Följ oss

Nyheter

Markets contained following Trump upset

Publicerad

den

Markets contained following Trump upset The market calm that has followed Trump’s victory is unlikely to persist in the medium term.

Trade Idea – FX Weekly – Markets contained following Trump upset

  • The market calm that has followed Trump’s victory is unlikely to persist in the medium term.
  • Political risks remain elevated in Europe and the shock result could garner momentum for anti-establishment populist parties ahead of key elections.
  • Safe haven assets and currencies are likely to remain well supported as uncertainty continues to characterise the financial landscape.

Against the odds

In a similar set up to the EU referendum, Donald Trump has managed to defy poll-based forecasts and betting odds to become the 45th president of the US. After capturing key electoral votes in swing states Florida and Ohio, Trump managed to secure victory in the early hours of Wednesday morning, shocking financial markets and sending risk assets tumbling. However in contrast to the aftermath of the EU referendum, the market moves that followed this shock result have been fairly muted (see Figure 1). Sharp rallies in safe havens assets during Asian trading hours were significantly tempered as a humble victory speech by Trump went some way to assuage market concerns and foster hopes of a more moderate President-elect. In the medium term, we do not expect the calm that has currently descended on markets to last, as elevated political uncertainty in the US and Europe sees risk-off sentiment dominate trading. This environment should continue to support the price of gold and keep safe haven currencies such as the JPY and CHF well bid against the US Dollar.

Policies unknown

The hope for many has always been that Trump’s controversial pledges made during his presidential campaign were merely aimed at garnering public support and were not a true reflection of his underlying political goals. His victory speech went some way towards this idea and assured investors of his intentions to pursue a more mainstream line as US president. However, the issue remains that aside from infrastructure spending, a considerable portion of his policies remain somewhat ambiguous. Should Trump emerge committed to protectionist policies and discriminatory immigration screening (ideas touted during his campaign), we would likely see an adverse market reaction as both policies would likely inhibit domestic and global growth.

Trump has also been a vocal critic of US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Janet Yellen, claiming that low interest rates have only been kept in place for as long as they have due to political influences. Should he promote a more hawkish approach to monetary policy in combination with his planned fiscal expansion, then in longer term the US Dollar is likely to receive support as long term US yields climb. However, for the moment this remains uncertain.

Populist contagion

Following Trump’s surprise victory it was reported that Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right Front National party, was one of the first to congratulate the Republican candidate on his success. While this has no significance in isolation, it is an anecdotal reminder that Trump’s victory was another win for the anti-establishment that also prevailed during the EU referendum. The wider concern is that momentum mounts for nationalist parties in mainland Europe ahead of key elections scheduled in the next year. Should we see the likes of the Front National, Alternative for Germany and Five Star party gain in the polls in Europe then we may see some weakness surface for the common currency.

Investors wishing to express the investment views outlined above may consider using the following ETF Securities ETPs:

Currency ETPs

GBP Base

ETFS Long CHF Short GBP (GBCH)
ETFS Short CHF Long GBP (CHGB)
ETFS Long JPY Short GBP (GBJP)
ETFS Short JPY Long GBP (JPGB)

EUR Base

ETFS Long CHF Short EUR (EUCH)
ETFS Short CHF Long EUR (SCHE)
ETFS Long JPY Short EUR (SJPS)
ETFS Short JPY Long EUR (SJPL)

USD Base

ETFS Long CHF Short USD (LCHF)
ETFS Short CHF Long USD (SCHF)
ETFS Long JPY Short USD (LJPY)
ETFS Short JPY Long USD (SJPY)

3x

ETFS 3x Long CHF Short EUR (ECH3)
ETFS 3x Short CHF Long EUR (CHE3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short EUR (EJP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long EUR (JPE3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short GBP (JPP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long GBP (SYP3)
ETFS 3x Long JPY Short USD (LJP3)
ETFS 3x Short JPY Long USD (SJP3)

5x

ETFS 5x Long CHF Short EUR (5CH3)
ETFS 5x Short CHF Long EUR (5CHE)
ETFS 5x Long JPY Short EUR (EJP5)
ETFS 5x Short JPY Long EUR (JPE5)

Basket

ETFS Bullish USD vs G10 Currency Basket Securities (LUSB)
ETFS Bearish USD vs G10 Currency basket Securities (SUSB)

Physical Gold

ETFS Physical Gold (PHAU)
Gold Bullion Securities (GBS)
ETFS EUR Daily Hedged Physical Gold (GBSE)
ETFS GBP Daily Hedged Physical Gold (GBSP)

Important Information

This communication has been provided by ETF Securities (UK) Limited (“ETFS UK”) which is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the “FCA”). The products discussed in this document are issued by ETFS Foreign Exchange Limited (“FXL”), Gold Bullion Securities Limited (“GBS”), ETFS Metal Securities Limited (“MSL”) and ETFS Hedged Metal Securities Limited (“HMSL”). FXL, GBS, MSL and HMSL are regulated by the Jersey Financial Services Commission.

Fortsätt läsa
Annons
Klicka för att kommentera

Skriv en kommentar

Din e-postadress kommer inte publiceras. Obligatoriska fält är märkta *

Nyheter

Playing the AI revolution through commodities and gold’s curious rally

Publicerad

den

“A single search query on Chat GPT consumes around 1500% more energy than a simple search google search. The overall energy amounts are marginal on their own. Even taken in aggregate, it is a blip in terms of total global energy demand. However, it is illustrative of the potential big increases in electricity demand that will come from the AI revolution.

“A single search query on Chat GPT consumes around 1500% more energy than a simple search google search. The overall energy amounts are marginal on their own. Even taken in aggregate, it is a blip in terms of total global energy demand. However, it is illustrative of the potential big increases in electricity demand that will come from the AI revolution.

“Over the past 20 years, the US has seen its electricity demand stagnate. While its economy has grown, it has been able to avoid the need to add electricity generation thanks to efficiency savings. But this is now changing, and a big reason is the boom in data centre demand, with AI datacentre demand in particular.

“For example, Virginia has one of the densest clusters of data centres in the US. Dominion, the utility company servicing the state, had previously forecast net energy to increase by 2.9% between 2022 and 2037. Now they forecast a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 4.4% between 2023 and 2028, principally due to energy demand from data centres. Similar patterns can be expected across the country.

“So, while many investors are chasing the AI theme through exposure to tech stocks, especially through big names such as Microsoft, it is also worth highlighting the materials or commodity angle — a literal picks and shovels approach.

“Nuclear energy will provide a key role in supplying the electricity for this expected boom in electricity demand, particularly given its zero-carbon credentials. We’ve already seen Amazon purchase a data centre situated next to a nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania for Amazon Web Services.

“With more nuclear energy generation, uranium will see greater demand. The uranium market is already tight with forecast deficits of supply vs demand. Primary uranium mine supply is significantly trailing demand, with a cumulative forecasted supply shortfall of approximately 1.5 billion pounds by 2040. This added component will put more pressure on the uranium price, to the benefit of the miners.

“But generating electricity is only one part of the story. At the same time, getting the electricity generated by nuclear energy to the end user requires transmission. That requires a lot of copper. A build of new data centres will require a buildout of copper-intensive transmission lines.

“As with uranium, the copper market is facing a supply deficit. Copper will be a key metal in the energy transition, with 2.5x more copper wiring in an EV vs a conventional car, while solar panels and wind turbines require grid expansions and upgrades. The additional demand for copper from the AI revolution and data centre build up simply adds to this.”

HANetf is the issuer of the Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF (U3O8), Sprott Junior Uranium Miners ETF (U8NJ) and the Sprott Copper Miners ESG-Screened UCITS ETF (ASWD).

Gold’s curious rally

“Gold has hit several new all-time-highs this year, breaching $2,431/oz. This has been driven by central bank buying, geopolitical-driven safe-haven buying, emerging market investment demand, as well as anticipation around forthcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts, albeit with declining expectations regarding the latter.

“But it is worth looking into some of these drivers themselves. Let’s start with anticipated rate cuts. Gold looks more attractive when interest rates are low or expected to be cut. Gold is a non-yielding asset, so it becomes more attractive the lower yields are on other assets such as bonds. So, with the year starting with expectations of several Federal Reserve rate cuts, gold came into focus.

“But the curious case of this year’s gold market rally is that, despite expectations around these rate cuts gradually receding, with more cautious language from the Fed and some less than positive inflation data prints, the gold rally has continued unabated.

“There are several reasons for this. First, the geopolitical climate is increasingly top of mind for investors. The war in Ukraine continues and we’ve seen a potentially dramatic escalation in the Middle East with Israel and Iran launching missile attacks on one another.

“At the same time, we’ve continued to see central banks buying gold for their reserves. This has principally, but not only, been driven by China. This is geopolitics related, as many see the Chinese central bank’s gold buying being driven by a movement among the BRICS countries towards de-dollarisation. But a key point here is that central banks are a potentially less price-sensitive buyer – their demand is driven by other strategic considerations.

“But while gold has rallied, gold ETF and ETC investors have been absent. This is not how it usually works. Inflows into gold ETFs and ETCs have historically been fairly well correlated with the gold price, but this year a gap opened up. US and European investors were selling gold while the price went up. However, latest data from the World Gold Council now shows that in March, there were slight positive inflows in gold ETFs among American investors. Europeans were still selling, but the uptick in gold ETFs in the US does potentially suggest a trend change.”

HANetf is issuer of The Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC (RM8U) and AuAg ESG Gold Mining UCITS ETF (ESGO).

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

ETBB ETF en utdelande fond som spårar Euro Stoxx 50

Publicerad

den

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) med ISIN FR0012740983, strävar efter att spåra EURO STOXX® 50-index. EURO STOXX® 50-indexet följer de 50 största företagen i euroområdet.

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) med ISIN FR0012740983, strävar efter att spåra EURO STOXX® 50-index. EURO STOXX® 50-indexet följer de 50 största företagen i euroområdet.

Den börshandlade fondens TER (total cost ratio) uppgår till 0,18 % p.a. ETFen replikerar resultatet av det underliggande indexet genom full replikering (köper alla indexbeståndsdelar). Utdelningarna i denna ETF delas ut till investerarna (Årligen).

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF har tillgångar på 144 miljoner euro under förvaltning. ETF lanserades den 27 juli 2015 och har sin hemvist i Frankrike.

Handla ETBB ETF

BNP Paribas Easy EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF (ETBB ETF) är en europeisk börshandlad fond. Denna fond handlas på flera olika börser, till exempel Deutsche Boerse Xetra och Euronext Paris.

Det betyder att det går att handla andelar i denna ETF genom de flesta svenska banker och Internetmäklare, till exempel DEGIRONordnet, Aktieinvest och Avanza.

Börsnoteringar

BörsValutaKortnamn
gettexEURETBB
Stuttgart Stock ExchangeEURETBB
Euronext ParisEURETBB
SIX Swiss ExchangeEURETBB
XETRAEURETBB

Fortsätt läsa

Nyheter

Ny råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt

Publicerad

den

Sedan i torsdags är en ny börshandlad fond utgiven av Legal & General Investment Management handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. Det är en råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt.

Sedan i torsdags är en ny börshandlad fond utgiven av Legal & General Investment Management handlas på Xetra och Börse Frankfurt. Det är en råvaru-ETF från L & G ger tillgång till den breda råvarusektorn via terminskontrakt.

L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced Commodities ex-Agriculture & Livestock UCITS ETF (XEXA) erbjuder investerare tillgång till prestanda för en korg av råvaror från energi-, industri- och ädelmetallsektorerna via terminskontrakt med olika förfallodatum. Sektorn för jordbruk och levande nötkreatur ingår inte.

ETFen är helt säkerställd. Eftersom terminskontrakt har en begränsad löptid stängs de vanligtvis före utgången och rullas över till ett nytt kontrakt med en senare löptid. Beroende på om det köpta terminskontraktet är billigare eller dyrare än det sålda terminskontraktet realiseras rullningsvinster eller rullningsförluster.

NamnISINAvgiftUtdelnings-
policy
Referens-
index
L&G Multi-Strategy Enhanced Commodities ex-Agriculture & Livestock UCITS ETFIE000MQ5XEW10,30%AckumulerandeBarclays Backwardation Tilt Multi-Strategy Ex-Agriculture & Livestock Capped TR Index

Produktutbudet i Deutsche Börses XTF-segment omfattar för närvarande totalt 2 157 ETFer. Med detta urval och en genomsnittlig månatlig handelsvolym på cirka 14 miljarder euro är Xetra den ledande handelsplatsen för ETFer i Europa.

Fortsätt läsa

Populära