able to significantly outperform the Minimum Variance portfolio which didn’t allocate to Bitcoin at all.
It is also important to highlight that the Risk Parity portfolio with Bitcoin even exhibited a smaller maximum drawdown than the Minimum Variance portfolio without Bitcoin. In other words, the increase in portfolio volatility was largely due to an increase in positive upside volatility.
Moreover, investors are over-proportionately rewarded with higher returns for unit of additional risk as the risk-adjusted returns (“Sharpe Ratio”) increase significantly by adding Bitcoin.
The Sharpe Ratios for optimized portfolios with Bitcoin are even significantly higher than for optimized portfolios without Bitcoin.
In fact, by including Bitcoin and digital assets into their portfolio optimization, the universe of potential multiasset portfolios increases vastly.
Asset managers are not only enabled to provide investors with more efficient portfolios, i.e. higher risk-adjusted returns, but also provide investors with a much larger set of risk-return combinations compared to traditional portfolios that only include stocks, bonds, and commodities.
So far so good. What about other digital assets?
We also applied the same portfolio optimization approaches to a basket of the top 20 digital assets based on the MSCI Global Digital Assets Select 20 Capped Index.
–> The optimal % allocation is even higher in case of the Maximum Sharpe Ratio and Risk Parity portfolio optimization.
It is important to note that the period of investigation (November 2019 – May 2024) is much smaller due to the fact that younger digital assets within the top 20 digital assets like Solana or Ethereum have a smaller track record than Bitcoin.
All in all, the abovementioned results imply that even a small allocation to digital assets can have very positive effects on risk-adjusted returns without compromising the risk characteristics of the portfolios.
While highly risk-averse investors should probably avoid digital assets, the optimal allocation based on the Max Sharpe Ratio and Risk Parity approach appears to be between 2% and 3% for the full sample with bitcoin and between 4% and 6% for the smaller sample with a basket of the top 20 digital assets.
The results generally support our previous findings that we presented here.
Most portfolio optimization approaches also include digital assets within the optimal portfolio allocation which demonstrates that any modern portfolio approach that doesn’t include digital assets like Bitcoin is probably sub-optimal.
We recommend that agile asset managers familiarise themselves with this emerging asset class for the benefit of their clients and to remain competitive.
Bottom Line
• Growing Mainstream Adoption of Digital Assets: Institutional investors and major asset managers are increasingly incorporating digital assets like Bitcoin into their portfolios, as evidenced by recent filings and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. Despite their current small market share, these investments reflect a broader trend towards mainstream acceptance
• Impact on Portfolio Performance: The inclusion of Bitcoin in portfolio optimizations, using strategies such as Maximum Sharpe Ratio and Risk Parity, has shown to improve the risk-adjusted returns compared to traditional portfolios. Portfolios optimized with Bitcoin not only offer higher returns for the additional risk taken but also present a wider range of efficient risk-return combinations
• Optimal Allocation Recommendations: Empirical studies suggest that even a small allocation to digital assets, specifically between 2% to 3% in broader asset mixes and up to 4% to 6% in more focused digital asset portfolios, significantly enhances portfolio performance without adversely impacting overall risk profiles
To read our Crypto Market Compass in full, please click the button below:
I samarbete med Core Foundation lanserar Valour Inc världens första avkastningsbärande Bitcoin (BTC) ETP, Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) SEK ETP, och erbjuder investerare exponering för Bitcoin med en avkastning på 5,65 %
Lansering av världens första avkastningsbärande Bitcoin (BTC) ETP: Valour Inc. och Core Foundation samarbetar för att introducera världens första avkastningsbärande Bitcoin (BTC) ETP på Nordic Growth Market (NGM) börsen med en förvaltningsavgift på 1,9 %, erbjuder investerare exponering mot Bitcoin med en avkastning på 5,65 %.
Powering Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) SEK ETP med Core Blockchain: Core blockchain-nätverket, som drivs av Bitcoin, utgör grunden för Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) SEK ETP (ISIN: CH1213604536), vilket ger Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) kompatibilitet och den innovativa Satoshi Plus konsensusmekanismen för att förbättra säkerheten och skalbarheten.
Förenklad investering med Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) SEK ETP: Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) SEK ETP effektiviserar Bitcoin-investeringar genom att delegera Bitcoins till Core-validerare, avkastningen tillskrivs nettotillgångsvärdet (NAV) på daglig basis. Denna innovativa produkt säkerställer förvaringskontroll och säkerhet samtidigt som den erbjuder investerare betydande avkastning utan att de behöver sälja eller handla med sina Bitcoin-innehav.
Valour, en ledande emittent av börshandlade produkter (”ETPs”) som ger förenklad tillgång till digitala tillgångar, har lanserat världens första avkastningsbärande Bitcoin (BTC) ETP i samarbete med Core Foundation, en organisation dedikerad till utvecklingen av Core blockchain-nätverk (”Core Chain”). Detta erbjudande ger investerare exponering för Bitcoin med en avkastning på 5,65 % på Nordic Growth Market (NGM)-börsen.
Core blockchain-nätverket är en Bitcoin-driven lager-ett blockkedja för EVM-kompatibla smarta kontrakt. Med 50 % av Bitcoin-mining-hashkraften som bidrar till Cores säkerhet i utbyte mot att låsa upp Bitcoin-verktyg och belöningar, är Core Chain den mest Bitcoin-anpassade EVM-blockkedjan (BTCfi, Bitcoin staking och mer).
Handeln med Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) SEK ETP (ISIN: CH1213604536) började den 10 maj 2024 med en förvaltningsavgift på 1,9 %, vilket markerar ett historiskt ögonblick som världens första i sitt slag avkastningsbärande Bitcoin ETP. Detta innovativa erbjudande tillåter investerare att få exponering mot Bitcoin samtidigt som de får en anmärkningsvärd avkastning på 5,65 %, allt utan att behöva sälja eller handla Bitcoin direkt.
Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) SEK ETP förenklar investeringar i världens mest kända digitala tillgång, vilket gör det enklare och säkrare för investerare att ta del av Bitcoins potentiella uppsida. Avkastningen tillskrivs nettotillgångsvärdet (NAV) på daglig basis, vilket ger investerare avkastning utan att behöva sälja eller handla med sina Bitcoin-innehav.
Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) SEK ETP genererar avkastning genom att delegera Bitcoins till en validator på Core Chain genom icke-depåbelagd, infödd Bitcoin-insats. Insatta Bitcoins får insatsbelöningar i form av CORE-tokens, som sedan återinvesteras i produkten.
Core Chain, den underliggande blockkedjan, är en Bitcoin-driven, decentraliserad, säker och skalbar lager 1-blockkedja som är kompatibel med Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). Det stöds av Bitcoins Proof of Work (PoW) genom en unik konsensusmekanism känd som ”Satoshi Plus”. Denna mekanism gör det möjligt för Bitcoin-gruvarbetare att delegera sina PoW (DPoW) till Core-validerare utan att påverka deras framtida Bitcoin-belöningar, och därigenom låsa upp potentialen för Bitcoin-säkrade decentraliserade applikationer.
Trots att man engagerar sig i Bitcoin-insats, förblir säkerheten kompromisslös. Förvarskontroll upprätthålls medan avkastning genereras. Bitcoins satsas genom en specifik typ av inbyggd Bitcoin-transaktion som kallas en ”insatstransaktion”, som inkluderar en låsningsperiod och Core Chain-insatsdetaljer som Core Validator och Core-belöningsadressen. Under låsningsperioden kan Bitcoins inte överföras eller skäras ned. Endast ägaren kan överföra Bitcoins när låsningsperioden löper ut.
”Vi är glada över att introducera världens första avkastningsbärande Bitcoin ETP, som erbjuder investerare en oöverträffad möjlighet att få exponering mot Bitcoin samtidigt som de tjänar en betydande avkastning”, säger Olivier Roussy Newton, VD för DeFi Technologies. ”Valour Bitcoin Staking (BTC) ETP förkroppsligar vårt engagemang för innovation i det digitala tillgångsutrymmet, vilket ger investerare ett sömlöst och säkert sätt att delta i Bitcoins tillväxtpotential samtidigt som det erbjuder en ny investeringsväg för att engagera sig med världens främsta kryptovaluta.”
”Core Foundation är glada över att samarbeta med Valor Inc. för att lansera världens första avkastningsbärande Bitcoin ETP. Denna banbrytande produkt ger BTCfi till en bredare publik och hållbar avkastning till Bitcoin-innehavare. Investerare kan nu tjäna avkastning samtidigt som de behåller exponeringen mot Bitcoin. Detta möjliggörs av icke-depåbelagd Bitcoin-insats som hjälper till att säkra Core-blockkedjan. Core Foundation är stolta över att vara det första och mest pålitliga ekosystemet som driver dessa nya erbjudanden, vilket understryker Core Chains position som den mest Bitcoin-justerade blockkedjan, säger Core-bidragsgivaren Brendon Sedo.
Om Core Chain
Core blockchain-nätverket är en Bitcoin-driven lager-ett blockkedja för EVM-kompatibla smarta kontrakt. Med 50 % av Bitcoin-mining-hashkraften som bidrar till Cores säkerhet i utbyte mot att låsa upp Bitcoin-verktyg och belöningar, är Core den mest Bitcoin-justerade EVM-blockkedjan (BTCfi, Bitcoin staking och mer). Detta genombrott har samlat en massiv community av 2,2 miljoner Twitter-anhängare och 250 000 Discord-medlemmar, vilket har översatts till miljontals Core-användare, över 15 miljoner unika adresser och 230 miljoner transaktioner sedan huvudnätets lansering i januari 2023.
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Valour Inc. lanserar världens första avkastningsbärande Bitcoin (BTC) ETP
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